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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Unpacking the Disconnect Between Wholesale and Retail Electric Rates [PowerPoint]

The 2017 DOE Staff Report to the Secretary on Electricity Markets and Reliability noted a disconnect between falling wholesale electricity prices and flat or rising retail investor-owned utility (IOU) electricity prices between 2008 and 2016. This analysis sought to assess recent trends in utility costs, retail sales, and/or retail rates vis-à-vis wholesale market prices in order to help explain this disconnect. Using FERC Form 1 and ICE Power Indices data, Berkeley Lab researchers developed key annual metrics between 2007 and 2016 at a regional level for five of the seven NERC regions: Midwest Reliability Organization (MRO), Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC), SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC), and Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). The analyses of these metrics enabled Berkeley Lab researchers to arrive at the following conclusions: Retail and wholesale rates were increasingly disconnected across all included NERC regions; Reductions in wholesale electricity market prices happened concurrently with reductions in IOU fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, but sizable regional differences in the degree of FPP cost reductions existed; Reductions in IOU FPP costs were offset in part by increases in non-fuel operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, but modest regional differences in the degree of these cost impacts existed; Reductions in IOU FPP costs were also offset in part by increases in capital expenditures, but regional differences in the magnitude and type of investments existed; and, Reductions in retail sales tended to mitigate the effect on retail rates from reductions in total utility costs, but regional differences existed that were sometimes counterintuitive and suggest the value in a more detailed analysis of utility costs vis-à-vis general rate case filings and decisions to better understand retail rate changes over time.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

GridCoPilot for Thermal Events: An LLM-Based Platform for Power Grid Reliability Analysis

Large Language Models show promise for translating natural language into database queries, but deploying such systems in safety-critical domains requires high reliability. We present an application of GridCoPilot to thermal event analysis (heatwaves and coldwaves) that affect power grid reliability. Our approach uses a LangChain SQL Agent to translate natural language queries into auditable SQL statements, with deterministic visualization routines that parse the structured query results. We introduce structural framing as a design principle, we integrate a NERC-region-level event library with county-level meteorology and decompose the combined data into three relational tables (event metadata, county-level event details, and a county-to-NERC subregion mapping), using prompt-guided joins to direct the model toward correct multi-table queries. For two core analytical patterns (identifying worst events by region and by region-year), the system achieved 100% SQL accuracy across all 16 NERC subregions and both event types (64 queries total). These results validate the approach for target use cases, though performance on diverse natural language formulations requires further investigation. We discuss design trade-offs, failure modes including JSON output truncation, and pathways for extending this approach to other hazard domains.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Regional analysis of aluminum and steel flows into the American automotive industry

Aluminum and steel represent the two most dominant metals in light duty vehicles, yet the flows of these materials into the American automotive industry have not been well characterized. This study proposes and implements a method for analyzing the flow of these metals into the automotive industry. We create a framework for performing regionally linked, sector specific material flow analyses and use this framework to trace flows of aluminum and steel entering the American automotive industry, focusing on flows downstream from raw material production. We show that automotive aluminum sheet and extrusions are sourced primarily from the NPCC (23%), SERC (20%), MRO (18%), and RFC (13%) NERC regions and a spatially unresolved Local region within the U.S. and Canada (18%). We determine that primary aluminum is largely from Canada (70%), nearly all from Quebec (69%). Further upstream, alumina and bauxite originate mostly from Brazil, Australia, and Jamaica. We also show that finished automotive steel is sourced primarily from the RFC (63%) and SERC (20%) regions. The crude steel supply similarly originates mainly from the RFC (69%) and SERC (7%) regions. Upstream raw materials including coke, coking coal, iron ore, lime, and steel scrap are primarily sourced from the U.S. with only direct reduced iron and pig iron used in electric arc furnace steel production coming mostly from outside the U.S. The framework developed here allows for increased spatial resolution of material flows, which can be used to develop more specific life cycle impact factors for life cycle assessments.

aluminum↗

Energy Assets Transformation Web Mapping Application

This submission contains the link and geospatial materials used in the Energy Assets Transformation Web Mapping Application. The zip file contains 19 geospatial layers in a file geodatabase called EAT.gdb to be grouped in the following categories. 1. Industrial Assets: Coal Generation Units Retirements 2012-2040 (EIA); Examples of Repurposing Projects (32 projects in total); Abandoned Coal Mines (CORD, SkyTruth); Abandoned or Orphaned Wells (for ten states only). 2. Energy Transition Communities: 48C (e) Tax Credits - Designated Energy Communities (IRA); Index of Deep Disadvantage; Local Energy Action Program (LEAP); EJ Index for Proximity to Hazardous Waste (EPA). 3. Regional Landscape: State-Level Funding Programs (relevant to repurposing projects, for 2022 and 2023 only); Coal Flows from Mine to Plant 2021 (EIA), Variable Renewable Energy Shares (Wind and Solar, 2021, EIA). 4. Supporting Infrastructure: Railroads (HIFLD), Electric Power Transmission Lines (HIFLD), Major Highways (NHPN, DOT), Major Ports (National Atlas of the U.S.); Independent System Operators (HIFLD), NERC Regions and Subregions (HIFLD).

abandoned coal mines↗

Cradle-to-Gate Life Cycle Analysis Baseline for United States Coal Mining and Delivery

The goal of this study is to highlight the environmental impacts from upstream coal production to its delivery at a power plant. This study is meant to characterize different coal basins, coal types, and mine types used to produce electric power in the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions in the United States using a functional unit of 1 kg of coal. The boundary of this study includes underground or surface extraction, water use at the mine, ventilation, coal handling, coal cleaning, mine tailing disposal, and transportation via conveyer belt, truck, ocean vessel, barge, and train. See the following URLs for accompanying documents: NETL Coal Baseline Model - Transportation Inventories: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=27ea1ba4-6ea9-4ee5-8b32-d7fce7f4e1e0. NETL Coal Baseline Model - Basin Inventories: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=0f290eed-5e4b-4b5f-bec0-36b0ea89c6e5. NETL Coal Baseline Model - Excel file: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=0dc18730-4214-4878-8a0f-d1941c45123c. NETL Coal Baseline Model - Open LCA model: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=0c0dde04-0d3c-4c7f-bd33-2745e061b8e0.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Climate Influences on Capacity Expansion Planning with Application to the Western U.S

Electric power system planners utilize a variety of planning tools to inform decisions concerning generation and transmission additions to the electric grid, the need for operational changes, and to evaluate potential stressors on the system. Numerous factors contribute to the planning process including projected fuel and technology costs, policy and load profiles. There is also a growing recognition of the interdependency of the electric grid with other natural and engineered systems. Here we explore how future climate change and hydropower operability might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning and operations. To do so we assemble a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated. Together, these climate factors spatially constrain a capacity expansion model that projects generation and transmission additions to the grid. The projected new capacity-builds are then evaluated on their operations, reliability, and cost under average and extreme climate conditions using production cost modeling. This coupled framework is demonstrated on the electric grid in the Western U.S., supporting capacity expansion planning by WECC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regional entity responsible for reliability assurance of the Western Interconnection. This region was selected in part because the West is unique in that it has high potential for renewable penetrations and is experiencing large retirements/displacements of baseload resources, primarily coal, leading to possible operational challenges in terms of changing resource mix and the need for resource flexibility. Toward this challenge, planning scenarios encompass a range of alternative energy, climate and drought futures. In this context we explore answers to two strategic questions: 1) How does changing climate influence electricity expansion planning (generation and transmission) and future operations, including type and capacity of new builds, system reliability, cost and environmental impacts? 2) How does the representation of hydropower in the modeling framework influence the evaluation of bulk power system operations? Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on recommendations concerning the capacity, type and location of new generation and transmission additions, with up to 17 GW additional capacity needed by 2038 to meet peak loads (~6.6% increase over capacity-builds based on historical climate). The extent of additional infrastructure needs is strongly influenced by future water availability for hydropower and the potential deployment of demand response technologies. Systems designed for future climate conditions were found to maintain high system reliability under a range of electricity and water availability scenarios (including significant drought), with minimal system curtailments. Additional capacity needs due to higher load tend to increase cumulative 20-year investment and operating costs by $\$$5-$\$$17 billion and generation costs increase by 9 to 19%. Finally, changing the representation of hydropower flexibility has a relatively small influence on capacity expansion in the Western Interconnection through 2038, but hydropower flexibility impacts generation costs to a similar extent as climate.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Impact of Transport Electrification Demand and Charging Schedules on Electricity Markets and Nuclear Generators

As the U.S. pursues deep decarbonization targets, electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to become a major driver of demand growth and a major determinant of daily demand patterns. This study analyzes a possible future ERCOT-like electricity grid, and examines the impact of different types of EV charging schedules on grid and market outcomes. This analysis demonstrates the significant impact of EV charging patterns on capacity expansion simulations. Even without EVs, the overall daily demand profile in a market can have significant impacts on prices and grid stability in that system, especially if non-dispatchable renewable generators (e.g. wind and solar) make up a significant fraction of the generation mix. EV demand will not necessarily follow this preexisting demand profile, so its daily trends may significantly change what generation portfolio would optimally serve the system. Furthermore, the effects of EV demand can alter the profitability of different types of units, by altering the frequency of market events like extreme-demand hours or zero-price hours. These effects are explored in this study. The EV demand levels were derived from MARKAL simulations of the West-South-Central North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region for the year 2050, using a carbon tax of $100/ton. The baseline MARKAL simulation forecasted that 23% of the region’s annual electricity demand in 2050 would be attributable to EVs, and broke out demand projections for EV and non-EV end-use in that year. To model lower EV penetration into the system, an additional case was explored which assumed that EVs only achieved 75% of the demand level projected by MARKAL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Input data to electricity_entity_boundaries workflow

The EIA 861 electricity entity information dataset which acts as the input data to the electricity_entity_boundaries workflow (https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/electricity_entity_boundaries).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Grid Ready, Flexible Large Power Transformer

GE Research and its partner Prolec GE have proposed a novel and breakthrough concept to improve the flexibility and interchangeability of large power transformers (LPTs). LPTs refer in this report to transformers with a power rating equal or greater than 100 MVA. The concept consists of a 3-phase autotransformer bank having one specified high voltage side (HV) voltage and three configurable low voltage side (LV) voltage taps. Moreover, the leakage impedance is adjustable offline using taps which allows to accommodate short-circuit requirements for a wide range of LPTs applications. The research performed aimed to develop and validate a cost-effective design of a flexible LPT and to demonstrate its competitiveness with the LPT fleet currently in operation in the U.S. The concept is intended for the long-term replacement of existing LPTs. In this project, the U.S based population of LPTs was analyzed to determine their commonality in power, voltage classes, and impedance range. Up to 9,700 units, currently deployed in the NERC’s Eastern and Western interconnection regions, were evaluated. This analysis yielded the specifications of two flexible LPTs to be designed to demonstrate the manufacturability and competitiveness of the concept: a 345 kV, 230 MVA and a 230 kV, 100 MVA LPTs. The two LPTs are both configurable to 161 kV, 138 kV, and 115 kV on the LV side and allow leakage impedance variation between 4% and 14%. The design output showed that the flexible LPT is manufacturable and competitive with conventional LPT. The proposed design has a power efficiency of 99.5% and a total active part weight increase ranging only between 15% and 28% relative to conventional LPTs it can be substituted with. Indeed, for the flexible LPT, the higher the LV side voltage is, the higher is its power rating. Hence, flexible LPTs are more competitive when compared with the largest conventional LPT they can replace. Power systems analyses were carried out to evaluate the performance of the flexible LPT when replacing an existing conventional LPT. These analyses showed that short-circuit and inrush currents will remain respectively within 15% and 9.4% of their original levels suggesting that no substations equipment is likely to be replaced due the installation of the flexible LPT. In addition, the analyses showed that the transient overvoltage anticipated at the impedance configuration switch will be manageable and will not pose any particular risk during lightning or switching events. This research proved that the deployment of flexible LPTs in the U.S power grid can greatly improve the grid reliability and its resiliency especially in the event of the loss of multiple LPTs. Moreover, the concept can significantly help reduce LPTs’ spare inventory by providing a high spare coverage level. The performed analysis showed that the designed 345 kV flexible LPT can serve as a spare for up to 34 units currently in operation in the U.S while the designed 230 kV flexible LPT can replace up to 101 units. Flexible LPTs offer new opportunities to U.S utilities to improve interchangeability of LPTs in the transmission system and to better strategize the upcoming renewal of about 70% of the population of LPTs anticipated to retire within the next two decades.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

What Technical Choices Matter to Characterize Heat Wave and Cold Snap Events in Support of Bulk Power Grid Reliability Studies?

Extreme weather events, such as Heat Waves (HW) and Cold Snaps (CS), pose significant risks to the power grid. The United States (U.S.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 896 mandates regional coordination standards that account for extreme thermal events. However, the lack of a universal definition for extreme thermal events may lead to inconsistent compliance efforts among neighboring entities, undermining the reliability of the transmission system. This study directly addresses this challenge by systematically evaluating how varying technical choices in defining HW and CS fundamentally impact the characterization and ranking of extreme events for power grid reliability studies. We used 12 event definitions and multiple temperature spatial aggregation approaches to construct historical (1980–2024) regional extreme thermal event libraries across North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) subregions in the conterminous U.S. We examined the sensitivity of event characteristics (e.g., duration, frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage) to different definitions. While some definitions produced similar libraries and top event rankings, definitions based on moving-window-averaged temperatures yielded markedly different characteristics. Spatial aggregation methods had minimal impact on heat wave or cold snap intensity, frequency and duration but significantly influenced spatial coverage. The top events identified across different aggregation methods were consistent, but their ranking order varied. These findings offer critical insights for characterizing and selecting extreme thermal events and for supporting local and cross-regional coordination as required by reliability standards.

Wan, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗

The impact of planning reserve margins in long-term planning models of the electricity sector

The planning reserve margin is the predominant metric used in long-term planning models to ensure the resource adequacy of projected power systems. Considerable work has been done to estimate the contribution of variable renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, to the planning reserve margin, but little work has been done to assess what planning reserve margin should be used in planning models. Typically, U.S.-based models use the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)-recommended reserve margin levels. However, historical reserve margins have often exceeded the NERC-recommended levels, suggesting that the use of NERC-recommended levels in planning models may negatively bias projected future capacity investments relative to real-world trends. Using the Regional Energy Deployment System capacity expansion model, we show that setting the planning reserve margin to observed levels in lieu of the NERC-recommended levels leads to substantial differences in near-term capacity additions. Scenarios using alternative specifications for the reserve margin resulted in increased national solar builds of 20-100 GW. Given that the magnitude on results from altering the reserve margin level is similar to or greater than many policies frequently analyzed with planning models, careful consideration of the reserve margin level is crucial for developing accurate power sector projections.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Load Composition Analysis in Support of the NERC Load Modeling Task Force. 2019-2020 Field Test of the Composite Load Model

In 2015, NERC’s reliability standards were revised to require the use of dynamic load models in transmission planning studies. To comply with the standards, planners must use load models that explicitly represent the dynamic behavior of the different constituents of load at each load bus within their transmission planning models. The most important of these constituents are motor-driven and power electronics-based loads. Collectively, these representations are known as composite load models. In anticipation of the compliance date for the new standards, NERC’s Load Modeling Task Force (LMTF), in 2019, initiated a field test of composite load models involving the regional reliability planning entities. In support of the field test, DOE and BPA researchers developed region-specific composite load models that could be assigned to each non-industrial load bus in the planning models for each of the North American interconnections. Separate models were developed for each hour of a summer peak day, a winter peak day, and a spring light-load day. This report is the technical documentation for the load composition analysis that was conducted to develop these non-industrial composite load models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-Performance Computing Based EMT Simulation: Power Grid with IBRs

Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation of power grids with high-fidelity models of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is time-consuming and difficult to scale. The necessity for high-fidelity models of IBRs that incorporate the dynamics of individual inverters within IBRs has been showcased in recent studies. These studies focused on events with partial power reduction in each IBR during a transmission line fault in the power grid. These types of events have been documented in multiple North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) reports in the past decade. It is imperative then to find solutions to speed-up EMT simulations and scale the size of the region with IBRs studied in EMT simulations. In this paper, a combination of numerical simulation algorithms with high-performance computing techniques are employed in discretization and linear solvers employed in the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform for power grid with IBRs. For ease of scalability, modular and object-oriented programming is used as these techniques are implemented. Additionally, automation software is developed to convert legacy software codes to the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform. Thereafter, this platform is evaluated on multi-core central processing units (CPUs). Finally, scale-up tests are performed to showcase the scalability that is possible.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000↗

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Knowledge Gaps, Planned Observations to Address Them, and Implications for Global Climate Change Modeling

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. As emphasized in the latest IPCC report, the global representation of these aerosol-cloud interaction processes in climate models is one of the largest uncertainty in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling, and describe planned field campaigns in the region. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the following four synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: 1) ORACLES (Observations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions), a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program, 2) CLARIFY-2016 (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing: Year 2016), a comprehensive observational and modeling programme funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and supported by the UK Met Office. 3) LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds), a funded deployment of the DOE (Department of Energy) ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) to Ascension Island, nominally for April 1 2016 - March 31 2017, and 4) ONFIRE (Observations of Fire's Impact on the southeast Atlantic Region), a proposed deployment of the NCAR C-130 aircraft to Sao Tome Island in 2017.

Aerosol-cloud↗

Historical Comparison of Capacity Build Decisions from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model

The Regional Energy Deploy System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model is frequently used to project the evolution of the U.S. power sector under a wide range of conditions. However, the model's capacity expansion decisions have never been evaluated against historical capacity expansion decisions. In this work, we perform a model validation exercise, comparing capacity expansion decision from ReEDS for 2010-2016 against the actual buildout of the electricity sector. We find that with three key adjustments ReEDS is able to reproduce national level results with reasonably high accuracy. Those three adjustments are to use historical average planning reserve margins instead of the NERC-recommended reserve margin levels, using actual financing costs rather than long-term average financing costs, and disallowing the lowest-cost hydropower upgrades, geothermal sites, and compress-air energy storage sites. We also compare the ReEDS results at a state-level and find that state-level results can be better represented by including a penalty for transferring power between regions. The improved results with that penalty indicate that the ReEDS transmission representation is likely not sufficiently stringent, and should be improved. Overall these results show that with the improvements described above, ReEDS can effectively reproduce historical capacity additions, which increases our confidence in using the model in making forward-looking projections.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Sparse Linear Solvers for Large-scale Electromagnetic Transient Simulations

Linear solvers form the basis for electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations. There is a need to speed up EMT simulations as larger regions are analyzed using EMT simulations. For the same, the performance of linear solvers plays an important role. Exploiting the sparsity of the matrices generated in EMT simulations could assist with speed-up. Scalability is also crucial as power grids expand, demanding solutions capable of accommodating the increasing system size. Recent studies from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) increasingly emphasize that EMT simulation models of the power grid will grow larger with the inclusion of power electronics components. Parallelisms in sparsity patterns exploit modern central processing units (CPUs), multi-core CPUs, and graphics processing units (GPUs) architectures in sparse solver designs. Therefore, this paper explores publicly available existing linear solvers and investigates their efficiency in large-scale power grid simulations. A large-scale power grid is developed by increasing the size of the IEEE 39 bus test system to up to 39000 bus systems.

Hsu, Kuan-Chieh↗

Assessing the Ability of Instantaneous Aircraft and Sonde Measurements to Characterize Climatological Means and Long-Term Trends in Tropospheric Composition

Over four decades of measurements exist that sample the 3-D composition of reactive trace gases in the troposphere from approximately weekly ozone sondes, instrumentation on civil aircraft, and individual comprehensive aircraft field campaigns. An obstacle to using these data to evaluate coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs)the models used to project future changes in atmospheric composition and climateis that exact space-time matching between model fields and observations cannot be done, as CCMs generate their own meteorology. Evaluation typically involves averaging over large spatiotemporal regions, which may not reflect a true average due to limited or biased sampling. This averaging approach generally loses information regarding specific processes. Here we aim to identify where discrete sampling may be indicative of long-term mean conditions, using the GEOS-Chem global chemical-transport model (CTM) driven by the MERRA reanalysis to reflect historical meteorology from 2003 to 2012 at 2o by 2.5o resolution. The model has been sampled at the time and location of every ozone sonde profile available from the Would Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC), along the flight tracks of the IAGOSMOZAICCARABIC civil aircraft campaigns, as well as those from over 20 individual field campaigns performed by NASA, NOAA, DOE, NSF, NERC (UK), and DLR (Germany) during the simulation period. Focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen species, we assess where aggregates of the in situ data are representative of the decadal mean vertical, spatial and temporal distributions that would be appropriate for evaluating CCMs. Next, we identically sample a series of parallel sensitivity simulations in which individual emission sources (e.g., lightning, biogenic VOCs, wildfires, US anthropogenic) have been removed one by one, to assess where and when the aggregated observations may offer constraints on these processes within CCMs. Lastly, we show results of an additional 31-year simulation from 1980-2010 of GEOS-Chem driven by the MACCity emissions inventory and MERRA reanalysis at 4o by 5o. We sample the model at every WOUDC sonde and flight track from MOZAIC and NASA field campaigns to evaluate which aggregate observations are statistically reflective of long-term trends over the period.

Atmospheric composition↗