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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law is a techno-economic model that has enabled the information technology industry to double the performance and functionality of digital electronics roughly every 2 years within a fixed cost, power and area. Advances in silicon lithography have enabled this exponential miniaturization of electronics, but, as transistors reach atomic scale and fabrication costs continue to rise, the classical technological driver that has underpinned Moore’s Law for 50 years is failing and is anticipated to flatten by 2025. Here, this article provides an updated view of what a post-exascale system will look like and the challenges ahead, based on our most recent understanding of technology roadmaps. It also discusses the tapering of historical improvements, and how it affects options available to continue scaling of successors to the first exascale machine. Lastly, this article covers the many different opportunities and strategies available to continue computing performance improvements in the absence of historical technology drivers. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science’.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Asynchronous Ballistic Reversible Computing using Superconducting elements

Computing uses energy. At the bare minimum, erasing information in a computer increases the entropy. Landauer has calculated %7E k B T log(2) Joules is dissipated per bit of energy erased. While the success of Moores law has allowed increasing computing power and efficiency for many years, these improvements are coming to an end. This project asks if there is a way to continue those gains by circumventing Landauer through reversible computing. We explore a new reversible computing paradigm, asynchronous ballistic reversible computing or ABRC. The ballistic nature of data in ABRC matches well with superconductivity which provides a low-loss environment and a quantized bit encoding the fluxon. We discuss both these and our development of a superconducting fabrication process at Sandia. We describe a fully reversible 1-bit memory cell based on fluxon dynamics. Building on this model, we propose several other gates which may also offer reversible operation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Challenges of Human-Autonomy Teaming

Machine intelligence is improving rapidly based on advances in big data analytics, deep learning algorithms, networked operations, and continuing exponential growth in computing power (Moores Law). This growth in the power and applicability of increasingly intelligent systems will change the roles humans, shifting them to tasks where adaptive problem solving, reasoning and decision-making is required. This talk will address the challenges involved in engineering autonomous systems that function effectively with humans in aeronautics domains.

artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Challenges of Human-Autonomy Teaming

Human-Autonomy teaming↗

NASA NTRS2003

Nanotubes May Break Through "Chip Wall"

In 1965, just four years after the first planar integrated circuit (IC) was discovered, Cordon Moore observed that the number of transistors per integrated circuit had grown exponentially. He predicted that this would continue, and the media soon began to call his prophesy "Moore's Law" For nearly forty years, Moore's Law has been validated by the technological progress achieved in the semiconductor industry. Now, however, industry experts are warning of a "Red Brick Wall" that may soon block the continued scaling predicted by by Moore's Law. The "red bricks" in the wall are those areas of technical challenge for which no known manufacturable solution exists. One such "brick" is the challenge of finding a new material and processing technology to replace the metals used today to interconnect transistors on a chip.

Laufenberg, Larry↗

NASA NTRS1996

Technology Directions for the 21st Century, volume 1

For several decades, semiconductor device density and performance have been doubling about every 18 months (Moore's Law). With present photolithography techniques, this rate can continue for only about another 10 years. Continued improvement will need to rely on newer technologies. Transition from the current micron range for transistor size to the nanometer range will permit Moore's Law to operate well beyond 10 years. The technologies that will enable this extension include: single-electron transistors; quantum well devices; spin transistors; and nanotechnology and molecular engineering. Continuation of Moore's Law will rely on huge capital investments for manufacture as well as on new technologies. Much will depend on the fortunes of Intel, the premier chip manufacturer, which, in turn, depend on the development of mass-market applications and volume sales for chips of higher and higher density. The technology drivers are seen by different forecasters to include video/multimedia applications, digital signal processing, and business automation. Moore's Law will affect NASA in the areas of communications and space technology by reducing size and power requirements for data processing and data fusion functions to be performed onboard spacecraft. In addition, NASA will have the opportunity to be a pioneering contributor to nanotechnology research without incurring huge expenses.

Crimi, Giles F.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Radiation Testing Electronics with Heavy Ions-The Best Way to Hit a Target Moving Ever Exponentially Faster

In 1972, when engineers at Hughes Aircraft Corporation discovered that errors in their satellite avionics were being caused by cosmic rays (so-called single-event effects, or SEE), Moore's Law was only 7 years old. Now, more than 45 years on, the scaling that drove Moore's Law for its first 35 years has reached its limits. However, electronics technology continues to evolve exponentially and SEE remain a formidable issue for use of electronics in space. SEE occur when a single ionizing particle passes through a sensitive volume in an active semiconductor device and generates sufficient charge to cause anomalous behavior or failure in the device. Because SEE can occur at any time during the mission, the emphasis of SEE risk management methodologies is ensuring that all SEE modes in a device under test are detected by the test. Because a particle's probability of causing an SEE generally increases as the particle becomes more ionizing, heavy-ion beams have been and remain the preferred tools for elucidating SEE vulnerabilities. In this talk we briefly discuss space radiation environments and SEE mechanisms, describe SEE test methodologies and discuss current and future challenges for use of heavy-ion beams for SEE testing in an era when the continued validity of Moore's law depends on innovation rather than CMOS scaling.

space radiation environments↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Emerging Computing Architectures and Opportunities for Process Systems Engineering Applications

Moore’s “law” was the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubled approximately every two years. This trend has distinctly failed to hold in recent years. The death of Moore’s law has left researchers and practitioners in the computational sciences searching for technologies to provide the speedups formerly supported by Moore’s law. Previously overlooked chip architectures and other computing technologies are now receiving more development resources. Critically, these technologies are gaining more mature software support, opening their adoption by researchers in algorithms and applications. In this article, we review some of these computing technologies, their relationship with various algorithms and applications, and their potential benefits (or pitfalls). We close with recommendations for future work by the process systems engineering community specifically.

Emerging hardware↗

NASA NTRS2010

Pathways and Challenges to Innovation in Aerospace

This paper explores impediments to innovation in aerospace and suggests how successful pathways from other industries can be adopted to facilitate greater innovation. Because of its nature, space exploration would seem to be a ripe field of technical innovation. However, engineering can also be a frustratingly conservative endeavor when the realities of cost and risk are included. Impediments like the "find the fault" engineering culture, the treatment of technical risk as almost always evaluated in terms of negative impact, the difficult to account for expansive Moore's Law growth when making predictions, and the stove-piped structural organization of most large aerospace companies and federally funded research laboratories tend to inhibit cross-cutting technical innovation. One successful example of a multi-use cross cutting application that can scale with Moore's Law is the Evolutionary Computational Methods (ECM) technique developed at the Jet Propulsion Lab for automated spectral retrieval. Future innovations like computational engineering and automated design optimization can potentially redefine space exploration, but will require learning lessons from successful innovators.

Terrile, Richard J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

QUBO formulations for training machine learning models

Abstract Training machine learning models on classical computers is usually a time and compute intensive process. With Moore’s law nearing its inevitable end and an ever-increasing demand for large-scale data analysis using machine learning, we must leverage non-conventional computing paradigms like quantum computing to train machine learning models efficiently. Adiabatic quantum computers can approximately solve NP-hard problems, such as the quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO), faster than classical computers. Since many machine learning problems are also NP-hard, we believe adiabatic quantum computers might be instrumental in training machine learning models efficiently in the post Moore’s law era. In order to solve problems on adiabatic quantum computers, they must be formulated as QUBO problems, which is very challenging. In this paper, we formulate the training problems of three machine learning models—linear regression, support vector machine (SVM) and balanced k-means clustering—as QUBO problems, making them conducive to be trained on adiabatic quantum computers. We also analyze the computational complexities of our formulations and compare them to corresponding state-of-the-art classical approaches. We show that the time and space complexities of our formulations are better (in case of SVM and balanced k-means clustering) or equivalent (in case of linear regression) to their classical counterparts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Roadmap for unconventional computing with nanotechnology

Abstract In the ‘Beyond Moore’s Law’ era, with increasing edge intelligence, domain-specific computing embracing unconventional approaches will become increasingly prevalent. At the same time, adopting a variety of nanotechnologies will offer benefits in energy cost, computational speed, reduced footprint, cyber resilience, and processing power. The time is ripe for a roadmap for unconventional computing with nanotechnologies to guide future research, and this collection aims to fill that need. The authors provide a comprehensive roadmap for neuromorphic computing using electron spins, memristive devices, two-dimensional nanomaterials, nanomagnets, and various dynamical systems. They also address other paradigms such as Ising machines, Bayesian inference engines, probabilistic computing with p-bits, processing in memory, quantum memories and algorithms, computing with skyrmions and spin waves, and brain-inspired computing for incremental learning and problem-solving in severely resource-constrained environments. These approaches have advantages over traditional Boolean computing based on von Neumann architecture. As the computational requirements for artificial intelligence grow 50 times faster than Moore’s Law for electronics, more unconventional approaches to computing and signal processing will appear on the horizon, and this roadmap will help identify future needs and challenges. In a very fertile field, experts in the field aim to present some of the dominant and most promising technologies for unconventional computing that will be around for some time to come. Within a holistic approach, the goal is to provide pathways for solidifying the field and guiding future impactful discoveries.

Finocchio, Giovanni (ORCID:0000000210433876)↗

DOE OSTI2022

New Horizons for High-Performance Computing

Here we provide an overview of the past, present, and a diverse collection of future computer architecture alternatives for HPC. The end of Moore’s Law influenced the current HPC architecture focus on accelerated compute nodes composed of CPU and GPU computing components integrated into massively parallel processor architecture systems. There are many alternatives for future HPC directions, with different technologies, computing ecosystems, opportunities for lead user application-driven customization, and the role of open innovation business models. This paper provides an overview of these different new horizons for HPC, an organizing principle to focus future computing research, different public-private partnership models, and the critical role of workforce development.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Science challenges and research opportunities for plasma applications in microelectronics

Low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) are essential to manufacturing devices in the semiconductor industry, from creating extreme ultraviolet photons used in the most advanced lithography to thin film etching, deposition, and surface modifications. It is estimated that 40%–45% of all process steps needed to manufacture semiconductor devices use LTPs in one form or another. LTPs have been an enabling technology in the multidecade progression of the shrinking of device dimensions, often referred to as Moore’s law. New challenges in circuit and device design, novel materials, and increasing demands to achieve environmentally benign processing technologies require advances in plasma technology beyond the current state-of-the-art. The Department of Energy Office of Science Fusion Energy Sciences held a workshop titled Plasma Science for Microelectronics Nanofabrication in August 2022 to discuss the plasma science challenges and technical barriers that need to be overcome to continue to develop the innovative plasma technologies required to support and advance the semiconductor industry. One of the key outcomes of the workshop was identifying a set of priority research opportunities (PROs) to focus attention on the most strategic plasma science challenges to address to benefit the semiconductor industry. For each PRO, scientific challenges and recommended strategies to address those challenges were identified. Furthermore, this article summarizes the PROs identified by the workshop participants.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

New technologies as decision aids for the advancement of ecological risk assessment

Moore's law states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit doubles every two years (Moore, 1975). This has led to a steady increase in the processing power of computers over time, and technology is now enhancing and advancing software and scientific applications, which has enabled computationally intensive methods such as machine learning, data science, modeling, and simulation. The advancement of computers and data-driven algorithms is profoundly impacting people's lives. It is changing the way we work, the way we learn, and the way we interact with the world around us. Here, this editorial will discuss how scientists can benefit from the latest technology advancements and related tools by incorporating them into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) to study ecosystems as a way to create refined assessments and accelerate the turnaround times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

Ghaffarian, Reza↗

DOE OSTI2025

Next-generation electronics by co-design with chalcogenide materials

As Moore’s law approaches its limits, chalcogenides offer a promising route to next-generation computing and sensing, thanks to their topological, magnetoelectric, excitonic, and spintronic properties. Yet the same traits that make them appealing, e.g., exotic properties at monolayer thickness, clean van der Waals interfaces, and strong many-body effects, also heighten sensitivity to fabrication, hindering translation into scalable devices. Progress is further constrained by fragmented knowledge across synthesis, processing, and integration, and by the lack of systematic links between fabrication parameters and performance metrics. This Perspective examines key obstacles in controlling chalcogenide heterostructures and stresses the need for an integrated co-design framework, uniting materials growth, processing, and device architecture to accelerate practical technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

3D Quantum Anomalous Hall Effect in Magnetic Topological Insulator Trilayers of Hundred‐Nanometer Thickness

Magnetic topological states refer to a class of exotic phases in magnetic materials with the non-trivial topological property determined by magnetic spin configurations. An example of such states is the quantum anomalous Hall (QAH) state, which is a zero magnetic field manifestation of the quantum Hall effect. Current research in this direction focuses on QAH insulators with a thickness of less than 10 nm. Here, molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) is employed to synthesize magnetic TI trilayers with a thickness of up to ≈106 nm. It is found that these samples exhibit well-quantized Hall resistance and vanishing longitudinal resistance at zero magnetic field. By varying the magnetic dopants, gate voltages, temperature, and external magnetic fields, the properties of these thick QAH insulators are examined and the robustness of the 3D QAH effect is demonstrated. The realization of the well-quantized 3D QAH effect indicates that the nonchiral side surface states of the thick magnetic TI trilayers are gapped and thus do not affect the QAH quantization. The 3D QAH insulators of hundred-nanometer thickness provide a promising platform for the exploration of fundamental physics, including axion physics and image magnetic monopole, and the advancement of electronic and spintronic devices to circumvent Moore's law.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lossless Phonon Transition Through GaN‐Diamond and Si‐Diamond Interfaces

Abstract Advancing Silicon (Si) technology beyond Moore's law through 3D architectures requires highly efficient heat management methods compatible with foundry processes. While continued increases in transistor density can be achieved through 3D architectures, self‐heating in the upper tiers degrades the performance. Self‐heating is a critical problem for high‐power, high‐frequency, wide bandgap, and ultra‐wide bandgap devices as well. Diamond, known for its exceptional thermal conductivity, offers a viable solution in both these cases. Since thermal boundary resistance (between the channel/junction and diamond plays a crucial role in overall thermal resistance, this study investigates various dielectrics for interface engineering, such as Silicon dioxide (SiO 2 ), amorphous‐ Silicon Carbide (a‐SiC), and Silicon Nitride (SiN x ), to make a phonon bridge at gallium nitride (GaN)‐diamond and Si‐diamond interfaces. The a‐SiC interlayer reduces diamond/GaN (<5 m 2 K per GW) and diamond/Si (<2 m 2 K per GW) thermal boundary resistances by linking low‐ and high‐frequency phonons, boosting phonon transport through the interface. Engineered interfaces enhance heat spreading from the channel/junction and rule out premature failure.

Malakoutian, Mohamadali↗