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NASA NTRS2011

Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Ocean Variability

Atmospheric blocking over the northern North Atlantic involves isolation of large regions of air from the westerly circulation for 5-14 days or more. From a recent 20th century atmospheric reanalysis (1,2) winters with more frequent blocking persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean, in-phase with Atlantic multi-decadal ocean variability (AMV). Ocean circulation is forced by wind-stress curl and related air/sea heat exchange, and we find that their space-time structure is associated with dominant blocking patterns: weaker ocean gyres and weaker heat exchange contribute to the warm phase of AMV. Increased blocking activity extending from Greenland to British Isles is evident when winter blocking days of the cold years (1900-1929) are subtracted from those of the warm years (1939-1968).

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

NASA NTRS2011

Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Ocean Variability

Based on the 20th century atmospheric reanalysis, winters with more frequent blocking, in a band of blocked latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean, in-phase with Atlantic multi-decadal ocean variability. Atmospheric blocking over the northern North Atlantic, which involves isolation of large regions of air from the westerly circulation for 5 days or more, influences fundamentally the ocean circulation and upper ocean properties by impacting wind patterns. Winters with clusters of more frequent blocking between Greenland and western Europe correspond to a warmer, more saline subpolar ocean. The correspondence between blocked westerly winds and warm ocean holds in recent decadal episodes (especially, 1996-2010). It also describes much longer-timescale Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV), including the extreme, pre-greenhouse-gas, northern warming of the 1930s-1960s. The space-time structure of the wind forcing associated with a blocked regime leads to weaker ocean gyres and weaker heat-exchange, both of which contribute to the warm phase of AMV.

Haekkinen, Sirpa↗

NASA NTRS2003

Multi-Decadal Pathfinder Data Sets of Global Land Biophysical Variables from AVHRR and MODIS and their Use in GCM Studies of Biogeophysics and Biogeochemistry

The problem of how the scale, or spatial resolution, of reflectance data impacts retrievals of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) and fraction absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) has been investigated. We define the goal of scaling as the process by which it is established that LAI and FPAR values derived from coarse resolution sensor data equal the arithmetic average of values derived independently from fine resolution sensor data. The increasing probability of land cover mixtures with decreasing resolution is defined as heterogeneity, which is a key concept in scaling studies. The effect of pixel heterogeneity on spectral reflectances and LAI/FPAR retrievals is investigated with 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data aggregated to different coarse spatial resolutions. It is shown that LAI retrieval errors at coarse resolution are inversely related to the proportion of the dominant land cover in such pixel. Further, large errors in LAI retrievals are incurred when forests are minority biomes in non-forest pixels compared to when forest biomes are mixed with one another, and vice-versa. A physically based technique for scaling with explicit spatial resolution dependent radiative transfer formulation is developed. The successful application of this theory to scaling LAI retrievals from AVHRR data of different resolutions is demonstrated

Myneni, Ranga↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (~weeks) to climate change (~ multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) may interact with monsoon dynamics to produce feedback effects on the atmospheric water cycle, leading to in accelerated melting of snowpacks over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, and subsequent changes in evolution of the pre-monsoon and peak monsoon rainfall, moisture and wind distributions in South Asia and East Asia.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Alternative Inter-Satellite Calibration of the UMD HIRS OLR Retrievals

Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) is a fundamental component of Earth's energy balance and represents the heat energy in the thermal bands rejected to space by the planet. Determination of OLR from satellites has a long and storied history, but the observational record remains largely fragmented with gaps in satellite measurements over the past three decades. Perhaps the most semi-continuous set of retrievals comes from the University of Maryland (UMD) algorithm that uses four HIRS (High Resolution Infrared Sounder) channels on the NOAA polar orbiting satellites to estimate OLR. This data set shows great promise in helping to bridge the discontinuous ERBS (Earth Radiation Budget Satellite) and CERES (Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System) measurements. However, significant satellite inter-calibration biases persist with the present UMD data, principally outside the tropics. Difficulties relate to the combination of drift of the satellite equator crossing time through the diurnal cycle and changes in HIRS channel response function design. Here we show how an ad hoc recalibration of the UMD retrievals among the different satellites removes much of the remaining uncertainty due to diurnal drift of the satellite orbit. The adjusted HIRS data (using no other external information) show much better agreement with OLR from the European Center Interim Reanalysis (EC-Int), longer-term signals in the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment / Surface Radiation Budget (GEWEX/SRB) retrievals, and also agree well with ERBS and CERES OLR measurements. These results augur well for narrowing the uncertainties in multi-decadal estimates of this important climate variable.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

New Insights in Tropospheric Ozone and its Variability

We have produced time-slice simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism. These simulations are forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years and use constant specified surface emissions, thereby providing a measure of the dynamically controlled ozone response. We examine the model performance in simulating tropospheric ozone and its variability. Here we show targeted comparisons results from our simulations with a multi-decadal tropical tropospheric column ozone dataset obtained from satellite observations of total column ozone. We use SHADOZ ozonesondes to gain insight into the observed vertical response and compare with the simulated vertical structure. This work includes but is not limited to ENSO related variability.

Oman, Luke D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Seasonal-to-Interannual Precipitation Variability and Predictability in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere System

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.

Koster, Randal D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Three Decades of Precision Orbit Determination Progress, Achievements, Future Challenges and its Vital Contribution to Oceanography and Climate Research

Although satellite altimetry has been around for thirty years, the last fifteen beginning with the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) have yielded an abundance of significant results including: monitoring of ENS0 events, detection of internal tides, determination of accurate global tides, unambiguous delineation of Rossby waves and their propagation characteristics, accurate determination of geostrophic currents, and a multi-decadal time series of mean sea level trend and dynamic ocean topography variability. While the high level of accuracy being achieved is a result of both instrument maturity and the quality of models and correction algorithms applied to the data, improving the quality of the Climate Data Records produced from altimetry is highly dependent on concurrent progress being made in fields such as orbit determination. The precision orbits form the reference frame from which the radar altimeter observations are made. Therefore, the accuracy of the altimetric mapping is limited to a great extent by the accuracy to which a satellite orbit can be computed. The TP mission represents the first time that the radial component of an altimeter orbit was routinely computed with an accuracy of 2-cm. Recently it has been demonstrated that it is possible to compute the radial component of Jason orbits with an accuracy of better than 1-cm. Additionally, still further improvements in TP orbits are being achieved with new techniques and algorithms largely developed from combined Jason and TP data analysis. While these recent POD achievements are impressive, the new accuracies are now revealing subtle systematic orbit error that manifest as both intra and inter annual ocean topography errors. Additionally the construction of inter-decadal time series of climate data records requires the removal of systematic differences across multiple missions. Current and future efforts must focus on the understanding and reduction of these errors in order to generate a complete and consistent time series of improved orbits across multiple missions and decades required for the most stringent climate-related research. This presentation discusses the POD progress and achievements made over nearly three decades, and presents the future challenges, goals and their impact on altimetric derived ocean sciences.

Luthcke, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS1999

Vegetation Interaction Enhances Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel

The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation significantly, but can reduce year to year variability due to a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular, the multi-decadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 80s.

Zeng, Ning↗

NASA NTRS2005

Separating the Chemical and Dynamical Contributions to the Ozone Change

Statistical analysis is used to extract the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric chlorine due to emissions of chlorofluorcarbons from the observed ozone record. The statistical analysis relies on a model that accounts for natural variations in ozone including the seasonal cycle, the solar cycle, variations in aerosols due to volcanic eruption, and the quasi- biennial oscillation, A noise term includes contributions to ozone variability due to inter-annual variability in the stratospheric circulation not due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, The residual circulation varies due to variability in planetary wave forcing, and studies using meteorological analyses show that the build-up of ozone over the winter is correlated with the planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux. This variability in the residual circulation is not included in the statistical model, and contributes to the apparent ozone sensitivity to chlorine derived from observations for 1979 - 2000. We have investigated these relationships using multi-decadal simulations of our off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM). Our simulations use meteorological fields output from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model (GCM). A 50 climatology specifies the sea surface temperatures to produce the GCM simulation. The CTM was used with these winds to produce two simulations, one in which the boundary conditions for chlorofluorcarbons and other source gases vary as specified for 1973-2022 by the Scenario A2 of the World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment, and the second with source gases fixed to their 1979 values. The same statistical analysis used to derive trends from observations is applied to the CTM output. When applied to the difference between the two simulations the statistical analysis provides a more precise measure of the ozone sensitivity to chlorine change. We are testing ways of including the interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model so that we can derive the same result from the Scenario A2 simulation as is obtained when the statistical analysis is applied to the difference between the two simulations. This should provide direction as to how to account for the changes in ozone due to interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model that is applied to the observed data record.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Llovel, W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Incorporating Satellite Time-Series Data into Modeling

In situ time series observations have provided a multi-decadal view of long-term changes in ocean biology. These observations are sufficiently reliable to enable discernment of even relatively small changes, and provide continuous information on a host of variables. Their key drawback is their limited domain. Satellite observations from ocean color sensors do not suffer the drawback of domain, and simultaneously view the global oceans. This attribute lends credence to their use in global and regional model validation and data assimilation. We focus on these applications using the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model. The enhancement of the satellite data using data assimilation is featured and the limitation of tongterm satellite data sets is also discussed.

Gregg, Watson↗

NASA NTRS2008

Generating Vegetation Leaf Area Index Earth System Data Record from Multiple Sensors: Theory - Part 1

The generation of multi-decade long Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) of Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) from remote sensing measurements of multiple sensors is key to monitoring long-term changes in vegetation due to natural and anthropogenic influences. Challenges in developing such ESDRs include problems in remote sensing science (modeling of variability in global vegetation, scaling, atmospheric correction) and sensor hardware (differences in spatial resolution, spectral bands, calibration, and information content). In this paper, we develop a physically based approach for deriving LAI and FPAR products from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data that are of comparable quality to the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI and FPAR products, thus realizing the objective of producing a long (multi-decadal) time series of these products. The approach is based on the radiative transfer theory of canopy spectral invariants which facilitates parameterization of the canopy spectral bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF). The methodology permits decoupling of the structural and radiometric components and obeys the energy conservation law. The approach is applicable to any optical sensor, however, it requires selection of sensor-specific values of configurable parameters, namely, the single scattering albedo and data uncertainty. According to the theory of spectral invariants, the single scattering albedo is a function of the spatial scale, and thus, accounts for the variation in BRF with sensor spatial resolution. Likewise, the single scattering albedo accounts for the variation in spectral BRF with sensor bandwidths. The second adjustable parameter is data uncertainty, which accounts for varying information content of the remote sensing measurements, i.e., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, low information content), vs. spectral BRF (higher information content). Implementation of this approach indicates good consistency in LAI values retrieved from NDVI (AVHRRmode) and spectral BRF (MODIS-mode). Specific details of the implementation and evaluation of the derived products are detailed in the second part of this two-paper series.

Ganguly, Sangram↗

NASA NTRS2011

Multi-Decadal Change of Atmospheric Aerosols and their Effects on Surface Radiation

We present an investigation on multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on surface radiation using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to long-term data records. We focus on a 28-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2007) during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations) ground-based measurements) and intensive field experiments have become available. We analyze the long-term global and regional aerosol trends and their relationship to the changes of aerosol and precursor emissions and assess the role aerosols play in the multi-decadal change of solar radiation reaching the surface (known as "dimming" or "brightening") at different regions of the world) including the major anthropogenic source regions (North America) Europe) Asia) that have been experiencing considerable changes of emissions) dust and biomass burning regions that have large interannual variabilities) downwind regions that are directly affected by the changes in the source area) and remote regions that are considered to representing "backgroundH conditions.

Chin, Mian↗

NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Decadal Change of Atmospheric Aerosols and Their Effect on Surface Radiation

We present an investigation on multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on surface radiation using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to long-term data records. We focus on a 28-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2007, during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations and ground-based remote sensing and in-situ measurements have become available. We analyze the long-term global and regional aerosol optical depth and concentration trends and their relationship to the changes of emissions" and assess the role aerosols play in the multi-decadal change of solar radiation reaching the surface (known as "dimming" or "brightening") at different regions of the world, including the major anthropogenic source regions (North America, Europe, Asia) that have been experiencing considerable changes of emissions, dust and biomass burning regions that have large interannual variabilities, downwind regions that are directly affected by the changes in the source area, and remote regions that are considered to representing "background" conditions.

Chin, Mian↗

NASA NTRS2003

Evaluation of a Multi-Decadal Simulation of Stratospheric Ozone by Comparison with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Observations

One key application of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is prediction of the response of ozone and other constituents to various natural and anthropogenic perturbations. These include changes in composition, such as the previous rise and recent decline in emission of man-made chlorofluorcarbons, changes in aerosol loading due to volcanic eruption, and changes in solar forcing. Comparisons of hindcast model results for the past few decades with observations are a key element of model evaluation and provide a sense of the reliability of model predictions. The 25 year data set from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometers is a cornerstone of such model evaluation. Here we report evaluation of three-dimensional multi-decadal simulation of stratospheric composition. Meteorological fields for this off-line calculation are taken from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model. Model fields are compared with observations from TOMS and also with observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES), and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). This overall evaluation will emphasize the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of the simulation compared with observed atmospheric variability.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Multi-Decadal Variation of Aerosols: Sources, Transport, and Climate Effects

We present a global model study of multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their climate effects using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to longterm data records. We focus on a 27-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2006, during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and intensive field experiments have become available. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model, which involves a time-varying, comprehensive global emission dataset that we put together in our previous investigations and will be improved/extended in this project. This global emission dataset includes emissions of aerosols and their precursors from fuel combustion, biomass burning, volcanic eruptions, and other sources from 1980 to the present. Using the model and satellite data, we will analyze (1) the long-term global and regional aerosol trends and their relationship to the changes of aerosol and precursor emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources, (2) the intercontinental source-receptor relationships controlled by emission, transport pathway, and climate variability.

Chin, Mian↗