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DOE OSTI2026

FLYING SERVING: On-the-Fly Parallelism Switching for Large Language Model Serving

Production LLM serving must simultaneously deliver high throughput, low latency, and sufficient context capacity under non-stationary traffic and mixed request requirements. Data parallelism (DP) maximizes throughput by running independent replicas, while tensor parallelism (TP) reduces per-request latency and pools memory for long-context inference. However, existing serving stacks typically commit to a static parallelism configuration at deployment; adapting to bursts, priorities, or long-context requests is often disruptive and slow. We present Flying Serving, a vLLM-based system that enables online DP-TP switching without restarting engine workers. Flying Serving makes reconfiguration practical by virtualizing the state that would otherwise force data movement: (i) a zero-copy Model Weights Manager that exposes TP shard views on demand, (ii) a KV Cache Adaptor that preserves request KV state across DP/TP layouts, (iii) an eagerly initialized Communicator Pool to amortize collective setup, and (iv) a deadlock-free scheduler that coordinates safe transitions under execution skew. Across three popular LLMs and realistic serving scenarios, Flying Serving improves performance by up to 4.79 × under high load and 3.47 × under low load while supporting latency- and memory-driven requests.

Gao, Shouwei [ORNL]↗

NASA NTRS1990

A Solar Constant Model for Sun-climate Studies: 1600-2000AD

Discussed here is the solar constant model published recently (Schatten, 1988), but with a modified phasing and amplitude. This model enables the known solar constant variations to be calculated from known active region and quiet region solar parameters. The features which can be modelled are sunspots and faculae, the only two features which mark the photospheric continuum with their unusual contrast behavior. They include both the active region features (sunspots and faculae) and the quiet region features (global faculae). Although the direct influences of sunspots upon the solar constant leads to short term decreases, an opposite, nearly in phase, 11 year variation in the solar constant is modelled, thereby agreeing with the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) and Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) secular trends observed. This opposite behavior results primarily from global faculae (polar, network, and active region). The main contributors to the global behavior are the network faculae. The model attributes the observed variations in the solar constant entirely to magnetic features in the solar atmosphere. The present model serves purely to model the secular (long term) trend in the solar constant. The model suggests a change of approx. 0.5 W/sq m for the differences between the late twentieth century solar constant and the 17th century solar constant. This supports Eddy's view that this difference could give rise to the glacial increase during the little ice age of the 17th century. Important for present day climate studies, is that it shows the recent peak activity (peaking in 1958) is associated with an atypically high value of the solar constant, with respect to the past few hundred years.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Heat Exchanger Design for Waste Heat Recovery using Additive Manufacturing

With anticipated increases in global energy use and their associated emissions, there are many efforts to improve the emissions and efficiency of many industrial processes through waste heat recovery (WHR). To maximize improvements, the heat exchangers in WHR power cycles must be designed and optimized for a given heat source. Meanwhile, additive manufacturing (AM) is a single part manufacturing technique that provides the opportunity to develop unique and complex heat exchanger designs. Consequently, this work centers on the modeling, design, optimization, and testing of AM shell and tube heat exchangers for WHR. Specifically, a modified one-dimensional (1+1-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) heat exchanger models were developed and validated, with the 1+1-D model serving as the basis for design optimization. After modifications to the design to allow for AM, heat exchanger geometry optimizations were completed, targeting increased effectiveness across a range of physical parameters. Of the designs considered, nine were additively manufactured using Ti5553, and then tested using an external heat source and working fluid. Experimentally, the nineteen-tube, zero-baffle heat exchanger displayed the best overall performance, with the effects of dimensional accuracy, surface roughness, and baffles in the other designs also indicated. Next, the experimental results were used as inputs for the 1+1-D model. Although the original model was able to predict fluid outlet temperatures within 5% differences, larger variations in the heat exchanger performance parameters, temperature differences, and pressure drop necessitated optimizing the pressure drop and heat transfer calculations within the model. Thus, the resulting improved model was able to predict the heat transfer rates, heat source temperature difference, and effectiveness within 15% differences, while showing improvements in the pressure drops and working fluid temperature differences. The improved model serves as the foundation for future work to improve the design and performance of AM heat exchangers.

Spickler, Bailey Ann↗

DOE OSTI2021

Damage development in neutron-irradiated concrete in a test reactor: Hygro-thermal and mechanical simulations

This paper reports the development of a 3D mesoscale hygro-thermal-mechanical simulation approach to predict damage in concrete irradiated in a test reactor. This framework, developed in MOOSE, considers the effects of elevated temperature, moisture content, and high neutron fluence (energy threshold, E > 0.1 MeV) on the mortar and aggregates separately. The first-stage simulation implements hygro-thermal analysis to determine the temperature and RH inside the specimen as a function of imposed radiation energy. These are used as inputs to the second stage, which considers radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE) of aggregates, and creep, shrinkage, and stress-strain response of mortar to predict the expansion, stresses, and damage in specimens made using different coarse aggregates and subjected to different irradiation times. The irradiation time-dependent damage in the mortar is expressed using an isotropic damage parameter. This multi-physics model serves as a predictive tool for damage quantification in concrete due to neutron irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance analysis and comparison of data-driven models for predicting indoor temperature in multi-zone commercial buildings

Building thermal models, which characterize the properties of a building’s envelope and thermal mass, are essential for accurate indoor temperature and cooling/heating demand prediction. Because of their flexibility and ease of use, data-driven models are increasingly used. Here, this study compared and analyzed the performance of gray-box (resistance-capacitance) and black-box (recurrent neural network) models for predicting indoor air temperature in a real multi-zone commercial building. The developed resistance-capacitance model served as a benchmark model for which full sets of temporal data and building information were used as inputs. The recurrent neural network models were trained and tested assuming various available types and amounts of temporal data and known building physical information to investigate the effects of data and information availability. Feature importance analysis was conducted to select the key variables for different prediction targets under different scenarios. This research provides guidance in selecting an appropriate building thermal response modeling method based on the measured data availability, building physical information, and application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of MCNP, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results analysis methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport simulation tool, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results assessment methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport simulation tool, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) con firm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results assessment methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exempli fied through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic and Mitigation-Strategy Insights into NaCl and CaCl 2 Contamination of Proton-Exchange-Membrane Water Electrolysis Using Continuum Modeling

Cationic contaminants are detrimental to proton-exchange-membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWEs). To obtain insight, a 1-D, nonisothermal, multiphase continuum cell model including cationic contamination is developed. Simulations of steady-state cell performance predict decreased performance due to an increase in kinetic overpotential associated with the hydrogen-evolution reaction, which was attributed to decreased protonic-activity within the cathode catalyst layer from proton supplantation with contaminant cations. The accumulation and extent of cation exchange in the cathode catalyst layer depends on the operating current density due to migration. Simulations of cell recovery of potential suggest that a contaminated cell can recover approximately 78% (450 mV) with 24 h of constant current density operation at 2 A cm –2 , with higher current densities accelerating reduced recovery times. Parametric studies show that anode-side acidification at lower current densities inhibit cation contaminant adsorption, and cathode-side acidification at larger current densities facilitate the expulsion of adsorbed cations; for a cathode-side pH of 6 and 5, the cell can recover an additional 10% and 100% performance, respectively. Overall, the model serves as a framework for modeling other aspects of PEMWE systems to address durability and performance aspects, which can assist in improving the viability of the technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2018

Aerodynamic Conceptual Design of Boundary Layer Ingestion Propulsor Systems: A Quasi-2D Through Flow Analysis Method and Multi-Fidelity Propulsor Design Framework

A propulsor design framework for maximizing the benefits of boundary layer ingestion is presented. The performance of BLI is strongly affected by all propulsor components, including the boundary layer characteristics (displacement thickness and form factor) of the ingested boundary layer at the inlet, the radical loading characteristics if the fan and exit guide vane (EGV), the area contraction from inlet to nozzle, and flow expansion at the exhaust cone. A strategy and it's associated multi-fidelity design framework are proposed for an efficient conceptual design of the BLI proplusor which inherently differs from the conventional engine. In the frame work, a quasi-2D through flow model served as the underlying fidelity model is introduced to incorporate the radial effect of the boundary layer entering the propulsor. Multi-fidelity design work is conducted to maximize the predefined performance metrics. On top of this efficient quasi-2D model. computational fluid dynamics based 3-D propulsor models are implemented to refine and validate the design. A BLI propulsion system integrated with fuselage is designed to showcase the framework. The performance of the resulting BLI propulsor system is evaluated via body-force model in unstructured Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stoke (RANS) CFD and improvement is presented.

Lee, B. J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reactive Transport Modeling of Shale–Fluid Interactions after Imbibition of Fracturing Fluids

Injection of hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) into shale formations for unconventional oil/gas production results in chemical reactions in the shale matrix. Our recent experimental study determined the depths to which different types of reactions between the shale matrix and the HFF extended. In the present study, we built continuum-scale reactive transport models to understand the coupling of chemical reactions and the transport of aqueous species in these shale–HFF systems. Calibration of the model with our previous experimental results reveals that it takes hours to months for the shale matrix to completely neutralize the imbibed acids, depending primarily upon the carbonate content of the shale. Both the HFF pH and pore pH affect the location of barite precipitation, resulting in unique barite precipitation profiles extending millimeters into calcite-rich Eagle Ford shale but only tens of micrometers into low-carbonate Marcellus shale. In addition, dissolved oxygen and extracted bitumen are key to reproducing the experimental observation of Fe(III) (oxyhydr)oxide formation in the shale matrix as a result of pyrite dissolution in the shales. A comparison between the modeling results of porosity in the present study to experimentally measured permeabilities in our previous study suggests that chemical reactions occurring at a greater depth than the observable reaction zone might have impacted permeability. Our model serves as a benchmark for efficiently modeling water–rock interactions in similar systems where bulk rock samples react with a solution in batch reactors. Important reactive transport processes were ascertained via modeling, which allows for quantitative prediction of shale–HFF interactions in shale matrices given the shale and HFF compositions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Produced Water and Waste Heat-aided Blowdown Water Treatment: Using Chemical and Energy Synergisms for Value Creation

The project objective was to develop a cooling blowdown water (BDW) treatment process utilizing produced water (PW) and low-grade heat to maximize water reuse and saleable by-product generation while reducing chemical and energy footprints of the treatment. The proposed treatment process consists of mixing, softening, organics and suspended solids removal, reverse osmosis (RO), thermal desalination, and brine electrolysis. BDW samples collected from a local coal-fired power plant and PW samples from two shale gas production wells were used in this study. Each treatment unit was first designed and tested to quantify its treatment efficiency, and its chemical and energy requirements. In addition, a process model was developed and model simulations were conducted based on the experimental results and literature data to optimize the treatment process. A techno-economic analysis was conducted to quantify chemical and energy savings as well as production of 10-lb brine as a saleable product. With the field-collected BDW and PW samples, mixing experiments determined a volumetric mixing ratio 10:1 (BDW:PW) resulted in the best performance of multivalent ions removal and largest chemical savings for softening. Softening of the BDW/PW mixtures using alkaline chemicals (Na 2 CO 3 and NaOH) achieved 95%-100% removal of scaling-forming cations (Ca, Mg, Fe, Ba, Sr) and 60% of silicon, and 10% of total organic carbon (TOC). The mixing and softening treatments yielded an effluent with total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of 23 g/L. Activated carbon (AC) filtration removed TOC to a low level (< 3 mg/L) and further removed remaining scale-forming divalent metals and silica from the softened water. The AC filtration resulted in a slight reduction of TDS from 23 g/L to 20 g/L, leaving behind only mostly monovalent ions (i.e., sodium and chloride) in the filtered water. These pretreatments yielded a feed water that met the criteria of the downstream reverse osmosis (RO) to prevent membrane fouling. A cross-flow RO system was used to further concentrate the TDS of the AC effluent. Various factors including TDS, pH, and applied pressure were examined and optimal conditions were determined for the co-treatment process. An integrated process consisting of mixing, softening, AC filtration and RO was used to treat a continuous flow (0.25 – 1.2 L/min, or 0.07 – 0.32 gpm) and successfully generated RO permeate as product water (TDS < 0.5 g/L) for reuse in cooling operation, and a concentrate (TDS ~ 45 g/L) to be further treated in a thermal desalination unit. These flow rates meet the FOA’s criterion of 0.01 – 1 gpm. Overall, the co-treatment of BDW/PW allowed shorter ramp-up time compared to treatment of BDW alone. It resulted in 40% and 55% savings of Na 2 CO 3(s) and NaOH, respectively, compared to treating the BDW and PW individually for the same level of softening. The co-treatment also resulted in a 29% energy saving compared to treatment of BDW only for the level of TDS concentration. A thermal desalination system was designed using CFD simulations and manufactured in the WVU Innovation Hub for further treatment of the RO concentrate to generate 10-lb brine. The system has a design flow rate of 2 gpm and has been successfully tested. A bench-scale brine electrolysis system was developed for on-site generation of chlorine/hypochlorite (Cl 2 /OCl - ) and caustic soda (NaOH) as useful chemicals for the co-treatment process. Using salt solutions (0.5 M and 1 M), the system achieved faradaic efficiencies of 93%-97% and 70%-77% for caustic soda and chlorine/hypochlorite generation, respectively. An economic analysis showed that the electricity costs for on-site generation of these chemicals were significantly lower than the chemical prices offered by suppliers. An industrial-scale process model consisting of mixing, softening, AC filtration, RO, thermal desalination, and brine electrolysis was developed using the Aspen Plus V9 in conjunction with Aspen Custom Modeler V9. The model serves as a solvable Aspen Plus model and as basis to form the costing infrastructure. In addition, techno-economic analysis considering capital, operating, and transportation costs was conducted. An optimization solution showed that produced water for mixing is still advantageous in low quantities. The optimum solution approaches a leveled cost of water (LCW) of 2 $/m 3 which becomes cost competitive with nominal water treatment prices.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment with SCALE

A SCALE model was developed for the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) benchmark that was recently added to the International Handbook of Evaluated Reactor Physics Benchmark Experiments. This SCALE model served as a basis for criticality calculations and nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with the Monte Carlo code Shift and the TSUNAMI computational capabilities in the SCALE code system. The focus of this work is the assessment of the impact of nuclear data on the calculated eigenvalue results in support of the discussion of differences between the calculated and the experimental eigenvalue result. The differences in the eigenvalues obtained using the ENDF/B-VII.0, ENDF/B-VII.1, and ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data libraries cover a relatively small range of ~230 pcm. Since eigenvalue sensitivity of the MSRE is dominated by the neutron multiplicity and neutron capture of 235 U and elastic scattering in graphite, relevant changes in the ENDF/B libraries for nuclear reactions (such as carbon capture) that caused large differences in other graphite-moderated systems did not have a significant impact. Propagation of nuclear data uncertainty results in an eigenvalue uncertainty of ~700 pcm with the major contributors being 235 U neutron multiplicity, graphite elastic scattering, and 7Li neutron capture. All calculations resulted in large differences of ~2000 pcm in eigenvalue compared to the benchmark experimental value. Several potential contributors to this difference—including uncertainties and gaps in the knowledge of the material, geometry, and nuclear data—were identified. Simplified models of the full MSRE core were developed, and similarity assessments were conduced with the full MSRE core model. It was found that simplified models can serve as adequate surrogates of the full-core model such that they can be used for performing selected nuclear data performance assessments with a lower computational burden.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Concurrent two-way coupling of global and local models across internal boundaries with non-matching discretizations

Coupling local and global models enables efficient simulation of multiscale systems, where global models capture large-scale behavior and local models, with enhanced physics, resolve finer details over a smaller region. Here, this paper presents a mathematically consistent method for coupling physics-based models of varying fidelity across adjacent, non-overlapping subdomains, even when discretizations do not match at the immersed interdomain interfaces. Incompressible Navier-Stokes equations (NSE) constitute the global model while residual-based turbulence model serves as the local high-fidelity model. In addition, a scalar advection-diffusion equation that models the convection of an active scalar field is appended to the turbulence model in the local domain. This scalar field does not have its complement in the global model, giving rise to unequal number of equations at the immersed boundary between local and global models. Interdomain coupling terms are derived via the Variational Multiscale Discontinuous Galerkin (VMDG) method with new developments in scale representation and efficient fine-scale estimation. While transient laminar flows modeled with NSE in the global domain can be resolved with relatively coarse mesh, turbulent flow calculations in the local model require much finer spatial discretizations as well as smaller time-step for appropriately resolving the turbulent flow physics. The proposed framework also accommodates non-matching meshes at the immersed boundaries. Test problems in 2D and 3D numerically showcase the concurrent two-way coupling of unknown fields across the immersed boundaries. The 3D test presents a case with an unequal number of equations, where the scalar field represents the convection of contaminant concentration. This provides more detailed physics in the local region and highlights its application in climate modeling and atmospheric sciences.

Variational Multiscale Discontinuous Galerkin (VMD↗

NASA NTRS1984

Origin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

A climate model resolving the seasonal cycle and the two horizontal dimensions was developed and applied to several problems of current interest. Models of this type are useful when for various reasons a general circulation model experiment is not warranted or not feasible. For example, in cases where the signal to natural variability is small it may be advantageous to first consider such a statistical dynamical model because extremely long runs may be necessary in the application. In this case the simpler statistical dynamical model serves as a pilot study device. The model developed is a thermodynamic model whose solution yields the equilibrium seasonal cycle for the surface temperature field over the globe. The model is essentially a statement of the conservation of heat energy for individual columns of the earth atmosphere system. Various terms such as the infrared radiation flux to space are parameterized with earth radiation budget data from satellites such as Nimbus 6. The primary agent modulating the seasonal cycle amplitude is the heat capacity per unit area which is a strong function of surface type -- ocean surface can store 60 times more heat per unit time than land. By adjusting its few empirical parameters the model can be brought into remarkable agreement with the observed seasonal cycle. The model is then very useful for looking at the dependence of the seasonal cycle of the temperature on such externally defined variables as the Earth's orbital elements (eccentricity, tilt, precession of equinoxes) or the configuration of land-sea geography which can be changed by continental drift.

North, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Future of Planetary Climate Modeling and Weather Prediction

Modeling of planetary climate and weather has followed the development of tools for studying Earth, with lags of a few years. Early Earth climate studies were performed with 1-dimensionalradiative-convective models, which were soon fol-lowed by similar models for the climates of Mars and Venus and eventually by similar models for exoplan-ets. 3-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) became common in Earth science soon after and within several years were applied to the meteorology of Mars, but it was several decades before a GCM was used to simulate extrasolar planets. Recent trends in Earth weather and and climate modeling serve as a useful guide to how modeling of Solar System and exoplanet weather and climate will evolve in the coming decade.

Del Genio, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

AXAF-1 High Resolution Assembly Image Model and Comparison with X-Ray Ground Test Image

The x-ray ground test of the AXAF-I High Resolution Mirror Assembly was completed in 1997 at the X-ray Calibration Facility at Marshall Space Flight Center. Mirror surface measurements by HDOS, alignment results from Kodak, and predicted gravity distortion in the horizontal test configuration are being used to model the x-ray test image. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) image modeling serves as a cross check with Smithsonian Astrophysical observatory modeling. The MSFC image prediction software has evolved from the MSFC model of the x-ray test of the largest AXAF-I mirror pair in 1991. The MSFC image modeling software development is being assisted by the University of Alabama in Huntsville. The modeling process, modeling software, and image prediction will be discussed. The image prediction will be compared with the x-ray test results.

Zissa, David E.↗