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Results for “Morris method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A new multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

Process-based models have been widely used for hydrologic modeling, and it is a common practice to use sensitivity analysis methods for excluding non-influential hydrologic processes from further investigation and/or model improvement. This study develops a new method called multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential system processes and parameters. MMADS is conceptually similar to the Morris method for addressing parametric uncertainty, but has a unique feature to address both process model uncertainty (i.e., a process may be represented by multiple process models) and process model parameter uncertainty (i.e., parameters associated with a process model are random). MMADS first evaluates absolute differences of a quantity of interest (i.e., a system model output) by varying process models and/or process model parameter values, and then calculates the mean and variance of the differences for investigating process influence. The mean measures overall influence of the process on the quantity of interest, and the variance estimates influence of nonlinear effects of the process and/or its interactions with other processes. MMADS is an extension of the Morris method from a parameter space to a joint parameter-model space for explicitly addressing both process model uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty. The performance of MMADS is evaluated by using two numerical experiments. One experiment is based on Sobol’s G*-function with ten product elements, and has analytical solutions of the MMADS mean and variance of absolute differences. The other experiment is for groundwater flow modeling which considers three processes (i.e., recharge, geology, and snowmelt) that interact with each other. Finally, results indicate that MMADS is computationally efficient and can identify non-influential processes of complex hydrological systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling

Abstract. Major multi-reservoir cascades represent a primary mechanism for dealing with hydrologic variability and extremes within institutionally complex river basins worldwide. These coordinated management processes fundamentally reshape water balance dynamics. Yet, multi-reservoir coordination processes have been largely ignored in the increasingly sophisticated representations of reservoir operations within large-scale hydrological models. The aim of this paper is twofold, namely (i) to provide evidence that the common modeling practice of parameterizing each reservoir in a cascade independently from the others is a significant approximation and (ii) to demonstrate potential unintended consequences of this independence approximation when simulating the dynamics of hydrological extremes in complex reservoir cascades. We explore these questions using the Water Balance Model, which features detailed representations of the human infrastructure coupled to the natural processes that shape water balance dynamics. It is applied to the Upper Snake River basin in the western US and its heavily regulated multi-reservoir cascade. We employ a time-varying sensitivity analysis that utilizes the method of Morris factor screening to explicitly track how the dominant release rule parameters evolve both along the cascade and in time according to seasonal high- and low-flow events. This enables us to address aim (i) by demonstrating how the progressive and cumulative dominance of upstream releases significantly dampens the ability of downstream reservoir rules' parameters to influence flow conditions. We address aim (ii) by comparing simulation results with observed reservoir operations during critical low-flow and high-flow events in the basin. Our time-varying parameter sensitivity analysis with the method of Morris clarifies how independent single-reservoir parameterizations and their tacit assumption of independence leads to reservoir release behaviors that generate artificial water shortages and flooding, whereas the observed coordinated cascade operations avoided these outcomes for the same events. To further explore the role of (non-)coordination in the large deviations from the observed operations, we use an offline multi-reservoir water balance model in which adding basic coordination mechanisms drawn from the observed emergency operations is sufficient to correct the deficiencies of the independently parameterized reservoir rules from the hydrological model. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding the state–space context in which reservoir releases occur and where operational coordination plays a crucial role in avoiding or mitigating water-related extremes. Understanding how major infrastructure is coordinated and controlled in major river basins is essential for properly assessing future flood and drought hazards in a changing world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying high-impact and high-uncertainty parameters in MiniFuel model predictions

The MiniFuel irradiation platform at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a flexible, high-throughput separate effects test capability. Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments and to achieve experimental objectives. Recent reports show good agreement in the model prediction of target fuel temperatures, but as the capability of the experiments is extended to higher temperatures, the uncertainty in the model predictions must be quantified. To that end, high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to the model are identified. The uncertainty quantification was accomplished through a series of screening and sensitivity analyses. The first analysis utilizes the method of Morris to perform a computationally efficient preliminary screening that considers uncertainty in a large number of the model inputs. The most important parameters identified in the Morris screening study were then considered in a Sobol sensitivity analysis that more robustly ranks and quantifies the uncertainty associated with each parameter. From these analyses, it was determined that thermal contact conductance between components is the parameter that contributes the highest uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty of the MiniFuel model fuel temperature predictions is ±80 °C in the removable beryllium and ±40 °C in the vertical experiment facilities. In conclusion, the framework established by the series of sensitivity analyses presented herein could easily be adapted to fit the needs of accelerated fuel qualification processes.

Fuel, Irradiation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process‐Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process-based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data-constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process-based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam-derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO 2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field-measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter-response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post-calibration GPP R 2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R 2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

ecosys↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process- Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process- based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data- constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process- based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam- derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field- measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter- response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post- calibration GPP R2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

Carbon↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Future Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: Comparative Analysis of an Advanced Hierarchical Sensitivity in Humid and Semiarid Basins

Comparison and quantification of different uncertainties of future climate change involved in the modeling of a hydrological system are highly important for both hydrological modelers and policy-makers. However, few studies have accurately estimated the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty at different spatiotemporal scales. Here, a hierarchical sensitivity analysis framework (HSAF) incorporated with a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is developed to quantify the spatiotemporal contributions of different uncertainties in hydrological impacts of climate change in two different climatic (humid and semiarid) basins in China. The uncertainty sources include three emission scenarios (ESs), 20 global climate models (GCs), three hydrological models (HMs), and the associated sensitive hydrological parameters (PAs) screened and sampled by the Morris and Latin hypercube sampling methods, respectively. Further, the results indicate that the overall trend of uncertainty is PA > HM > GC > ES, but their uncertainties have discrepancies in projections of different hydrological variables. The HM uncertainty in annual and monthly discharge projections is generally larger than the PA uncertainty in the humid basin than semiarid basin. The PA has greater uncertainty in extreme hydrological event (annual peak discharge) projections than in annual discharge projections for both basins (particularly for the humid basin), but contributes larger uncertainty to annual and monthly discharge projections in the semiarid basin than humid basin. The GC contributes larger uncertainty in all the hydrological variables projections in the humid basin than semiarid basin, while the ES uncertainty is rather limited in both basins. Overall, our results suggest there is greater spatiotemporal variability of hydrological uncertainty in more arid regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precursor Processing Development for Low Cost, High Strength Carbon Fiber for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel Applications

Carbon fiber (CF) is central to produce lightweight, high pressure, composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs), which are used for on-board storage of hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles. In 2015, carbon fiber cost accounted for 62% of the cost of a hydrogen storage system, as COPVs were manufactured with T700S CF at $\$ $29.40/kg CF. The high cost of hydrogen storage, largely attributed to the carbon fiber cost, limits the application of fuel cells in vehicles. Therefore, our team endeavored to develop fiber processing to demonstrate carbon fiber tensile properties similar to T700S with a production cost potential of $\$ $12.60/kg or less. Here, the overarching goal of the project was the development of low cost, high strength carbon fiber for composite overwrapped pressure vessels. Within the project, our team investigated a new low-cost, high-volume, high quality polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based precursor terpolymer for the production of carbon fiber precursors, methods for increasing water and energy use efficiency in wash-water/solvent separation, and ultimately developed a multifilament spinning and conversion process for the production of hollow carbon fibers from a segmented arc spinneret utilizing a solution spinning method.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Sensitivity of the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer to the Parameterization of Momentum Flux in the Community Earth System Model

Recent studies have demonstrated that high-resolution (~25 km) Earth System Models (ESMs) have the potential to skillfully predict tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence and intensity. However, biases in ESM TCs still exist, largely due to the need to parameterize processes such as boundary layer (PBL) turbulence. Building on past studies, we hypothesize that the depiction of the TC PBL in ESMs is sensitive to the configuration of the PBL parameterization scheme, and that the targeted perturbation of tunable parameters can reduce biases. The Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method is implemented to assess the sensitivity of the TC PBL to tunable parameters in the PBL scheme in an idealized configuration of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6). The MOAT method objectively identifies several parameters in an experimental version of the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme that appreciably influence the structure of the TC PBL. We then perturb the parameters identified by the MOAT method within a suite of CAM6 ensemble simulations and find a reduction in model biases compared to observations and a high-resolution, cloud-resolving model. Importantly, we demonstrate that the high-sensitivity parameters are tied to PBL processes that reduce turbulent mixing and effective eddy diffusivity, and that in CAM6 these parameters alter the TC PBL in a manner consistent with past modeling studies. In this way, we provide an initial identification of process-based input parameters that, when altered, have the potential to improve TC predictions by ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitive parameter identification and uncertainty quantification for the stability of pipeline conveying fluid

In this study, several uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis methods are used to determine the most sensitive geometric and material input parameters of a cantilevered pipeline conveying fluid when uncertainty is introduced to the system at the onset of instability. The full nonlinear equations of motion are modeled using the extended Hamilton’s principle and then discretized using Galerkin’s method. A parametric study is first performed, and the Morris elementary effects are calculated to obtain a preliminary understanding of how the onset speed changes when each parameter is introduced to a ± 5% uncertainty. Then, four different input uncertainty distributions, mainly, uniform and Gaussian distribution, are chosen to investigate how input distributions affect uncertainty in the output. A convergence analysis is used to determine the number of samples needed to maintain simulation accuracy while saving the most computational time. Then, Monte Carlo simulations are run, and the output distributions for each input distribution at ± 1%, ± 3% and ± 5% input uncertainty range are found and discussed. Additionally, the Pearson correlation coefficients are evaluated for different uncertainty ranges. A final Monte Carlo study is performed in which single parameters are held constant while all others still have uncertainty. Overall, the flow speed at the onset of instability is the most sensitive to changes in the outer diameter of the pipe.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of planetary boundary layer height from ceilometer with ARM radiosonde data

Abstract. Ceilometer measurements of aerosol backscatter profiles have been widely used to provide continuous planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT) estimations. To investigate the robustness of ceilometer-estimated PBLHT under different atmospheric conditions, we compared ceilometer- and radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs using multiple years of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ceilometer and balloon-borne sounding data at ARM fixed-location atmospheric observatories and from ARM mobile facilities deployed around the world for various field campaigns. These observatories cover from the tropics to the polar regions and over both ocean and land surfaces. Statistical comparisons of ceilometer-estimated PBLHTs from the Vaisala CL31 ceilometer data with radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs from the ARM PBLHT-SONDE Value-added Product (VAP) are performed under different atmospheric conditions including stable and unstable atmospheric boundary layer, low-level cloud-free conditions, and cloudy conditions at these ARM observatories. Under unstable conditions, good comparisons are found between ceilometer- and radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs at ARM low- and mid-latitude land observatories. However, it is still challenging to obtain reliable PBLHT estimations over ocean surfaces even using radiosonde data. Under stable conditions, ceilometer- and radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs have weak correlations. We compare different PBLHT estimations utilizing the Heffter, the Liu–Liang, and the bulk Richardson number methods applied to radiosonde data with ceilometer-estimated PBLHT. We find that ceilometer-estimated PBLHT compares better with the Liu–Liang method under unstable conditions and compares better with the bulk Richardson number method under stable conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Prospective Randomized Trial of the Influence of Music on Anxiety in Patients Starting Radiation Therapy for Cancer

One of the most downloaded articles in 2017 from the International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, and Physics was a study suggesting that music therapy during radiation therapy (RT) simulation substantially reduces anxiety. To further evaluate the potential of music's clinical efficacy in the context of radiation therapy, we conducted a randomized trial evaluating the influence of genre-based music chosen by the study participant on anxiety during the first RT treatment session with a method that is applicable to routine clinical practice.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Synthesis and thermodynamics of uranium-incorporated α-Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticles

Hematite nanoparticles were synthesized with U(VI) in circumneutral water through a coprecipitation and hydrothermal treatment process. XRD, TEM, and EXAFS analyses reveal that uranium may aggregate along grain boundaries and occupy Fe sites within hematite. The described synthesis method produces crystalline, single-phase iron oxide nanoparticles absent of surface-bound uranyl complexes. EXAFS data were comparable to spectra from existing studies whose syntheses were more representative of naturally occurring, extended aging processes. Herein this work provides and validates an accelerated method of synthesizing uranium-immobilized iron oxide nanoparticles for further mechanistic studies. High temperature oxide melt solution calorimetry measurements were performed to calculate the thermodynamic stability of uranium-incorporated iron oxide nanoparticles. Increasing uranium content within hematite resulted in more positive formation enthalpies. Standard formation enthalpies of U x Fe 2–2x O 3 were as high as 76.88 ± 2.83 kJ/mol relative to their binary oxides, or -764.04 ± 3.74 kJ/mol relative to their constituent elements, at x = 0.037. Data on the thermodynamic stability of uranium retention pathways may assist in predicting waste uranyl remobilization, as well as in developing more effective methods to retain uranium captured from aqueous environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development and experimental verification of an active noise cancellation (ANC) method for non-invasive sensing

Ultrasonic wave propagation may be used in non-invasive sensing to identify the properties of a fluid in a container. An ultrasonic excitation can be coupled into the liquid or the gas through the walls of the container and detected by a receiver on the other side. However, in addition to this fluid path, another signal will also propagate through the structure and is referred as noise in this study. For most materials, this structural noise will be of higher amplitude compared to the fluid signal due to the large acoustic impedance difference between the solid container and the fluid. In this paper, an active noise cancellation (ANC) method is developed and demonstrated on an experimental setup. It was shown that this method cancels more than 90% of the noise signal in a given time window of interest. A sequential version of this cancellation method is also proposed, and it was shown that its performance improves as the number of canceling excitations is increased. The performance was found to be independent of the location of canceling transducers and position of the silence window but dependent on the width of the silence window. As an example, the ANC method was applied to noise cancellation of a signal travelling through water in a stainless-steel container. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the water signal in the window of interest was increased by 148% from 13.98 dB to 34.68 dB by using the proposed ANC method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cambium 2023 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2023 Cambium data set is the fourth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity (Gagnon et al. 2024). Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2023's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Turbulence in Galactic Centers

Turbulence is a prevalent phenomenon in the interstellar medium, and in particular, the environment at the centers of galaxies. For example, detailed observations of the Milky Way’s Central Molecular Zone (CMZ) revealed that it has a complex and turbulent structure. Turbulence on galactic scales is often modeled using star formation and feedback. However, these effects do not appear to be sufficient for explaining the high-velocity dispersion observed in the CMZ, indicating that additional gas-stirring processes are likely to be operating. Here we introduce a proof-of-concept method to drive turbulence in gas that orbits under the influence of a galactic potential. Instead of relying on a particular physical mechanism, we have adopted a Fourier forcing module and have applied it using a smoothed particle hydrodynamics code. To test our method, we performed simulations of a simplistic model of the CMZ. Our turbulence injection method is capable of balancing the self-gravity of the gas, which allows us to run the simulations for long timescales and thereby follow the evolution of the CMZ. Our results show that turbulence induces a flocculent spiral pattern in our model, analogous to that found in galactic-scale simulations. Furthermore, we find that our turbulence injection method induces inward migration of gas, a result consistent with previous numerical simulations. We submit that this injection method is a promising new tool to simulate turbulence in galactic centers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Controlling P–C/C–H Bond Cleavage in Nickel Bis(diphosphine) Complexes: Reactivity Scope, Mechanism, and Computations

The synthesis of heteroleptic [Ni(P 2 N 2 )(diphosphine)][BF 4 ] 2 complexes and the cleavage of P–C and C–H bonds of the P 2 N 2 ligand in those complexes are reported here. The products are five-coordinate complexes in which Ni–C and P–H bonds have formed to give a cyclic moiety containing Ni–CH$=$NR 2 . The reactivity of [Ni(P 2 N 2 )(diphosphine)][BF 4 ] 2 complexes is influenced by the rigidity of the diphosphine, the steric effect of the substituents, and length of the carbon linker of the diphosphine ligands. Diphosphine ligands bearing a rigid backbone (e.g., dmpbz, 1,2-bis(dimethylphosphino)benzene) or aromatic substituents (e.g., dppe, 1,2-bis(diphenylphosphino)ethane) react with [Ni(P t Bu 2 N Bn 2 )(CH 3 CN) 2 ][BF 4 ] 2 to give P–C/C–H bond cleavage products. Both [Ni(P t Bu 2 N Bn 2 )(dmpe)(MeCN)][BF 4 ] 2 and [Ni(P t Bu 2 N Bn 2 )(dmpm)(MeCN)][BF 4 ] 2 (dmpm = 1,2-bis(dimethylylphosphino)methane) were prepared by the reaction of [Ni(P t Bu 2 N Bn 2 )(CH 3 CN) 2 ][BF 4 ] 2 with the corresponding diphosphine ligands. [Ni(P t Bu 2 N Bn 2 )(dmpe)(MeCN)][BF 4 ] 2 readily undergoes P–C/C–H bond cleavage in nitromethane. In sharp contrast, [Ni(P t Bu 2 N Bn 2 )(dmpm)][BF 4 ] 2 is stabilized by dmpm, a diphosphine with small bite angle, and does not show P–C/C–H bond cleavage reactivity. Computational results show that for complexes bearing less bulky diphosphine ligands, such as dmpm, the barriers for the rate-determining transition states are in some examples higher than 30 kcal/mol with the M06 functional, higher than those for complexes bearing more rigid or more bulky ligands, consistent with experimental studies. The calculated barriers for the first transition state correlated with increased values of the dihedral angle formed by the two NiP 2 planes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗