Transitioning Technology Developed for Science into Military Engineering, Environmental, and Civil Works Applications
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46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
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A Method for Assessing Effectiveness and Technical Capabilities Required for Integrated Deterrence (NSLP-Final Report-Draft2022)
The United States faces an ever-increasingly multi-polar security environment dominated by great power competition with China and a lingering Russian threat as well as from would-be regional hegemons led by ambitions from Iran and North Korea. Our adversaries are pursuing and expanding the strategic means by-which they have an asymmetric offset (e.g., cyber, space, and other modes below the level of armed conflict). To combat and deter against the widening range of hostile actions, the U.S. must have additional capabilities with-which to deter. All of which drives us towards a more thoughtful integrated approach to deterrence, attempting to best align deterrent tools with the adversary actions in order to maximize the credibility of our deterrent. Such an approach complicates our deterrence strategy and demands a methodology to assess whether the U.S. has the deterrent tools necessary to deter the adversarial actions most costly to the U.S. To address this complexity, we create a framework to comprehensively and systematically assess our deterrent tools as qualitatively measured against the adversarial actions we wish to deter. Deterrence is ultimately an operation in the cognitive domain and at the heart of the framework presented here is the fundamental deterrence calculus which we use as the defining measure of whether a tool will credibly deter a given action. We describe the eight levers of the deterrence calculus and distill these levers to four products that are used to qualitatively assess the overall effectiveness of deterrence tools against adversarial actions. Credibility is determined by two principal variables: the technical credibility of the deterrent tool, and the principle of proportionality. Technical credibility of realized deterrence products is assessed through development of key mission requirements and hardware (e.g., components) that will impose costs, deny benefits, or encourage restraint. The principle of proportionality qualitatively asserts that for a deterrent tool to be cognitively credible, the costs imposed against, or benefits denied by, an action are commensurate to the magnitude of costs received from the adversarial action. By basing this framework on these two fundamentals, it is possible to compare deterrent tools in a systematic approach across the broad spectrum of hostile actions.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Keeping Classified Information Secret in the World of Quantum Computing
Quantum computing is a technology that promises to revolutionize computing by speeding up key computing tasks in are as such as machine learning and solving otherwise intractable problems.Some influential American policymakers, scholars, and analysts are extremely concerned about the effects quantum computing will have on national security. Similar to the way space technology was viewed in the context of the US-Soviet rivalry during the Cold War, scientific advancement in quantum computing is seen as a race with significant national security consequences, particularly in the emerging US-China rivalry.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
On the convergence of the fixed point method for solving neutron transport alpha eigenvalue problems
It was shown that the Fixed Point Method (also known as the Rayleigh Quotient Method) is several times faster than the Critical Search Method for solving neutron transport alpha eigenvalue problems. It was also shown that the Fixed Point Method is able to determine the alpha eigenvalues of sub-critical systems that are beyond the reach of the Critical Search Method. Despite these significant advances, the Fixed Point Method remains an unproven algorithm. Here, this report provides a proof.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Constraining Chemical Kinetics of Uranium Oxides in Extreme Environments
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Nuclear science and engineering, Military science ↗
IHE Material and IHE Subassembly Qualification Test Description and Criteria (v. 14.7)
The purpose of the deflagration-to-detonation test is to demonstrate that an IHE material will not undergo deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) under stockpile relevant conditions of scale, confinement, and material condition. Inherent in this test design is the assumption that ignition does occur, with onset of deflagration. The test design will incorporate large margins and replicates to account for the stochastic nature of DDT events.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
The Roles Of Science In National Security Policymaking: A Case Study Of EMP
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Military science - Nuclear weapons and effects, Po↗
S&TR Oct/Nov 2025 Research SLAM! issue
Postdoctoral research offers value to Lawrence Livermore’s scientific and technological efforts. Uplifting early-career researchers as the next generation of scientists benefits their futures and the Laboratory’s. Taking inspiration from the University of California Grad Slam, which challenges participants to explain their theses in three minutes, the Research SLAM at Livermore provides postdoctoral researchers an opportunity to share their research while honing their communication skills and preparing them for a career in collaborative science. The first spinoff of the Livermore SLAM extended the competition to all Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories in the San Francisco Bay Area. A competition among DOE national laboratories across the country has followed, spurring a nationwide appreciation for budding scientists and the art of connecting high-level science with the nonexpert.
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S&TR Jan/Feb 2025 Partnerships Issue
At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Superconducting magnesium diboride films for levitation of laser targets
Inertial confinement fusion targets would benefit from being levitated inside hohlraums to avoid capsule support-related implosion perturbations. Levitation inside a magnetic trap requires coating the capsule with a thin film that is superconducting at 20 K. Such non-epitaxial film growth on non-planar substrates is challenging. Here, we study Mg vapor annealing and solid-phase reactive inter-diffusion methods to form superconducting magnesium diboride (MgB 2 ) films on different planar and spherical carbon substrates, evaluating glassy carbon, polycrystalline diamond made by chemical vapor deposition, and carbon deposited by magnetron sputtering of graphite targets. Thin films of B and Mg are produced by magnetron sputtering onto stationary planar or rolling spherical substrates and annealed at either 600 or 850 °C in Mg vapor. The films are characterized by a combination of high-energy ion scattering, electron microscopy, and magnetometry. Results show that the critical superconducting temperature of resultant films depends on film microstructure and oxygen impurity content. The formation of MgB 2 films is also strongly substrate dependent, even in this case of non-epitaxial growth. Important factors to consider are oxygen outgassing of the substrate during thermal processing, substrate surface roughness, and the matching of thermal expansion coefficients of different layers in the multilayer structure.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Beyond Idealized Models of Nanoscale Metal Hydrides for Hydrogen Storage
Metal hydrides are attractive for compact, low-pressure hydrogen storage, yet a foundational understanding of factors governing their thermodynamics and kinetics is still lacking. Predictive modeling from the atomic to the microstructural scale plays a critical role in addressing these gaps, particularly for nanoscale materials, which promise improved performance but are difficult to probe. In this paper, we summarize strategies being developed within the Hydrogen Materials—Advanced Research Consortium (HyMARC) for going beyond conventional models to incorporate more complex physics, more realistic structures, and better approximation of operation conditions in simulations of nanoscale metal hydrides. We highlight four beyond-ideal factors that influence predicted performance: (1) surface anharmonic dynamics, (2) interface and surface energy penalties, (3) mechanical stress under confinement, and (4) the presence of native surface oxide. Approaches for addressing these factors are demonstrated on model materials representative of high-capacity hydrogen storage systems, and implications for understanding performance under operating conditions are discussed.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Defending the Homeland: Growing Foreign Challenges to the U.S. Missile Defense Posture
The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) for Policy requested that Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory conduct a Congressionally directed study on homeland missile defense, pursuant to Section 1692 of the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. In accordance with the statutory language, this study considers whether the security benefits obtained by deployment of homeland missile defenses of the United States are undermined or counterbalanced by adverse reactions of potential adversaries, and considers the effectiveness of homeland missile defense efforts of the United States to deter the development of ballistic missiles. Almost a half-century has elapsed since the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, and almost two decades since the former withdrew. Since withdrawing, the United States has sought to develop and deploy a layered missile defense system to defend against regional threats to U.S. and allied interests abroad and to counter limited threats to the U.S. homeland. As such, missile defense supports key national defense policy objectives. Protecting the U.S. homeland, forces abroad, allies, and partners. Deterring attacks against the United States, its allies, and partners. Assuring allies an strengthening U.S. diplomatic activities in peacetime and crisis. We offer five key findings: 1. The primary benefit of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system is the protection it provides the U.S. homeland against a limited but evolving rogue-state missile threat. While this system has never been tested in combat, it appears thus far to have effectively paced North Korea’s development and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In the absence of such a defensive capability, the United States would likely have been more heavily exposed to North Korean actions, would have operated at a much higher-risk posture, and would have had less negotiating room with which to navigate coercive tactics and crises. Its allies would have been more concerned about U.S. willingness in time of crisis and war to run the risks of protecting them. The GMD system also serves as a hedge against Iranian breakout. 2. Potential adversaries continue to develop long-range ballistic missiles despite deployment of a U.S. homeland missile defense system. This includes both rogue states and major power rivals whose long-range missile programs predated the deployment of U.S. missile defenses. While North Korea has continued its long-range missile developments and achieved an intercontinental capability, Iran has not yet reached this threshold. The broader proliferation of long-range missiles anticipated in the late 1990s has not materialized. 3. While Russia has used the existence of a U.S. homeland missile defense system as a justification for its substantial and continuing weapon modernization program, neither Russian force modernization nor the limited U.S. homeland missile defense system has altered the strategic balance. Russia has long considered U.S. missile defenses—both theater and homeland—as directed against its strategic forces and as a capability that could rapidly advance, thereby eroding Russian confidence in its nuclear deterrent. Russia’s political and military actions appear excessive and negatively impact areas such as arms control, but they do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 4. China’s expansion and diversification of nuclear and missile forces has been influenced by its concerns about U.S. homeland missile defense, but those concerns are only one of many factors in China’s force planning. Although China’s actions to preserve and expand its assured retaliation prospects have not fundamentally altered the strategic balance, its buildup and lack of transparency about its force modernization goals are troubling. Taken together, the aggregate pattern of China’s modernization activities over the past two decades strongly suggests a concerted effort to develop a modern military force commensurate with its intended geopolitical status. Whatever China’s legacy concerns over the survivability of its strategic nuclear forces, its ability to overwhelm the GMD system appears intact today and will be further strengthened in the years ahead as it continues its long-term modernization program. China’s political and military actions negatively affect U.S. security interests but do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 5. The basic finding that benefits have not so far been undermined by adverse reactions is a function of circumstances that are increasingly in flux. The existing GMD-centered system is under increasing pressure from the pace and scope of North Korean missile deployments. The proposed “layered” system seeks to mitigate this impending capability gap in the near term and to complement future capabilities, such as the Next Generation Interceptor, when they come online. Given the pace of U.S. missile defense developments since 2000, it is possible that adversary advances in capability will outpace the U.S. system’s ability to adapt. Additionally, because this layered system is in principle more readily scaled, it will almost certainly be viewed skeptically by China and Russia. In a context of growing great-power security competition, the Department of Defense (DoD) should consider undertaking a broader net assessment of the U.S., Russian, and Chinese force balance.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
High-Altitude Burst Observed at Large Ground Ranges
The rise times computed by the author’s three-dimensional geomagnetic electromagnetic pulse (EMP) code MACSYNC for a high-altitude nuclear burst increase from a fraction of a shake under the burst to tens of shakes at a 1,000 km ground range (one shake equals 10 nanoseconds). Computations for similar geometries with the frequently used one-dimensional spherical EMP codes CHAP and HEMP show similar rise times under the burst, but rise times that are an order-of-magnitude shorter at large ground ranges. This difference is likely due to the inability of these codes to treat the three-dimensional aspect of the slanted EMP incidence on the atmosphere.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Nuclear decisionmaking, complexity and emerging and disruptive technologies: A comprehensive assessment
The complex interactions of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) could significantly impact nuclear decision-making, particular in an escalating regional conventional conflict. Such conflicts may present governments with a range of nuclear decisions: whether to introduce a nuclear dimension to a crisis, whether to cross the nuclear threshold through limited nuclear use, how to respond to a limited nuclear attack, whether to expand the scope and intensity of initial limited attacks, and whether to escalate to an all-out nuclear war. At each decision point, EDTs create potential risks as well as rewards. EDTs are likely to influence the context for nuclear decision-making and the choices between different courses of action. EDTs could impact the context of nuclear decision-making by improving or degrading situational assessment, the ability to deliberate, and the ability to manage one’s nuclear forces. EDTs could influence the choice between nuclear restraint or escalation by affecting the perceived strategic benefits, escalatory risks, and operational requirements associated with different courses of action. Even though particular combinations of EDTs could precipitate nuclear use in some scenarios, they could encourage restraint in others. The impact and relevance of the same combinations of EDTs might be different at various nuclear decision points. The availability of specific combinations of EDTs at different stages of a conflict would also vary because of the attrition and one-time-use nature of some capabilities. In later stages of a conflict, the decision maker’s confidence in different combinations of EDTs would depend on their previous experience in using them. While the interactions of EDTs are likely to bring additional complexity to a nuclear decision-making process, EDTs are also not the only source of complexity. Broader strategic, military, operational, legal, moral, and emotional factors are also likely to play an important role. These factors may dominate decision-making in a range of potential cases.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Stockpile Stewardship and Nuclear Testing: A Technical Assessment
Since 1992, the United States has retained confidence in its nuclear weapon stockpile without performing any tests that produce nuclear yield. Instead, it has invested in a stockpile stewardship program (SSP) based on the same approach that was validated through fifty years of experience during the nuclear testing era. As the test moratorium continues and new information becomes available, it is both necessary and appropriate to periodically revisit the question of whether or not nuclear testing should resume. In a recent article by Dr. Mark Schneider, he asserts that the United States should return to nuclear testing to address the issues that negatively affect our country’s nuclear deterrent. A serious, technically informed evaluation of the most significant of the issues Dr. Schneider has raised is provided in this paper. The conclusion of this evaluation is that the strategy of a well-funded SSP coupled with rigorous assessments to identify if there is a specific need for a nuclear test is sound and cost-effective approach. Any decision otherwise needs to take into careful consideration all the classified SSP successes and data pertaining to the particular issues in question.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Characterizing IHE Response to Multiple Shock Loading
The response of high explosives to shock loading is traditionally measured with a steady loading pressure. In many accident scenarios involving fragment impact, however, a loading duration that is shorter than the build up to detonation may occur. Fragments passing through multiple materials before reaching a high explosive charge may produce loading that is comprised of more than one shock wave. Additionally, the build up to detonation in high explosive corner turning loads the explosive a short duration pressure pulse, since rarefactions can often rapidly overtake the reactive wave. For these reasons, we have studied the response of the insensitive high explosive (IHE) materials PBX 9502 and LX-17 to complex loadings of varied intensity and duration. We refer to a single loading of limited duration as a “thin pulse”, whereas more complex scenarios were studied with an impactor that produces a double shock in the explosive. The following report presents experimental data and analyses of thin pulse shock initiation and double shock experiments designed to guide development of models of Insensitive High Explosives (IHEs) under controlled one-dimensional conditions relevant to accident scenarios and corner turning. Thin pulse shock initiation data on PBX 9502 and LX-17 were obtained under varied pulse duration, pressed density, and temperature conditions in order to probe various parameters essential for the development of a physics-based Cheetah reactive flow hotspot model. In situ pressure gauges provide insight into the degree of reaction in the explosive that are not obtainable with optical PDV measurements or distance measurements such as run to detonation. Double shock data was obtained to inform a Composition Aware Cheetah model which can be applied to any TATB-based IHEs. This model supports efforts to find a new IHE formulation and potentially incorporate new binders into IHE formulations. Simulations of each experiment are included to demonstrate the utility of these focused experiments to developing models of HE behavior. One-dimensional gas gun experiments are essential for characterizing shocked HE behavior and informing HE models.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗