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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling aerosol bolus inhalations in the human lung with the multiple path particle deposition model: Comparison with experimental data

Existing one-dimensional (1D) models of aerosol dosimetry often ignore mixing mechanisms of inhaled aerosols during their transport in the lung. This mixing or aerosol dispersion results from different physical mechanisms in different regions of the lung. It is a higher order effect, which cannot be directly captured in 1D modeling approaches, and thus is sometimes modeled as a diffusive process. Here, in this study, we improved our recently developed alveolar mixing module incorporated in the multiple path particle dosimetry model (MPPD) to account for flow irreversibility and particle trapping in the alveolar spaces, as well as mixing occurring in the tracheobronchial region. This new version of MPPD was coupled with CFPD-based predictions of aerosol bolus dispersion in the oral airway. The model was used to predict the deposition, dispersion, and mode shift of aerosol bolus inhaled at different penetration depths within the lung for breathing patterns and particle size matching those used in a previous experimental study (Darquenne et al., 2016). Even though a quite simplified approach was used, the computations appear to describe subject-specific and test-specific experimental data reasonably well. The proposed combined dispersion-deposition model can be a useful tool for targeted drug delivery and also for exposure health risk assessment.

MPPD↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boundary-Layer-Coupled and Decoupled Clouds in Global Storm-Resolving Models: Comparisons With the ARM Observations

The accurate representation of interactions between clouds and planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a persistent challenge in climate models, critical for simulating surface energy budget. The emergence of kilometer-grid-scale global storm resolving models (GSRMs) offers the potential for enhanced details of PBL processes in these complex interactions. This study evaluates the representation of PBL-coupled and decoupled clouds in nine GSRM simulations against extensive ground-based observations by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, across six sites encompassing diverse regimes such as marine and continental environments in tropics and midlatitude. By differentiating coupling based on the relative positions between cloud bases and PBL tops, our analysis focuses on the simulation of PBL height, cloud frequency, position and vertical extent. The GSRMs generally exhibit commendable agreements with observed cloud structures and PBL diurnal cycles across different ARM sites. In contrast to the relatively consistent representation of decoupled clouds, discrepancies exist between the simulated and the observed coupled clouds, particularly in areas of intense convection, for example, over tropical rainforests and mountainous regions. These biases are probably associated with the models' tendency to underestimate the boundary layer humidity and the frequency of coupled clouds within different ranges of PBL heights. This study underscores the importance for continuous improvements in the representation of boundary layer and convection within these global kilometer-grid-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The persistent shadow of the supermassive black hole of M87. II. Model comparisons and theoretical interpretations

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observation of M87∗ in 2018 has revealed a ring with a diameter that is consistent with the 2017 observation. The brightest part of the ring is shifted to the southwest from the southeast. In this paper, we provide theoretical interpretations for the multi-epoch EHT observations for M87∗ by comparing a new general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics model image library with the EHT observations for M87∗ in both 2017 and 2018. The model images include aligned and tilted accretion with parameterized thermal and nonthermal synchrotron emission properties. The 2018 observation again shows that the spin vector of the M87∗ supermassive black hole is pointed away from Earth. A shift of the brightest part of the ring during the multi-epoch observations can naturally be explained by the turbulent nature of black hole accretion, which is supported by the fact that the more turbulent retrograde models can explain the multi-epoch observations better than the prograde models. The EHT data are inconsistent with the tilted models in our model image library. Assuming that the black hole spin axis and its large-scale jet direction are roughly aligned, we expect the brightest part of the ring to be most commonly observed 90 deg clockwise from the forward jet. This prediction can be statistically tested through future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Achilles and GENIE Model Comparisons Between Quasi-Elastic Proton Exclusive Events in DUNE PRISM ND-LAr

In this study, we analyze simulated CCQE proton exclusive events in DUNE s ND-LAr using Achilles and GENIE Monte Carlo event generators. We generate events using muon neutrino exclusive flux files of DUNE s on-axis and 20m off-axis PRISM positions and compare various kinematics of proton exclusive events between the event generators. Events are further analyzed in categories according to the number of final-state protons. This study was motivated by QE s dominance in statistics for off-axis events over other channels in which off-axis events are very useful for characterizing DUNE s flux. Furthermore, our motivation for comparing results between generators is driven by off-axis QE neutrino spectra peaking below 1 GeV. In this region, many low-energy proton events are produced in which models have been shown to have disagreements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Introduction to opacity model comparison talks

I'm just giving necessary information to introduce a presentation at Z Fundamental Science Workshop Laboratory-Astrophysics Breakout session. All information are either non-technical or previously published.

Nagayama, Taisuke [Sandia National Laboratories (S↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in the detection of gases in exoplanet atmospheres

Claims of detections of gases in exoplanet atmospheres often rely on comparisons between models including and excluding specific chemical species. However, the space of molecular combinations available for model construction is vast and highly degenerate. Only a limited subset of these combinations is typically explored for any given detection. As a result, apparent detections of trace gases risk being artefacts of incomplete modelling rather than robust identification of atmospheric constituents, especially in the low-signal-to-noise regime. Here, using the sub-Neptune K2-18 b as a case study, we show that recent biosignature claims vanish when the model space is expanded, with numerous alternatives providing equally good or better fits. We demonstrate that the significance of a claimed detection relies on the choice of models being compared, and that model preference does not in itself imply the presence of a specific gas. In conclusion, we recommend treating model comparisons instead as relative adequacy tests, which should be supported by theoretical predictions and complementary metrics of statistical significance to attribute a signal to a particular gas.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feature review of photovoltaic modeling software utilizing blind performance assessment

While confidence in photovoltaic (PV) modeling software has always been essential, the rapid pace of new PV plant developments makes accuracy and credibility more critical than ever. Independent assessments, particularly through blind modeling comparisons, are therefore necessary to ensure unbiased benchmarking across PV modeling software. Previous studies have been limited by a narrow range of models compared, anonymized results, or system size. This study presents results from the first-ever onymous blind modeling comparison, evaluated using both lab- and utility-scale fixed-tilt, monofacial, south-facing systems at sub-hourly time intervals. Seven commercially used PV software tools were compared: 3E SynaptiQ, PlantPredict, PVsyst, RatedPower, SAM, SolarFarmer, and Solargis Evaluate. Predictions were submitted directly by software representatives, providing unique insights into each software’s implementation and resulting prediction behavior. Notable features, including plane-of-array (POA) transposition model, module temperature model, shading model, and performance model were analyzed and compared. Four summary tables compile these features of the software, serving as a resource to help users understand the methodological differences and select the most suitable software for their applications. The software tools show deviations from mean error in annual yield up to 2.5 % in the lab-scale system, increasing to 6.0 % for the utility-scale system. These differences arise from a combination of user decisions and the inherent behavior of the software, indicating the need for continuous and rigorous validation of modeling methods using these software tools against complex, real-world systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validating corrosion models: A comparison of governing equations

Experimental validation of Finite Element Method (FEM) models varying electrochemical governing equations, inclusion of chemical reactions, and time on the resultant damage profile for two galvanic couples is explored. Two anode materials (Magnesium AZ31 and Carbon Steel) in contact with a cathode (Stainless Steel 304 L) were modeled in/exposed to NaCl (1 and 0.1 M respectively for the anode materials) for up to one week. The physics approach, inclusion of chemical reactions, and the boundary conditions required to accurately represent the damage profile in FEM models depended on the galvanic couple materials and, ultimately, the corrosion rate. For high rates of corrosion (i.e., magnesium anode), the Nernst-Planck equation with Electroneutrality was sufficient to describe the damage, while, for low rates of corrosion (i.e., carbon steel anode), the Laplace equation was sufficient. In all cases, the most complete governing equation (Nernst-Planck-Poisson Equation) was not necessary to accurately describe the damage. Precipitation reactions in solution also played a critical role in the predicted damage profile, especially for high corrosion rate systems. Finally, for short time periods (< 6 h), the choice of governing equations does not significantly influence damage profile results. Overall, the choice of physics to reduce error in simulations relies on the boundary conditions, geometry, conductivity of the solution, electrochemical potential differences, and time of exposure. The above results are discussed with regard to accuracy and computational savings.

Carbon steel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decoding diffraction and spectroscopy data with machine learning: A tutorial

This Tutorial provides a step-by-step guide on how to apply supervised machine-learning techniques to analyze diffraction and spectroscopy data. This Tutorial details four models—a reconstruction-focused model, a regression-focused model, a hybrid reconstruction/regression model, and a multimodal model—that use x-ray diffraction profiles and vibrational density of states spectra to predict various microstructural descriptors. In this Tutorial, we cover data pre-processing steps, constructions of the models via dimensionality reduction and regression, training, and analysis of these models. Comparisons of the model’s performance are provided, highlighting the strength and weakness of the various approaches utilized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A parametric study of slow dynamic nonlinear elasticity with comparisons to models

Several phenomenological models that aspire to quantitative description of anomalous nonlinear mesoscopic elasticity are reviewed and compared with laboratory measurements. This class of nonlinearity, best known perhaps for slow dynamics and aging, is seen widely in imperfectly consolidated granular solids but is not well understood. Typical slow dynamic tests show that a modest conditioning oscillatory "pump" strain depresses material stiffness, which then recovers like the logarithm of time after conditioning ceases. Several phenomenological models based on physical arguments have been proposed that predict the material stiffness response to arbitrary pump strain histories during conditioning and recovery. Approximate closed form and numerical solutions to the models are presented that predict the quantitative influence of three key pump parameters: the pump's strain amplitude, the pump's strain rate, and the pump’s duration. Laboratory measurements on Berea sandstone, concrete and a confined single aluminum bead find that slow dynamic responses are linear in pump strain and independent of pump frequency. Measurements also show that, after pump-off, stiffness recovers over times far longer than the pump duration. These observations and others are compared to model predictions. One of the considered models, based on a picture of fast brittle damage and slow healing, successfully matches all these behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the formation of Sedan Crater using the FLAG and HOSS codes

Numerical modeling of explosion crater formation requires accounting for complex physical processes. Numerical validation of explosion cratering is an important step in modeling and requires experimental data for comparison. Models using discrete elements and continuum models have both benefits and drawbacks to their approaches. In this work, we consider both an arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian (ALE) hydrocode and a finite discrete element method (FDEM) approach to modeling the formation of the Sedan crater, the largest human-made crater in the United States. The Sedan crater formed from an underground nuclear detonation in the Nevada desert as part of Project Plowshare. Our models show that the continuum approach of the hydrocode matched well compared to early test time prior to the mound rupture and subsequent fireball venting, when most of the alluvium exhibited fluid behavior. Our FDEM approach matched the final crater dimensions well, after material had settled back into the crater, when material strength and solid mechanics play key roles. Our work shows how leveraging the benefits of multiple numerical approaches can lead to better understanding of complex physical problems, especially problems with limited experimental data. By using a continuum approach to early-time hydrodynamics and an FDEM approach to later-time solid mechanics, we can better understand the different physical regimes of explosion crater formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗