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Results for “Multivariable degradation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariate degradation modeling using generalized cauchy process and application in life prediction of dye-sensitized solar cells

Recently, the Generalized Cauchy (GC) process has been applied to capture a Long Memory (LM) phenomenon in product degradation modeling and life prediction. Compared with the traditional fractional Brownian motion that captures the LM using a single Hurst parameter, the GC process has two free parameters (Hurst and fractal dimension parameters) that flexibly capture both global LM and local irregularity. However, all existing GC-based degradation models are for a single Degradation Characteristic (DC). In this article, motivated by a real degradation problem of dye-sensitized solar cells that jointly exhibits multiple DCs, global LM, local irregularity and DC-wise cross-correlation, we propose a novel GC-based Multivariate Degradation Model (GC-MDM) to simultaneously capture the aforementioned effects. A maximum likelihood estimation approach is developed to estimate parameters of the GC-MDM. Subsequently, product life prediction based on the GC-MDM is developed. The proposed GC-MDM is validated through a simulation study and a physical experiment of dye-sensitized solar cells. Furthermore, results show that the proposed GC-MDM fundamentally improves the life prediction accuracy in comparison with conventional degradation models which significantly misestimate the uncertainty of product life.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Battery Life Models

Predictive battery life models are commonly utilized to extrapolate degradation trends observed during accelerated aging tests for simulation of degradation in real-world applications. Thus, fitting accelerated aging data as accurately as possible and with low uncertainty is crucial for making believable projections of battery lifetime, but it is challenging to identify algebraic expressions that accurately fit multivariate degradation trends. A review of models published in literature reveal some common expressions for fitting calendar aging data, which is only dependent on temperature and state-of-charge, but no consistency across many models for fitting cycle aging data, indicating the need for a statistically rigorous data driven approach for developing empirical models. This talk will describe a machine-learning assisted method for identification of predictive battery life models utilizing bilevel optimization and symbolic regression. Bilevel optimization with cross-validation is used to statistically determine cell- and stress-dependent model parameters, while symbolic regression identifies both linear and multiplicative candidate expressions to predict stress-dependent degradation rates by selecting low-order subsets of features from a generated feature library. Because model expressions are identified empirically, it is crucial to ensure resulting models behave according to physical expectations, so the stability of models for interpolation or extrapolation is interrogated qualitatively through simulation and quantitatively through cross-validation and uncertainty quantification via bootstrap resampling. This model identification approach substantially improves upon models identified purely using expert judgement in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. Model simulation and validation is then conducted by deriving a state-equation form of the predictive model, enabling simulation of battery aging under dynamic stresses. This enables validation of the predictive battery model on lab-based tests with varying conditions or on drive-cycle or application-cycle testing protocols. Parameter uncertainty can be carried forward into model simulation, giving lifetime estimates and confidence windows for cell- or system-level lifetime. The financial impact of battery model uncertainty can be estimated by incorporating uncertainty into a technoeconomic model.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Accurate Battery Lifetime Models with Uncertainty

Reduced-order battery lifetime models, which consist of algebraic expressions for various aging modes, are widely utilized for extrapolating degradation trends from accelerated aging tests to real-world aging scenarios. Identifying models with high accuracy and low uncertainty is crucial for ensuring that model extrapolations are believable, however, it is difficult to compose expressions that accurately predict multivariate data trends; a review of cycling degradation models from literature reveals a wide variety of functional relationships. Here, a machine-learning assisted model identification method is utilized to fit degradation in a stand-out LFP-Gr aging data set, with uncertainty quantified by bootstrap resampling. The model identified in this work results in approximately half the mean absolute error of a human expert model. Models are validated by converting to a state-equation form and comparing predictions against cells aging under varying loads. Parameter uncertainty is carried forward into an energy storage system simulation to estimate the impact of aging model uncertainty on system lifetime. The new model identification method used here reduces life-prediction uncertainty by more than a factor of three (86% ± 5% relative capacity at 10 years for human-expert model, 88.5% ± 1.5% for machine-learning assisted model), empowering more confident estimates of energy storage system lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2004

Autonomous Propulsion System Technology Being Developed to Optimize Engine Performance Throughout the Lifecycle

The goal of the Autonomous Propulsion System Technology (APST) project is to reduce pilot workload under both normal and anomalous conditions. Ongoing work under APST develops and leverages technologies that provide autonomous engine monitoring, diagnosing, and controller adaptation functions, resulting in an integrated suite of algorithms that maintain the propulsion system's performance and safety throughout its life. Engine-to-engine performance variation occurs among new engines because of manufacturing tolerances and assembly practices. As an engine wears, the performance changes as operability limits are reached. In addition to these normal phenomena, other unanticipated events such as sensor failures, bird ingestion, or component faults may occur, affecting pilot workload as well as compromising safety. APST will adapt the controller as necessary to achieve optimal performance for a normal aging engine, and the safety net of APST algorithms will examine and interpret data from a variety of onboard sources to detect, isolate, and if possible, accommodate faults. Situations that cannot be accommodated within the faulted engine itself will be referred to a higher level vehicle management system. This system will have the authority to redistribute the faulted engine's functionality among other engines, or to replan the mission based on this new engine health information. Work is currently underway in the areas of adaptive control to compensate for engine degradation due to aging, data fusion for diagnostics and prognostics of specific sensor and component faults, and foreign object ingestion detection. In addition, a framework is being defined for integrating all the components of APST into a unified system. A multivariable, adaptive, multimode control algorithm has been developed that accommodates degradation-induced thrust disturbances during throttle transients. The baseline controller of the engine model currently being investigated has multiple control modes that are selected according to some performance or operational criteria. As the engine degrades, parameters shift from their nominal values. Thus, when a new control mode is swapped in, a variable that is being brought under control might have an excessive initial error. The new adaptive algorithm adjusts the controller gains on the basis of the level of degradation to minimize the disruptive influence of the large error on other variables and to recover the desired thrust response.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Feature combinations and the divergence criterion

Classifying large quantities of multidimensional remotely sensed agricultural data requires efficient and effective classification techniques and the construction of certain transformations of a dimension reducing, information preserving nature. The construction of transformations that minimally degrade information (i.e., class separability) is described. Linear dimension reducing transformations for multivariate normal populations are presented. Information content is measured by divergence.

Decell, H. P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Adaptive Gas Turbine Engine Control for Deterioration Compensation Due to Aging

This paper presents an ad hoc adaptive, multivariable controller tuning rule that compensates for a thrust response variation in an engine whose performance has been degraded though use and wear. The upset appears when a large throttle transient is performed such that the engine controller switches from low-speed to high-speed mode. A relationship was observed between the level of engine degradation and the overshoot in engine temperature ratio, which was determined to cause the thrust response variation. This relationship was used to adapt the controller. The method is shown to work very well up to the operability limits of the engine. Additionally, since the level of degradation can be estimated from sensor data, it would be feasible to implement the adaptive control algorithm on-line.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Piloted Evaluation of Damage Accommodating Flight Control Using a Remotely Piloted Vehicle

Toward the goal of reducing the fatal accident rate of large transport airplanes due to loss of control, the NASA Aviation Safety Program has conducted research into flight control technologies that can provide resilient control of airplanes under adverse flight conditions, including damage and failure. As part of the safety program s Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control Project, the NASA Airborne Subscale Transport Aircraft Research system was designed to address the challenges associated with the safe and efficient subscale flight testing of research control laws under adverse flight conditions. This paper presents the results of a series of pilot evaluations of several flight control algorithms used during an offset-to-landing task conducted at altitude. The purpose of this investigation was to assess the ability of various flight control technologies to prevent loss of control as stability and control characteristics were degraded. During the course of 8 research flights, data were recorded while one task was repeatedly executed by a single evaluation pilot. Two generic failures, which degraded stability and control characteristics, were simulated inflight for each of the 9 different flight control laws that were tested. The flight control laws included three different adaptive control methodologies, several linear multivariable designs, a linear robust design, a linear stability augmentation system, and a direct open-loop control mode. Based on pilot Cooper-Harper Ratings obtained for this test, the adaptive flight control laws provided the greatest overall benefit for the stability and control degradation scenarios that were considered. Also, all controllers tested provided a significant improvement in handling qualities over the direct open-loop control mode.

Cunningham, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2024

PFAS remediation: Evaluating the infrared spectra of complex gaseous mixtures to determine the efficacy of thermal decomposition of PFAS

Due to their widespread production and known environmental contamination, the need for the detection and remediation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) has grown quickly. While destructive thermal treatment of PFAS at low temperatures (e.g., 200 to 500oC) is of interest due to lower energy and infrastructure requirements, the range of possible degradation products remains underexplored. To better understand the low temperature decomposition of PFAS species, we have coupled gas-phase infrared spectroscopy with a multivariate curve resolution (MCR) analysis and a database of high-resolution PFAS infrared reference spectra to detect and quantify a complex mixture resulting from potassium perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS-K) decomposition. Nine prevalent decomposition products (namely smaller perfluorocarbon species) are identified and quantified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Identifying environmental features for land management decisions

Multivariate statistical analysis and imaging processing techniques are being applied to the study of arid/semiarid environments, with emphasis on desertification. Field level indicators of land-soil biota degradation are being sifted out with staging up to the low aircraft reconnaissance level, to LANDSAT TM & MSS, and even to the AVHRR level. Three completed projects are reviewed: riparian habitat on the Humboldt River floodplain, Salt Lake County Urban expansion detection, and salinization/desertification detection in the delta area. Beginning projects summarized include: comparative condition of rangeland in Rush Valley; modeling a GIS/remote sensing data base for Cache County; universal soil loss equation applied to Pinyon-Juniper; relating MSS to ground radiometry near Battle Mountain; and riparian habitat mapping on Mary's River, Nevada.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bio-inspired gas sensing: boosting performance with sensor optimization guided by “machine learning”

The performance of existing gas sensors often degrades in field conditions because of the loss of measurement accuracy in the presence of interferences. Thus, new sensing approaches are required with improved sensor selectivity. We are developing a new generation of gas sensors, known as multivariable sensors, that have several independent responses for multi-gas detection with a single sensor. In this study, we analyze the capabilities of natural and fabricated photonic three-dimensional (3-D) nanostructures as sensors for the detection of different gaseous species, such as vapors and non-condensable gases. We employed bare Morpho butterfly wing scales to control their gas selectivity with different illumination angles. Next, we chemically functionalized Morpho butterfly wing scales with a fluorinated silane to boost the response of these nanostructures to the vapors of interest and to suppress the response to ambient humidity. Further, we followed our previously developed design rules for sensing nanostructures and fabricated bioinspired inorganic 3-D nanostructures to achieve functionality beyond natural Morpho scales. These fabricated nanostructures have embedded catalytically active gold nanoparticles to operate at high temperatures of ≈300 °C for the detection of gases for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) applications. Our performance advances in the detection of multiple gaseous species with specific nanostructure designs were achieved by coupling the spectral responses of these nanostructures with machine learning (a.k.a. multivariate analysis, chemometrics) tools. Our newly acquired knowledge from studies of these natural and fabricated inorganic nanostructures coupled with machine learning data analytics allowed us to advance our design rules for sensing nanostructures toward the required gas selectivity for numerous gas monitoring scenarios at room and high temperatures for industrial, environmental, and other applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Safe Extremum Seeking for Accelerators

Here, we demonstrate the recent designs of safe extremum seeking (Safe ES) on the 1-km-long charged particle accelerator at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). Safe ES is a modification of extremum seeking (ES) which, in addition to minimizing an analytically unknown cost, also employs a safety filter based on an analytically unknown control barrier function (CBF) safety metric. Tuning is necessitated by accelerators being large complex systems, with many drifting parameters due to thermal effects and degradation. At the same time, safe operation (the maintenance of state constraints) is crucial, as damage brings astronomical costs, both financially and in operation downtime. Our measured (but analytically unknown) safety metric is the beam current. We perform multivariable Safe ES on three accelerator applications, in which we adapt 4, 6, and 3 magnet strength parameters, respectively. Two of the three applications are for validated simulation models of beamlines at LANSCE: the first for the proton radiography (pRad) beamline of 800-MeV protons for spot size tuning; the second on a high-performance code, HPSim, for tuning the low-energy beam transport (LEBT) region that contains a beam of 750-keV protons. The third is an experimental tuning of the steering magnets in the LEBT at LANSCE.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transfer Learning-Based Independent Component Analysis

Understanding the underlying component structure is crucial for multivariate signal analysis. Among all the techniques that try to learn the latent structure, independent component analysis (ICA) is one of the most important and popular methods, which aims to extract independent components from multivariate signals and enables further analysis. For example, in electroencephalogram (EEG) analysis, artifacts filtering and disease detection are conducted based on the independent components of the signals. One critical challenge in existing ICA approaches is that the component extraction accuracy may degrade when the available data of a unit are limited. To address this issue, this paper proposes a transfer learning-based ICA method by innovatively transferring component distribution from a source domain, so that accurate component extraction results can be achieved even when only limited data are available in the target domain. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that leverages transfer learning to improve ICA accuracy with limited available data. In particular, we first extract all the independent components from the source domain by maximizing the log-likelihood function with a Newton-like method on a smooth manifold. Then for the target domain, the component with the largest negentropy is extracted in each round. To effectively leverage the knowledge from the source domain and to prevent the negative transfer, we try to find a component in the source domain that matches the component we are extracting. The probability density function of the matched component will then be used to improve the component extraction accuracy if such matched component can be found; otherwise, no knowledge will be transferred. Finally, numerical simulations and a case study with electrocardiogram (ECG) data are conducted, showing the effectiveness of the proposed method in transferring knowledge and reducing negative transfer.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reducing systematic bias in machine learning applications to J/ψ signal extraction in high-energy nuclear physics

Machine learning techniques are increasingly used in high-energy nuclear physics because they can exploit multivariate correlations more efficiently than conventional cut-based analyses. A central challenge is the construction of training samples that faithfully reproduce the detector response observed in data. Signal samples are usually derived from detector simulations; therefore, mismatches between simulation and data can degrade classifier performance and introduce systematic biases. This work presents two practical correction procedures, namely cumulative distribution function (CDF) mapping and a shift-and-scale transformation, to align simulated signal features with those measured in data. Their performance is demonstrated with $J$/$\psi$ yield measurements in $\sqrt{s_{nn}}$ = 200 GeV Ru+Ru and Zr+Zr collisions recorded by STAR. A set of self-consistency tests shows that these procedures substantially suppress the systematic bias associated with data-simulation discrepancies in machine-learning-based signal extraction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Robustness enhancement of neurocontroller and state estimator

The feasibility of enhancing neurocontrol robustness, through training of the neurocontroller and state estimator in the presence of system uncertainties, is investigated on the example of a multivariable aircraft control problem. The performance and robustness of the newly trained neurocontroller are compared to those for an existing neurocontrol design scheme. The newly designed dynamic neurocontroller exhibits a better trade-off between phase and gain stability margins, and it is significantly more robust to degradations of the plant dynamics.

Troudet, Terry↗
DOE OSTI2020

WEC fault modelling and condition monitoring: A graph-theoretic approach

The nature of wave resources usually requires wave energy converter (WEC) components to handle peak loads (i.e., torques, forces, and powers) that are many times greater than their average loads, accelerating equipment degradation. Moreover, due to their isolated nature and harsh operating environment, WEC systems are projected to possess high operations and maintenance (O&M) cost, i.e., around 27% of their leveled cost of energy. As such, developing techniques to mitigate these costs through the application of condition monitoring and fault tolerant control will significantly impact the economic feasibility of grid connected WEC power. Toward this goal, models of faulty components are developed in the open source modeling platform, WEC-Sim, to estimate the performance and measurable states of a WEC operating with likely device and sensor failures. Two types of faulty component models are then applied to a point absorber WEC model with basic controller damping and spring forces. Resulting changes in device behavior are recorded as a benchmark, and a graph-theoretic approach is proposed for fault detection and identification utilizing multivariate time series. Simulation results demonstrate that these faults can greatly affect the WEC performance, and that the proposed method can effectively detect and classify different types of faults.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind Turbine Gearbox Failure Detection Through Cumulative Sum of Multivariate Time Series Data

The wind energy industry is continuously improving their operational and maintenance practice for reducing the levelized costs of energy. Anticipating failures in wind turbines enables early warnings and timely intervention, so that the costly corrective maintenance can be prevented to the largest extent possible. It also avoids production loss owing to prolonged unavailability. One critical element allowing early warning is the ability to accumulate small-magnitude symptoms resulting from the gradual degradation of wind turbine systems. Inspired by the cumulative sum control chart method, this study reports the development of a wind turbine failure detection method with such early warning capability. Specifically, the following key questions are addressed: what fault signals to accumulate, how long to accumulate, what offset to use, and how to set the alarm-triggering control limit. We apply the proposed approach to 2 years’ worth of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data recorded from five wind turbines. We focus our analysis on gearbox failure detection, in which the proposed approach demonstrates its ability to anticipate failure events with a good lead time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗