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Enabling NLDAS-2 Anomaly Analysis Using Giovanni

A newly implemented feature in Giovanni (GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Interface) allows users to explore and visualize anomaly data from the NLDAS-2 Primary Forcing and Noah model data sets. For a given measurement and location, an anomaly describes how conditions for a particular time period compare to normal conditions, based on long-term averages. Analyzing anomalies is important for monitoring droughts, determining weather trends, and studying land surface processes relevant for meteorology, hydrology, and climate. Using Giovanni to analyze anomalies for NLDAS-2 data allows for these studies to be efficiently conducted for the central North American region. Phase 2 of NLDAS (NLDAS-2) currently runs at an 1/8th degree resolution, in near-real time, with data sets extending back to January 1979. NLDAS-2 provides data for soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and other hydrology measurements. Hourly, monthly, and 30-year (1980-2009) monthly climatology data are available for several land surface models and forcing data sets. The Giovanni anomaly tool calculates monthly anomalies, for a given user-defined variable, as the difference between the NLDAS-2 monthly climatology data and the monthly data. The resulting anomaly describes how a chosen month compares to the 30-year monthly average. The presentation will demonstrate the capabilities and usefulness of Giovanni's anomaly tool, detail the recently added NLDAS-2 variables for which anomalies are available, and show how users can access the data.

drough

Hydrology Research with the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Datasets at the NASA GES DISC Using Giovanni

The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is a collaboration project between NASA/GSFC, NOAA, Princeton Univ., and the Univ. of Washington. NLDAS has created a surface meteorology dataset using the best-available observations and reanalyses the backbone of this dataset is a gridded precipitation analysis from rain gauges. This dataset is used to drive four separate land-surface models (LSMs) to produce datasets of soil moisture, snow, runoff, and surface fluxes. NLDAS datasets are available hourly and extend from Jan 1979 to near real-time with a typical 4-day lag. The datasets are available at 1/8th-degree over CONUS and portions of Canada and Mexico from 25-53 North. The datasets have been extensively evaluated against observations, and are also used as part of a drought monitor. NLDAS datasets are available from the NASA GES DISC and can be accessed via ftp, GDS, Mirador, and Giovanni. GES DISC news articles were published showing figures from the heat wave of 2011, Hurricane Irene, Tropical Storm Lee, and the low-snow winter of 2011-2012. For this presentation, Giovanni-generated figures using NLDAS data from the derecho across the U.S. Midwest and Mid-Atlantic will be presented. Also, similar figures will be presented from the landfall of Hurricane Isaac and the before-and-after drought conditions of the path of the tropical moisture into the central states of the U.S. Updates on future products and datasets from the NLDAS project will also be introduced.

Mocko, David M.

Drought Monitoring for 3 North American Case Studies Based on the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)

Both NLDAS Phase 1 (1996-2007) and Phase 2 (1979-present) datasets have been evaluated against in situ observational datasets, and NLDAS forcings and outputs are used by a wide variety of users. Drought indices and drought monitoring from NLDAS were recently examined by Mo et al. (2010) and Sheffield et al. (2010). In this poster, we will present results analyzing NLDAS Phase 2 forcings and outputs for 3 North American Case studies being analyzed as part of the NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force: (1) Western US drought (1998- 2004); (2) plains/southeast US drought (2006-2007); and (3) Current Texas-Mexico drought (2011-). We will examine percentiles of soil moisture consistent with the NLDAS drought monitor.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

North American Land Data Assimilation (NLDAS) Data and Services at NASA GES DISC

The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas) integrates a large quantity of observation-based and model reanalysis data to drive offline (not coupled to the atmosphere) land surface models (LSMs) to produce fields of soil moisture, snow, and surface fluxes. The NLDAS-2 data sets currently archived at, and distributed by, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC, https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov) have been updated to NLDAS Version 2.0 (NLDAS-2.0). This presentation provides an overview of the updated NLDAS-2.0 data at NASA GES DISC and discusses the methods for the public to access the data as well as the data services available.

Ashley Heath

Basin-Scale Assessment of the Land Surface Energy Budget in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Operational and Research NLDAS-2 Systems

This paper compares the annual and monthly components of the simulated energy budget from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) with reference products over the domains of the 12 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the continental United States (CONUS). The simulations are calculated from both operational and research versions of NLDAS-2. The reference radiation components are obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Surface Radiation Budget product. The reference sensible and latent heat fluxes are obtained from a multitree ensemble method applied to gridded FLUXNET data from the Max Planck Institute, Germany. As these references are obtained from different data sources, they cannot fully close the energy budget, although the range of closure error is less than 15%formean annual results. The analysis here demonstrates the usefulness of basin-scale surface energy budget analysis for evaluating model skill and deficiencies. The operational (i.e., Noah, Mosaic, and VIC) and research (i.e., Noah-I and VIC4.0.5) NLDAS-2 land surface models exhibit similarities and differences in depicting basin-averaged energy components. For example, the energy components of the five models have similar seasonal cycles, but with different magnitudes. Generally, Noah and VIC overestimate (underestimate) sensible (latent) heat flux over several RFCs of the eastern CONUS. In contrast, Mosaic underestimates (overestimates) sensible (latent) heat flux over almost all 12 RFCs. The research Noah-I and VIC4.0.5 versions show moderate-to-large improvements (basin and model dependent) relative to their operational versions, which indicates likely pathways for future improvements in the operational NLDAS-2 system.

Energy

Analysis of Water and Energy Budgets and Trends Using the NLDAS Monthly Data Sets

The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is a collaborative project between NASA GSFC, NOAA, Princeton University, and the University of Washington. NLDAS has created surface meteorological forcing data sets using the best-available observations and reanalyses. The forcing data sets are used to drive four separate land-surface models (LSMs), Mosaic, Noah, VIC, and SAC, to produce data sets of soil moisture, snow, runoff, and surface fluxes. NLDAS hourly data, accessible from the NASA GES DISC Hydrology Data Holdings Portal, http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/hydrology/data-holdings, are widely used by various user communities in modeling, research, and applications, such as drought and flood monitoring, watershed and water quality management, and case studies of extreme events. More information is available at http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/. To further facilitate analysis of water and energy budgets and trends, NLDAS monthly data sets have been recently released by NASA GES DISC.

Vollmer, Bruce E.

Basin-Scale Assessment of the Land Surface Water Budget in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Operational and Research NLDAS-2 Systems

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the components of the land surface water budget in the four land surface models (Noah, SAC-Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model, (VIC) Variable Infiltration Capacity Model, and Mosaic) applied in the newly implemented National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational and research versions of the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2). This work focuses on monthly and annual components of the water budget over 12 National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Monthly gridded FLUX Network (FLUXNET) evapotranspiration (ET) from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) of Germany, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) total runoff (Q), changes in total water storage (dS/dt, derived as a residual by utilizing MPI ET and USGS Q in the water balance equation), and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observed total water storage anomaly (TWSA) and change (TWSC) are used as reference data sets. Compared to these ET and Q benchmarks, Mosaic and SAC (Noah and VIC) in the operational NLDAS-2 overestimate (underestimate) mean annual reference ET and underestimate (overestimate) mean annual reference Q. The multimodel ensemble mean (MME) is closer to the mean annual reference ET and Q. An anomaly correlation (AC) analysis shows good AC values for simulated monthly mean Q and dS/dt but significantly smaller AC values for simulated ET. Upgraded versions of the models utilized in the research side of NLDAS-2 yield largely improved performance in the simulation of these mean annual and monthly water component diagnostics. These results demonstrate that the three intertwined efforts of improving (1) the scientific understanding of parameterization of land surface processes, (2) the spatial and temporal extent of systematic validation of land surface processes, and (3) the engineering-oriented aspects such as parameter calibration and optimization are key to substantially improving product quality in various land data assimilation systems.

NLDAS-2

NLDAS Views of North American 2011 Extreme Events

2011 was marked as one of the most extreme years in recent history. Over the course of the year, weather-related extreme events, such as floods, heat waves, blizzards, tornadoes, and wildfires, caused tremendous loss of human life and property. The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/) data set, with high spatial and temporal resolutions (0.125? x 0.125?, hourly) and various water- and energy-related variables, is an excellent data source for case studies of extreme events. This presentation illustrates some extreme events from 2011 in North America, including the Groundhog Day Blizzard, the July heat wave, Hurricane Irene, and Tropical Storm Lee, all utilizing NLDAS Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) data.

Rui, Hualan

NLDAS Views of North American 2011 Extreme Events

2011 was marked as one of the most extreme years in recent history. Over the course of the year, weather-related extreme events, such as floods, heat waves, blizzards, tornadoes, and wildfires, caused tremendous loss of human life and property. The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http:ldas.gsfc.nasa.govnldas) data set, with high spatial and temporal resolutions (0.125 x 0.125, hourly) and various water- and energy-related variables, is an excellent data source for case studies of extreme events. This presentation illustrates some extreme events from 2011 in North America, including the Groundhog Day Blizzard, the July heat wave, Hurricane Irene, and Tropical Storm Lee, all utilizing NLDAS Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) data.

hydrology

Land Data Assimilation of Satellite-Based Soil Moisture Products Using the Land Information System Over the NLDAS Domain

This presentation will include results from data assimilation simulations using the NASA-developed Land Information System (LIS). Using the ensemble Kalman filter in LIS, two satellite-based soil moisture products from the AMSR-E instrument were assimilated, one a NASA-based product and the other from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM). The domain and land-surface forcing data from these simulations were from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase-2, over the period 2002-2008. The Noah land-surface model, version 3.2, was used during the simulations. Changes to estimates of land surface states, such as soil moisture, as well as changes to simulated runoff/streamflow will be presented. Comparisons over the NLDAS domain will also be made to two global reference evapotranspiration (ET) products, one an interpolated product based on FLUXNET tower data and the other a satellite- based algorithm from the MODIS instrument. Results of an improvement metric show that assimilating the LPRM product improved simulated ET estimates while the NASA-based soil moisture product did not.

Mocko, David M.

New and Improved GLDAS and NLDAS Data Sets and Data Services at HDISC/NASA

Terrestrial hydrological variables are important in global hydrology, climate, and carbon cycle studies. Generating global fields of these variables, however, is still a challenge. The goal of a land data assimilation system (LDAS)is to ingest satellite-and ground-based observational data products, using advanced land surface modeling and data assimilation techniques, in order to generate optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes data and, thereby, facilitate hydrology and climate modeling, research, and forecast.

Rui, Hualan

Dynamics and Variability of the Spring Dry Season in the United States Southwest as Observed in AmeriFlux and NLDAS-2 Data

The spring dry season occurring in an arid region of the Southwest United States, which receives both winter storm track and summer monsoon precipitation, is investigated. Bimodal precipitation and vegetation growth provide an opportunity to assess multiple climate mechanisms and their impact on hydroclimate and ecosystems.We detect multiple shifts from wet to drier conditions in the observational record and land surface model output. Focusing on the recent dry period, a shift in the late 1990s resulted in earlier and greater spring soil moisture draw down, and later and reduced spring vegetation green-up, compared to a prior wet period (1979 - 1997). A simple soil moisture balance model shows this shift is driven by changes in winter precipitation.The recent post-1999 dry period, as well as an earlier one from 1948 - 1966, are both related to the cool tropics phase of Pacific decadal variability which influences winter precipitation. In agreement with other studies for the Southwest United States, we find the recent drought cannot be explained in terms of precipitation alone, but also is due to the rising influence of temperature, thus highlighting the sensitivity of this region to warming temperatures. Future changes in the spring dry season will therefore be affected by how tropical decadal variability evolves, and also by emerging trends due to human-driven warming.

Pascolini-Campbell, Madeleine

Assessing the Hydrologic Performance of the EPA's Nonpoint Source Water Quality Assessment Decision Support Tool Using North American Land Data Assimilation System (Products)

The accuracy of streamflow predictions in the EPA's BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources) decision support tool is affected by the sparse meteorological data contained in BASINS. The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data with high spatial and temporal resolutions provide an alternative to the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)'s station data. This study assessed the improvement of streamflow prediction of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model contained within BASINS using the NLDAS 118 degree hourly precipitation and evapotranspiration estimates in seven watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay region. Our results demonstrated consistent improvements of daily streamflow predictions in five of the seven watersheds when NLDAS precipitation and evapotranspiration data was incorporated into BASINS. The improvement of using the NLDAS data is significant when watershed's meteorological station is either far away or not in a similar climatic region. When the station is nearby, using the NLDAS data produces similar results. The correlation coefficients of the analyses using the NLDAS data were greater than 0.8, the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) model fit efficiency greater than 0.6, and the error in the water balance was less than 5%. Our analyses also showed that the streamflow improvements were mainly contributed by the NLDAS's precipitation data and that the improvement from using NLDAS's evapotranspiration data was not significant; partially due to the constraints of current BASINS-HSPF settings. However, NLDAS's evapotranspiration data did improve the baseflow prediction. This study demonstrates the NLDAS data has the potential to improve stream flow predictions, thus aid the water quality assessment in the EPA nonpoint water quality assessment decision tool.

Lee, S.

Validation of Remotely Sensed and Modeled Soil Moisture at Forested and Unforested Sites

Soil moisture is an important driver for forest ecosystems, influencing fire occurrence and extent, insect and pathogen impacts, and tree growth, which creates a need for regular, globally extensive soil moisture information that only satellite-based sensors or models can achieve. However, the reliability of soil moisture measurements in forests is not well understood due to a lack of suitable validation sites (especially relative to unforested ecosystems) and interference caused by high vegetation water content on remotely sensed measurements; although recent studies have started to address this gap [1], [2], [3], [4]. Here we validate the performance of multiyear remotely sensed (SMAP/Sentinel), remotely sensed data assimilation modelled (SMAP-L4), and modelled (NLDAS) surface and root zone (0-1 m) soil moisture datasets with data from in-situ sensors at 39 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites throughout the contiguous US. Due to differences in spatial resolution, NEON soil moisture (~0.2 km measurement zone) correlations were expected to be stronger with the SMAP/Sentinel product (3 km resolution) than with coarser resolution SMAP-L4 (9 km resolution) or NLDAS products (13 km resolution). However, given the sensitivity of satellite measurements to vegetation water content we expected a deterioration in the correlations based on remotely sensed measurements (SMAP/Sentinel and SMAP-L4) as aboveground biomass increased, whereas the model-based data (NLDAS) was expected to be largely insensitive to vegetation type. We recognize that the SMAP/Sentinel product was developed for unforested regions, therefore our application is outside its primary use case. Soil moisture is measured at up to 8 depths in five soil plots spaced up to 40 m apart at each NEON terrestrial site. Correlation parameters were calculated for the three remotely sensed and modelled data products relative to in-situ measurement following Entekhabi et al. [5]. The datasets comprised 94 (SMAP-L4), 28 (SMAP/Sentinel), and 106 (NLDAS) sites-years for surface soils and 13 (SMAP-L4) and 14 (NLDAS) site-years for the root zone. At unforested sites, the performance of the three remotely sensed and modelled data products was similar for surface soils (Table 1). For example, unbiased RMSD (ubRMSD), which SMAP uses as its primary performance metric [6], ranged from 0.05 to 0.06 m3 m-3 (Table 1), indicating the ability of all three products to track changes in soil moisture over time. The performance of the three products deteriorated at forested sites, however, while the difference in performance was modest for SMAP-L4 and NLDAS, the deterioration in SMAP/Sentinel performance was substantial. For instance, SMAP/Sentinel ubRMSD increased from 0.06 to 0.11 m3 m-3 and absolute mean difference (Abs MD; which includes measurement bias and spatial representativeness errors) increased from 0.06 to 0.16 m3 m-3, indicating both a reduction in ability to track temporal changes and absolute amounts of soil moisture in forest ecosystems. SMAP-L4 and NLDAS had lower unbiased RMSD for root zone (0-1 m) than surface soils at both forested and unforested sites (Tables 1 and 2; SMAP/Sentinel does not produce a root zone measurement). However, in most cases the correlation coefficient (r) was lower for the root zone than surface soils, suggesting the lower unbiased RMSD may be attributed to greater temporal stability of soil moisture in the root zone rather than improved data product performance. Mean difference and absolute mean difference, which encompass measurement bias and spatial representativeness errors, were greater for root zone than surface soils at unforested sites for both data products, but the opposite was generally true at forested sites. As with surface soils, there was relatively little change in the performance of SMAP-L4 and NLDAS between the unforested and forested sites. In summary, all three data products were able to adequately represent soil moisture at unforested sites, at least when aggregating across sites. However, while the performance of all three products deteriorated at forested sites, SMAP-L4 and NLDAS maintained sufficient performance to remain suitable for some use cases (ubRMSD <0.06 m3 m-3 and RMSD <0.13 m3 m-3). In contrast, the relatively poorer performance of the SMAP/Sentinel product at forested sites seems insufficient for most use cases (ubRMSD >0.1 m3 m-3 and RMSD >0.2 m3 m-3). We attribute the large reduction in the performance of the SMAP/Sentinel product in forests to its use of C-band wavelengths, which are particularly sensitive to vegetation interference, and apparently outweighed any gains provided by its higher spatial resolution. A combined SMAP/NISAR soil moisture product may provide improved performance relative to SMAP/Sentinel due to NISAR’s use of L-band wavelengths, which are less sensitive to vegetation (NISAR is scheduled for launch in early 2024).

Edward Ayres

Integrated GW Farm ABM

This Data Repository includes data used for the integrated groundwater- farm ABM model, raw model output from scenario ensemble, and processed outputs that isolate the groundwater storage depletion outcomes for the 35,000 farm cells. Model Inputs: Farm ABM Inputs: This folder contains the input data used by the integrated groundwater - farm ABM modelling script (Python file) used for the high performance computing (HPC) experiments. The sub-folder "data inputs" contains all of the farm attribute data, while the three files in the folder have the hydrogeological data lookup table (NLDAS Cost Curve Attributes.csv), a lookup table (Theis well function table.csv) for the groundwater cost curve function, and the farm indexes and corresponding NLDAS ids for all of the cells run in this experiment (nldas farms subset final.csv). NLDAS Cost curve hydrogeological data: Hydrogeological data aggregated to 1/8 degree resolution and aligned with the NLDAS grid. Parameters include: water depth below ground surface [meters], subsurface porosity [unitless], aquifer depth from ground surface to aquifer bottom [meters], annual average recharge (USGS: mm, Doll: meters), and three different hydraulic conductivity (K) values (meters/day). The three K values represent the mean value from Gleeson et al. (2018), one standard deviation above the mean from Gleeson et al. (2018), and the de Graaf et al. 2020 modifications to certain lithologies. Additional information about these datasets and their processing are documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). Output: Raw outputs: This folder contains a .zip file that has model outputs for the entire scenario ensemble. There is one csv for each farm id, using the format "farm farmid cases.csv". The relationship between the farm id and NLDAS id is defined by the "nldas farms subset final.csv" located in the Farm ABM Inputs folder. Each csv has 625 rows, corresponding to 625 combinations of different scenario parameter values. Each row (scenario) represents the outcome of a 100 year simulation. Columns define scenario settings and summary statistics for each scenario. The first four columns define the scenario settings: "hydro ratio," "econ ratio," "K scenario," and "gamma scenario." The hydro and econ ratios are values passed to the modeling script that influence multipliers for other model parameters, as documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). The gamma multiplier is a coefficient multiplier applied to the baseline gamma values (values below 1 represent lower unobserved costs compared to baseline, values above 1 represent higher costs). The K scenario names represent K values of: "low": 0.5 m/d, "int 1": 2.5 m/d, "int 2": 10 m/d, "high": 50 m/d, and "gleeson": mean Gleeson K value. "Perc vol depleted" is the fraction of groundwater depleted at the end of the 100 simulation. Processed Output: Derived depletion outcomes from raw outputs: All of the individual csv files from the Raw outputs were aggregated into a single file that has the scenario settings and fraction depletion "Perc vol depleted" for every farm cell, for every scenario. The other two files define relationships between the farm id, NLDAS id, and local and major aquifer units, used for aquifer-level depletion analysis.

Agent based modeling

Similarity Assessment of Land Surface Model Outputs in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/ upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.

land surface models

Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States

Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that flash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens flash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated flash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981–2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of flash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in flash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, flash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, flash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of flash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fidelity could aid in monitoring flash droughts and improve the prediction of flash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.

Drought