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Temperature optimum for marsh resilience and carbon accumulation revealed in a whole ecosystem warming experiment

Coastal marshes are globally important, carbon dense ecosystems simultaneously maintained and threatened by sea-level rise. Warming temperatures may increase wetland plant productivity and organic matter accumulation, but temperature-modulated feedbacks between productivity and decomposition make it difficult to assess how wetlands and their thick, organic rich soils will respond to climate warming. Here, we actively increased aboveground plant-surface and below-ground soil temperatures in two marsh plant communities, and found that a moderate amount of warming (1.7°C above ambient temperatures) consistently maximized root growth, marsh elevation gain, and below-ground carbon accumulation. Marsh elevation loss observed at higher temperatures was associated with increased carbon mineralization and increased microtopographic heterogeneity, a potential early warning signal of marsh drowning. Here, maximized elevation and below-ground carbon accumulation for moderate warming scenarios uniquely suggest linkages between metabolic theory of individuals and landscape-scale ecosystem resilience and function, but our work indicates nonpermanent benefits as global temperatures continue to rise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Topography on Tropical Forest Structure Depend on Climate Context

Topography affects abiotic conditions which can influence the structure, function, and dynamics of ecological communities. An increasing number of studies have demonstrated biological consequences of fine-scale topographic heterogeneity but we have a limited understanding of how We merged high-resolution (1 sq. meter) data on topography and canopy height derived from airborne lidar with ground-based data from 15 forest plots in Puerto Rico distributed along a precipitation gradient spanning ca. 800 to 3,500 mm yr(exp -1). Ground-based data included species composition, estimated above-ground biomass (AGB), and two key functional traits (wood density and leaf mass per area, LMA) that reflect resource-use strategies and a trade-off between hydraulic safety and hydraulic efficiency. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate how the interaction between topography climate is related to metrics of forest structure (i.e., canopy height and AGB), as well as taxonomic and functional alpha- and beta-diversity. Fine-scale topography (characterized with the topographic wetness index, TWI) significantly affected forest structure and the strength (and in some cases direction) of these effects varied across the precipitation gradient. In all plots, canopy height increased with topographic wetness but the effect was much stronger in dry compared to wet forest plots. In dry forest plots, topographically wetter microsites also had higher levels of AGB but in wet forest plots, topographically drier microsites had higher AGB. Fine-scale topography influenced functional composition but had only weak or non-significant effects on taxonomic and functional alpha- and beta-diversity. For instance, community-weighted wood density followed a similar pattern to AGB across plots. We also found a marginally significant association between variation of wood density and topographic heterogeneity that depended on climate context. Synthesis: The effects of fine-scale topographic heterogeneity on tropical forest structure and composition depend on the climate context. Our study demonstrates how a stronger integration of topographic heterogeneity across precipitation gradients could improve estimates of forest structure and biomass, and may provide insight to the ways that topography might mediate species responses to drought and climate change.

Tropical dry forest↗

Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

In the past three decades, an abrupt, pan-Arctic acceleration of ice wedge melting has transformed tundra landscapes, spurring the formation of hummock-like features known as high-centered polygons (HCPs). This rapid geomorphic transition profoundly alters regional hydrology and influences surface emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 . In Arctic Alaska, most recent instances of ice wedge degradation have arrested within 15–20 years of inception, stabilizing HCP microtopography. However, feedbacks between ground surface deformation and permafrost stability are incompletely understood, limiting our capacity to predict trajectories of landscape evolution in a still warmer future. In this work, we use field data from a site near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, to develop a modeling-based framework for assessing the strength of positive (i.e., exacerbating) feedbacks on ice wedge degradation, focusing on the importance of heterogeneity in surface drainage and microtopographic conditions. Our simulations suggest that, when troughs are narrow, positive feedbacks on ice wedge melting (associated with thermokarst pool formation) are relatively weak. Positive feedbacks are markedly stronger beneath wide troughs, such as those that form above older, larger ice wedges. Seasonal thaw abruptly accelerates once a talik begins to form beneath wide and deep thermokarst pools. Once a talik initiates, winter severity and snowpack thickness increase in importance as predictors of thaw intensity in summer. Our results indicate that meter-scale heterogeneity in polygonal microtopography potentially exerts strong, nonlinear controls on thermokarst trajectories. These findings are useful for predicting future thermokarst dynamics and for interpreting the results from coarser-resolution land surface models operating at greater spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating Microtopographic and Soil Controls on a Mountainous Meadow Plant Community Using High-Resolution Remote Sensing and Surface Geophysical Data

Our study aims to explore the microtopographic controls that dictate the heterogeneity of plant communities in a mountainous floodplain-hillslope system, using remote sensing and surface geophysical techniques. Working within a lower montane floodplain-hillslope study site (750 m × 750 m) in the Upper Colorado River Basin, we developed a new data fusion framework, based on machine learning and feature engineering, that exploits remote sensing optical and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to estimate the distribution of key plant meadow communities at submeter resolution. We collected surface electrical resistivity tomography data to explore the variability in soil properties along a floodplain-hillslope transect at 0.50-m resolution and extracted LiDAR-derived metrics to model the rapid change in microtopography. Furthermore, we investigated the covariability among the estimated plant community distributions, soil information, and topographic metrics. Results show that our framework estimated the distribution of nine plant communities with higher accuracy (87% versus 80% overall; 85% versus 60% for shrubs) compared to conventional classification approaches. Analysis of the covariabilities reveals a strong correlation between plant community distribution, soil electric conductivity, and slope, indicating that soil moisture is a primary control on heterogeneous spatial distribution. At the same time, microtopography plays an important role in creating particular ecosystem niches for some of the communities. Such relationships could be exploited to provide information about the spatial variability of soil properties. This highly transferable framework can be employed within long-term monitoring to capture community-specific physiological responses to perturbations, offering the possibility of bridging local plot-scale observations with large landscape monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topography and canopy cover influence soil organic carbon composition and distribution across a forested hillslope in the discontinuous permafrost zone

Abstract Topography and canopy cover influence ground temperature in warming permafrost landscapes, yet soil temperature heterogeneity introduced by mesotopographic slope positions, microtopographic differences in vegetation cover, and the subsequent impact of contrasting temperature conditions on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics are understudied. Buffering of permafrost‐affected soils against warming air temperatures in boreal forests can reflect surface soil characteristics (e.g., thickness of organic material) as well as the degree and type of canopy cover (e.g., open cover vs. closed cover). Both landscape and soil properties interact to determine meso‐ and microscale heterogeneity of ground warming. We sampled a hillslope catena transect in a discontinuous permafrost zone near Fairbanks, Alaska, to test the small‐scale (1 to 3 m) impacts of slope position and cover type on soil organic matter composition. Mineral active layer samples were collected from backslope, low backslope, and footslope positions at depths spanning 19 to 60 cm. We examined soil mineralogical composition, soil moisture, total carbon and nitrogen content, and organic mat thickness in conjunction with an assessment of SOC composition using Fourier‐transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT‐ICR‐MS). Soils in the footslope position had a higher relative contribution of lignin‐like compounds, whereas backslope soils had more aliphatic and condensed aromatic compounds as determined using FT‐ICR‐MS. The effect of open versus closed tree canopy cover varied with the slope position. On the backslope, we found higher oxidation of molecules under open cover than closed cover, indicating an effect of warmer soil temperature on decomposition. Little to no effect of the canopy was observed in soils at the footslope position, which we attributed, in part, to the strong impact of soil moisture content in SOC dynamics in the water‐gathering footslope position. The thin organic mat under open cover on the backslope position may have contributed to differences in soil temperature and thus SOC oxidation under open and closed canopies. Here, the thinner organic mat did not appear to buffer the underlying soil against warm season air temperatures and thus increased SOC decomposition as indicated by the higher oxidation of SOC molecules and a lower contribution of simple molecules under open cover than the closed canopy sites. Our findings suggest that the role of canopy cover in SOC dynamics varies as a function of landscape position and soil properties, namely, organic mat thickness and soil moisture. Condition‐specific heterogeneity of SOC composition under open and closed canopy cover highlights the protective effect of canopy cover for soils on backslope positions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topography and canopy cover influence soil organic carbon composition and distribution across a forested hillslope in the discontinuous permafrost zone

This dataset contains data used for the paper "Topography and canopy cover influence soil organic carbon composition and distribution across a forested hillslope in the discontinuous permafrost zone". The Related References field will be updated with a full citation when available. Topography and canopy cover influence ground temperature in warming permafrost landscapes, yet soil temperature heterogeneity introduced by meso-topographic slope positions, microtopographic differences in vegetation cover, and the subsequent impact of contrasting temperature conditions to soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics are understudied. Buffering of permafrost-affected soils against warming air temperatures in boreal forests can reflect surface soil characteristics (e.g., thickness of organic material) as well as the degree and type of canopy cover (e.g., open cover vs closed cover). Both landscape and soil properties interact to determine meso- and micro-scale heterogeneity of ground warming. We sampled a hillslope catena transect in a discontinuous permafrost zone near Fairbanks, Alaska to test the small-scale (1 to 3 meter) impacts of slope position and cover type on soil organic matter composition. Mineral active layer samples were collected from backslope, low backslope, and footslope positions at depths spanning 19 to 60 cm. We examined soil mineralogical composition, soil moisture, total carbon and nitrogen content, and organic mat thickness in conjunction with an assessment of SOC composition using Fourier-transform ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS). Soils in the footslope position had a higher relative contribution of lignin-like compounds while backslope soils had more aliphatic and condensed aromatic compounds as determined by FT-ICR-MS. The effect of open versus closed tree canopy cover varied with slope position. On the backslope, we found higher oxidation of molecules under open cover compared with closed cover, indicating an effect of warmer soil temperature on decomposition. Little to no effect of canopy was observed for soils at the footslope position, which we attributed, in part, to the strong impact of soil moisture content in SOC dynamics in the water-gathering footslope position. The thin organic mat under open cover on the backslope position may have contributed to differences in soil temperature and thus SOC oxidation under open and closed canopy. Here, the thinner organic mat did not appear to buffer the underlying soil against warm season air temperatures and thus increased SOC decomposition as indicated by higher oxidation of SOC molecules and a lower contribution of simple molecules under open cover compared with the closed canopy sites. Our findings suggest that the role of canopy cover in SOC dynamics varies as a function of landscape position and soil properties, namely organic mat thickness and soil moisture. Condition-specific heterogeneity of SOC composition under open and closed canopy cover highlights the protective effect of canopy cover for soils on backslope positions. This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/Erin-Rooney/Y1_fairbanks (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8071247).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanistic Modeling of Microtopographic Impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes in an Alaskan Tundra Ecosystem Using the CLM-Microbe Model

Spatial heterogeneities in soil hydrology have been confirmed as a key control on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in the Arctic tundra ecosystem. In this study, we applied a mechanistic ecosystem model, CLM-Microbe, to examine the microtopographic impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes across seven landscape types in Utqia&#289vik, Alaska: trough, low-centered polygon (LCP) center, LCP transition, LCP rim, high-centered polygon (HCP) center, HCP transition, and HCP rim. We first validated the CLM-Microbe model against static-chamber measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in 2013 for three landscape types: trough, LCP center, and LCP rim. Model application showed that low-elevation and thus wetter landscape types (i.e., trough, transitions, and LCP center) had larger CH 4 emissions rates with greater seasonal variations than high-elevation and drier landscape types (rims and HCP center). Sensitivity analysis indicated that substrate availability for methanogenesis (acetate, CO 2 + H 2 ) is the most important factor determining CH 4 emission, and vegetation physiological properties largely affect the net ecosystem carbon exchange and ecosystem respiration in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Modeled CH 4 emissions for different microtopographic features were upscaled to the eddy covariance (EC) domain with an area-weighted approach before validation against EC-measured CH 4 fluxes. The model underestimated the EC-measured CH 4 flux by 20% and 25% at daily and hourly time steps, suggesting the importance of the time step in reporting CH 4 flux. The strong microtopographic impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes call for a model-data integration framework for better understanding and predicting carbon flux in the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Subgrid Approach for Modeling Microtopography Effects on Overland Flow

Microtopography, or heterogeneities in the elevation across scales much smaller than the domain of interest, plays a critical role in surface water retention, surface/subsurface interactions, and runoff. Resolving microtopographic influences on flow requires high–resolution simulations, which are computationally demanding even when considering the surface system in isolation and even more so when surface flow is one component in integrated simulations that couple surface flow with unsaturated subsurface flow. There is thus significant motivation for models that allow the effects of subgrid microtopography to be better represented. Subgrid models modify coarsened models to capture the microtopography–induced nonlinear effects on hydrologic processes. We present a subgrid model that alters the water storage and flow terms in the diffusion wave equation for surface flow. Stochastically generated microtopography with strongly contrasting spatial structure, high–resolution digital elevation maps from a polygonal tundra site on the North Slope of Alaska and a hummocky microtopography from a field site in Northern Minnesota are used to assess the accuracy and applicability of the subgrid model to disparate landscapes. Approaches for determining subgrid model parameters are tested and simulation results using the subgrid model are compared to benchmark fine–scale simulations and to coarse simulations that ignore microtopography. Our findings confirm that a properly parameterized subgrid model greatly improves the coarse–scale representation of hydrographs and total water content in the system. Furthermore, using the polygonal tundra example, we propose and test a strategy for moving to application–relevant spatial scales by combining microtopography classification and a few fine–scale simulations on small subdomains.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote Sensing-Informed Zonation for Understanding Snow, Plant and Soil Moisture Dynamics within a Mountain Ecosystem

In the headwater catchments of the Rocky Mountains, plant productivity and its dynamics are largely dependent upon water availability, which is influenced by changing snowmelt dynamics associated with climate change. Understanding and quantifying the interactions between snow, plants and soil moisture is challenging, since these interactions are highly heterogeneous in mountainous terrain, particularly as they are influenced by microtopography within a hillslope. Recent advances in satellite remote sensing have created an opportunity for monitoring snow and plant dynamics at high spatiotemporal resolutions that can capture microtopographic effects. In this study, we investigate the relationships among topography, snowmelt, soil moisture and plant dynamics in the East River watershed, Crested Butte, Colorado, based on a time series of 3-meter resolution PlanetScope normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images. To make use of a large volume of high-resolution time-lapse images (17 images total), we use unsupervised machine learning methods to reduce the dimensionality of the time lapse images by identifying spatial zones that have characteristic NDVI time series. We hypothesize that each zone represents a set of similar snowmelt and plant dynamics that differ from other identified zones and that these zones are associated with key topographic features, plant species and soil moisture. We compare different distance measures (Ward and complete linkage) to understand the effects of their influence on the zonation map. Results show that the identified zones are associated with particular microtopographic features; highly productive zones are associated with low slopes and high topographic wetness index, in contrast with zones of low productivity, which are associated with high slopes and low topographic wetness index. The zones also correspond to particular plant species distributions; higher forb coverage is associated with zones characterized by higher peak productivity combined with rapid senescence in low moisture conditions, while higher sagebrush coverage is associated with low productivity and similar senescence patterns between high and low moisture conditions. In addition, soil moisture probe and sensor data confirm that each zone has a unique soil moisture distribution. This cluster-based analysis can tractably analyze high-resolution time-lapse images to examine plant-soil-snow interactions, guide sampling and sensor placements and identify areas likely vulnerable to ecological change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗

High-Resolution Spatio-Temporal Estimation of Net Ecosystem Exchange in Ice-Wedge Polygon Tundra Using In Situ Sensors and Remote Sensing Data

Land-atmosphere carbon exchange is known to be extremely heterogeneous in arctic ice-wedge polygonal tundra regions. In this study, a Kalman filter-based method was developed to estimate the spatio-temporal dynamics of daytime average net ecosystem exchange (NEEday) at 0.5-m resolution over a 550 m by 700 m study site. We integrated multi-scale, multi-type datasets, including normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVIs) obtained from a novel automated mobile sensor system (or tram system) and a greenness index map obtained from airborne imagery. We took advantage of the significant correlations between NDVI and NEEday identified based on flux chamber measurements. The weighted average of the estimated NEEday within the flux-tower footprint agreed with the flux tower data in term of its seasonal dynamics. We then evaluated the spatial variability of the growing season average NEEday, as a function of polygon geomorphic classes; i.e., the combination of polygon types—which are known to present different degradation stages associated with permafrost thaw—and microtopographic features (i.e., troughs, centers and rims). Our study suggests the importance of considering microtopographic features and their spatial coverage in computing spatially aggregated carbon exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗