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At least 19 records

Climate Modeling of a Potential ExoVenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere maybe a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics) to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗

Climate Modeling of a Potential Exovenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere may be a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗

3D Climate Simulations of Earth-Like Planets with A Range of Atmospheric Composition, Radiative Transfer, Ocean, And Resolution Configurations, Using the New Version of ROCKE-3D

Understanding the climate of terrestrial planetary atmospheres has been increasingly the focus of research worldwide, in light of the increasing amount of rocky planet discoveries orbiting other stars in or near their habitable zone. Here we present simulations with the new version of the 3D climate model ROCKE-3D, whose version 2.0 will soon become publicly available. A wide range of configurations will be supported, compared to a handful ones in its predecessor, version 1.0 (Way et al., 2017). These include two model resolutions (4x5 and 2x2.5), two radiation schemes (GISS and SOCRATES), three atmospheric configurations (Earth-like, Earth-like without O3 and aerosols, and N2-dominated), and three ocean setups (prescribed sea-surface temperatures and ice cover, q-flux, and dynamic). Simulations of all different configuration combinations have been performed and will become available for use by the community. Key results will be presented across those configurations, together of the role of the structural uncertainty in model setup in the resulting climate calculated by the model.

climate simulations of Earth-like planets↗

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth's, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn's moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

Astrobiology↗

NIR-Driven Moist Upper Atmospheres of Synchronously Rotating Temperate Terrestrial Exoplanets

H2O is a key molecule in characterizing atmospheres of temperate terrestrial planets, and observations of transmission spectra are expected to play a primary role in detecting its signatures in the near future. The detectability of H2O absorption features in transmission spectra depends on the abundance of water vapor in the upper part of the atmosphere. We study the three-dimensional distribution of atmospheric H2O for synchronously rotating Earth-sized aquaplanets using the general circulation model (GCM) ROCKE-3D, and examine the effects of total incident flux and stellar spectral type. We observe a more gentle increase of the water vapor mixing ratio in response to increased incident flux than one-dimensional models suggest, in qualitative agreement with the climate-stabilizing effect of clouds around the substellar point previously observed in GCMs applied to synchronously rotating planets. However, the water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere starts to increase while the surface temperature is still moderate. This is explained by the circulation in the upper atmosphere being driven by the radiative heating due to absorption by water vapor and cloud particles, causing efficient vertical transport of water vapor. Consistently, the water vapor mixing ratio is found to be well-correlated with the near-infrared portion of the incident flux. We also simulate transmission spectra based on the GCM outputs, and show that for the more highly irradiated planets, the H2O signatures may be strengthened by a factor of a few, loosening the observational demands for a H2O detection.

Fujii, Yuka↗

Modeling Terrestrial Planetary Atmospheres with ROCKE-3D

I will discuss recent work showing the capabilities of ROCKE-3Dto model the atmospheres of a diverse range of terrestrial worlds from tidallylocked Proxima Centauri b to the ancient Moon.Some emphasis will be placed on ancient Venus simulations thatmay indicate that its present atmospheric state is more tied tothe global-scale resurfacing event of the past Gy than to its proximity to a gradually warming sun over the past 4Gy.

Way, Michael↗

TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI): motivations and protocol version 1.0

Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) or the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M-dwarf system TRAPPIST-1, which has seven known transiting planets for which transit timing variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ∼66 % of the Earth's incident radiation and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is, therefore, one of the prime targets for the JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global climate models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to intercompare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e, but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the habitable zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed of modern-Earth and pure-CO2 atmospheres and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM); however, this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well.

Thomas Jean Daniel Fauchez↗

The Impact of Planetary Rotation Rate on the Reflectance and Thermal Emission Spectrum of Terrestrial Exoplanets around Sunlike Stars

Robust atmospheric and radiative transfer modeling will be required to properly interpret reflected-light and thermal emission spectra of terrestrial exoplanets. This will help break observational degeneracies between the numerous atmospheric, planetary, and stellar factors that drive planetary climate. Here, we simulate the climates of earthlike worlds around the Sun with increasingly slow rotation periods, from earthlike to fully Sun-synchronous, using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model. We then provide these results as input to the Spectral Planet Model, which employs the Spectral Mapping Atmospheric Radiative Transfer model to simulate the spectra of a planet as it would be observed from a future space-based telescope. We find that the primary observable effects of slowing planetary rotation rate are the altered cloud distributions, altitudes, and opacities that subsequently drive many changes to the spectra by altering the absorption band depths of biologically relevant gas species(e.g.,HO2,O2, andO3). We also identify a potentially diagnostic feature of synchronously rotating worlds in mid-infraredHO2absorption/emission lines.

Exoplanet atmospheres↗

The Impact of Planetary Rotation Rate on the Reflectance and Thermal Emission Spectrum of Terrestrial Exoplanets Around Sun-L ike Stars

Robust atmospheric and radiative transfer modeling will be required to properly interpret reflected light and thermal emission spectra of terrestrial exoplanets. This will help break observational degeneracies between the numerous atmospheric, planetary, and stellar factors that drive planetary climate. Here we simulate the climates of Earth-like worlds around the Sun with increasingly slow rotation periods, from Earth-like to fully Sun-synchronous, using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model. We then provide these results as input to the Spectral Planet Model (SPM), which employs the SMART radiative transfer model to simulate the spectra of a planet as it would be observed from a future space-based telescope. We find that the primary observable effects of slowing planetary rotation rate are the altered cloud distributions, altitudes, and opacities which subsequently drive many changes to the spectra by altering the absorption band depths of biologically-relevant gas species (e.g., H2O, O2, and O3). We also identify a potentially diagnostic feature of synchronously rotating worlds in mid-infrared H2O absorption/emission lines.

Scott D Guzewich↗

Effects of Spin-Orbit Resonances and Tidal Heating on the Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone

Much attention has been given to the climate dynamics and habitable boundaries of synchronously rotating planets around low mass stars. However, other rotational states are possible, including spin–orbit resonant configurations, particularly when higher eccentricity orbits can be maintained in a system. Additionally, the oscillating strain as a planet moves from periastron to apoastron results in friction and tidal heating, which can be an important energy source. Here, we simulate the climate of ocean-covered planets near the inner edge of the habitable zone around M to solar stars with the NASA GISS ROCKE-3D general circulation model, and leverage the planetary evolution software package, VPLanet, to calculate tidal heating rates for Earth-sized planets orbiting 2600 and 3000 K stars. This study is the first to use a 3D general circulation model that implements tidal heating to investigate habitability for multiple resonant states. We find that for reference experiments without tidal heating, the resonant state has little impact on the radial position of the inner edge because for a given stellar flux, higher-order states tend to be warmer than synchronous rotators, but for a given temperature, have drier upper atmospheres. However, when strong tidal heating is present, the rotational component implies a strong dependence of habitable conditions on the system evolution and rotational state. Since tidal and stellar heating both decrease rapidly with orbital distance, this results in a compact orbital width separating temperate and uninhabitable climates. We summarize these results and also compare ROCKE-3D to previously published simulations of the inner edge.

Spin-Orbit Resonances↗

Climates of Warm Earth-Like Planets III: Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective

The habitable fraction of a planet's surface is important for the detectability of surface biosignatures. The extent and distribution of habitable areas are influenced by external parameters that control the planet's climate, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. We explore these issues using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model, focusing on terrestrial water fluxes and thus the potential for the existence of complex life on land. Habitability is examined as a function of insolation and planet rotation for an Earth-like world with zero obliquity and eccentricity orbiting the Sun. We assess fractional habitability using an aridity index that measures the net supply of water to the land. Earth-like planets become "superhabitable" (a larger habitable surface area than Earth) as insolation and day-length increase because their climates become more equable, reminiscent of past warm periods on Earth when complex life was abundant and widespread. The most slowly rotating, most highly irradiated planets, though, occupy a hydrological regime unlike any on Earth, with extremely warm, humid conditions at high latitudes but little rain and subsurface water storage. Clouds increasingly obscure the surface as insolation increases, but visibility improves for modest increases in rotation period. Thus, moderately slowly rotating rocky planets with insolation near or somewhat greater than modern Earth's appear to be promising targets for surface characterization by a future direct imaging mission.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. III. Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective

The habitable fraction of a planet's surface is important for the detectability of surface biosignatures. The extent and distribution of habitable areas are influenced by external parameters that control the planet's climate, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. We explore these issues using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model, focusing on terrestrial water fluxes and thus the potential for the existence of complex life on land. Habitability is examined as a function of insolation and planet rotation for an Earth-like world with zero obliquity and eccentricity orbiting the Sun. We assess fractional habitability using an aridity index that measures the net supply of water to the land. Earth-like planets become "superhabitable" (a larger habitable surface area than Earth) as insolation and day-length increase because their climates become more equable, reminiscent of past warm periods on Earth when complex life was abundant and widespread. The most slowly rotating, most highly irradiated planets, though, occupy a hydrological regime unlike any on Earth, with extremely warm, humid conditions at high latitudes but little rain and subsurface water storage. Clouds increasingly obscure the surface as insolation increases, but visibility improves for modest increases in rotation period. Thus, moderately slowly rotating rocky planets with insolation near or somewhat greater than modern Earth's appear to be promising targets for surface characterization by a future direct imaging mission.

Exoplanet atmospheric variability↗

Venus Topography and Boundary Conditions in 3D General Circulation Modeling

We describe how one ingests 3D topographic data from NASA's Venus Magellan Spacecraft radar observations into the ROCKE-3D Planetary General Circulation Model. We also explain how boundary condition choices such as ocean/lake coverage/depth, rotation rate, atmospheric constituents, and other factors influence surface conditions in ROCKE-3D paleo-Venus simulations. Studies such as these should also be considered when examining liquid water habitability in similar exoplanet experiments.

topography↗

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. II. Rotational "Goldilocks" Zones for Fractional Habitability and Silicate Weathering

Planetary rotation rate has a significant effect on atmospheric circulation, where the strength of the Coriolis effect in part determines the efficiency of latitudinal heat transport, altering cloud distributions, surface temperatures, and precipitation patterns. In this study, we use the ROCKE-3D dynamic ocean general circulation model to study the effects of slow rotations and increased insolations on the "fractional habitability" and silicate weathering rate of an Earth-like world. Defining the fractional habitability f(sub h) to be the percentage of a planet's surface that falls in the 0 ≤ T ≤ 100 °C temperature regime, we find a moderate increase in f(sub h) with a 10% and 20% increase in insolation and a possible maximum in f(sub h) at sidereal day lengths between 8 and 32 times that of the modern Earth. By tracking precipitation and runoff, we further determine that there is a rotational regime centered on a 4 day period in which the silicate weathering rate is maximized and is particularly strongly peaked at higher overall insolations. Because of weathering's integral role in the long-term carbonate–silicate cycle, we suggest that climate stability may be strongly affected by the anticipated rotational evolution of temperate terrestrial-type worlds and should be considered a major factor in their study. In light of our results, we argue that planetary rotation period is an important factor to consider when determining the habitability of terrestrial worlds.

Atmospheric effects↗

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. II. Rotational "Goldilocks" Zones for Fractional Habitability and Silicate Weathering

Planetary rotation rate has a significant effect on atmospheric circulation, where the strength of the Coriolis effect in part determines the efficiency of latitudinal heat transport, altering cloud distributions, surface temperatures, and precipitation patterns. In this study, we use the ROCKE-3D dynamic ocean general circulation model to study the effects of slow rotations and increased insolations on the "fractional habitability" and silicate weathering rate of an Earth-like world. Defining the fractional habitability f (h) to be the percentage of a planet's surface that falls in the 0 ≤ T ≤ 100 °C temperature regime, we find a moderate increase in f (h) with a 10% and 20% increase in insolation and a possible maximum in f (h) at sidereal day lengths between 8 and 32 times that of the modern Earth. By tracking precipitation and runoff, we further determine that there is a rotational regime centered on a 4 day period in which the silicate weathering rate is maximized and is particularly strongly peaked at higher overall insolations. Because of weathering's integral role in the long-term carbonate–silicate cycle, we suggest that climate stability may be strongly affected by the anticipated rotational evolution of temperate terrestrial-type worlds and should be considered a major factor in their study. In light of our results, we argue that planetary rotation period is an important factor to consider when determining the habitability of terrestrial worlds.

atmospheric effects↗

Secondary Volcanically-Induced Lunar Atmosphere and Lunar Volatiles: 3-D Modeling and Analysis

The fact that the Moon could have a transient secondary atmosphere due to volcanic outgassing has been known for some time, though typically such an atmosphere was believed to be extremely thin (~10-8 bar) [1]. But recent research by Needham and Kring (NK) [2] suggests that during the peak of volcanic activity ~3.5 Ga such a volcanically-outgassed atmosphere could reach ~10-2 bar of surface pressure. In similar research Wilson et al. [3] proposed a more conservative estimate, arguing that the thickness of such an atmosphere would depend on the intervals between major eruptions and may not exceed microbar densities. In either case a collisional atmosphere could be present, which would control transport of outgassed volatiles (such as H2O) and their deposition in polar regions, where they could be preserved until modern day frozen in permanently shadowed regions (PSR) or buried beneath the regolith. Here we study such a hypothetical atmosphere to investigate its stability, meteorological properties and the effect on transport of volatiles. We use the ROCKE-3D planetary 3-D General Circulation Model (GCM)[4]. The insolation and orbital parameters were set to conditions 3.5 Ga. The atmospheric composition, based on the list of outgassed species presented by NK in combination with our estimates for atmospheric escape, condensation and the results from our 1-D chemistry model, was chosen to be either CO-dominated or CO2-dominated (depending on atmospheric temperature). In this study we restricted ourselves to relatively "thick" lunar atmospheres of 1-10 mb, though we believe that our results will scale to thinner atmospheres as well. We present the results for ground and atmospheric temperature for modeled atmospheres over a wide parameter space. In particular we consider different atmospheric compositions (CO or CO2 dominated), a set of atmospheric pressures from 1 mb to 10 mb and a set of obliquities from 0o to 40o. We also present an experiment of a single major eruption [5] and show that in just 3 years ~80% of the outgassed water is deposited in polar regions. This demonstrates the efficiency of such an atmosphere in delivering volatiles. We argue that a secondary lunar atmosphere could play a significant role in forming volatile deposits currently observed in the polar regions of the Moon.

Lunar atmospheres↗

ModelE Orbits & Calendars

The GISS climate model, ModelE, [an atmosphere-ocean model] has been extended to support the simulation of climates for exoplanets. As part of this process, a more general calendaring system has been implemented that is derived from orbital parameters. The calendar design attempts to preserve the basic notions of the 4 seasons as well as the time of day. These slides provide the basic underlying assumptions for the design and detail how to configure the model to use non-Earth orbital parameters. [One of a series of videos taken of the ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics), a 3-Dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) exoplanet modeling tutorial sessions, May 21-22, 2018, (this slide set was prepared for Day 2, Parts 1 and 2, May 22, 2018) on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com)]

Clune, Tom↗