On Probabilities of Moderate Deviations of Empirical Measures for Contiguous Distributions
The large deviation principle for moderate deviation probabilities of empirical measures for contiguous distributions is proved.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Moderate Deviations for the Langevin Equation with Strong Damping
In this paper, we establish a moderate deviation principle for the Langevin dynamics with strong damping. The weak convergence approach plays an important role in the proof.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Anscombe-type theorem and moderate deviations for trajectories of a compound renewal process
An Anscombe-type theorem for the large deviations principle for trajectories of a random process is proved. As a consequence, the moderate deviations principle for the compound renewal processes is obtained.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Moderate deviation and restricted equivalence functions for measuring similarity between data
Not Available
Altalhi, A. H. (ORCID:0000000323351164)↗
Moderate deviations-based importance sampling for stochastic recursive equations
Subsolutions to the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation associated with a moderate deviations approximation are used to design importance sampling changes of measure for stochastic recursive equations. Analogous to what has been done for large deviations subsolution-based importance sampling, these schemes are shown to be asymptotically optimal under the moderate deviations scaling. Here, we present various implementations and numerical results to contrast their performance, and also discuss the circumstances under which a moderate deviation scaling might be appropriate.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
CA-ResidueRetentionAssumptionsBT16-BaseCase
As part of the Billion Ton resource assessment projections created in 2016 (see https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/12/f34/2016_billion_ton_report_12.2.16_0.pdf, DOI: 10.2172/1435342) -henceforth "BT16", this dataset was used as an assumption to limit the availability of residues under a "base-case" scenario (BC1). Crop residues that had this assumption applied include corn stover, cereal (wheat, oats, and barley) straws, and sorghum stubble. What is the purpose of the data set? Why were the data collected? Per request for use in subsequent research, we have summarized assumptions for California only and selected years (2020, 2030, 2040) that were used in the BT16's base-case projections for agricultural residues and have provided details by tillage class that limited residue availability for harvest (dry tons of residues that must remain). Note: '10' is a high number that assures that no residue harvested could occur. Note: Tillage classification assumptions are also of importance: a low flexibility was applied, allowing a moderate deviation from a baseline situation (using historic CTIC data on tillage type used in counties for each crop). A moderate flexibility, allows farmers to put land into another tillage type (no till, conservation till, and reduced till) where a higher net present value was calculated. This dataset includes all allowable tillage types by crop, but each tillage type may not have occurred in BT16 simulations.
Davis, Maggie↗
stovertillage2019-bc1040-060
As part of the Billion Ton resource assessment projections created in 2016 (see https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/12/f34/2016_billion_ton_rep...), this dataset was produced and titled a "base-case" scenario. This broader dataset provided an updated assessment of the potential economic availability of biomass resources from agricultural lands reported at the farmgate under conservative assumptions. Crop residues quantified in this dataset include corn stover, cereal (wheat, oats, and barley) straws, and sorghum stubble. We have isolated corn stover in this dataset. What is the purpose of the data set? Why were the data collected?* Per request for use in subsequent research, we have isolated corn stover in 2019 from the broader base-case projections and have provided tillage classification details from this projection. Tillage classification assumptions in this scenario allow a moderate deviation from a baseline situation (using historic CTIC data on tillage type used in counties for each crop). This dataset allowed moderate flexibility of farmers to put land into another tillage type (no till, conservation till, and reduced till) where a higher net present value was calculated.
Davis, Maggie R.↗
Pseudoatom molecular dynamics plasma microfields
Spectral lines are powerful diagnostic tools for both laboratory and astrophysical plasmas, as their shape is sensitive to the plasma environment. The low-frequency component of the electric microfield is an important input for semi-analytic line broadening codes. Here, in this paper, we detail a new method of calculating plasma microfields using configuration-resolved pseudoatom molecular dynamics. This approach accounts for both quantum atomic structure and N-body effects, similar to density functional theory molecular dynamics, but with less computational cost. We present pseudoatom microfields at plasma conditions relevant for recent high energy density laboratory astrophysics experiments conducted at the Sandia Z-Machine, National Ignition Facility, and Linac Coherent Light Source. Compared to established microfield codes we find moderate deviations at solid density conditions and strong agreement at lower plasma densities.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Visualization of fast ion phase-space flow in plasmas well-below, near and well-above Alfvén eigenmode stability threshold in tokamak
Abstract Transport of fast ions along certain local phase space paths, referred to as fast ion phase-space flow, has been systematically measured by an imaging neutral particle analyzer (INPA) in three plasma regimes, which are well-below, near, and well-above the Alfvén eigenmode stability threshold (Du et al 2021 Phys. Rev. Lett. 127 235002). (1) In plasmas well-below the Alfvén eignenmodes (AE) stability threshold, fast ions are well-confined on passing particle orbits without noticeable transport over the phase space. The observed INPA images agree well with the synthetic INPA images, using the fast ion distribution predicted by neoclassical theory. (2) In plasmas near the AE stability threshold, INPA images in the presence of AE activity moderately deviate from those without AE activity. The image difference can be well interpreted by AE-driven, phase-space fast ion flow. Paths of this flow over the velocity space (or streamlines) are reconstructed by the intersection lines of curved E ʹ and µ surfaces, referred to as E ʹ and µ line (where E ′ ≡ E − ( ω / n ) P ζ ; E , P ζ and µ are the energy, canonical toroidal momentum and magnetic moment of ions; ω and n are the angular frequency and toroidal mode number of AEs, respectively). Resonant fast ions move radially inward by gaining energy and move radially outward by losing energy and the trajectory well aligns with the E ʹ and µ lines that pass through the mode resonances near the injection energy of neutral beams. (3) In plasmas well-above the AE stability threshold, fast ion phase-space dynamics shows additional features. Fast ions are transported out of the birth positions so promptly along the streamlines that the slowing-down process from the injection energy is not observable, exhibiting strong critical gradient behavior at local phase space. As a result, the increase of electron temperature is very small, in spite of an increase of beam power by ∼ 45 % . It should be emphasized that the directions of phase-space transport, induced by AEs with different frequencies, structures and mode numbers, do not largely differ.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Weight optimization methods in space radiation shield design
An empirical relation between proton range and material density is used to examine relations between shield weight, geometry, and material composition for shielding against a space proton environment. The optimum material resulting in minimum shield weight usually lies at the extremes of either the lightest or heaviest materials. Aluminum, which has special prominence in the space program, appears universally suboptimal as a radiation shielding material. Assuming square-box geometry (rectangular prisms with two square faces), the optimum shape for the shielded objects is found to be a cube, although moderate deviations from a cube result in only a small weight penalty.
Wilson, J. W.↗
6 CM OH absorption in megamaser galaxies
Absorption in the 2Pi sub 1/2 J = 1/2 Lambda doublet transitions of OH, 182 K above the ground state, is detected in the megamaser galaxies IC 4553 (Arp 220), MK 231, MK 273, MGC 3690, and IRAS 17208-0014. The 4660, 4751, and 4766 MHz lines have intensity ratios moderately deviating from the LTE values (1:2:1). The OH rotational temperatures appear to be close to the temperature of the dust, approx. 60 K. The common characteristics of these galaxies (absence of 6 cm inversion, the optical depths, the infrared properties, the systematic trends in the line parameters, and the rotational temperatures) all suggest that the same pump process is responsible for the 18 cm line inversion in the five megamaser sources. The inversion is probably not due to an excitation mechanism involving collisions with HI or H2. While excitation via photodissociation of H2O cannot entirely be ruled out, the most likely mechanism is considered to be to be a combination of the intense FIR field (populating higher excited OH rotational states) and the non-thermal radiation from the nuclei of the parent galaxies (affecting the excitation within the Lambda -doublets). According to an LVG model of the OH excitation of IC4553, the OH-cloud(s) have to be located close, within 200 to 300 pc, to the center of the galaxy. The excitation of the individual 18 cm lines depends critically on the effective background radiation field and hence on the galactocentric distance of the masing clump. With increasing distance first the 1720 MHz and then the 18 cm main line inversion is quenched, while 1612 MHz inversion is obtained up to approx. 600 pc. The 1612 MHz satellite line is predicted to be more intense than the 1720 MHz line. A critical test for our excitation model is to observe the 2 Pi 3/2 J = 5/2 Lambda-doublet transitions which are predicted to be detectable in absorption.
Henkel, C.↗
Flow-influenced stabilization of liquid columns in a dynamic plateau chamber
An apparatus designed to imbed a liquid column or bridge in an axial flow is described. The bridge liquid is density matched to the water in the external flow to simulate low gravity (about 0.001 earth G). The influence of flow on shape is the focus. Results show that flow modifies static shapes in a way that can be accounted for by static theory even for moderate deviations from cylindrical shape, at least for low flow rates.
Lowry, B. J.↗
Experimental and numerical study of a turbulent boundary layer with pressure gradients
Results are presented of an experimental and numerical study of a turbulent boundary layer with pressure gradients conducted using the recent 'fringe method' with its numerical advantages and good inflow quality. After an inflow transient good agreement is observed; the differences, of up to 13 percent, are discussed. Moderate deviations from the law of the wall are found in the velocity profiles of the simulation. They are fully correlated with the pressure gradient, are in fair quantitative agreement with the experimental results of Nagano et al. (1992), and are roughly the opposite of uncorrected mixing-length-model predictions. Large deviations from the wall scaling are observed for other quantities, notably for the turbulence dissipation rate. The a(1) structure parameter drops mildly in the upper layer with adverse pressure gradient.
Spalart, Philippe R.↗
Adjacent channel interference degradation with minimum shift keyed modulation
Computer simulation results for degradation in signal-to-noise ratio for various values of bit error probability are given for minimum shift-keyed-type signaling in the presence of adjacent channel interference. A serial modulator structure which utilizes spectral shaping is characterized in terms of envelope deviation and bandwidth efficiency. This serial generation technique is convenient for implementation at high data rates and results in signal spectra with lower sidelobe levels than conventional minimum shift-keyed modulation at the expense of moderate envelope deviation. Because of the lower sidelobe levels, the resulting spectra allow denser channel packing than does ideal MSK.
Ziemer, R. E.↗
Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Imprints of cosmic voids and superclusters in the Planck CMB lensing map
ABSTRACT The CMB lensing signal from cosmic voids and superclusters probes the growth of structure in the low-redshift cosmic web. In this analysis, we cross-correlated the Planck CMB lensing map with voids detected in the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (Y3) data set (∼5000 deg2), expanding on previous measurements that used Y1 catalogues (∼1300 deg2). Given the increased statistical power compared to Y1 data, we report a 6.6σ detection of negative CMB convergence (κ) imprints using approximately 3600 voids detected from a redMaGiC luminous red galaxy sample. However, the measured signal is lower than expected from the MICE N-body simulation that is based on the ΛCDM model (parameters Ωm = 0.25, σ8 = 0.8), and the discrepancy is associated mostly with the void centre region. Considering the full void lensing profile, we fit an amplitude $A_{\kappa }=\kappa _{{\rm DES}}/\kappa _{{\rm MICE}}$ to a simulation-based template with fixed shape and found a moderate 2σ deviation in the signal with Aκ ≈ 0.79 ± 0.12. We also examined the WebSky simulation that is based on a Planck 2018 ΛCDM cosmology, but the results were even less consistent given the slightly higher matter density fluctuations than in MICE. We then identified superclusters in the DES and the MICE catalogues, and detected their imprints at the 8.4σ level; again with a lower-than-expected Aκ = 0.84 ± 0.10 amplitude. The combination of voids and superclusters yields a 10.3σ detection with an Aκ = 0.82 ± 0.08 constraint on the CMB lensing amplitude, thus the overall signal is 2.3σ weaker than expected from MICE.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data
After more than a decade of moderate seasonal deviations from the expected climate, it is easy to forget that California is actually prone to instabilities in precipitation patterns that occur on various scales. Using modern satellite and reanalysis data we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past three decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multi-year declines of precipitation in California seem to appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011, and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. It means El Niño needs to be stronger and longer, in order to have a higher likelihood of a positive impact, and the current one does not match these criteria. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation populations during normal and dry periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multi-year drying events. Since storms delivering up to 50% of precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall, thus the importance of their suppression and blockage by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific.
Savtchenko, Andrey K.↗
Global Warming and 21st Century Drying
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of < or = -1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of > or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.
moisture↗
Search for heavy Higgs bosons decaying to a top quark pair in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV
A search is presented for additional scalar (H) or pseudoscalar (A) Higgs bosons decaying to a top quark pair in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The data set analyzed corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{-1}$ collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. Final states with one or two charged leptons are considered. The invariant mass of the reconstructed top quark pair system and variables that are sensitive to the spin of the particles decaying into the top quark pair are used to search for signatures of the H or A bosons. The interference with the standard model top quark pair background is taken into account. A moderate signal-like deviation compatible with an A boson with a mass of 400 GeV is observed with a global significance of 1.9 standard deviations. New stringent constraints are reported on the strength of the coupling of the hypothetical bosons to the top quark, with the mass of the bosons ranging from 400 to 750 GeV and their total relative width from 0.5 to 25%. The results of the search are also interpreted in a minimal supersymmetric standard model scenario. Values of $m_\mathrm{A}$ from 400 to 700 GeV are probed, and a region with values of $\tan\beta$ below 1.0 to 1.5, depending on $m_\mathrm{A}$, is excluded at 95% confidence level.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗