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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Practical challenges of model predictive control (MPC) for grid interactive small and medium commercial buildings

To the urgent call for mitigating climate change, substantial initiatives have been undertaken to deploy grid-interactive heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) controls, such as model predictive control (MPC) for buildings. These efforts typically aim to curtail peak energy demand, shift load and enhance overall energy efficiency. With the recent development of low-cost MPC technologies that don’t require extensive instrumentation or manual modeling, small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), which rarely utilize advanced HVAC control systems, have become candidates for grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, despite the potential benefits and maturity of the technology itself, several practical challenges remain in real-world implementation. In this paper, we share the practical challenges that we have encountered in implementing and testing three types of MPC solutions (ON/OFF unit, dualfuel, and VRF systems) on multiple SMCB sites. We describe the MPC deployment process and discuss the lessons learned. The site selection, eligibility, and retrofit availability (e.g., utility price structure, thermostat communications, etc.) are the main discussion points at the beginning of the project. Also, the modeling automation and the best practices for interacting with endusers and handling erroneous situations are presented for successful operations.

woo Ham, Sang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Predictive Control of Discrete-Continuous Energy Systems via Generalized Disjunctive Programming

Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) provides an alternative framework to model optimization problems with both discrete and continuous variables. The key idea behind GDP involves the use of logical disjunctions to represent discrete decisions in the continuous space, and logical propositions to denote algebraic constraints in the discrete space. Compared to traditional mixed-integer programming (MIP), the inherent logic structure in GDP yields tighter relaxations that are exploited by global branch and bound algorithms to improve solution quality. In this paper, we present a general GDP model for optimal control of hybrid systems that exhibit both discrete and continuous dynamics. Specifically, we use GDP to formulate a model predictive control (MPC) model for piecewise-affine systems with implicit switching logic. As an example, the GDP-based MPC approach is used as a supervisory control to improve energy efficiency in residential buildings with binary on/off, relay-based thermostats. A simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach, and the improved solution quality compared to existing MIPbased control approaches.

Bhattacharya, Arnab↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control for Urban Traffic Signals with Stability Guarantees

Traditional traffic signal control focuses more on the optimization aspects whereas the stability and robustness of the closed-loop system are less studied. This paper aims to establish the stability properties of traffic signal control systems through the analysis of a practical model predictive control (MPC) scheme, which models the traffic network with the conservation of vehicles based on a store-and forward model and attempts to balance the traffic densities. More precisely, this scheme guarantees the exponential stability of the closed-loop system under state and input constraints when the inflow is feasible and traffic demand can be fully accessed. Practical exponential stability is achieved in case of small uncertain traffic demand by a modification of the previous scheme. Simulation results of a small-scale traffic network validate the theoretical analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Predictive Control for Modular Solid-State Transformer With Reduced DC Link and Parameter Mismatch

This paper presents the analysis and implementation of a predictive control method for dc-link regulation and voltage balance in a cascaded modular reduced dc-link solid-state transformer (SST). Passive components like bulky dc links limit the power density of power converters, especially medium-voltage (MV) SST. Reduced dc-link or low-inertia converters can dramatically reduce the size, cost, and weight by tolerating larger dc-link ripples and improve the reliability with electrolytic capacitor-less dc link. However, a small dc link leads to tight coupling between the input and the output stages, which is a challenge for control design. In stacked low-inertia converters (SLIC), the low-inertia converter modules are stacked for MV applications, resulting in coupling between the modules and making the control more challenging. A new model predictive control method which can achieve deadbeat regulation on the dc link without weighting factors has been proposed to address this novel problem. This paper focuses on analyzing the condition of the low-inertia dc link up to 80% ripple, the robustness of the control under parameter mismatches, high-order terms, and important implementation issues such as model-based sampling and computation delay compensation. Significantly, the high-order terms are introduced because of the large dc-link ripple. These high-order terms are unique to the SLIC and negligible in conventional high-inertia converters. A discrete-time large-signal model is built to capture the dc-link’s nonlinear dynamics, and the eigenvalues of a small-signal Jacobian matrix are analyzed with Floquet theory to evaluate stability, using the modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) as an example of the SLIC. Simulation and experimental results of an MVDC M-S4T verify the analysis and the predictive control method. Finally, the general application of the predictive control to low-inertia converters is compared against a conventional PI controller using a reduced dc-link active-front-end (AFE) rectifier as an example.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Control of Sodium Cold Trap Purification Temperature Using LSTM System Identification

This study investigates the dynamic regulation of the sodium cold trap purification temperature at Argonne National Laboratory’s liquid sodium test facility, employing long short-term memory (LSTM) system identification techniques. The investigation introduces an innovative hybrid approach by integrating model predictive control (MPC) based on first principles dynamic models with a multi-step time–frequency LSTM model in predicting the temperature profiles of a sodium cold trap purification system. The long short-term memory–model predictive controller (LSTM-MPC) model employs a sliding window scheme to gather training samples for multi-step prediction, leveraging historical data to construct predictive models that capture the non-linearities of the complex system dynamics without explicitly modeling the underlying physical processes. The performance of the LSTM-MPC and MPC were evaluated through simulation experiments, where both models were assessed on their capacity to maintain the cold trap temperature within predefined set-points while minimizing deviations and overshoots. Results obtained show how the data-driven LSTM-MPC model demonstrates stability and adaptability. In contrast, the traditional MPC model exhibits irregularities, particularly evident as overshoots around set-point limits, which can potentially compromise its effectiveness over long prediction time intervals. The findings obtained offer valuable insights into integrating data-driven techniques for enhancing real-time monitoring systems.

LSTM-MPC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Enabled Predictive Control for Building HVAC Systems

Model predictive control is widely used as a control technology for the computation of optimal control inputs of building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. However, both the benefits and widespread adoption of model predictive control (MPC) are hindered by the effort of model creation, calibration, and accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, we apply the data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm for designing controls for building HVAC systems. The algorithm solely depends on input/output data from the system to predict future state trajectories without the need for system identification. The algorithm relies on the idea that a vector space of all input–output trajectories of a discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) system is spanned by time-shifts of a single measured trajectory, given the input signal is persistently exciting. Closed-loop simulations using EnergyPlus are performed to demonstrate the approach. The simulated building modeled in EnergyPlus is a modified commercial large office prototype building served by an air handling unit-variable air volume HVAC system. Temperature setpoints of zones are used as control variables to minimize the HVAC energy cost of the building considering a time-of-use electricity rate structure. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the effect of parameter tuning on DeePC performance. Simulation results are used to illustrate the performance of the algorithm and compare the algorithm with model-based MPC and occupancy-based setpoint controller. Overall, DeePC achieves similar performance compared to MPC for lower engineering effort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deploying a Model Predictive Traffic Signal Control Algorithm - A Field Deployment Experiment Case Study

This paper presents a field deployment experiment of a real-time traffic signal control algorithm. We implemented the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm based on the virtual phase-link (VPL) model. We selected the deployment locations and times based on an energy saving potential concept. We developed a set of experiment systems, which included sensing, processing, and actuating components, to enable field deployment. We tested the systems rigorously before the experiment days. We reported the key procedures on the experiment days, including the steps taken, the real-time control procedure, and the monitoring of the experiment. We evaluated the impact of the deployment by looking at the changes in delay and energy consumption.

deployment↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Evaluation of Occupancy-Aware Model Predictive Control for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Occupant Comfort

The residential sector accounts for 25% of global primary energy consumption. Two methods have previously been proposed to reduce residential energy use associated with the provision of occupant thermal comfort: 1. Occupancy-based HVAC control, operating systems only during confirmed occupancy, and 2. model predictive control (MPC), harnessing a mathematical model and forecasts to find optimal operating strategies. Previous studies estimate the average energy savings of the two methods individually in the range of 21% and 16%, respectively. The research presented herein was carried out to evaluate the energy savings potential in residential buildings by combining both approaches across different climates, house vintages, and occupancy patterns. Occupancy and eight different physical modalities (e.g. CO2 and VOC) data were collected from five homes for time periods of 4–9 weeks. Collected data sets were used to train occupancy prediction models suggested by an extensive literature survey of occupancy model types. The trained prediction models were combined with MPC and detailed EnergyPlus building simulation models to evaluate residential building performance in terms of annual energy savings and thermal comfort, along with discomfort exceedance metrics. Multiple home types and regions were analyzed to understand regional and climate-dependent potential. Based on actual field data, the occupancy models had a prediction inaccuracy between 8% and 35% across the investigated homes. Average occupancy for the collected data ranged from 56% to 86%, a typical range reported in the literature. Building simulations were conducted for three control scenarios: conventional thermostatic control, occupancy-based, and occupancy-based MPC. The results indicate that all advanced strategies improve upon the conventional control, with some scenarios cutting energy use in half with only occasional incurrence of discomfort. The findings indicate that occupancy-aware model predictive residential building control has the potential to drastically reduce energy use and associated emissions while maintaining occupant comfort for both new and existing buildings.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Supervisory Control System for Thermal Energy Distribution System

The integrated energy system (IES) refers to the combination of nuclear energy generation with other energy sources to enable the efficiency and reliability of power generations. To create technologically viable and economically competitive systems, supervisory control strategies are critical for optimizing performance and ensuring stability across different energy generation, transportation, and utilization. This work focuses on the control strategies for the thermal energy distribution system (TEDS), which is a cornerstone of the Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory at Idaho National Laboratory. TEDS currently relies on operators to coordinate across different components to manage energy storage and ensure efficiency. This work demonstrates the use of model predictive control (MPC) with surrogate models in determining optimal setpoints for major TEDS components. The capability of MPC-based supervisory control system is evaluated by autonomously matching the power outputs from a Dymola-based TEDS with target heat demands.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced Switching Frequency Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) for DFIG

An enhanced Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) strategy with a two-step prediction horizon for a Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) is the focus of this paper. The DFIG and RL filter's discrete-time model is used in the proposed control scheme for a two-step prediction horizon of rotor and filter currents for the converter's eight possible switching states. Afterward, the control algorithm selects the ideal switching state, which minimizes currents' objective function. The proposed control scheme does not require a modulation stage for internal controllers. We use Lagrange extrapolations to predict the dynamic changes in currents. The switching frequency reduction is achieved by integrating an optimization constraint in the algorithm's cost function. Furthermore, the Total Harmonic Distortion level of currents is kept below 5%, according to IEEE Std 519-14. Obtained results reveal that the switching frequency of the DFIG converters is considerably reduced without losing control; it is reduced by 13.89KHz for the Grid Side Converter (GSC) and by 1.78KHz for the Rotor Side Converter (RSC).

doubly-fed induction generator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Model Predictive Control With Gaussian Wind Direction Preview for Wake Steering

This article addresses the problem of wake steering control for wind farms that explicitly consider the tradeoff between farm-level power generation and yaw duty cycle under variable and uncertain wind conditions. A novel stochastic model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented, which utilizes a stochastic model of the freestream wind field components in a receding horizon framework to compute optimal yaw set points that maximize the expected value of the farm power while constraining the yaw actuation. Different configurations of the algorithm are evaluated using a steady-state wind farm simulator. The proposed stochastic MPC algorithm can plan control actions over a future prediction horizon based on probabilistic estimates of the incoming wind magnitude and direction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Secondary Frequency Regulation with Optimal Priority Selection of AGC Contributions

Automatic generation control (AGC) is used to maintain acceptable frequencies during operation owing to fluctuations in load and variable resources. In conventional industry applications, the AGC signal is allocated to each generator according to the predispatched frequency regulation capacity or the order of economic efficiency. However, with the increasing integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs), the retirement of conventional synchronous generators (SGs) has posed new challenges to frequency control schemes because fewer of them are optional for AGC regulation. In this paper, we propose a novel model predictive control (MPC)-based frequency regulation model to reduce control cost and ensure stability, by considering different critical dynamic factors when optimally selecting the AGC units. The proposed control model – developed in a general form – comprehensively embeds characteristics such as generator ramping rates, reserve capacity, and operation cost. The model predictive control–based two-timescale AGC scheme enhances the capability of immunizing the power disturbance from types of resources by coordinating the control signals between faster IBRs and slower SGs. The case study’s proposed model is verified to be effective in synergistically enforcing different dynamic properties of AGC units into the frequency regulation scheme.

Jiang, Sufan [The University of North Carolina at ↗
DOE OSTI2025

IBPSA Project 2 BOPTEST: An update on the test cases available in the framework for testing advanced control strategies in buildings

Project 2 develops software infrastructure, test cases, and extensions for the Building Optimization Testing Framework (BOPTEST) to address the expanding needs of building and urban energy system controls through open international collaboration. This paper provides an overview of the new test cases available as of BOPTEST version 0.7.1. Each test case is developed using open-source Modelica libraries and Spawn of EnergyPlus, enabling the creation of high-fidelity building models that incorporate envelope dynamics, Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, and explicit control representations. Currently, eight test cases are available, with five additional cases under development. These test cases cover a wide range of climates, building types, and HVAC systems. This paper compiles and summarizes test case descriptions, cites original manuscripts that developed them for a more detailed description, and reports baseline control performance metrics. Furthermore, two example applications are presented: one illustrating different levels of control, from supervisory to low-level, and another demonstrating how Model Predictive Control (MPC) solutions must be adapted from continuous to integer to control some building actuators.

Zanetti, Ettore↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional surrogates for predictive control of digital twins

Digital twins of complex systems must involve a model that is fast, generalizable, and usable for real-time control. For example, high-fidelity nonlinear multiphysics simulations can capture laser-material interactions, but are too slow for optimization or model predictive control (MPC). Reduced-order models, used to accelerate such computation, frequently fail to generalize to unseen inputs or control states. We show theoretically that this failure is intrinsic, i.e., that a learned model is non-unique outside the sampled subspace when its low-rank structure arises from limited excitation and clustered eigenvalues, rather than from a user-imposed truncation alone. Motivated by this result, we propose a control-ready regional surrogate-construction framework for both autonomous and nonautonomous dynamics; it employs Koopman lifting to represent nonlinearities, while preserving spatial locality. We illustrate our approach by constructing a control-ready surrogate for the digital twin of a thermal component of additive-manufacturing process. Our surrogate, localized in space through a von Neumann stencil, is learned from noisy high-fidelity simulations that emulate thermal-camera images collected during the manufacturing. It is linear in thermo-physically augmented states so that MPC reduces to a convex quadratic program. The surrogate requires no online correction, generalizes to unseen scan paths and power profiles of the laser, and is more than three orders of magnitude faster than a finite-difference solver. Furthermore, when the MPC sequence computed on the digital twin is applied to this solver, closed-loop temperature regulation is recovered, showing that the surrogate preserves control-relevant input-output behavior.

Data-driven model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation-based Performance Evaluation of Model Predictive Control for Building Energy Systems

The performance of model predictive control (MPC) can be significantly affected by different choices of controller parameters such as the time intervals for model discretization and control sampling. Due to the lack of a systematic understanding on how these parameters affect control performance, they are usually selected arbitrarily in practice.In this paper, the combined impacts of selected time intervals for model discretization and control sampling on the performance of MPC are comprehensively investigated for the first time through detailed simulations. Specifically, a typical MPC strategy is first designed to improve building operations based on a reduced-order model of building dynamics. Then, the performance of the designed MPC is evaluated against different choices of time intervals for model discretization and control sampling on a simulated office building. The detailed simulation results reveal that the time interval for model discretization has a much greater influence on the performance of MPC than the time interval for control sampling. Although the time interval for control sampling usually receives more attentions in practice, it turns out that the time interval for model discretization affects the prediction performance, cost saving, and computation time simultaneously and more significantly. Therefore, the simulation-based performance evaluation presented here sheds light on the impacts of different time intervals and facilitates their selection for practical applications of MPC to building operations

Huang, Sen↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extremum-Seeking-Based Ultra-local Model Predictive Control and Its Application to Electric Motor Speed Regulation

Electric vehicle (EV) market is rapidly expanding. As a critical component of EV, an electric motor needs to accurately follow a reference speed signal while respecting the electrical current constraint for safety. Those requirements are usually formulated as a model predictive control (MPC) problem. However, the performance of traditional model-based MPC depends on the accuracy of the system model, which may not always be guaranteed in reality. Therefore, we utilize a data-driven, model-free predictive control strategy, called ultra-local MPC (ULMPC), to control the speed of an electric motor. To further enhance the control performance of ULMPC, we employ the extremum-seeking control (ESC) to tune the control gain of the ULMPC online. Simulation and hardware experiments demonstrate the enhancement of the extremum-seeking-based ULMPC over a constant-gain ULMPC.

Zhou, Yujing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Safe Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active Distribution System Model Predictive Control with EVs and DERs

The temporal and spatial mismatch between PV generation and electric vehicle (EV) charging and discharging may cause voltage violations in active distribution networks. Despite the widespread use of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in power system optimization and control, it lacks guarantees on constraint satisfaction during both training and deployment. This paper proposes a Lagrangian-based safe DRL approach for model predictive control (MPC) of active distribution systems with large-scale integration of PVs, EVs, and energy storage systems (ESSs). A Transformer-LSTM time-series model is proposed to forecast EV charging demand, which is then formulated as a constraint to ensure charging requirements are met. Using this prediction, a Lagrangian-based safe soft actor-critic (SAC) framework is developed for real-time control in a three-phase unbalanced distribution system, enforcing voltage safety constraints while optimizing the cumulative net reward. By integrating the forecasting model with multi-period constraints, the proposed framework jointly coordinates PV systems, EV charging and discharging, and ESS scheduling within the MPC horizon. Numerical experiments on a modified IEEE 123-bus system with real-world data show that, under a high PV penetration scenario, the proposed method increases the net reward by 30.74% and reduces average voltage violations from 0.0011 p.u. to 0.0002 p.u. compared with standard SAC. Compared with the optimal power flow (OPF) approach, it achieves similar voltage security while yielding lower line losses. It also maintains real-time control capability, reducing operation latency to 53.21 ms per 15-minute control interval. The proposed method remains effective under varying PV/EV penetrations and load conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗