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Human limits in machine learning: prediction of potato yield and disease using soil microbiome data
Abstract Background The preservation of soil health is a critical challenge in the 21st century due to its significant impact on agriculture, human health, and biodiversity. We provide one of the first comprehensive investigations into the predictive potential of machine learning models for understanding the connections between soil and biological phenotypes. We investigate an integrative framework performing accurate machine learning-based prediction of plant performance from biological, chemical, and physical properties of the soil via two models: random forest and Bayesian neural network. Results Prediction improves when we add environmental features, such as soil properties and microbial density, along with microbiome data. Different preprocessing strategies show that human decisions significantly impact predictive performance. We show that the naive total sum scaling normalization that is commonly used in microbiome research is one of the optimal strategies to maximize predictive power. Also, we find that accurately defined labels are more important than normalization, taxonomic level, or model characteristics. ML performance is limited when humans can’t classify samples accurately. Lastly, we provide domain scientists via a full model selection decision tree to identify the human choices that optimize model prediction power. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating diverse environmental features and careful data preprocessing in enhancing the predictive power of machine learning models for soil and biological phenotype connections. This approach can significantly contribute to advancing agricultural practices and soil health management.
Higher-order interaction effects among operating conditions and feedstocks shape reactor microbiomes and fatty acid production profiles
Arrested anaerobic digestion (AAD) offers a promising route for producing fatty acids (FAs) from organic residues, yet optimal conditions for selectively generating medium-chain fatty acids (MCFAs) remain poorly defined. Here, we systematically evaluated the main and interaction effects of pH (5, 7, 9), feedstock (food waste, manure), temperature (35 and 45 °C), and inoculum source on microbiome composition and FA production. Anaerobic digester sludge and a novel bison rumen inoculum were compared. Significant higher-order interactions among operating parameters governed FA profiles and microbiome structure. Butyric acid production was driven by a three-way interaction among pH, feedstock, and temperature (p < 0.001), with maximum concentrations achieved in food waste reactors at pH 5.0 and 35 °C (1.2 ± 0.1 g L −1 with sludge and 1.1 ± 0.3 g L −1 with rumen). MCFA production exhibited significant four-way interactions (p < 0.1 to p < 0.001). At 45 °C and pH 5.0, inoculum source tuned MCFA selectivity: sludge favored pentanoic acid (0.4 ± 0.1 g L −1 ), whereas rumen favored hexanoic and heptanoic acids (up to 0.4 ± 0.2 g L −1 ). Manure reactors produced < 0.2 g L −1 MCFAs under all conditions. Genera, including Megasphaera, Prevotella, and Lactobacillus, were associated with production of specific MCFAs. PICRUSt2-based pathway predictions were consistent with MCFA production patterns and suggested a potential role for lactic acid–driven chain elongation pathways. This study provides insights into how interacting operating conditions shape AAD microbiomes, their FA profiles, and advances the trajectory of research aimed at engineering robust and controllable microbiomes for waste valorization.
Microbiome dynamics in the congregate environment of U.S. Army Infantry training
Within military training and operational environments, individuals from diverse backgrounds share common spaces, follow structured routines and diets, and engage in physically demanding tasks. While there has been interest in leveraging microbiome features to predict and improve military health and performance, the longitudinal convergence of microbiomes in such constrained environments has not been established. To assess the degree of microbiome convergence, we performed shotgun metagenomic sequencing on swab samples from a military trainee cohort. Samples were taken across four different body sites, three timepoints, and two spatially distinct platoons. We observed evidence of convergence in one platoon, whereby similarity in microbiome composition increased over time, with numerous differentially abundant species. We found no indication of strain transfer between individuals, suggesting that convergence was influenced by external environmental factors, diet, and lifestyle. Microbial shifts observed in the convergence process included a decrease in fungal species, such as Malassezia restricta in nasal cavities, and a decrease in Prevotella species at inguinal regions across time. Shifts in multiple Corynebacterium species were also observed with varying magnitudes depending on the body site. Overall, we provide preliminary evidence of convergence of host microbial communities in military-associated environments that were distinguishable using shotgun metagenomic sequencing approaches. The data presented here on microbiome convergence, dynamics, and stability may inform risk-based mitigation in congregate military settings facilitating development of targeted microbial, dietary, or other interventions to optimize health and performance of military populations.
Microbiome Adaptation Could Amplify Modeled Projections of Global Soil Carbon Loss With Climate Warming
Warming alters soil microbial traits through ecological and evolutionary processes, directly influencing the decomposition of organic matter, which significantly affects global soil carbon emissions. Yet, soil carbon models largely ignore these processes and their implications for global responses to warming. Here, we incorporate eco-evolutionary theory into a mechanistic model describing microbial soil carbon decomposition to address the question of whether such processes could have consequential effects on climate carbon feedbacks globally. We assume that a key trait of microbes, their resource allocation to production of exoenzymes (which facilitate decomposition of organic matter)—is optimized to environmental temperatures by natural selection. We find that eco-evolutionary optimization results in microbes allocating more resources to enzyme production under warming. When applied at the global scale, eco-evolutionary optimization enhances the biological realism of soil carbon models and significantly amplifies global soil carbon loss by 2100. Our results highlight the significant potential of microbial eco-evolutionary responses to influence carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, and motivate an urgent need for more comprehensive data to accurately quantify the adaptive potential of microbiomes in response to climate change.
MicroFisher: Fungal taxonomic classification for metatranscriptomic and metagenomic data using multiple short hypervariable markers
AbstractProfiling the taxonomic and functional composition of microbes using metagenomic (MG) and metatranscriptomic (MT) sequencing is advancing our understanding of microbial functions. However, the sensitivity and accuracy of microbial classification using genome– or core protein-based approaches, especially the classification of eukaryotic organisms, is limited by the availability of genomes and the resolution of sequence databases. To address this, we propose the MicroFisher, a novel approach that applies multiple hypervariable marker genes to profile fungal communities from MGs and MTs. This approach utilizes the hypervariable regions of ITS and large subunit (LSU) rRNA genes for fungal identification with high sensitivity and resolution. Simultaneously, we propose a computational pipeline (MicroFisher) to optimize and integrate the results from classifications using multiple hypervariable markers. To test the performance of our method, we applied MicroFisher to the synthetic community profiling and found high performance in fungal prediction and abundance estimation. In addition, we also used MGs from forest soil and MTs of root eukaryotic microbes to test our method and the results showed that MicroFisher provided more accurate profiling of environmental microbiomes compared to other classification tools. Overall, MicroFisher serves as a novel pipeline for classification of fungal communities from MGs and MTs.
Microbiomes of frozen blood plasma samples reveal potential pathogens in wild birds and rodents
The lack of genomic data on pathogens from wildlife severely limits our ability to track transmission patterns and trace the origins of an outbreak. There are currently millions of wildlife samples in biobanks around the world, including blood samples. Blood has traditionally been viewed as a sterile environment in healthy individuals, but recent evidence suggests that this is not the case, especially for wild animals. Our goal was to determine whether frozen plasma samples can be surveyed using 16S sequencing to provide information about potential hosts for pathogens for a more complete understanding of disease systems. We sequenced blood plasma from wild North American deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ) and American kestrels ( Falco sparverius ) that were cryogenically stored for 7 and 13 years, respectively, and compared two DNA extraction kits. The kestrel samples contained a very high number of reads that could not be identified to phylum compared to the mouse samples. The two kits differed in the phyla and genera that were detected, and the Zymo kit, which is optimized for plasma and serum, produced more high-quality reads for both kestrel and mouse samples. We identified several pathogenic genera, including Mycoplasma, Escherichia-Shigella , and Bartonella . Sequencing blood samples for pathogens could potentially have broad applications for identifying important reservoir hosts for pathogen transmission and provide a reduced set of species on which to follow up.
Biomanufacturing and Scale-Up: Pathways to Biochemicals, Biofuels, and Biomaterials
Advancing the bioeconomy requires the development of large-scale microbial bioprocesses capable of converting waste carbon streams into biofuels, biochemicals, and biomaterials at industrially relevant scales. While biomanufacturing has been successfully demonstrated at the laboratory scale for a wide range of chemicals, only a few have reached industrial-scale production. This is partly due to the inherent complexity of microbial systems, which rely on living cells with intricate metabolic pathways that are highly sensitive to environmental changes, making large-scale production difficult to optimize and predict. As a result, scaling-up bioprocesses remains a high-stakes challenge that requires deeper exploration. This involves integrating feedstock and microbial selection, upstream and downstream processes, and computational modelling, among other research efforts. Bulk and specialty chemicals derived from biological processes also face competition from fossil-based production routes, which have been refined through decades of technological advancements. While biologically derived molecules may offer more environmentally friendly production pathways than traditional chemical manufacturing, their widespread adoption depends on achieving cost parity-or superiority-relative to fossil-based methods. This emphasizes the importance of holistic research, including techno-economic analyses and life cycle assessments, to ensure both economic viability and environmental sustainability. This editorial and special issue explores state-of-the-art strategies for converting waste carbon sources into valuable products. It discusses how enzymes, single microbes (e.g., extremophiles), and microbiomes (e.g., through division of labor) can be integrated with upstream and downstream process innovations-such as consolidated bioprocessing and in situ product recovery-to improve the efficiency and scalability of biomanufacturing. The editorial further highlights the role of computational modelling in understanding, predicting, and controlling bioprocess performance across scales, and concludes by emphasizing the importance of techno-economic modelling to identify technologies that can move to market.