Reliability Model Development for Photovoltaic Connector Lifetime Prediction Capabilities.
Abstract not provided.
Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Modeling CO 2 emissions from A rctic lakes: Model development and site‐level study
Abstract Recent studies indicated that Arctic lakes play an important role in receiving, processing, and storing organic carbon exported from terrestrial ecosystems. To quantify the contribution of Arctic lakes to the global carbon cycle, we developed a one‐dimensional process‐based Arctic Lake Biogeochemistry Model (ALBM) that explicitly simulates the dynamics of organic and inorganic carbon in Arctic lakes. By realistically modeling water mixing, carbon biogeochemistry, and permafrost carbon loading, the model can reproduce the seasonal variability of CO 2 fluxes from the study Arctic lakes. The simulated area‐weighted CO 2 fluxes from yedoma thermokarst lakes, nonyedoma thermokarst lakes, and glacial lakes are 29.5, 13.0, and 21.4 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively, close to the observed values (31.2, 17.2, and 16.5 ± 7.7 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively). The simulations show that the high CO 2 fluxes from yedoma thermokarst lakes are stimulated by the biomineralization of mobilized labile organic carbon from thawing yedoma permafrost. The simulations also imply that the relative contribution of glacial lakes to the global carbon cycle could be the largest because of their much larger surface area and high biomineralization and carbon loading. According to the model, sunlight‐induced organic carbon degradation is more important for shallow nonyedoma thermokarst lakes but its overall contribution to the global carbon cycle could be limited. Overall, the ALBM can simulate the whole‐lake carbon balance of Arctic lakes, a difficult task for field and laboratory experiments and other biogeochemistry models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Thermal mechanical and hydrologic characterization for model development and modeling of deep borehole disposal of nuclear waste in Israel.
Abstract not provided.
Bauer, Stephen J.↗
Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model-Prime Model Model Development Process and Model Description, Revision 0
This document presents the results of revisions to the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain (RM/SM) hydrostratigraphic framework model (HFM) that was constructed for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain. The revised HFM is described as the “RM/SM HFM-Prime” and serves as the base HFM. The modeling efforts and the revisions described in this report have been performed as part of the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Activity that was initiated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) to assess and evaluate the effects of the underground nuclear tests on groundwater at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) and vicinity. This document builds on the content of the internal Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model of the Rainier Mesa Area Phase I' - Base Model: Model Development Process & Data Package Description (N-I, 2014a) and specific document review comments from the UGTA RM/SM CAU Preemptive Review members (Zavarin, 2015). This document provides, where necessary, the justifications and rationale for interpretations and revisions to the hydrostratigraphic framework of the RM/SM CAU. The fundamental objective of the effort described in this report was to revise the RM/SM HFM, particularly in the areas and vicinity of the sub-CAU models, in order to incorporate some of the higher-resolution hydrogeologic interpretations used to construct several of the sub-CAU scale flow and transport models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Process-Based Climate Model Development Harnessing Machine Learning: II. Model Calibration From Single Column to Global
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Earth System Model Development - Energy Exascale Earth System Model (2020 Principal Investigator Meeting Report)
As part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), the Earth System Model Development (ESMD) program area supports significant research in Earth system model development, including major efforts in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project. Convened virtually on October 26–29, the 2020 ESMD-E3SM Principal Investigator (PI) Meeting provided a forum to survey ESMD sponsored research, recent progress made by the ESMD science team and the broader Earth system modeling community within and outside of DOE, foster interactions across ESMD projects, and discuss research gaps and opportunities for future advancements.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Arc Fault Risk Assessment and Degradation Model Development for Photovoltaic Connectors.
Abstract not provided.
Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh↗
Important powertrain dynamics for developing models for control of connected and automated electrified vehicles
Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) technology presents significant opportunities for energy saving in the transportation sector. CAV technology forecasts vehicle and powertrain power needs under various terrain, ambient, and traffic conditions. Integration of the CAV technology in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) provides the opportunity for optimal vehicle operation. Indeed, Hybrid Electric Vehicle powertrains present high degrees of flexibility and possibility for choosing optimum powertrain modes based on the predicted traction power needs. In modeling complex CAV powertrain dynamics, the modeler needs to consider short-time scale powertrain dynamics, such as engine transients, and hysteresis of mode-switching for a multi-mode HEV. Therefore, the powertrain dynamics essential for developing powertrain controllers for a class of connected HEVs is presented. To this end, control-oriented powertrain dynamic models for a test vehicle consisting of full electric, hybrid, and conventional engine operating modes are developed. The resulting powertrain model can forecast vehicle traction torque and energy consumption for the specified prediction horizon of the test vehicle. The model considers different operating modes and associated energy penalty terms for mode switching. Thus, the vehicle controller can determine the optimum powertrain mode, torque, and speed for forecasted vehicle operation via utilizing connectivity data. The powertrain model is validated against the experimental data and shows prediction error of less than 5% for predicting vehicle energy consumption. The model is used to create energy penalty maps that can be used for CAV control, for example fuel penalty map for engine torque changes (10–40 Nm) at each engine speed. The results of model-based optimization show optimum switching delays ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 s to avoid hysteresis in mode switching.
Engineering↗
Combustion plasma electrical conductivity model development for oxy-fuel MHD applications
Oxy-combustion can enable efficient CO2 capture from fossil fuel power plants in combined cycle systems; however, air separation is expensive. In order to directly utilize the high gas temperatures associated with oxy-combustion and offset any oxygen separation penalties, a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) generator has been proposed as a plant topping cycle. Accurately predicting the electrical conductivity of combustion products with the addition of potassium “seed” compound is necessary to evaluate the performance of this modern approach to MHD. In order to make these predictions, improved species collisional cross-section data (momentum transfer cross-section, MTCS) are needed at relevant conditions. A gas electrical conductivity model for use in open-cycle MHD power generation applications is presented, which makes use of updated MTCS data not represented in previous legacy publications. Based on the results of a detailed review and analysis of currently available MTCS data relevant to open-cycle MHD combustion systems, recommendations have been provided for relevant species and a gas temperature range of 1500-3500 K (~0.13-0.3 eV electron energy). Model predictions utilizing updated MTCS data are validated against limited experimental data found in literature for oxy-combustion with potassium seed compound. Model results are presented from a parametric study, which show the effect of combustion conditions and seeding on ionization processes and gas electrical conductivity, highlighting differences between modern oxy-combustion MHD systems and legacy approaches implementing air-fired combustion and high levels of preheat.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Non-Equilibrium Law-of-the-wall Modeling for Improved Heat Transfer Predictions: Model Development and Validation.
Abstract not provided.
Perini, Federico↗
FVCOM-plume – A Three-dimensional Lagrangian Outfall Plume Dilution and Transport Model for Dynamic Tidal Environments: Model Development
Although numerous steady-state effluent plume dilution models are in use, their application in tidal environments remains a challenge. Three-dimensional dynamic circulation models are also inadequate, often due to the lack of required resolution and simplifying assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we present FVCOM-plume—an outfall plume dilution and transport model that operates within the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) framework. It provides simultaneous inclusion of near-field dilution and far-field plume transport processes. The near-field is based on UM3 model using Lagrangian Control Volume approach to compute buoyant plume trajectory and dilution from multiport diffusers. The far-field uses neutrally buoyant particles with point masses and the random walk method to solve unsteady advection-diffusion processes. A density kernel approach is used to compute concentrations at point locations and analyze far-field plume characteristics. The results demonstrate the ability of FVCOM-plume to simultaneously capture near-field and far-field effluent plume dynamics in tidal environments.
Plume Dilution Models↗
Development of Explainable, Knowledge-Guided AI Models to Enhance the E3SM Land Model Development and Uncertainty Quantification
Focal Area(s): (2)Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models. (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge- guided AI. Science Challenge: The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a fully coupled, state-of-the-science Earth system model that uses code optimized for DOE's advanced computers to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and society (Golaz et al., 2019). The E3SM Land model (ELM) is designed to understand how the changes in terrestrial land surfaces will interact with other Earth system components and has been used to understand hydrologic cycles, biogeophysics, and ecosystem dynamics. In spite of great successes, the ELM has several known issues that restrain rapid improvements. For example, the ELM uses equilibrium models to simulate dynamic land-climate interactions and it requires long model spin-up time to identify suitable initial conditions for transient simulations. The ELM lacks built-in uncertainty mechanisms that can improve the robustness of model predictions. The ELM is a holistic, deterministic model system with a rigid design, and in many situations, it is hard to modify the ELM system to incorporate new theory/hypothesis and new data across scales to address emerging science problems (such as predicting the impacts of water cycle extremes). In addition, The ELM is technically optimized for traditional CPU-centric computers and it cannot fully utilize the current and incoming leadership computers for model simulations and uncertainty quantification (UQ). The success of artificial intelligence (AI) has inspired scientists to use AI models to discover intrinsic features from simulation data (Chattopadhyay et al., 2020) and observational data (Reichstein et al., 2019) to gain further process understanding of Earth science problems. However, autonomous AI model training through deep learning usually requires a huge amount of annotated data. To overcome the limitations from the data and computing resources, knowledge-guided AI models are necessary where human-knowledge is ingested in model construction (Banino et al., 2018) and training process (Silver et al., 2016) for efficient learning. Herein, we present a new way that leverages the process understanding from the ELM to guide AI model development for the ELM enhancement and UQ. We hope this study can inspire further Earth and environmental system model developments and transformations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Safeguards in Pyroprocessing: an Integrated Model Development and Measurement Data Analysis
Pyroprocessing is an electrochemical method based on the molten salt electrolyte, mainly the LiCl-KCl eutectic molten salt, to recycle the used nuclear fuel. For a conceptual design of commercial pyroprocessing facility, tons of special nuclear materials, namely U and Pu, may be involved, which could be used for non-peaceful purposes if they are diverted. Effective safeguards approaches have to be developed prior to the development and construction of a pyroprocessing facility. Present research focused on two main objectives, namely calculating the properties of nuclear species in LiCl-KCl molten salt and developing integrated model to safeguard a pyroprocessing facility. Understanding the characteristics of special nuclear materials in LiCl-KCl eutectic salt is extremely important to understand their behaviors in an electrorefiner. The model development for the separation processes in the pyroprocessing, including electrorefining, actinide drawdown, and rare earth drawdown benefits the understanding of material transport and separation performance of these processes under various conditions. The output signals, such as potential, current, and species concentration contribute to the material balance closure and provide safeguards signatures to detect the scenarios of diversion. U and Pu are the two main elements concerned in this study due to our interest in safeguards.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
High-throughput prediction of eucalypt lignin syringyl/guaiacyl content using multivariate analysis: A comparison between mid-infrared, near-infrared, and Raman spectroscopies for model development
Background: In order to rapidly and efficiently screen potential biofuel feedstock candidates for quintessential traits, robust high-throughput analytical techniques must be developed and honed. The traditional methods of measuring lignin syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio can be laborious, involve hazardous reagents, and/or be destructive. Vibrational spectroscopy can furnish high-throughput instrumentation without the limitations of the traditional techniques. Spectral data from mid-infrared, near-infrared, and Raman spectroscopies was combined with S/G ratios, obtained using pyrolysis molecular beam mass spectrometry, from 245 different eucalypt and Acacia trees across 17 species. Iterations of spectral processing allowed the assembly of robust predictive models using partial least squares (PLS). Results: The PLS models were rigorously evaluated using three different randomly generated calibration and validation sets for each spectral processing approach. Root mean standard errors of prediction for validation sets were lowest for models comprised of Raman (0.13 to 0.16) and mid-infrared (0.13 to 0.15) spectral data, while near-infrared spectroscopy led to more erroneous predictions (0.18 to 0.21). Correlation coefficients (r) for the validation sets followed a similar pattern: Raman (0.89 to 0.91), mid-infrared (0.87 to 0.91), and near-infrared (0.79 to 0.82). These statistics signify that Raman and mid-infrared spectroscopy led to the most accurate predictions of S/G ratio in a diverse consortium of feedstocks. Conclusion: Eucalypts present an attractive option for biofuel and biochemical production. Given the assortment of over 900 different species of Eucalyptus and Corymbia , in addition to various species of Acacia , it is necessary to isolate those possessing ideal biofuel traits. This research has demonstrated the validity of vibrational spectroscopy to efficiently partition different potential biofuel feedstocks according to lignin S/G ratio, significantly reducing experiment and analysis time and expense while providing non-destructive, accurate, global, predictive models encompassing a diverse array of feedstocks.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Laying a Foundation for Performance Assessment (PA) Model Development - 19267
Performance Assessment (PA) models are abstractions of real-world conditions. As abstractions, modelers must make a number of decisions regarding model complexity and which features, events, and processes (FEPs) will be represented. To ensure that such decisions are transparent to stakeholders, modelers should document their approach and how this approach influences conceptual model development. This paper describes one such approach. Examples are used to describe an analysis of the potential FEPs. Through the FEPs analysis, all potentially relevant FEPs can be identified. These potentially relevant FEPs are then used to develop a detailed conceptual model known as the Central Scenario, which includes a description of the assessment context, the key features of the site and the closure system, and the expected processes of the system. From this Central Scenario conceptual model, mathematical models can be developed and implemented within modeling software and used to demonstrate compliance to PA performance objectives. FEPs which are beyond the scope of the Central Scenario are identified and used as the basis for developing alternative conceptual models (ACMs) or sensitivity analyses. Once these models and modeling cases are defined, the necessary inputs can be identified and defined. (author)
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗