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At least 19 records

Solar Effects on Climate and the Maunder Minimum: Minimum Certainty

The current state of our understanding of solar effects on climate is reviewed. As an example of the relevant issues, the climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The GISS Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model coupled to a q-flux/mixed layer model is used for the simulations, which begin in 1500 and extend to the present. Experiments were made to investigate the effect of total versus spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes; spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes on the stratospheric ozone/climate response with both pre-industrial and present trace gases; and the impact on climate and stratospheric ozone of the preindustrial trace gases and aerosols by themselves. The results showed that: (1) the Maunder Minimum cooling relative to today was primarily associated with reduced anthropogenic radiative forcing, although the solar reduction added 40% to the overall cooling. There is no obvious distinguishing surface climate pattern between the two forcings. (2)The global and tropical response was greater than 1 C, in a model with a sensitivity of 1.2 C per W m-2. To reproduce recent low-end estimates would require a sensitivity 1/4 as large. (3) The global surface temperature change was similar when using the total and spectral irradiance prescriptions, although the tropical response was somewhat greater with the former, and the stratospheric response greater with the latter. (4) Most experiments produce a relative negative phase of the NAO/AO during the Maunder Minimum, with both solar and anthropogenic forcing equally capable, associated with the tropical cooling and relative poleward EP flux refraction. (5) A full stratosphere appeared to be necessary for the negative AO/NAO phase, as was the case with this model for global warming experiments, unless the cooling was very large, while the ozone response played a minor role and did not influence surface temperature significantly. (6) Stratospheric ozone was most affected by the difference between present day and preindustrial atmospheric composition and chemistry, with increases in the upper and lower stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum. While the estimated UV reduction led to ozone decreases, this was generally less important than the anthropogenic effect except in the upper middle stratosphere, as judged by two different ozone photochemistry schemes. (7) The effect of the reduced solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone and on climate was similar in Maunder Minimum and current atmospheric conditions.

Rind, David

Relaxed states of MHD turbulence - Minimum dissipation or minimum energy?

The results of driven, steady-state MHD computations are described by adapting the principle of minimum energy dissipation rate to MHD. It is argued that there is a variational principle that is as useful for the driven, steady-state problem as the minimum energy principle is for isolated mechanical systems, particularly for fluids and magnetofluids. Driven, dissipative MHD is reexamined from the standpoint of minimum-dissipation-rate principles.

Montgomery, David

Minimum-variance reduced-order estimation algorithms from Pontrygin's minimum principle

A uniform derivation of minimum-variance reduced-order (MVRO) filter-smoother algorithms from Pontrygin's Minimum Principle is presented. An appropriate performance index for a general class of reduced order estimation problem is formulated herein to yield optimal results over the entire time interval of estimation. These results provide quantitative criteria for measuring the performance of certain classes of heuristically designed, suboptimal reduced-order estimators as well as explicit guidance to the suboptimal filter design process with both continuous and discrete filter-smoother algorithms being considered. By the duality principle, the algorithms of reduced-order estimation can be easily extended to the deterministic problems of optimal control (i.e., the regulator and linear tracking problem).

Ebrahimi, Yaghoob S.

Optimal dual-fuel propulsion for minimum inert weight or minimum fuel cost

An analytical investigation of single-stage vehicles with multiple propulsion phases has been conducted with the phasing optimized to minimize a general cost function. Some results are presented for linearized sizing relationships which indicate that single-stage-to-orbit, dual-fuel rocket vehicles can have lower inert weight than similar single-fuel rocket vehicles and that the advantage of dual-fuel vehicles can be increased if a dual-fuel engine is developed. The results also indicate that the optimum split can vary considerably with the choice of cost function to be minimized.

Martin, J. A.

Measurements of the ambient photoelectron spectrum from Atmosphere Explorer. I - AE-E measurements below 300 km during solar minimum conditions. II - AE-E measurements from 300 to 1000 km during solar minimum conditions

A study is presented of the ambient photoelectron spectrum below 300 km which includes 500 AE-E orbits observed from Dec. 13, 1975 to Feb. 24, 1976. The daytime photoelectron spectrum from 1 to 100 eV was illustrated by several spectra; high resolution 10-32 eV spectra show the widths of the photoelectron lines and the variation of the linewidth and intensity with altitude. The photoelectron flux below 300 km is constant over a period of several months; the photoelectron lines between 20 and 30 eV are very sharp when the total plasma density is low, but broaden at high altitudes as the plasma density builds up during the day. The photo-electron flux above 300 km had an intensity and energy spectrum characteristic of the 250-300 km region only in the presence of low plasma density at the satellite altitude. The flux at high altitudes was extremely variable 3 h after sunrise as a result of attenuation and energy loss to thermal plasma along the path of escaping electrons.

Lee, J. S.

Achieving spectrum conservation for the minimum-span and minimum-order frequency assignment problems

Effective and efficient solutions of frequency assignment problems assumes increasing importance as the radiofrequency spectrum experiences ever increasing utilization by diverse communications services, requiring that the most efficient use of this resource be achieved. The research presented explores a general approach to the frequency assignment problem, in which such problems are categorized by the appropriate spectrum conserving objective function, and are each treated as an N-job, M-machine scheduling problem appropriate for the objective. Results obtained and presented illustrate that such an approach presents an effective means of achieving spectrum conserving frequency assignments for communications systems in a variety of environments.

Heyward, Ann O.

Achieving spectrum conservation for the minimum span and minimum-order frequency assignment problems

Effective and efficient solution of frequency assignment problems assumes increasing importance as the radiofrequency spectrum experiences ever-increasing utilization by diverse communications services, requiring that the most efficient use of this resource be achieved. The research presented explores a general approach to the frequency assignment problem, in which such problems are categorized by the appropriate spectrum-conserving objective function, and are each treated as an N-job, M-machine scheduling problem appropriate for the objective. Results obtained and presented illustrate that such an approach presents an effective means of achieving spectrum-conserving frequency assignments for communications systems in a variety of environments.

Heyward, Ann O.

On the Correlation Between Maximum Amplitude and Smoothed Monthly Mean Sunspot Number during the Rise of the Cycle (from t = 0-48 months Past Sunspot Minimum)

During the rise from sunspot minimum to maximum, the observed value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number at maximum RM is found to correlate with increasing strength against the current value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number R(t), where t is the elapsed time in months from minimum. On the basis of the modern era sunspot cycles (i.e., cycles 10-22), the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important (i.e., at the 95-percent level of confidence) from about 11 mo past minimum and statistically very important (i.e.. at the 99-percent level of confidence) from about 15 mo past minimum; ignoring cycle 19, the largest cycle of the modern era, the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important from cycle onset. On the basis of R(t), estimates of RM can be gauged usually to within about +/- 30 percent during the first 2 yr and to within about +/- 20 percent (or better) after the first 2 yr of a cycle's onset. For cycle 23, because controversy exists regarding the placement of its minimum (i.e., its onset), being either May 1996 or perhaps August 1996 (or shortly thereafter), estimates of its RM are divergent, being lower (more like a mean size cycle) when using the earlier epoch of minimum and higher (above average in size) when using the later-occurring minimum. For smoothed monthly mean sunspot number through October 1997 (t = 17 or 14 mo, respectively), having a provisional value of 32.0. the earlier minimum date projects an RM of 110.3 +/- 33.1, while the later minimum date projects one of 137.2 +/- 41.2. The projection is slowly decreasing in size using the earlier onset date, while it is slowly increasing in size using the later onset date.

Wilson, Robert M.

XMM-Newton Observations of the 2003 X-Ray Minimum of Eta Carinae

The XMM-Newton X-ray observatory took part in the multi-wavelength observing campaign of the massive, evolved star Eta Carinae in 2003 during its recent X-ray minimum in June 2003. This paper reports on the first results of these observations, which were performed (1) before the minimum (five times in January, 2003), (2) near the X-ray maximum just before the minimum (two times in June) and (3) during the minimum (four times in July-August). Hard X-ray emission from the point source of Eta Carinae was detected even during the minimum. The observed flux above 3 keV was approx. 3x10(exp -12) ergs cm(exp -2)/s, which is about one percent of the flux before the minimum. Light curves from the individual observations show no time variability on the scale of a few kilo-seconds. Changes in the spectral shape occurred, but these changes were smaller than expected if the minimum is produced solely by an increase of hydrogen column density. Fits of the hard X-Ray source by an absorbed 1T model show a constant plasma temperature at around 5 keV and an increase of column density from 5x10(exp 22) cm(exp -2) to 2x10(exp 23) cm(exp -2). The spectra below 6 keV significantly deviate from the models that fit the higher energy emission. The X-ray minimum seems to be dominated by an apparent decrease of the emission measure, suggesting that the brightest part of the X-ray emitting region is completely obscured during the minimum in the form of an eclipse. Partial covering plasma emission models might be considered for the spectral variation. The spectra also showed strong iron K line emission from both hot and cold gases, and weak line emission from Ni, Ca, Ar, S and Si.

Hamaguchi, K.

Minimum time and fuel flight profiles for an F-15 airplane with a Highly Integrated Digital Electronic Control (HIDEC) system

A simulation study was conducted to optimize minimum time and fuel consumption paths for an F-15 airplane powered by two F100 Engine Model Derivative (EMD) engines. The benefits of using variable stall margin (uptrim) to increase performance were also determined. This study supports the NASA Highly Integrated Digital Electronic Control (HIDEC) program. The basis for this comparison was minimum time and fuel used to reach Mach 2 at 13,716 m (45,000 ft) from the initial conditions of Mach 0.15 at 1524 m (5000 ft). Results were also compared to a pilot's estimated minimum time and fuel trajectory determined from the F-15 flight manual and previous experience. The minimum time trajectory took 15 percent less time than the pilot's estimate for the standard EMD engines, while the minimum fuel trajectory used 1 percent less fuel than the pilot's estimate for the minimum fuel trajectory. The F-15 airplane with EMD engines and uptrim, was 23 percent faster than the pilot's estimate. The minimum fuel used was 5 percent less than the estimate.

Haering, E. A., Jr.

Anticipating Cycle 24 Minimum and its Consequences: An Update

This Technical Publication updates estimates for cycle 24 minimum and discusses consequences associated with cycle 23 being a longer than average period cycle and cycle 24 having parametric minimum values smaller (or larger for the case of spotless days) than long term medians. Through December 2007, cycle 23 has persisted 140 mo from its 12-mo moving average (12-mma) minimum monthly mean sunspot number occurrence date (May 1996). Longer than average period cycles of the modern era (since cycle 12) have minimum-to-minimum periods of about 139.0+/-6.3 mo (the 90-percent prediction interval), inferring that cycle 24 s minimum monthly mean sunspot number should be expected before July 2008. The major consequence of this is that, unless cycle 24 is a statistical outlier (like cycle 21), its maximum amplitude (RM) likely will be smaller than previously forecast. If, however, in the course of its rise cycle 24 s 12-mma of the weighted mean latitude (L) of spot groups exceeds 24 deg, then one expects RM >131, and if its 12-mma of highest latitude (H) spot groups exceeds 38 deg, then one expects RM >127. High-latitude new cycle spot groups, while first reported in January 2008, have not, as yet, become the dominant form of spot groups. Minimum values in L and H were observed in mid 2007 and values are now slowly increasing, a precondition for the imminent onset of the new sunspot cycle.

Wilson, Robert M.

LDPC Codes with Minimum Distance Proportional to Block Size

Low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes characterized by minimum Hamming distances proportional to block sizes have been demonstrated. Like the codes mentioned in the immediately preceding article, the present codes are error-correcting codes suitable for use in a variety of wireless data-communication systems that include noisy channels. The previously mentioned codes have low decoding thresholds and reasonably low error floors. However, the minimum Hamming distances of those codes do not grow linearly with code-block sizes. Codes that have this minimum-distance property exhibit very low error floors. Examples of such codes include regular LDPC codes with variable degrees of at least 3. Unfortunately, the decoding thresholds of regular LDPC codes are high. Hence, there is a need for LDPC codes characterized by both low decoding thresholds and, in order to obtain acceptably low error floors, minimum Hamming distances that are proportional to code-block sizes. The present codes were developed to satisfy this need. The minimum Hamming distances of the present codes have been shown, through consideration of ensemble-average weight enumerators, to be proportional to code block sizes. As in the cases of irregular ensembles, the properties of these codes are sensitive to the proportion of degree-2 variable nodes. A code having too few such nodes tends to have an iterative decoding threshold that is far from the capacity threshold. A code having too many such nodes tends not to exhibit a minimum distance that is proportional to block size. Results of computational simulations have shown that the decoding thresholds of codes of the present type are lower than those of regular LDPC codes. Included in the simulations were a few examples from a family of codes characterized by rates ranging from low to high and by thresholds that adhere closely to their respective channel capacity thresholds; the simulation results from these examples showed that the codes in question have low error floors as well as low decoding thresholds. As an example, the illustration shows the protograph (which represents the blueprint for overall construction) of one proposed code family for code rates greater than or equal to 1.2. Any size LDPC code can be obtained by copying the protograph structure N times, then permuting the edges. The illustration also provides Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) hardware performance simulations for this code family. In addition, the illustration provides minimum signal-to-noise ratios (Eb/No) in decibels (decoding thresholds) to achieve zero error rates as the code block size goes to infinity for various code rates. In comparison with the codes mentioned in the preceding article, these codes have slightly higher decoding thresholds.

Divsalar, Dariush

The remarkable spectrum of the RV Tauri star R Scuti at deep minimum

In September 1981 R Sct H-alpha declined in brightness to V about 8.5, an exceptionally faint minimum. A 15 A/mm spectrogram of the H-alpha region of R Sct two days past minimum brightness, when the visual magnitude was about 8.3, was obtained. This is apparently the first spectral observation of R Sct close to such a deep minimum. Contrary to spectroscopic observations during 'ordinary' minima of V about 6-7, at this deep minimum the expected G-K Ia absorption spectrum is not seen. Instead, a fantastic array of dozens of strong, narrow emission features and strong TiO absorption bands are present. The emission lines are due to neutral metals, and closely resemble a reversed photospheric spectrum. The deep minimum spectrum is apparently purely chromospheric, and is not produced in a stellar wind or extended atmosphere. The spectroscopic behavior of R Sct at deep minimum, as well as a number of other kinematic and photometric properties, is surprisingly similar to that of the R Coronae Borealis variables.

Howell, S. B.

Minimum-fuel control of high-order systems

The minimum-fuel control problem is of special interest in various space systems. To date, solutions of minimum-fuel control problems have been carried out for relatively low-order systems. Space structures, however, are generally characterized by a large number of degrees of freedom, so that minimum-fuel control of such systems requires a new approach. In the independent modal-space control (IMSC) method, the control laws are designed in the modal space for each mode independently. The minimum-fuel problem reduces to that of a set of independent second-order systems, so that minimum-fuel control is possible. This paper shows how the IMSC method can be used to control a space structure with a minimum amount of fuel. A numerical example is presented.

Shenhar, J.

A combined algorithm for minimum time slewing of flexible spacecraft

The use of Pontryagin's Maximum Principle for the large-angle slewing of large flexible structures usually results in the so-called two-point boundary-value problem (TPBVP), in which many requirements (e.g., minimum time, small flexible amplitude, and limited control powers, etc.) must be satisfied simultaneously. The successful solution of this problem depends largely on the use of an efficient numerical computational algorithm. There are many candidate algorithms available for his problem (e.g., quasilinearization, gradient, and shooting, etc.). In this paper, a proposed algorithm, which combines the quasilinearization method with a time shortening technique and a shooting method, is applied to the minimum-time, three-dimensional, and large-angle maneuver of flexible spacecraft, particularly the orbiting Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) configuration. Theoretically, the nonlinear TPBVP can be solved only through the shooting method to find the 'exact' switching times for the bang-bang controls. However, computationally, a suitable guess for the missing initial costates is crucial because the convergence range of the unknown initial costates is usually narrow, especially for systems with high dimensions and when a multi-bang-bang control strategy is needed. On the other hand, the problems of near minimum time attitude maneuver of general rigid spacecraft and fast slewing of flexible spacecraft have been examined by the authors through a numerical approach based on the quasilinearization algorithm with a time shortening technique. Computational results have demonstrated its broad convergence range and insensitivity to initial costate choices. Consequently, a combined approach is naturally suggested here to solve the minimum time slewing problem. That is, in the computational process, the quasilinearization method is used first to obtain a near minimum time solution. Then, the acquired converged initial costates from the quasilinearization approach are transformed (tailored) to and used as the initial costate guess for starting the shooting method. Finally, the shooting method takes over the remaining calculations until the minimum-time solution converges. The nonlinear equations of motion of the SCOLE are formulated by using Lagrange's equations, with the mast modeled as a continuous beam subject to three-dimensional deformations. The numerical results will be presented and some related computational issues will also be discussed.

Bainum, P. M.

On the Importance of Cycle Minimum in Sunspot Cycle Prediction

The characteristics of the minima between sunspot cycles are found to provide important information for predicting the amplitude and timing of the following cycle. For example, the time of the occurrence of sunspot minimum sets the length of the previous cycle, which is correlated by the amplitude-period effect to the amplitude of the next cycle, with cycles of shorter (longer) than average length usually being followed by cycles of larger (smaller) than average size (true for 16 of 21 sunspot cycles). Likewise, the size of the minimum at cycle onset is correlated with the size of the cycle's maximum amplitude, with cycles of larger (smaller) than average size minima usually being associated with larger (smaller) than average size maxima (true for 16 of 22 sunspot cycles). Also, it was found that the size of the previous cycle's minimum and maximum relates to the size of the following cycle's minimum and maximum with an even-odd cycle number dependency. The latter effect suggests that cycle 23 will have a minimum and maximum amplitude probably larger than average in size (in particular, minimum smoothed sunspot number Rm = 12.3 +/- 7.5 and maximum smoothed sunspot number RM = 198.8 +/- 36.5, at the 95-percent level of confidence), further suggesting (by the Waldmeier effect) that it will have a faster than average rise to maximum (fast-rising cycles have ascent durations of about 41 +/- 7 months). Thus, if, as expected, onset for cycle 23 will be December 1996 +/- 3 months, based on smoothed sunspot number, then the length of cycle 22 will be about 123 +/- 3 months, inferring that it is a short-period cycle and that cycle 23 maximum amplitude probably will be larger than average in size (from the amplitude-period effect), having an RM of about 133 +/- 39 (based on the usual +/- 30 percent spread that has been seen between observed and predicted values), with maximum amplitude occurrence likely sometime between July 1999 and October 2000.

Wilson, Robert M.