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Results for “Mixed-effects statistical model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2018

Quantitative Daily Maps of PM 2.5 Episodes for California and Other Regions: Satellite Column Water and Optical Depth as Allied Tracers of Dilution

The Western US and many regions globally present daunting difficulties in understanding PM 2.5 episodes. We evaluate extensions of a method independent of modeled source-description and transport/transformation and using several satellite remote sensing products from imaging spectrometers. The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) especially suffers few-day episodes due to shallow mixing; PM 2.5 retrieval suffers low satellite AOT (Aerosol Optical Thickness) and bright surfaces.Nevertheless, we find residual errors in our maps of of typically 5-8 micrograms per cubic meter. Episodes in the Valley reaching 60-100 micrograms per cubic meter. These maps detail pollution from Interstate 5 at the scale of a few kilometers. The maps are based on NASA's MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data at circa 1 kilometer as processed with the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District has requested that we test our methods in their challenging environment characterized by multiple sub-basins defined by complex topography. Our tests suggest that nearly similar precision may be expected for wintertime conditions with high PM 2.5 . We note difficulties when measured PM 2.5 is less than 8-10 micrograms per cubic meter, but good relative precision when PM 2.5 rises above 20; i.e. in episodes of concern for morbidity and mortality. Our method stresses physically meaningful functions of MODIS-MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction)-derived AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) and total water vapor column. A mixed-effects statistical model exploiting existing station data works powerfully to allow us daily AOT-to-PM 2.5 relationships that allow a calibration of the map. In those cases where water vapor and particles have generally similar surface sources, using the ratio of AOT / Column_water can improve the daily calibrations so as to reach our quoted precision. We briefly present some cartoon idealizations that explain this success and also the likely reasons that our mixed effects model (or "daily calibration") works; also when it should not work. The combined satellite/mixed-effects model works best for wintertime San Joaquin Valley episodes, where the meteorology of particle and H2O(v) dilution is quite appropriate. We extended and tested the methodology (a) for the Bay Area wintertime situations and (b) for smoke plume events (e.g. the October 2017 fire events of the Sonoma area). Our SJV work was evaluated using NASA's DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) airborne measurements, and by season- long measurements in Fresno. If the composition and size distribution of the aerosols can be assessed for the regions we describe, retrievals should have improved accuracy.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Linear Mixed-Effects Models for Human-in-the-Loop Tracking Experiment Data

Linear mixed-effects models provide several benefits over more traditional statistical inference tests that are particularly useful for most human-in-the-loop tracking experiment data. However, surprisingly, mixed models are virtually not used for the analysis of tracking experiment data. This paper uses of linear mixed-effects models to analyze combined tracking data from two previous human-in-the-loop roll tracking experiments that compared control behavior metrics collected in both a research aircraft and a motion-base simulator. In the experiments, pilots' behavior under 10 different motion configurations with varying motion filter gains and break frequencies was evaluated and compared to that in the real aircraft. The linear mixed-effects model analysis on the combined dataset confirmed the main statistical outcomes of the individual experiments. The main benefits of mixed models for this type of data were demonstrated by successfully combining data from two experiments that used different experimental conditions and of which one had an additional apparatus and the other a missing participant. Finally, the mixed-model analysis was able to explicitly test for scientifically relevant statistical differences in the dependent measures between the aircraft and simulator, as well as both experiments.

manual control↗
NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Mapping of PM2.5 Episodes in the Wintertime San Joaquin Valley: A "Static" Model Using Column Water Vapor

The use of satellite Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) from imaging spectrometers has been successful in quantifying and mapping high PM2.5 (particulate matter mass <2.5µm diameter) episodes for pollution abatement and health studies. However, some regions have high PM2.5 but poor estimation success. The challenges in using Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) from imaging spectrometers to characterize PM2.5 worldwide was especially evident in the wintertime San Joaquin Valley (SJV). The SJV's attendant difficulties of high-albedo surfaces and very shallow, variable vertical mixing also occur in other significantly polluted regions around the world. We report on more accurate PM2.5 maps for the whole-winter period in the SJV, Nov 14, 2012?Dec 11, 2013. Intensive measurements by including NASA aircraft were made for several weeks in that winter, the DISCOVER-AQ California mission.We found success with a relatively simple method based on calibration and checking with surface monitors and a characterization of vertical mixing, and incorporating specific understandings of the region's climatology. We estimate PM2.5 to within ~7µgm?3 RMSE and with R values of ~0.9, based on remotely sensed MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) observations, and that certain further work will improve that accuracy. Mapping is at 1km resolution. This allows a time sequence of mapped aerosols at 1km for cloud-free days. We describe our technique as a "static estimation". Estimation procedures like this one, not dependent on well-mapped source strengths or on transport error, should help full source-driven simulations by deconstructing processes. They also provide a rapid method to create a long-term climatology.Essential features of the technique are (a) daily calibration of the AOT to PM2.5 using available surface monitors, and (b) characterization of mixed-layer dilution using column water vapor (CWV, otherwise "precipitable water"). We noted that on multi-day timescales both water vapor and particles share near-surface sources and both fall to very low values with altitude; indeed, both are largely removed by precipitation. The existence of layers of H2O or aerosol not within the mixed layer adds complexity, but mixed-effects statistical regression captures essential proportionality of PM2.5 and the ratio variable (AOT/CWV). Accuracy is much higher than previous statistical models, and can be extended to the whole Aqua-satellite data record. The maps and time-series we show suggest a repeated pattern for large valleys like the SJV ? progressive stabilization of the mixing height after frontal passages: PM2.5 is somewhat more determined by day-by-day changes in mixing than it is by the progressive accumulation of pollutants (revealed as increasing AOT).

Chatfield, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bayesian Statistical Models for Community Annoyance Survey Data

This paper demonstrates the use of two Bayesian statistical models to analyze single-event sonic boom exposure and human annoyance data from community response surveys. Each model is fit to data from a NASA pilot study.Unlike many community noise surveys, this study used a panel sample to collect multiple observations per participant instead of a single observation. Thus, a multilevel (also known as hierarchical or mixed-effects) model is used to account for the within-subject correlation in the panel sample data. This paper describes a multilevel logistic regression model and a multilevel ordinal regression model. The paper also proposes a method for calculating a summary dose-response curve from the multilevel models that represents the population. The two models’ summary dose-response curves are visually similar. However, their estimates differ when calculating the noise dose at a fixed percent highly annoyed.

Musical instruments↗
NASA NTRS2014

Revised (Mixed-Effects) Estimation for Forest Burning Emissions of Gases and Smoke, Fire/Emission Factor Typology, and Potential Remote Sensing Classification of Types for Ozone and Black-Carbon Simulation

We summarize recent progress (a) in correcting biomass burning emissions factors deduced from airborne sampling of forest fire plumes, (b) in understanding the variability in reactivity of the fresh plumes sampled in ARCTAS (2008), DC3 (2012), and SEAC4RS (2013) airborne missions, and (c) in a consequent search for remotely sensed quantities that help classify forest-fire plumes. Particle properties, chemical speciation, and smoke radiative properties are related and mutually informative, as pictures below suggest (slopes of lines of same color are similar). (a) Mixed-effects (random-effects) statistical modeling provides estimates of both emission factors and a reasonable description of carbon-burned simultaneously. Different fire plumes will have very different contributions to volatile organic carbon reactivity; this may help explain differences of free NOx(both gas- and particle-phase), and also of ozone production, that have been noted for forest-fire plumes in California. Our evaluations check or correct emission factors based on sequential measurements (e.g., the Normalized Ratio Enhancement and similar methods). We stress the dangers of methods relying on emission-ratios to CO. (b) This work confirms and extends many reports of great situational variability in emissions factors. VOCs vary in OH reactivity and NOx-binding. Reasons for variability are not only fuel composition, fuel condition, etc., but are confused somewhat by rapid transformation and mixing of emissions. We use "unmixing" (distinct from mixed-effects) statistics and compare briefly to approaches like neural nets. We focus on one particularly intense fire the notorious Yosemite Rim Fire of 2013. In some samples, NOx activity was not so suppressed by binding into nitrates as in other fires. While our fire-typing is evolving and subject to debate, the carbon-burned delta(CO2+CO) estimates that arise from mixed effects models, free of confusion by background-CO2 variation, should provide a solid base for discussion. (c) We report progress using promising links we find between emissions-related "fire types" and promising features deducible from remote observations of plumes, e.g., single scatter albedo, Angstrom exponent of scattering, Angstrom exponent of absorption, (CO column density)/(aerosol optical depth).

Remote sensing↗