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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Modeling Global Indices for Estimating Non-Photosynthetic Vegetation Cover

Non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) includes plant litter, senesced leaves, and crop residues. NPV plays an essential role in terrestrial ecosystem processes, and is an important indicator of drought severity, ecosystem disturbance, agricultural resilience, and wildfire danger. Current moderate spatial resolution multispectral satellite systems (e.g., Landsat and Sentinel-2) have only a single band in the 2000–2500 nm shortwave infrared “SWIR2” range where non-pigment biochemical constituents of NPV, including cellulose and lignin, have important spectral absorption features. Thus, these current systems have suboptimal capabilities for characterizing NPV cover. This research used simulated spectral mixtures accounting for variability among NPV and soils to evaluate globally-appropriate hyperspectral and multispectral indices for estimation of fractional NPV cover. The Continuum Interpolated NPV Depth Index (CINDI), a weighted ratio index measuring lignocellulose absorption near 2100 nm, was found to produce the lowest error in estimating NPV cover. CINDI was less sensitive to variability in soil spectra and green vegetation cover than competing indices. While CINDI was sensitive to the relative water content of soil and NPV, this sensitivity allowed for correcting error in estimated NPV cover as water content increased. CINDI bands were less capable than Dual Absorption NPV Index (DANI) bands for maintaining continuity with the heritage Landsat SWIR2 band, but combining multiple CINDI bands demonstrated adequate continuity. Three SWIR2 bands with band centers at 2038, 2108, and 2211 nm can provide superior capabilities for future moderate resolution multispectral/superspectral systems targeting NPV monitoring, including the next generation Landsat mission (Landsat Next). These bands and the associated CINDI index provide potential for global NPV monitoring using a constellation of future superspectral sensors and imaging spectrometers, with applications including improving soil management, preventing land degradation, evaluating impacts of drought, mapping ecosystem disturbance, and assessing wildfire danger.

Index optimization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels at Nuclear Plants

A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of SWIR Crop Residue Bands for the Landsat Next Mission

This research reports the findings of a Landsat Next expert review panel that evaluated the use of narrow shortwave infrared (SWIR) reflectance bands to measure ligno-cellulose absorption features centered near 2100 and 2300 nm, with the objective of measuring and mapping non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), crop residue cover, and the adoption of conservation tillage practices within agricultural landscapes. Results could also apply to detection of NPV in pasture, grazing lands, and non-agricultural settings. Currently, there are no satellite data sources that provide narrowband or hyperspectral SWIR imagery at sufficient volume to map NPV at a regional scale. The Landsat Next mission, currently under design and expected to launch in the late 2020’s, provides the opportunity for achieving increased SWIR sampling and spectral resolution with the adoption of new sensor technology. This study employed hyperspectral data collected from 916 agricultural field locations with varying fractional NPV, fractional green vegetation, and surface moisture contents. These spectra were processed to generate narrow bands with centers at 2040, 2100, 2210, 2260, and 2230 nm, at various bandwidths, that were subsequently used to derive 13 NPV spectral indices from each spectrum. For crop residues with minimal green vegetation cover, two-band indices derived from 2210 and 2260 nm bands were top performers for measuring NPV (R^(2) = 0.81, RMSE = 0.13) using bandwidths of 30 to 50 nm, and the addition of a third band at 2100 nm increased resistance to atmospheric correction residuals and improved mission continuity with Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager Band 7. For prediction of NPV over a full range of green vegetation cover, the Cellulose Absorption Index, derived from 2040, 2100, and 2210 nm bands, was top performer (R^(2) = 0.77, RMSE = 0.17), but required a narrow (≤20 nm) bandwidth at 2040 nm to avoid interference from atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption. In comparison, broadband NPV indices utilizing Landsat 8 bands centered at 1610 and 2200 nm performed poorly in measuring fractional NPV (R^(2) = 0.44), with significantly increased interference from green vegetation

Wells Dean Hively↗
DOE OSTI2025

Net Present Value Optimization of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Plant with CO 2 Capture using a Water-Lean Solvent Considering Transient Electricity Price for Multiple Regions

Global CO 2 emissions are increasing at about a 1.5% rate per year. Fossil fuel-based plants are one of the main contributors to this rise. In the power generation industry, fossil fuel plants are dominant, and many plants are under development. In this study, a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant with postcombustion capture using a leading water-lean solvent is considered. For optimal design and operating schedule, large-scale dynamic optimization is undertaken for net present value (NPV) optimization. The first principle dynamic model of NGCC is developed, including a model of the highly efficient H-class gas turbines. For computational tractability of the dynamic optimization problem, a reduced-order model is developed by using the Hankel singular value decomposition. A waterlean solvent, N-(2-ethoxyethyl)-3-morpholinopropan-1-amine, is used for carbon capture. A model of the capture system is developed in Aspen Plus, which is used to develop a reduced-order model by using ALAMO, a machine learning software. In addition, a reduced model of the CO 2 compression system with a dehydration unit is also considered. The integrated system is used for NPV optimization by using the Python-based PYOMO platform. The PCC process is analyzed for three configurations-conventional packed bed, rotating packed bed (RPB), and a combination of RPB and direct contact cooler. The NPV optimization is performed for 14 regional markets by considering year-long clustered and continuous locational marginal price data with a 1 h interval. Optimization results show that the PCC can achieve 90% CO 2 capture with a positive NPV for six regions. Sensitivity studies conducted by using the PCC configurations indicate that the process is economically feasible for 9 regions out of 14 regional electricity markets with NPV values in the range of 33−540 $MM.

cabon capture↗
DOE OSTI2022

Economic analysis of CCUS: Accelerated development for CO 2 EOR and storage in residual oil zones under the context of 45Q tax credit

Residual oil zones (ROZ) undergoing CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO 2 -EOR) may benefit from specific strategies to maximize their value. We evaluated several strategies for producing from a Permian Basin, West Texas, USA field’s ROZ. This ROZ lies below the main pay zone (MPZ) of the field. Such brownfield ROZs occur in the Permian Basin and elsewhere. Since brownfield ROZs are hydraulically connected to the MPZs, development sequences and schemes influence oil production, CO 2 storage, and net present value (NPV). We conducted economic assessments of various CO 2 injection/production schemes in the stacked ROZ-MPZ reservoir based on flow simulations of a high-resolution geocellular model built from wireline logs and core data and calibrated through production history matching. Flow simulations of water alternating gas (WAG) injection, such as switching injection from the MPZ to the ROZ and commingled production, were studied. Simulation results showed that simultaneous CO 2 injection into the MPZ and ROZ lead to the largest oil production and, generally, the largest NPV. If instead, CO 2 was simultaneously injected into the MPZ and ROZ, then into the ROZ alone, this maximized CO 2 storage. CO 2 storage can be used as a tax credit under the Internal Revenue Code, Section 45Q. Storage performance depends on the development approach and WAG ratio. Developing the ROZ increased storage compared to only producing from the MPZ. The WAG ratio to maximize oil production did not always yield the largest NPV. These findings are potentially applied to other Brownfield ROZs, which are common below San Andres reservoirs in the Permian Basin and other basins. ROZ development can increase oilfields’ NPV and carbon storage potential. Our study can serve as an analog for similar reservoirs. Here this work provides valuable insights into the further optimization of brownfield ROZ development and information for operators to plan to develop stacked ROZ-MPZ reservoirs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Economic assessment of a multistage surface-heated vacuum membrane distillation process for the treatment of hypersaline produced water

Here, the treatment and disposal of hypersaline produced water remains a challenge, particularly for oil and gas producers in the Permian basin where production wells generate significant amounts of wastewater, and the traditional method of injecting wastewater into disposal wells is coming under increasing scrutiny. Here we investigate the viability of using solar energy to power a multi-stage, surface heated, vacuum membrane distillation (SHVMD) with energy recovery to treat hypersaline produced wastewater from Midland, Texas. Membrane distillation is a process that can desalinate waters with high total dissolved solids concentration, and when incorporated into a system with surface heating and energy recovery can achieve high water recovery rates. Model results show that a 6-stage SHVMD system with a 54.4 % water recovery rate and a gained output ratio (GOR) of 3.28 has the potential to be economically viable when used to treat hypersaline produced water in the Permian basin. Assuming energy costs of $\$0.03$/kWh thermal and $\$0.12$kWh electric , we estimate a project net present value (NPV) of $\$225,525$ and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 13.5 % when an air cooled condensor is used to cool the distillate and a NPV of $\$570,791$ and IRR of 24.52 % when a liquid coooling source is available.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solid-State Transformer and Hybrid Transformer With Integrated Energy Storage in Active Distribution Grids: Technical and Economic Comparison, Dispatch, and Control

Solid-state transformer (SST) and hybrid transformer (HT) are promising alternatives to the line-frequency transformer (LFT) in smart grids. The SST features medium-frequency isolation, full controllability for voltage regulation, reactive power compensation, and the capability of battery energy storage system (BESS) integration with multiport configuration. The HT has a partially-rated converter for fractional controllability and can integrate a small BESS. Fast grid-edge voltage fluctuations from increased solar photovoltaic (PV) and electric vehicle (EV) penetration are difficult to manage for mechanical load tap changers. Hence, along with the trend towards more BESS in the grid, the controllability and the storage integration capability of the SST and HT are of strong interest. However, a review of literature shows existing SST and HT research is mostly at converter level, while system-level assessments are scarce. Assessing technical and economic impacts is critical to understanding the benefits and role of the SST and HT to guide future research, which is presented for the first time in this article. Experimental results from medium-voltage (MV) SST and MV HT prototypes are shown to confirm equipment-level feasibility, where the voltage controllability waveforms of a MV HT prototype are reported for the first time. Comparative simulations are performed on a modified IEEE 34-bus system. Here, a grid-model-less decentralized grid-edge voltage control method and a day-ahead BESS dispatch method are proposed for the SST and HT. The simulations show that the SST and HT with integrated storage can host more PV, achieve peak shaving, mitigate voltage fluctuation and reverse power flow, and support energy arbitrage for operational cost reduction, as compared to the LFT. Moreover, comprehensive analyses of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) are performed under different installed PV capacities, HT’s partial converter ratings, and BESS capacities. Sensitivities to future cost reductions of the PV and BESS are studied. Although the NPV and IRR are currently negative, 60% capital cost reduction or 150% revenue increase will make the SST and HT economically viable in the use case studied.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cost-Benefit Analysis For Indonesia Building Sector: Whole-Building Cooling Solutions

The Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia (GoI) includes technical assistance and investment mobilization facilitation to accelerate deployment of energy efficiency technologies and solutions for the building sector. A February 2023 U.S.–Indonesia Joint Workshop on Decarbonizing the Building Sector yielded a NZW Indonesia Building Decarbonization Working Group (NZW IBDWG) with four sub-working groups (SWG): SWG-A National Center, SWG-B Capacity Building, SWG-C Investment and Financing, and SWG-D Pilot Projects. Technical analysis of whole-building cooling solutions for tropical climates of Indonesia was conducted by SWG-A to quantify energy savings, carbon dioxide reductions, and comfort improvements offered by 12 passive or low-energy cooling strategies: ceiling fans with and without thermostat setbacks; cool roofs; cool walls; exterior awnings; exterior shades; interior shades; insulated roofs; insulated walls; low-e windows; solar window films; and natural ventilation. Leveraging the results from SWG-A, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted by SWG-C to assess the consumer and national costs and impacts associated with these 12 cooling solutions. The evaluation involved estimating life-cycle costs (LCC), payback period (PBP), net present values (NPV), annual electricity burden change for low-income households, and reduced national annual power-sector generation demand by 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. This evaluation can help guide Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) investments in policies and programs to advance research, development, deployment, and commercial adoption (RDDCA) of efficient residential building sector cooling technologies and solutions in Indonesia. Four key energy conservation measures (ECM) have been identified to reduce air-conditioning (AC) energy demand in single-family housing in Indonesia: ceiling fan with temperature setback (to 28.1 °Celcius from 25 °C); insulated walls; insulated roof; and cool roof. This study found that low-income households with AC installations in Indonesia currently face a high energy cost burden of approximately 10%. However, by implementing a ceiling fan with temperature setback, this burden could decrease to 2.5% today and further reduce to 1.3% by the year 2060. The PBP for a ceiling fan with temperature setback is one year, indicating one of the lowest LCC and best NPV. In the planned upcoming phase of CBA, a series of building cooling improvement scenarios can be further defined, incorporating more than one ECM in combination with socio-economic factors evaluated in the initial CBA phase. Additionally, the analysis of ECM effects in multifamily housing can be expanded. This broader national analysis aims to encompass a holistic and comprehensive system-level perspective, including factors such as avoided power sector infrastructure investments, domestic job creation, domestic manufacturing job creation, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis and Optimization of a Compressed-Air Energy Storage System Integrated with a Natural Gas Combined-Cycle Plant

To address the rising electricity demand and greenhouse gas concentration in the environment, considerable effort is being carried out across the globe on installing and operating renewable energy sources. However, the renewable energy production is affected by diurnal and seasonal variability. To ensure that the electric grid remains reliable and resilient even for the high penetration of renewables into the grid, various types of energy storage systems are being investigated. In this paper, a compressed-air energy storage (CAES) system integrated with a natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plant is investigated where air is extracted from the gas turbine compressor or injected back into the gas turbine combustor when it is optimal to do so. First-principles dynamic models of the NGCC plant and CAES are developed along with the development of an economic model. The dynamic optimization of the integrated system is undertaken in the Python/Pyomo platform for maximizing the net present value (NPV). NPV optimization is undertaken for 14 regions/cases considering year-long locational marginal price (LMP) data with a 1 h interval. Design variables such as the storage capacity and storage pressure, as well as the operating variables such as the power plant load, air injection rate, and air extraction rate, are optimized. Results show that the integrated CAES system has a higher NPV than the NGCC-only system for all 14 regions, thus indicating the potential deployment of the integrated system under the assumption of the availability of caverns in close proximity to the NGCC plant. The levelized cost of storage is found to be in the range of 136–145 $/MWh. Roundtrip efficiency is found to be between 74.6–82.5%. A sensitivity study with respect to LMP shows that the LMP profile has a significant impact on the extent of air injection/extraction while capital expenditure reduction has a negligible effect.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1993

Green vegetation, nonphotosynthetic vegetation, and soils in AVIRIS data

The problem of distinguishing between green vegetation, nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV, such as dry grass, leaf litter, and woody material), and soils in imaging-spectrometer data is addressed by analyzing an image taken by the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) over the Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve (California) on September 20, 1989, using spectral mixture analysis. Over 98 percent of the spectral variation could be explained by linear mixtures of three endmembers, green vegetation, shade, and soil. NPV, which could not be distinguished from soil when included as an endmember, was discriminated by residual spectra that contained cellulose and lignin absorptions. Distinct communities of green vegetation were distinguished by (1) nonlinear mixing effect caused by transmission and scattering by green leaves, (2) variations in a derived canopy-shade spectrum, and (3) the fraction of NPV.

Roberts, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Temporal changes in endmember abundances, liquid water and water vapor over vegetation at Jasper Ridge

Imaging spectrometry offers a new way of deriving ecological information about vegetation communities from remote sensing. Applications include derivation of canopy chemistry, measurement of column atmospheric water vapor and liquid water, improved detectability of materials, more accurate estimation of green vegetation cover and discrimination of spectrally distinct green leaf, non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV: litter, wood, bark, etc.) and shade spectra associated with different vegetation communities. Much of our emphasis has been on interpreting Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometry (AVIRIS) data spectral mixtures. Two approaches have been used, simple models, where the data are treated as a mixture of 3 to 4 laboratory/field measured spectra, known as reference endmembers (EM's), applied uniformly to the whole image, to more complex models where both the number of EM's and the types of EM's vary on a per-pixel basis. Where simple models are applied, materials, such as NPV, which are spectrally similar to soils, can be discriminated on the basis of residual spectra. One key aspect is that the data are calibrated to reflectance and modeled as mixtures of reference EM's, permitting temporal comparison of EM fractions, independent of scene location or data type. In previous studies the calibration was performed using a modified-empirical line calibration, assuming a uniform atmosphere across the scene. In this study, a Modtran-based calibration approach was used to map liquid water and atmospheric water vapor and retrieve surface reflectance from three AVIRIS scenes acquired in 1992 over the Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve. The data were acquired on June 2nd, September 4th and October 6th. Reflectance images were analyzed as spectral mixtures of reference EM's using a simple 4 EM model. Atmospheric water vapor derived from Modtran was compared to elevation, and community type. Liquid water was compare to the abundance of NPV, Shade and Green Vegetation (VG) for select sites to determine whether a relationship existed, and under what conditions the relationship broke down. Temporal trends in endmember fractions, liquid water and atmospheric water vapor were investigated also. The combination of spectral mixture analysis and the Modtran based atmospheric/liquid water models was used to develop a unique vegetation community description.

Roberts, Dar A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗
DOE OSTI2024

Environmental and economic analyses of chemical recycling via dissolution of waste polyethylene terephthalate

Globally, more than 1000 organizations and 175 nations are facing the plastic waste problem and have realized the need to transition from “linear-to-circular” economy of plastics. While the current mechanical recycling technologies for plastics are struggling to increase the U.S. plastic recycling rates beyond 9%, chemical recycling technologies become important complementary technologies to the predominant mechanical recycling that are needed to realize the circular economy in plastics supply chains. Dissolution is one such chemical recycling technology that can recycle waste plastic back into high-quality virgin grade plastic. However, the environmental and economic impacts of chemical recycling of waste polyethylene terephthalate (PET) via dissolution technology using a green solvent are unknown. Our study evaluated environmental metrics such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and cumulative energy demand, and economic metrics such as net present value (NPV), minimum selling price, payback period, return on investment, and discounted internal rate of return for three dissolution processes with polymer recovery via anti-solvent, evaporation, and cooling precipitation techniques. The dissolution process with evaporation technique was the most economically favorable, whereas that with cooling technique was the most environmentally favorable. The anti-solvent approach had low economic performance and the highest environmental impacts. The NPV for all of these technologies ranged from $2.67 MM to $10.93 MM for a capacity of 8,400 MT/year and was found to be the highest for dissolution with evaporation approach and the least for anti-solvent approach. The cradle-to-gate GHG emissions and energy demand for PET dissolution processes ranged from 1.33-3.77 kg CO2-eq/kg of chemically recycled (CR) PET and18.9-56.1 MJ/kg of CR-PET, respectively. These economic and environmental metrics will be helpful in evaluating the sustainability of circular PET supply chains in the U.S.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable recovery of critical metals from spent lithium-ion batteries through gluconic acid-based bioleaching: Techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment and process optimization

Recycling spent lithium-ion batteries (LIB) could potentially bridge the ever increasing supply and demand gap for critical metals and simultaneously facilitate the management of hazardous battery waste. This study investigated the optimization of gluconic acid-based bioleaching technology through design of experiments (DOE), combined with techno-economic analysis (TEA), and life cycle assessment (LCA) with the aim of maximizing the net present value (NPV) and minimizing global warming impacts of the process. Biolixiviant containing predominantly gluconic acid produced by the genetically engineered (ΔpstS, P 112 :mgdh) Gluconobacter oxydans B58 through fermentation using non-recyclable paper as a growth substrate was used for the LIB leaching. At optimal bioleaching conditions of gluconic acid (160 mM), leaching time (2.5 h), reducing agent FeSO 4 to metal, i.e., cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni) and manganese (Mn), mole ratio (0.88), temperature (55 °C) and pulp density (2.5 %), the leaching efficiency was 87 % 72 %, 94 %, and 88 % for Co, Ni, Mn and lithium (Li), respectively. TEA analysis confirmed that bioleaching plant with an annual black mass processing capacity of 10,000 metric tons and plant life of 30 years would be economically viable with an NPV and profit margin of $136 million and 11 %, respectively. The predicted carbon footprint of gluconic acid-based bioleaching for recovering 1 kg of Co (13.2 kg of CO 2 eq.) is lower compared to that of most state-of-the-art leaching technologies. Moreover, gluconic acid-based bioleaching effectively recovered target metals when tested for different black mass chemistries.

Bioleaching↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic life cycle assessment of CO 2 -EOR operations towards net negative emissions at farnsworth field unit

Optimizations of CO 2 Water Alternating Gas(WAG)- systems with multi-objectives of incremental recovery and maximization of CO 2 storage are challenging. Here, the incorporation of a total Greenhouse gas (GHG) life cycle assessment is mostly ignored leading to inaccurate estimation of overall net carbon emissions of their operations. In this study, the effect of a total GHG life cycle assessment on a multi-objective CO 2 -WAG optimization with integrated techno-economic assessment (TEA) which factors carbon tax credit is conducted. A life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted utilizing a 20 -year optimized post history matched data from a high fidelity reservoir simulation model. Using data generated from the optimum result, a techno-economic life cycle analysis was further conducted. The first scenario classified as the base model had an estimated 81% of purchased CO 2 sequestered. The results through a comprehensive techno-economic LCA model yielded a net estimate of 73% of purchased CO 2 . The optimized forecasted model which considered key operational and reservoir factors such as WAG ratio, injection rates and periods, and well specification resulted in an improved sequestration of 92% of purchased CO 2 . However, this also dropped to 84% after taking it through LCA. These results clearly indicate a significant amount of net CO 2 is not accounted for when operations are not analyzed through LCA. From the LCA, direct flaring volumes of CO 2 , energy consumption and efficiency of unit equipment were noticed to be the major causes of these reductions. Considering ten main sources of energy as source of energy generation, a comparative techno-eco LCA was conducted. The results confirmed a lower net volume and NPV for energy sources with higher carbon footprints and vice versa. Thus, a total LCA of CO 2 -WAG greatly influences net storage factor of purchased CO 2 and hence project NPV where tax credit/incentives per ton of CO 2 sequestered is considered. Although operational conditions are optimized for best results, there are significant factors that leads to minimization of net storage factor. This study therefore provides an insightful information for optimizing CO 2 -WAG multi-objectives to achieve minimum GHG emission.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing fuel cycle design options for advanced microreactors

Microreactor (MR) technology have recently gained traction due to their reduced construction cost compared to traditional large reactors. Their small physical geometry results in increased neutron leakage and deteriorated neutron economy which limits the achievable burnup of MR fuel. Refueling strategy currently discussed in MR design community is the battery-like refueling which is involve replacing the entire reactor core at the end of their operational cycle. Here, this paper investigates partial core refueling as means to increase MR fuel burnup and improve fuel cycle economy as a result. Two fuel cycle design strategies have been successful. These are the partial core refueling and partial core refueling combined with assembly rotation. Both strategies have been tested to operate a heatpipe-cooled MR referred to as the eVinci-like core for 72 Effective Full Power Months (EFPMs). The partial core refueling showed to reduce the refueling requirements by 18% compared to the battery-like refueling strategy. This corresponds to 10.5% reduction in the Net Present Value (NPV) of fuel cost over the 72 EFPMs of operation. The partial core refueling combined with rotation case reduces the refueling requirements by 29% (corresponding to 14.5% reduction in NPV of fuel cost) compared to the battery-like refueling strategy.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the polygeneration approach in wastewater treatment plants for enhanced energy efficiency and green hydrogen/ammonia production

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) offer opportunities to optimize resource utilization and enhance energy efficiency. Here, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of using the polygeneration approach in WWTPs to reduce grid energy dependence, optimize energy distribution, and utilize surplus energy for hydrogen (H 2 ) and ammonia (NH 3 ) production. Several models were employed, including photovoltaic (PV) cells, parabolic trough collectors (PTCs), steam methane reforming, and polymer electrolyte membranes, to assess the feasibility of this approach. Three scenarios were evaluated and compared: Scenario 1 (Baseline) represents the current situation, Scenario 2 maximizes the Net Present Value (NPV), and Scenario 3 minimizes NH 3 production costs. Real data from As-Samra WWTP in Jordan was used to accurately assess the feasibility of each scenario. The results show that Scenario 2 offers the highest profitability and efficiency, with a NPV of 87.48 million USD and an annual NH 3 production of 15,417 tons, reducing both grid dependency and biogas fuel consumption. Both Scenarios 2 and 3 demonstrate the ability to meet thermal demands efficiently while generating significant revenue from NH 3 production. Scenario 3, in particular, achieves competitive H 2 and NH 3 production costs. Environmentally, Scenario 2 significantly reduces annual greenhouse gas emissions by 12.66 kilotons of CO 2eq , with near-zero carbon intensity for thermal energy due to solar reliance. In conclusion, the polygeneration approach offers a promising pathway for WWTPs to achieve greater sustainability, economic gains, and reduced environmental impact, providing valuable insights for decision-makers.

42 ENGINEERING↗