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Evaluating Failures and Near Misses in Human Spaceflight History for Lessons for Future Human Spaceflight
There have been a number of studies done in the past drawn on lessons learned with regard to human loss-of-life events. Generally, the systemic causes and proximate causes for fatal events have both been examined in considerable detail. However, an examination of near-fatal accidents and failures that narrowly missed being fatal could be equally useful, not only in detecting causes, both proximate and systemic, but also for determining what factors averted disaster, what design decisions and/or operator actions prevented catastrophe. Additionally, review of risk factors for upcoming or future programs will often look at trending statistics, generally focusing on failure/success statistics. Unfortunately, doing so can give a skewed or misleading view of past reliability or a reliability that cannot be presumed to apply to a new program. One reason for this might be that failure/success criteria aren't the same across programs, but also that apparent success can hide systemic faults that, under other circumstances, can be fatal to a program with different parameters. A program with a number of near misses can look more reliable than a consistently healthy program with a single out-of-family failure and provide very misleading data if it is not examined in detail. This is particularly true for a manned space program where failure/success includes more than making a particular orbit. Augmenting reliability evaluations with this near miss data can provide insight and expand on the limitations of a strictly pass/fail evaluation. Even more importantly, a thorough understanding of these near miss events can identify conditions that prevented fatalities. Those conditions may be key to a programs reliability, but, without insight to the repercussions if such conditions were not in place, their importance may not be readily clear. As programs mature and political and fiscal responsibilities come to the fore, often there is considerable incentive to eliminate unnecessary conservatism, design margin, redundancy, operational support, testing, training, or safety oversight. An evaluation that demonstrates how these features and capabilities averted disaster can ensure processes that saved lives or missions are not discarded without appropriate review and understanding. Close examination of accidents that almost were can also highlight differences in design from one program to another, either justifying reliability comparisons or negating them. It can also provide considerable insight into how those saving factors were developed and implemented so that similar methods can be used to ensure appropriate life-saving and mission saving factors can be developed, even for a dissimilar space program. The lessons are appropriate for seasoned manned space programs and agencies, but crucial for untried agencies and organizations that are interested in sending man into space. The large body of publicly available near miss and accident data available provide invaluable insight into programmatic, technical, and even political issues that can be addressed before they impact safety. In this paper, we examine a number of these near misses and accidents and steps a program, agency, or potential spacefaring company might take to improve their chances of success and avoid mission or safety disasters using this data.
Review of Significant Incidents and Close Calls in Human Spaceflight from a Human Factors Perspective
This project aims to identify poor human factors design decisions that led to error-prone systems, or did not facilitate the flight crew making the right choices; and to verify that NASA is effectively preventing similar incidents from occurring again. This analysis was performed by reviewing significant incidents and close calls in human spaceflight identified by the NASA Johnson Space Center Safety and Mission Assurance Flight Safety Office. The review of incidents shows whether the identified human errors were due to the operational phase (flight crew and ground control) or if they initiated at the design phase (includes manufacturing and test). This classification was performed with the aid of the NASA Human Systems Integration domains. This in-depth analysis resulted in a tool that helps with the human factors classification of significant incidents and close calls in human spaceflight, which can be used to identify human errors at the operational level, and how they were or should be minimized. Current governing documents on human systems integration for both government and commercial crew were reviewed to see if current requirements, processes, training, and standard operating procedures protect the crew and ground control against these issues occurring in the future. Based on the findings, recommendations to target those areas are provided.
Risk Mitigation for Managing On-Orbit Anomalies
This slide presentation reviews strategies for managing risk mitigation that occur with anomalies in on-orbit spacecraft. It reviews the risks associated with mission operations, a diagram of the method used to manage undesirable events that occur which is a closed loop fault analysis and until corrective action is successful. It also reviews the fish bone diagram which is used if greater detail is required and aids in eliminating possible failure factors.
To the moon on gossamer wings
The development of the Lunar Get-Away Special (GAS) canister to search for water on the moon is discussed. The possibility of detecting water on the moon with a gamma-ray spectrometer in a close polar orbit is reviewed. The Lunar GAS configuration, payloads, and subsystems, and a mission scenario are described. The Lunar GAS has a total mass of 150 kg and would require only 33 kg of xenon gas propellant to reach lunar orbit after a launch by the Space Shuttle.
Carbon dioxide and water vapor high temperature electrolysis
The design, fabrication, breadboard testing, and the data base obtained for solid oxide electrolysis systems that have applications for planetary manned missions and habitats are reviewed. The breadboard tested contains sixteen tubular cells in a closely packed bundle for the electrolysis of carbon dioxide and water vapor. The discussion covers energy requirements, volume, weight, and operational characteristics related to the measurement of the reactant and product gas compositions, temperature distribution along the electrolyzer tubular cells and through the bundle, and thermal energy losses. The reliability of individual cell performance in the bundle configuration is assessed.
NASA's New Thermal Management Systems Roadmap; Whats in it, What it Means
In July of 2015 NASA publically released a new set of Technology Area Roadmaps that will be used to help guide future NASA-funded technology development efforts. One of these was the Thermal Management Systems Roadmap, often identified as TA14. This Roadmap identifies the time sequencing and interdependencies of high priority, advanced thermal control technology for the next 5 to 20 years. Available funding limits the development of new technology. The Roadmaps are the first step in the process of prioritizing HQ-supported technology funding. The 2015 Roadmaps are focused on planned mission architectures and needs, as identified in the NRC-led science Decadals and HEOMD's Design Reference Missions. Additionally, the 2015 Roadmaps focus on "applied " R&D as opposed to more basic research. The NASA Mission Directorates were all closely involved in development of 2015 Roadmaps, and an extensive external review was also conducted. This talk will discuss the Technology Roadmaps in general, and then focus on the specific technologies identified for TA 14, Thermal Management Systems.
LCROSS Lunar Impactor - Lessons Learned from a Small Satellite Mission
The Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) launched with the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) on June 18, 2009. While the science function of the LCROSS mission was to determine the presence of water-ice in a permanently-shadowed crater on the moon, the operational purpose was to be a pioneer for future low-cost, risk-tolerant small satellite NASA missions. Recent strategic changes at the Agency level have only furthered the importance of small satellite missions. NASA Ames Research Center and its industry partner, Northrop-Grumman, initiated this spacecraft project two-years after its co-manifest mission had started, with less than one-fifth the budget. With a $79M total cost cap (including operations and reserves) and 31-months until launch, LCROSS needed a game-changing approach to be successful. At the LCROSS Confirmation Review, the ESMD Associate Administrator asked the Project team to keep a close record of lessons learned through the course of the mission and share their findings with the Agency at the end of the mission. This paper summarizes the Project, the mission, its risk position, and some of the more notable lessons learned.
Lcross Lunar Impactor - Lessons Learned from a Small Satellite Mission
The Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) launched with the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) on June 18, 2009. While the science purpose of the LCROSS mission was to determine the presence of water-ice in a permanently-shadowed crater on the moon, the functional purpose was to be a pioneer for future low-cost, risk-tolerant small satellite NASA missions. Recent strategic changes at the Agency level have only furthered the importance of small satellite missions. NASA Ames Research Center and its industry partner, Northrop-Grumman, initiated this spacecraft project two-years after its co-manifest mission had started, with less than one-fifth the budget. With a $79M total cost cap (including operations and reserves) and 31-months until launch, LCROSS needed a game-changing approach to be successful. At the LCROSS Confirmation Review, the ESMD Associate Administrator asked the Project team to keep a close record of lessons learned through the course of the mission and share their findings with the Agency at the end of the mission. This paper summarizes the Project, the mission, its risk position, and some of the more notable lessons learned.
Is MBSE Helping? Measuring Value on Europa Clipper
JPL’s Integrated Model Centric Engineering Initiative (IMCE) has led the infusion of MBSE at JPL. In 2009 I authored for IMCE a set of challenges that confronted systems engineering at JPL, based on examination of issues and lessons from several recent projects (the “Five System Engineering Challenges”). In 2012 I augmented this work to describe specific areas where it appeared MBSE could help address these challenges. Around the same time, the Europa Clipper Mission became the first project at JPL to attempt, in close collaboration with IMCE, a widespread adoption of MBSE. This adoption has been highly successful so far. Europa Clipper completed Phase A (Formulation) with a successful System Requirements Review / Mission Definition Review, and is nearing the end of Phase B, with a successful Flight System Preliminary Design Review in October 2017. This is an opportune time to take stock of the progress and the work yet to go. This paper proposes a practical method for measuring value added through use of MBSE, applies this method to the Europa Clipper Project, and suggests how it might be applied to other projects and organizations.
A Review of Tribomaterial Technology for Space Nuclear Power Systems
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently proposed a nuclear closed-cycle electric power conversion system for generation of 100-kW of electrical power for space exploration missions. A critical issue is the tribological performance of sliding components within the power conversion unit that will be exposed to neutron radiation. This paper presents a review of the main considerations that have been made in the selection of solid lubricants for similar applications in the past as well as a recommendations for continuing development of the technology.
Close Approach Prediction Analysis of the Earth Science Constellation with the Fengyun-1C Debris
Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. Each day, close approach predictions are generated by a U.S. Department of Defense Joint Space Operations Center Orbital Safety Analyst using the high accuracy Space Object Catalog maintained by the Air Force's 1" Space Control Squadron. Prediction results and other ancillary data such as state vector information are sent to NASAJGoddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC's) Collision Risk Assessment analysis team for review. Collision analysis is performed and the GSFC team works with the ESC member missions to develop risk reduction strategies as necessary. This paper presents various close approach statistics for the ESC. The ESC missions have been affected by debris from the recent anti-satellite test which destroyed the Chinese Fengyun- 1 C satellite. The paper also presents the percentage of close approach events induced by the Fengyun-1C debris, and presents analysis results which predict the future effects on the ESC caused by this event. Specifically, the Fengyun-1C debris is propagated for twenty years using high-performance computing technology and close approach predictions are generated for the ESC. The percent increase in the total number of conjunction events is considered to be an estimate of the collision risk due to the Fengyun-1C break- UP.
Study of life support systems for space missions exceeding one year in duration, phase 1A. Volume 2 - Mission studies
The study covered by this report is a continuation of the work conducted under ' contract NAS 2-3012, Study of Life Support Systems For Space Missions Exceeding One Year In Duration Phase I. The previous work compared biological and chemical food processing systems with a stored food system for hypothetical missions of from 10 to 100 men for one to three years. The follow-on work Phase IA, the subject of this report, reviewed new concepts for waste processing and food manufacture in the closed system such as wastes for radiation shielding, wastes for propulsion, glycerol synthesis using chromatographic reactors, glycerol synthesis using acetylene as an intermediate, animal links, the use of radiophosphors for algae illumination, and new biological system approaches. The most promising of these new concepts were combined with the food producing systems evolved in Phase I and compared for three specific model missions; Earth orbit, lunar and mars. The effects of spacecraft power penalty, leakage rate, radiation shielding requirements and extravehicular expendable requirements were assessed and a cost effectiveness analysis was completed for each mission. The cost analysis compared the launch cost savings of the advanced systems with the R&D costs required to produce a flight ready system. The study results indicate that systems using wastes for radiation shielding, leakage makeup, or EVA expendables are very competitive with the biological and chemical food systems for all missions. The stored food baseline system and wastes for propulsion ranked poorly in the comparison studies.
NASA's nuclear electric propulsion technology project
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a program to establish the readiness of nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) technology for relatively near-term applications to outer planet robotic science missions with potential future evolution to system for piloted Mars vehicles. This program was initiated in 1991 with a very modest effort identified with nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP); however, NEP is also an integral part of this program and builds upon NASA's Base Research and Technology Program in power and electric propulsion as well as the SP-100 space nuclear power program. The NEP Program will establish the feasibility and practicality of electric propulsion for robotic and piloted solar system exploration. The performance objectives are high specific impulse (200 greater than I(sub sp) greater than 10000 s), high efficiency (over 0.50), and low specific mass. The planning for this program was initially focussed on piloted Mars missions, but has since been redirected to first focus on 100-kW class systems for relatively near-term robotic missions, with possible future evolution to megawatt- and multi-megawatt-class systems applicable to cargo vehicles supporting human missions as well as to the piloted vehicles. This paper reviews current plans and recent progress for the overall nuclear electric propulsion project and closely related activities.
NASA's nuclear electric propulsion technology project
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a program to establish the readiness of nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) technology for relatively near-term applications to outer planet robotic science missions with potential future evolution to system for piloted Mars vehicles. This program was initiated in 1991 with a very modest effort identified with nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP); however, NEP is also an integral part of this program and builds upon NASA's Base Research and Technology Program in power and electric propulsion as well as the SP-100 space nuclear power program. The NEP Program will establish the feasibility and practicality of electric propulsion for robotic and piloted solar system exploration. The performance objectives are high specific impulse (200 greater than I(sub sp) greater than 10000 s), high efficiency (over 0.50), and low specific mass. The planning for this program was initially focussed on piloted Mars missions, but has since been redirected to first focus on 100-kW class systems for relatively near-term robotic missions, with possible future evolution to megawatt-and multi-megawatt-class systems applicable to cargo vehicles supporting human missions as well as to the piloted vehicles. This paper reviews current plans and recent progress for the overall nuclear electric propulsion project and closely related activities.
The James Webb Space Telescope
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will extend the discoveries of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the Spitzer Space Telescope (SST) by deploying a large cooled infrared telescope around the Sun-Earth Lagrange point L2. With a 6 m aperture and three instruments covering the wavelength range from 0.6 to 28 microns, it will provide sensitivities orders of magnitude better than any other facilities. It is intended to observe the light from the first galaxies and the first supernovae, the assembly of galaxies, and the formation and evolution of stars and planetary systems. In this talk I will review the scientific objectives and the ability of the system to meet them. I will close with a summary of possible future IR space missions, ranging from the far IR to planet-finding coronagraphs and interferometers
History of Nutrition in Space Flight: Overview
Major accomplishments in nutritional sciences for support of human space travel have occurred over the past 40 y. This article reviews these accomplishments, beginning with the early Gemini program and continuing through the impressive results from the first space station Skylab program that focused on life sciences research, the Russian contributions through the Mir space station, the US Shuttle life sciences research, and the emerging International Space Station missions. Nutrition is affected by environmental conditions such as radiation, temperature, and atmospheric pressures, and these are reviewed. Nutrition with respect to space flight is closely interconnected with other life sciences research disciplines including the study of hematology, immunology, as well as neurosensory, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, circadian rhythms, and musculoskeletal physiology. These relationships are reviewed in reference to the overall history of nutritional science in human space flight. Cumulative nutritional research over the past four decades has resulted in the current nutritional requirements for astronauts. Space-flight nutritional recommendations are presented along with the critical path road map that outlines the research needed for future development of nutritional requirements.
Stellar Interferometer Tracking experiment - A proposed technology demonstration experiment
A flight experiment entitled the Stellar Interferometer Tracking Experiment (SITE) is described. The objective of the program is to validate the operation of the primary detector of a space-based optical interferometric telescope and to evaluate how isolation, vibration suppression, and pathlength control enable and enhance instrument operation in the disturbance environment of the Shuttle payload bay. The minimum set of hardware that can perform stellar interferometry is described and the need for nanometer pathlength and arcsecond jitter control is shown. The justification for flight, the experimental benefits, and the applications to future space missions are presented. Results of previous ground experiments that demonstrate the required disturbance rejection are reviewed, and initial estimates of open-loop and required closed-loop performance of the flight experiment are presented.