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On the Role of Airborne Ice Nucleating Particles in Primary and Secondary Ice Formation Processes in Convective Midlatitude Clouds

Abstract Formation of ice in mixed-phase clouds may proceed via primary nucleation and secondary ice production (SIP). Primary nucleation involves the presence of ice nucleating particles (INPs), while SIP follows primary nucleation, resulting in ice crystal number concentrations N ice exceeding the number of INPs. The ice formation pathways in young congestus clouds are not well understood nor are the environmental conditions favorable for the onset of SIP. Coincident airborne measurements of INPs and N ice collected during the Secondary Production of Ice in Cumulus Experiment (SPICULE) campaign over the U.S. central Great Plains are reported for young congestus clouds. Number concentrations of INPs and N ice at temperatures between −10° and −20°C were used to categorize whether SIP was active in each analyzed cloud pass. Observational data suggested that fragmentation of freezing droplets (FFDs) was occurring and the most likely SIP mechanism for ice enhancement during the early stages of the sampled clouds, where higher cloud-base temperatures and stronger updrafts produced conditions favorable for the onset of FFD. Simple model simulations of a congestus cloud were used to compare predictions of N ice from newly implemented SIP mechanisms (including FFD) alongside those from the existing Hallett–Mossop (HM) mechanism. Although predicted N ice , when all SIP mechanisms were active, was in good agreement with observations, the dominant SIP mechanism in the model was predicted to be HM. The rate of heterogeneous freezing in raindrops was likely inhibiting realistic FFD rates in the simulated cloud. These discrepancies between the observations and simulations underscore the need for extended laboratory studies to formulate improved model representations of SIP in convective clouds.

Patnaude, Ryan J. [Department of Atmospheric Scien

Mesoscale Organization in Cumulus-Coupled Stratocumulus

Marine cloud systems cover a substantial portion of the world’s oceans. Most of these clouds form relatively close to the ocean surface, typically within one to two kilometers, a region referred to by meteorologists as the marine boundary layer. They are composed predominantly of liquid water, although ice particles can occur in mid- and high-latitude marine clouds during winter. In satellite imagery, these clouds appear bright against the darker ocean surface below, reflecting a large fraction of incoming sunlight back into space that would otherwise warm the ocean. Because marine boundary layer clouds cover such an extensive area of the ocean, they exert a significant influence on Earth’s overall transfer of solar energy absorbed by the surface and thermal energy emitted to space, a balance known as the planetary radiation budget. Marine boundary layer clouds are typically thin, and their formation and dissipation depend on a delicate balance between processes acting at the ocean surface below and the warm, dry air above. They are notoriously difficult to simulate accurately in weather forecast models, which often produce too few marine low clouds in midlatitudes and clouds in tropical regions that are excessively bright, meaning they reflect too much solar radiation. The marine boundary layer is frequently characterized by widespread overcast cloud cover that often transitions from a continuous, single-layer deck to more broken cloud fields toward the tropics. These transitions typically proceed through an intermediate stage in which shallow, broken clouds form beneath the overlying stratiform cloud deck. Once broken clouds develop below the overcast, they frequently self-organize into cloud clusters known as marine boundary layer convective complexes (MBLCCs), although the mechanisms governing the formation and organization of MBLCCs remain poorly understood. Accurately representing these transitions in long-range weather forecast models is essential because they influence the properties of air masses advected over the continental United States and Europe, and they become increasingly important for forecasts on seasonal and longer timescales. We employed two complementary approaches to investigate the processes controlling MBLCCs and their impact on marine cloud cover. Long-term observations from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Observatory provided a unique dataset that allowed us to characterize fundamental properties of MBLCCs, including their typical size and frequency of occurrence. These observations were combined with high-resolution numerical simulations performed on supercomputers to examine the evolution of MBLCCs during cold-air outbreaks over the ENA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

An Improved Convection Parameterization with Detailed Aerosol–Cloud Microphysics for a Global Model

Abstract A new microphysical treatment that includes aerosol–cloud interactions and secondary ice production (SIP) mechanisms is implemented in the convection scheme of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6). The approach is to embed a 1D Lagrangian parcel model in the bulk convective plume of the existing deep convection parameterization. Aerosol activation, growth processes including collision/coalescence, and three processes of SIP mechanisms, two of which are normally overlooked in atmospheric models, are represented in this embedded parcel model. These microphysical processes are treated with a hybrid bin/bulk scheme and a high spatial and temporal resolution for the integration of the embedded parcel in 1D, allowing vertical velocity to determine the microphysical evolution following the in-cloud motion during ascent. Simulations of an observed case (Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment) of a mesoscale convective system in Oklahoma, United States, with a single-column model (SCAM) version of CAM, are compared with aircraft in situ and ground-based observations of microphysical properties from the convection and precipitation. Results from the validation show the new microphysical scheme has a good representation of the ice initiation in the bulk convective plume, including the known and empirically quantified pathways of primary and secondary initiation, with benefits for the accuracy of properties of its supercooled cloud liquid. The sensitivity simulations and use of tagging tracers for the validated simulation confirm that the newly included SIP mechanisms are of paramount importance for convective microphysics and can be successfully treated in the global model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Impacts of Mean State Ocean Heat Transport on Climate and Its Response to CO 2 Forcing

Simulations of the slab ocean configuration of the coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) were used to isolate the role of poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) in shaping the climate and its response to CO 2 forcing. Imposed changes to mean-state OHT produce compensating changes in atmospheric heat transport (AHT) that are mediated by changes in surface evaporation. A reduction of maximum OHT by 0.56 PW (32%) reduces the global mean surface air temperature by 3.6°C. However, this cooler mean state exhibits 1.2°C more warming under CO 2 quadrupling, with the largest differences occurring at high latitudes. The amplified warming arises from stronger surface albedo and lapse rate feedbacks in polar regions and a shortwave cloud feedback in the southern midlatitudes. These results highlight the critical role of mean-state OHT in modulating mean-state climate, the partitioning between the OHT and AHT, and climate sensitivity.

Atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions

Identifying synoptic controls on boundary layer thermodynamic and cloud properties in a regional forecast model

Although most of our understanding of boundary layer cloudiness is based on idealized, subtropical, barotropic marine environments, boundary layer clouds exist across a range of conditions. In this study, we use the Naval Research Laboratory's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) and an automated cold-front-relative analysis framework to explore the boundary layer structure associated with low clouds across a transect through the cold front of a midlatitude synoptic cyclone. The model credibly captures boundary layer structure in line with conceptual models of midlatitude cyclones and ground-based observations at Graciosa Island in the Azores. The warm sector is conditionally unstable, with clouds that are too shallow and with too little liquid water, compared to cloud property retrievals from satellite and surface-based instruments. The cold-frontal region exhibits convection associated with weak stability and ascent. Northwest of the cold front, the boundary layer is well mixed, deeper, and capped by a strong inversion maintained by large-scale subsidence. Simulated clouds in frontal and post-frontal regions are mostly too thick, with too much liquid water and too little cloud base drizzle. The post-frontal clouds are associated with grid-scale updrafts, which appear to be the model's attempt to represent mesoscale organization of cellular convection typically observed in the cold sector of midlatitude cyclones. The deep, well-mixed post-frontal boundary layers and cloudiness are maintained by strong surface fluxes, as in cold air outbreaks. Our analysis framework serves as a unique approach to model verification, and our results offer insights into differences in boundary layer cloud behavior between subtropical and synoptic cold-sector regimes.

Eissner, Jordan M. [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS

Machine learning reveals strong grid-scale dependence in the satellite N d –LWP relationship

The relationship between cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and liquid water path (LWP) is highly uncertain yet crucial for determining the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) on Earth's radiation budget. The N d -LWP relationship is examined using a machine learning (ML) random forest model applied to five years of satellite data at grid resolutions ranging from 10° to 0.05° in 12 distinct regions. In the subtropics, the shape of the N d -LWP relationship switches from an inverted-V at 1° grid-resolution to an “M” shape at 0.1° resolution with decreased $\frac{\textrm{dln⁡LWP}}{\textrm{dln⁡}N_d}$ sensitivity. Tropical and midlatitude regions generally show a more positive sensitivity. Cloud sampling and filtering also influence this slope, wherein the exclusion of thin clouds, as commonly performed to reduce retrieval uncertainty, leads to strongly negative sensitivity across all regions. Precipitation is primarily responsible for driving the strength of the sensitivity, with strong positive slopes in raining clouds and negative and/or neutral responses found in non-raining clouds. A new method to compute radiative forcing from the ML model shows a robust Twomey radiative forcing across all regions and grid resolutions. However, LWP and cloud fraction adjustments to the radiative forcing, which are ∼50 % or smaller than the Twomey effect, decrease to negligible values with higher spatial resolution data. As Earth system models move toward higher spatial resolutions in the future, evaluating the LWP and CF adjustment contributions to the radiative forcing budget at these finer resolutions will be essential for evaluation and model development.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions

Boundary-Layer-Coupled and Decoupled Clouds in Global Storm-Resolving Models: Comparisons With the ARM Observations

The accurate representation of interactions between clouds and planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a persistent challenge in climate models, critical for simulating surface energy budget. The emergence of kilometer-grid-scale global storm resolving models (GSRMs) offers the potential for enhanced details of PBL processes in these complex interactions. This study evaluates the representation of PBL-coupled and decoupled clouds in nine GSRM simulations against extensive ground-based observations by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, across six sites encompassing diverse regimes such as marine and continental environments in tropics and midlatitude. By differentiating coupling based on the relative positions between cloud bases and PBL tops, our analysis focuses on the simulation of PBL height, cloud frequency, position and vertical extent. The GSRMs generally exhibit commendable agreements with observed cloud structures and PBL diurnal cycles across different ARM sites. In contrast to the relatively consistent representation of decoupled clouds, discrepancies exist between the simulated and the observed coupled clouds, particularly in areas of intense convection, for example, over tropical rainforests and mountainous regions. These biases are probably associated with the models' tendency to underestimate the boundary layer humidity and the frequency of coupled clouds within different ranges of PBL heights. This study underscores the importance for continuous improvements in the representation of boundary layer and convection within these global kilometer-grid-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Dependence of CCN closure relationship with organic fraction from two airborne field campaigns over mid-latitude land and ocean

This study investigates the relationship between measured and calculated cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration and its dependence with organic fraction utilizing aircraft observations from The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA, 2017–2018) and The Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE, 2016) campaigns, which represent midlatitude marine and continental environments, respectively. For the ACE-ENA marine region, aerosol and CCN concentrations were significantly higher in summer than in winter, whereas at continental site for HI-SCALE, aerosol and CCN concentrations showed no pronounced differences between spring and autumn. Using aerosol chemical composition and number size distribution data, CCN concentrations at various supersaturations are calculated based on Köhler theory and then compared with observations from CCN counter. The results show that CCN closure performs well at both sites with a slight overestimation, with mean closure ratio (CR) of 1.13 and 1.17, respectively. Further investigation reveals that CR at lower supersaturation perform better than that at higher supersaturation. The dependence of CR on organic mass fraction (MForg) varies by environment: for marine aerosols, CR decreases with increasing organic fraction at lower supersaturations, whereas continental aerosols exhibit a consistent overestimation, with CR decreasing as organic fraction increases at higher supersaturations. This study provides key insights into CCN characteristics over midlatitude marine and continental environments, emphasizing the necessity of incorporating size-resolved chemical composition and mixing states into future model parameterizations, and contributing to a better understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions.

ACE-ENA field campaign

Impact of Turbulence Representation on the Relationship Between Cloud Feedback and Aerosol‐Cloud Interaction in an E3SMv2 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble

Recent studies reveal an anti‐correlation between global cloud feedback (CF) and effective radiative forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interaction (ERFaci) in Earth system models, but the physical mechanisms underlying it remain uncertain. Here we investigate how different turbulence representations contribute to this relationship over the global ocean using an ensemble of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 simulations with perturbed turbulence parameters. The anti‐correlation appears only in the tropical ascent regime. In the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude and high latitude regimes, there is no significant correlation, and in the tropical marine low cloud and Southern Ocean regimes, the correlation is positive. These opposite correlations are primarily driven by opposing CF responses to perturbed parameters. We find that the mean‐state turbulent mixing strength affects both CF and ERFaci, enabling strong correlations in certain regimes. This study highlights the complex linkages between CF and ERFaci through turbulent processes across diverse cloud regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Model-observation discrepancies in Arctic moisture intrusions: causes and pathways for improved simulation

Arctic moisture intrusions (MIs), narrow filaments of strong moisture transport, are key drivers of poleward moisture flux and Arctic weather extremes, yet their representation in climate models is poorly understood. Using a new Arctic MI detection algorithm, we document persistent biases across three CMIP generations (CMIP3–CMIP6): models overestimate MI occurrence over the Pacific sector and underestimate it over the Atlantic sector. These errors stem from misrepresented midlatitude westerly jets, with an equatorward North Atlantic jet associated with too few Atlantic MIs, and a poleward, weakened North Pacific jet linked to too many Pacific MIs. Experiments that correct sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration biases and increase atmospheric resolution improve jet structure and MI statistics, while a cloud-locking simulation indicates that better high-frequency cloud–radiation–circulation interactions can yield further gains. Our results clarify pathways to reducing long-standing MI and jet biases, providing guidance for improving simulations of Arctic and midlatitude climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Large spatiotemporal variability in aerosol properties over central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign

Abstract. Few field campaigns with extensive aerosol measurements have been conducted over continental areas in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this data gap and better understand the interactions of convective clouds and the surrounding environment, extensive in situ and remote sensing measurements were collected during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign conducted between October 2018 and April 2019 over the Sierras de Córdoba range of central Argentina. This study describes measurements of aerosol number, size, composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) collected on the ground and from a research aircraft during 7 weeks of the campaign. Large spatial and multiday variations in aerosol number, size, composition, and CCN were observed due to transport from upwind sources controlled by mesoscale to synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. Large vertical wind shears, back trajectories, single-particle measurements, and chemical transport model predictions indicate that different types of emissions and source regions, including biogenic emissions and biomass burning from the Amazon and anthropogenic emissions from Chile and eastern Argentina, contribute to aerosols observed during CACTI. Repeated aircraft measurements near the boundary layer top reveal strong spatial and temporal variations in CCN and demonstrate that understanding the complex co-variability of aerosol properties and clouds is critical to quantify the impact of aerosol–cloud interactions. In addition to quantifying aerosol properties in this data-sparse region, these measurements will be valuable to evaluate predictions over the midlatitudes of South America and improve parameterized aerosol processes in local, regional, and global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Radiative, Hydrologic, and Circulation Responses to Warming in Cess‐Potter Simulations Using the Global 3.25‐km SCREAM

Using the global 3.25-km Simple Cloud Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM 3 km), a pair of 13-month Cess-Potter simulations are performed to quantify the radiative feedbacks and the hydrologic and circulation responses to warming. Large-scale aspects of SCREAM 3 km's top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, precipitation rates, and circulations are in good agreement with observations and reanalysis, with notable differences, including a drier lower free-troposphere in the Tropics, reduced precipitation and humidity over the Tropical West Pacific, and poleward shifted Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet. In response to warming, SCREAM 3 km predicts a total radiative feedback within the top 15% of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, which puts it substantially higher than the feedback reported by other kilometer-scale models. SCREAM 3 km's high radiative feedback stems from a strongly positive shortwave cloud feedback, most prominent over the mid- and high-latitudes. SCREAM 3 km's high precipitation response also puts it among the highest of CMIP models, whereas its circulation response is within the spread of CMIP models. An ensemble of five perturbed initial condition Cess-Potter simulations with a 12 km version of SCREAM (SCREAM 12 km) is performed to characterize uncertainty and resolution sensitivity. It suggests that the uncertainty from analyzing a pair of 1-year simulations is small compared to the inter-model spread in feedbacks and precipitation response. SCREAM 12 km also produces a strong precipitation response to warming but a much lower cloud feedback and total radiative feedback. The results from these experiments suggest that the spread in climate feedbacks will likely persist in the next generation of kilometer-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Simulations of Phase State and Equilibration Time Scales of Secondary Organic Aerosols with GEOS-Chem

The phase state of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) can range from liquid through amorphous semisolid to glassy solid, which is important to consider as it influences various multiphase processes including SOA formation and partitioning, multiphase chemistry, and cloud activation. In this study, we simulate the glass transition temperature and viscosity of SOA over the globe using the global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem. The simulated spatial distributions show that SOA at the surface exist as liquid over equatorial regions and oceans, semisolid in the midlatitude continental regions, and glassy solid over lands with low relative humidity. The predicted SOA viscosities are mostly consistent with the available measurements. In the free troposphere, SOA particles are mostly predicted to be semisolid at 850 hPa and glassy solid at 500 hPa, except over tropical regions including Amazonia, where SOA are predicted to be low viscous. Phase state also exhibits seasonal variation with a higher frequency of semisolid and solid particles in winter compared to warmer seasons. We calculate equilibration time scales of SOA partitioning (τ eq ) and effective mass accommodation coefficient (α eff ), indicating that τ eq is shorter than the chemical time step of GEOS-Chem of 20 min and αeff is close to unity for most locations at the surface level, supporting the application of equilibrium SOA partitioning. However, τ eq is prolonged and α eff is lowered over drylands and most regions in the upper troposphere, suggesting that kinetically limited growth would need to be considered for these regions in future large-scale model studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Cumulonimbus Clouds Convert a Smaller Fraction of CAPE into Kinetic Energy in a Warmer Atmosphere

Abstract This study investigates how entrainment’s diluting effect on cumulonimbus updraft buoyancy is affected by the temperature of the troposphere, which is expected to increase by the end of the century. A parcel model framework is constructed that allows for independent variations in the temperature ( T ), the entrainment rate ε , the free-tropospheric relative humidity (RH), and the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Using this framework, dilution of buoyancy is evaluated with T and RH independently varied and with CAPE either held constant or increased with temperature. When CAPE is held constant, buoyancy decreases as T increases, with parcels in warmer environments realizing substantially smaller fractions of their CAPE as kinetic energy (KE). This occurs because the increased moisture difference between an updraft and its surroundings at warmer temperatures drives greater updraft dilution. Similar results are found in midlatitude and tropical conditions when CAPE is increased with temperature. With the expected 6%–7% increase in CAPE per kelvin of warming, KE only increases at 2%–4% K −1 in narrow updrafts but tracks more closely with CAPE at 4%–6% in wider updrafts. Interestingly, the rate of increase in the KE with T becomes larger than that of CAPE when the later quantity increases at more than 10% K −1 . These findings emphasize the importance of considering entrainment in studies of moist convection’s response to climate change, as the entrainment-driven dilution of buoyancy may partially counteract the influence of increases in CAPE on updraft intensity. Significance Statement Cumulonimbus clouds mix air with their surrounding environment through a process called entrainment, which controls how efficiently environmental energy is converted into upward speed in thunderstorm updrafts. Our research shows that warmer temperatures will exacerbate the moisture difference between cumulonimbus updrafts and their surroundings, leading to greater mixing and less efficient conversion of environmental energy into updraft speeds. This effect should be considered in future research that investigates how climate change will affect cumulonimbus clouds.

Peters, John M.

Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) exhibit striking inter-hemispheric asymmetries: SSWs are frequent in the Arctic but rare in the Antarctic, while PSCs are more persistent in the Antarctic. Although land–sea thermal contrast and orography (LSCO) have been traditionally invoked to explain these asymmetries, here we show using semi-idealized model experiments that even though LSCO strongly impacts the mean state of SSWs and PSCs, it alone cannot fully account for the observed differences. Using model experiments, we reveal that midlatitude oceanic sea surface temperature (SST) fronts represent a crucial supporting additional driver of the hemispheric stratospheric differences. Like LSCO, SST fronts enhance stratospheric convergence of resolved waves, strengthening the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and inducing high-latitude adiabatic warming. This warming significantly enhances Arctic SSW frequency and strongly suppresses PSC formation. Sub-grid-scale non–resolved wave forcing modulates the stratospheric resolved waves effect. The oceanic impact is dominated by North Pacific SST fronts. Our results highlight the indispensable role of SST fronts in shaping Arctic–Antarctic asymmetries in stratospheric dynamics and associated extremes.

Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (OR