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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming

Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence‐based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5‐8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science‐based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bacteria-mediated dsRNA delivery for mosquito-borne virus control

Mosquito-borne viruses represent an increasing global public health threat, exacerbated by urbanisation and climate change, thus making effective mosquito control essential. RNA interference (RNAi), a sequence-specific gene regulation mechanism, can be a flexible vector control tool. RNAi effectors, such as double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), can target mosquito genes or the viruses they carry, disrupting development or suppressing infection. However, current RNAi delivery methods are ineffective. Engineered bacterial symbionts offer a promising alternative for delivery, as they can produce dsRNA directly within mosquitoes. However, bacterial RNAi delivery in mosquitoes remains underexplored. We review emerging genetic tools, insights from RNAi and bacteria–mosquito interactions to outline priorities for realising bacterial RNAi as an efficient and sustainable vector control strategy.

Biological and medical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of PFOS on the behavior, growth, emergence, and predation susceptibility of larval mosquitoes ( Culex quinquefasciatus )

Per-/polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been commonly used over several decades for a variety of products and are very persistent in the environment. However, not much is known about their direct effects on aquatic invertebrates and their ecosystems. We examined the survival, behavior, development, and predation susceptibility of mosquito larvae Culex quinquefasciatus exposed to concentrations of perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) ranging from 0.02 to 453.7 µg/L. PFOS exposure resulted in reduced larval survival, with a 48 hour LC50 (concentration with 50 % mortality) of 255.99 µg/L. PFOS exposure also resulted in reduced developmental success and slower maturation to adulthood (and thus slower emergence from the water) compared to control larvae. PFOS also resulted in delays in reaction to prodding stimuli, which were meant to simulate a predator attack, and longer reactions to prodding. Larvae exposed to PFOS also spent more time at the bottom of the water column, rather than at the surface where respiration takes place. Effects of larval mosquito PFOS exposure on predation by unexposed damselfly naiads (genus Ischnura) were not detected. Overall, this research suggests that PFOS impacts mosquito larvae survival, behavior, development, and adult emergence, which could have important implications for food webs or public health given the role of mosquitos as disease vectors.

Food web dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Opportunities in multiscale modeling of mosquito-borne flaviviruses

Mosquito-borne flaviviruses, such as Zika, dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever virus, represent a growing public health concern due to their widespread distribution and the severe diseases they cause. These viruses are difficult to control as climate change and urbanization help mosquitoes expand into new areas, increasing the risk of outbreaks. Mathematical models play a key role in understanding their spread, providing insights at every level—from how the virus multiplies inside cells to how it circulates through entire populations. This review examines various approaches used in modeling arboviruses, including microscale models that focus on cellular and molecular dynamics, mesoscale models that address within-host processes, and macroscale models that capture population-level transmission. We briefly summarize the methodology used for models at each scale, which primarily consists of sets of differential equations with parameters that represent physical rates of change for different subprocesses. We particularly highlight how temperature affects virus transmission, which is key to understanding the impact of climate change. We also show how multiscale models can connect viral replication, immune response, and the spread of infection at a larger scale. This is essential for developing better vaccines and treatments, evaluating disease control measures, predicting the impact of climate change, and improving public health responses to outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing risk for Dengue in Brazil: a multi-dimensional approach

Dengue is the most common mosquito-borne infectious disease worldwide, primarily caused by the Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes. There are approximately 100-400 million cases annually, with roughly half of the global population at risk. In recent years, and particularly in 2024, there has been a major increase in Dengue cases in North and South America. One of the most heavily affected countries is Brazil, where there has been a 230% increase in cases in 2024 compared to 2023. In a report in June 2024, the CDC released a report indicating 3 risk groups for dengue: infants aged ≤1 year, pregnant women, and adults over 65 years old. Due to the spike in cases, it’s important to understand what factors contribute to Dengue risk and create a model to quantify it in order to inform decisions on how to respond. The main 2 parts of this project were a) exploring the spatial relationships between these 3 Dengue risk group populations and aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Brazil and b) creating an index to quantify risk for Dengue in Brazil. The 10 cities with the highest risk were identified, and it was found that the east coast and southern regions are at highest risk. The findings in this study provide insights into cities and areas of Brazil that should be focused on for targeting Dengue spread.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Transmission Dynamics Within Its Endemic Range in Chiapas, Mexico

Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), comprising vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSNJV) and vesicular stomatitis Indiana virus (VSIV), emerges from its focus of endemic transmission in Southern Mexico to cause sporadic livestock epizootics in the Western United States. A dearth of information on the role of potential arthropod vectors in the endemic region hampers efforts to identify factors that enable endemicity and predict outbreaks. In a two-year, longitudinal study at five cattle ranches in Chiapas, Mexico, insect taxa implicated as VSV vectors (blackflies, sandflies, biting midges, and mosquitoes) were collected and screened for VSV RNA, livestock vesicular stomatitis (VS) cases were monitored, and serum samples were screened for neutralizing antibodies. VS cases were reported during the rainy (n = 20) and post-rainy (n = 2) seasons. Seroprevalence against VSNJV in adult cattle was very high (75–100% per ranch) compared with VSIV (0.6%, all ranches). All four potential vector taxa were sampled, and VSNJV RNA was detected in each of them (11% VSNJV-positive of 874 total pools), while VSIV RNA was only detected in four pools of mosquitoes. Our findings indicate that VSNJV is the dominant serotype across our sampling sites with a variety of potential insect vectors involved in its transmission throughout the year. Although no livestock cases were reported in Chiapas during the dry season, VSNJV was detected in insects during this period, suggesting that mechanisms other than transmission from livestock support VSV endemicity.

Virology↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Structural Perspective on the Alphavirus Life Cycle

Alphaviruses are mosquito-borne, enveloped viruses with a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA genome. Alphaviruses enter host cells via receptor-mediated endocytosis, using various cellular surface receptors such as matrix remodeling-associated protein 8 (MXRA8), low-density lipoprotein receptor class A domain-containing 3 (LDLRAD3), and very low-density lipoprotein receptor (VLDLR), which facilitate binding to the viral glycoproteins. Following entry, viral proteins are expressed and nonstructural proteins assemble into replication complexes in host cells, driving RNA synthesis and genome replication. Viral assembly occurs at the plasma membrane, where nascent virions bud from the host cell in a process driven by capsid and spike proteins. Recent combinatorial structural studies have provided detailed molecular insights into various steps of the alphavirus life cycle. These structural insights into the alphavirus life cycle enhance our understanding of viral replication and assembly, with significant implications for antiviral strategies and the development of alphavirus-based vaccine vectors.

RNA virus↗
DOE OSTI2026

Discovering novel therapeutic V H Hs for emerging viruses: perspectives from VEEV selection strategies

Introduction: Evolution or emergence of a new viral variant is a significant public health concern. Alphaviruses, such as Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV), are mosquito-borne viruses which are becoming more prevalent due to expansion of vector habitats. Despite this, there are currently no antiviral therapies or FDA-approved vaccines available to treat or prevent VEEV infection. The increased prevalence of such viruses provides opportunities for novel variants to evolve. Key therapeutic molecules that could be developed against viral pathogens are recombinant antibodies or antibody fragments, such as the variable heavy domain of heavy chain antibodies (V H Hs). Methods: In vitro selections offer a promising pathway for identification of therapeutic antibodies, here we explored isolation of V H Hs using phage and yeast display methodology with three antigen formats 1) recombinant E2, 2) linear peptides of E2, selected based on molecular dynamics analysis, and 3) UV inactivated virus. Results: Here we report four novel “human” V H Hs which bind to the VEEV E2 protein selected using different strategies that include both computational and biochemical design of suitable antigens and whole virus selections. These V H Hs have distinct complementarity-determining regions (CDRs). Multiple VHHs bind to the VEEV viral particles in ELISAs, and we report the peptide epitope recognized by these V H Hs. Discussion: Though non-neutralizing, these V H Hs bind to and sequester VEEV viral particles preventing infection, demonstrating the potential of these V H Hs to perform viral “sponging” which represents a novel therapeutic approach. The selection strategies we report may have applications to further antibody developments against other viruses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Self-Assembling Pfs230D1-Ferritin Nanoparticle Vaccine Has Potent and Durable Malaria Transmission-Reducing Activity

Malaria is caused by eukaryotic protozoan parasites of the genus Plasmodium. There are 249 million new cases and 608,000 deaths annually, and new interventions are desperately needed. Malaria vaccines can be divided into three categories: liver stage, blood stage, or transmission-blocking vaccines. Transmission-blocking vaccines prevent the transmission of disease by the mosquito vector from one human to another. Pfs230 is one of the leading transmission-blocking vaccine antigens for malaria. Here, we describe the development of a 24-copy self-assembling nanoparticle vaccine comprising domain 1 of Pfs230 genetically fused to H. pylori ferritin. The single-component Pfs230D1-ferritin construct forms a stable and homogenous 24-copy nanoparticle with good production yields. The nanoparticle is highly immunogenic, as two low-dose vaccinations of New Zealand White rabbits elicited a potent and durable antibody response with high transmission-reducing activity when formulated in two distinct adjuvants suitable for translation to human use. This single-component 24-copy Pfs230D1-ferritin nanoparticle vaccine has the potential to improve production pipelines and the cost of manufacturing a potent and durable transmission-blocking vaccine for malaria control.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗