Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Multinomial logit”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

What Makes You Hold on to That Old Car? Joint Insights From Machine Learning and Multinomial Logit on Vehicle-Level Transaction Decisions

What makes you hold on to that old car? While the vast majority of household vehicles are still powered by conventional internal combustion engines, the progress of adopting emerging vehicle technologies will critically depend on how soon the existing vehicles are transacted out of the household fleet. Leveraging a nationally representative longitudinal data set, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study examines how household decisions to dispose of or replace a given vehicle are: 1) influenced by the vehicle’s attributes, 2) mediated by households’ concurrent socio-demographic and economic attributes, and 3) triggered by key life cycle events. Coupled with a newly developed machine learning interpretation tool, TreeExplainer, we demonstrate an innovative use of machine learning models to augment traditional logit modeling to both generate behavioral insights and improve model performance. We find the two gradient-boosting-based methods, CatBoost and LightGBM, are the best performing machine learning models for this problem. The multinomial logistic model can achieve similar performance levels after its model specification is informed by TreeExplainer. Both machine learning and multinomial logit models suggest that while older vehicles are more likely to be disposed of or replaced than newer ones, such probability decreases as the vehicles serve the family longer. Pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles are less likely to be disposed of or replaced than cars, and leased vehicles are more likely to be transacted than owned vehicles. We find that married families, families with higher education levels, homeowners, and older families tend to keep their vehicles longer. Life events such as childbirth, residential relocation, and change of household composition and income are found to increase vehicle disposal and/or replacement. We provide additional insights on the timing of vehicle replacement or disposal, in particular, the presence of children and childbirth events are more strongly associated with vehicle replacement among younger parents.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Teaching Freight Mode Choice Models New Tricks Using Interpretable Machine Learning Methods

Understanding and forecasting the intricate freight mode choice behavior under various industry, policy, and technology contexts is essential in freight planning and policymaking. Numerous models have been developed in prior studies to provide insights into freight mode selection, the majority of which use discrete choice models such as multinomial logit (MNL) models. However, logit models often rely on linear specifications of independent variables, despite potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Moreover, there often lacks a heuristic and efficient approach to identify such complex relationships to define the logit model specifications. To fill this gap, we developed an MNL model for freight mode choice using the insights from state-of-the- art machine learning (ML) models. ML models can capture the nonlinear nature of the complex decision-making process, and recent advances in 'explainable AI' have greatly improved their interpretability. The interpretable ML methods help enhance the performance of MNL models and advance knowledge of freight mode choice. Specifically, the influential factors and their relationship with individual modes are identified using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to improve the MNL's performance. The workflow is demonstrated in a case study of Austin, Texas, and the SHAP results reveal multiple nonlinear relationships predicted by ML models. Incorporating those relationships into MNL model specifications improves the interpretability and accuracy of the MNL model compared to a conventional MNL model. Findings from this study can be used to guide freight planning and inform policymakers and practitioners on how key factors affect freight decision-making.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Capacitated p -hub approach for park-and-ride facility location problem under nested logit demand function: polyhedral approaches

By generalizing the unconstrained p-hub approach for the park-and-ride (P&R) facility location problem under the multinomial logit demand function, the capacitated p-hub approach for the problem under the nested logit demand function captures a broader range of real-world cases. To solve this problem optimally, we introduce a mixed-integer linear program and accelerate its solution by enhancing the branch-and-cut procedure. To address the problem at a large scale, we introduce two other polyhedral approaches: variable neighborhood search (VNS) and adaptive randomized rounding (ARR). Downtown areas in Seoul have a high modal share of public transportation and congested road traffic, yet P&R has not been widely implemented. Therefore, we apply the ARR procedure to solve a real-world problem using traffic and geographic data from the Seoul metropolitan area. ARR performs better than VNS and addresses real-world cases. The solutions obtained by ARR present a phased expansion plan that encourages policymakers to start installing a small number of P&Rs immediately.

Capacitated p-hub approach↗
DOE OSTI2021

Air Passengers' Joint Decisions about Ground Access and Parking

With increasing air travel demand, it is important for airports to evaluate infrastructure investment and demand management solutions to curb traffic congestion and minimize landside energy consumption. Understanding the decisions and choices air passengers make about their ground access modes is important for both developing infrastructure planning strategies and assessing the impacts of emerging modes on airport revenues, particularly from parking. But parking choice is often overlooked in the modeling of airport ground access choices. To address this gap, NREL's Athena team developed a nested multinomial logit regression model based on a passenger survey conducted at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport in 2015. This fact sheet is an overview of the approach and its impact.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Joint Optimization of Multimodal Transit Frequency and Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Size with Hybrid Metaheuristic and Nonlinear Programming

Shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) bring competition to traditional transit services but redesigning multimodal transit network can utilize SAVs as feeders to enhance service efficiency and coverage. This paper presents an optimization framework for the joint multimodal transit frequency and SAV fleet size problem, a variant of the transit network frequency setting problem. The objective is to maximize total transit ridership (including SAV-fed trips and subtracting boarding rejections) across multiple time periods under budget constraints, considering endogenous mode choice (transit, point-to-point SAVs, driving) and route selection, while allowing for strategic route removal by setting frequencies to zero. Due to the problem’s non-linear, non-convex nature and the computational challenges of large-scale networks, we develop a hybrid solution approach that combines a metaheuristic approach (particle swarm optimization) with nonlinear programming for local solution refinement. To ensure computational tractability, the framework integrates analytical approximation models for SAV waiting times based on fleet utilization, multimodal network assignment for route choice, and multinomial logit mode choice behavior, bypassing the need for computationally intensive simulations within the main optimization loop. Applied to the Chicago metropolitan area’s multimodal network, our method illustrates a 33.3% increase in transit ridership through optimized transit route frequencies and SAV integration, particularly enhancing off-peak service accessibility and strategically reallocating resources.

Ng, Max↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling freight mode choice using machine learning classifiers: a comparative study using Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) data

This study explores the usefulness of machine learning classifiers for modeling freight mode choice. We investigate eight commonly used machine learning classifiers, namely Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, Boosting and Bagging, along with the classical Multinomial Logit model. US 2012 Commodity Flow Survey data are used as the primary data source; we augment it with spatial attributes from secondary data sources. The performance of the classifiers is compared based on prediction accuracy results. The current research also examines the role of sample size and training-testing data split ratios on the predictive ability of the various approaches. In addition, the importance of variables is estimated to determine how the variables influence freight mode choice. The results show that the tree-based ensemble classifiers perform the best. Specifically, Random Forest produces the most accurate predictions, closely followed by Boosting and Bagging. With regard to variable importance, shipment characteristics, such as shipment distance, industry classification of the shipper and shipment size, are the most significant factors for freight mode choice decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing the Spread of COVID-19 from Human Mobility Patterns and SocioDemographic Indicators

Mobility is an indicator of human movement through space and time. With the increasing availability of geolocated data (from GPS, accelerometers, etc.), it is now possible to examine individual as well as group human mobility patterns. Human mobility is influenced by both intrinsic (i.e. personal motivations) and extrinsic (i.e., events like natural hazards or a pandemic like the COVID-19) factors. However, the intricate relationships between human mobility patterns and sociodemographic characteristics in the context of a pandemic are yet to be fully explored. Our goal is to overcome this gap by using human mobility data at the census block group level from mobile phones and combining those with social vulnerability indicators to examine the overall spread of COVID-19 at local spatial scales. We used 585,878 weekly visits to 37,871 points of interests (POIs) from Safegraph to quantify mobility indices and social distancing metrics in 2,820 census block groups in the city of Los Angeles (LA) - before and during lockdown as well as during the phase1 and phase 2 reopening. Finally, using supervised machine learning algorithms, we classified the census block groups in LA into High, Medium and Low categories that represented the vulnerability of these block groups based on the cumulative number of occurrences of COVID-19 cases till July 24, 2020. Our results indicate that the tree-based classifiers performed well in comparison to the Support Vector Machines and Multinomial Logit models. Gradient Boosting had the highest classification accuracy of 97.4% COVID-19 with an AUC score of 0.987. The block groups with high COVID-19 cases also had a high concentration of socially vulnerable populations, high human mobility index and a low social distancing index.

Roy, Avipsa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗