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Examining United States Nuclear Weapon Educational Initiatives_A Quantitative Research Study on the Satisfaction of Participants Within the Nuclear Weapons Community

This study focused on a few United States nuclear weapons educational initiatives exploring six classroom environment factors that may or may not influence Satisfaction in a virtual or live classroom environment within the nuclear weapons community. The research explored Personalization, Involvement, Student Cohesiveness, Task Orientation, Innovation, and Individualization. The United States nuclear weapons community needed to attract new and talented individuals to the nuclear weapons profession. This study added to the nuclear weapons community by researching factors that may aid academic instructors, and curriculum developers create new and inventive ways of incorporating these factors into existing or new nuclear weapons educational courses. Convenience sampling was the data collection method used to gather quantitative research data. One hundred and seven voluntary participants utilized the College and University Classroom Environment Inventory with the Los Alamos National Laboratory's consent. There is not much concurrent research on Satisfaction within the live and virtual classroom environment. This research was vital for future research into how to increase participant satisfaction. The study provided the nuclear weapons community with grounded analysis to help create and guide new classes and course creation, possibly increasing Satisfaction in a live and virtual classroom environment. According to binary logistic regression, there was a statistically significant relationship among the dependent variable, Satisfaction, and two independent variables, Involvement, and Task Orientation in the classroom environment within the nuclear weapons community. Future nuclear educational programs may increase Satisfaction in the classroom environment by increasing participant Involvement and Task Orientation within a class using the CUCEI as a reference.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Chemical speciation of U, Fe, and Pu in melt glass from nuclear weapons testing

Nuclear weapons testing generates large volumes of glassy materials that influence the transport of dispersed actinides in the environment and may carry information on the composition of the detonated device. We determine the oxidation state of U and Fe (which is known to buffer the oxidation state of actinide elements and to affect the redox state of groundwater) in samples of melt glass collected from three U.S. nuclear weapons tests. For selected samples, we also determine the coordination geometry of U and Fe, and we report the oxidation state of Pu from one melt glass sample. We find significant variations among the melt glass samples and, in particular, find a clear deviation in one sample from the expected buffering effect of Fe(II)/Fe(III) on the oxidation state of uranium. In the first direct measurement of Pu oxidation state in a nuclear test melt glass, we obtain a result consistent with existing literature that proposes Pu is primarily present as Pu(IV) in post-detonation material. In addition, our measurements imply that highly mobile U(VI) may be produced in significant quantities when melt glass is quenched rapidly following a nuclear detonation, though these products may remain immobile in the vitrified matrices. The observed differences in chemical state among the three samples show that redox conditions can vary dramatically across different nuclear test conditions. The local soil composition, associated device materials, and the rate of quenching are all likely to affect the final redox state of the glass. The resulting variations in glass chemistry are significant for understanding and interpreting debris chemistry and the later environmental mobility of dispersed material.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Examining United States Nuclear Weapon Educational Initiatives: A Quantitative Research Study on the Satisfaction of Participants Within the Nuclear Weapons Community [Slides]

This study focused on United States nuclear weapons educational programs exploring six classroom environment factors that may or may not influence Satisfaction in a virtual/live classroom environment within the nuclear weapons community. The research explored Personalization, Involvement, Student Cohesiveness, Task Orientation, Innovation, and Individualization, controlling for Gender, Age, and Education. This study added to the nuclear weapons community by researching factors that may aid academic instructors and curriculum developers create new and inventive ways of incorporating these factors into existing or new nuclear weapons educational courses.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Make the World Safer from Nuclear Weapons

Senior Nuclear Scientist Ted Bowyer knows firsthand the challenges associated with protecting our nation. Ted and his colleagues help detect the proliferation of nuclear weapons. They developed award-winning technologies that give international treaty verification authorities “eyes and ears” around the globe. The instruments, located in 80 countries, help ensure compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty, or CTBT. They are completely automated radionuclide monitoring systems that would detect airborne radioactive particles if a nuclear detonation occurred in the air, underground or at sea. Some samples collected through these technologies are sent to PNNL’s Shallow Underground Laboratory—the only certified U.S. radionuclide laboratory for the CTBT’s International Monitoring System Organization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Building Foundations for Nuclear Security Enterprise Analysis Utilizing Nuclear Weapon Data

The Nuclear Security Enterprise, managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration - a semiautonomous agency within the Department of Energy - has been associated with numerous assessments with respect to the estimating, management capabilities, and practices pertaining to nuclear weapon modernization efforts. This report identifies challenges in estimating and analyzing the Nuclear Security Enterprise through an analysis of analogous timeframe conditions utilizing two types of nuclear weapon data - (1) a measure of effort and (2) a function of time. The analysis of analogous timeframe conditions that utilizes only two types of nuclear weapon data yields four summary observations that estimators and analysts of the Nuclear Security Enterprise will find useful.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Nuclear Weapon Culture

Presentation Overview: Nuclear Weapon Culture; Nuclear Weapon Culture; Manhattan Project Secrecy & Intelligence; Pre-Hiroshima & Nagasaki; Surety; Propaganda; Living in the Nuclear Age

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Nuclear Weapon Accident Response Overview

Presentation Overview: Nuclear Weapon Accident Response Overview; Nuclear Weapon Accident Definition; Nuclear Weapon Incident Definition; Nuclear Accident/Incident Flag Words; Guiding Documents; U.S. Nuclear Weapon Accidents; Response Forces

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Proposal to Develop Neutrino Diagnostics for Nuclear Weapons Tests

A nuclear weapon test would be a prolific source of neutrinos in a relatively short time window (<1 s). These neutrinos could be easily detected at distances of 10s of meters or more by detector technology that has been developed for studying neutrino interactions from nuclear reactors. Such a concept was already proposed at LANL in the 50’s but was finally reject for a more controlled experiment at a nuclear reactor – this latter method went on to win the 1995 Nobel prize in physics for the detection of the neutrino. However, times have changed and revisiting this concept could have new unappreciated applications.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

One in a Million Given the Accident: Assuring Nuclear Weapon Safety

Since the introduction of nuclear weapons, there has not been a single instance of accidental or unauthorized nuclear detonation, but there have been numerous accidents and “close calls.” As the understanding of these environments has increased, the need for a robust nuclear weapon safety philosophy has grown. This paper describes some of the methods used by the Nuclear Weapon Complex today to assure nuclear weapon safety, including testing, modeling, analysis, and design features. Lastly, it also reviews safety’s continued role in the future and examines how nuclear safety’s present maturity can play a role in strengthening security and other areas and how increased coordination can improve safety and reduce long-term cost.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Mitigating the Threat of Nuclear-Weapon Proliferation via Nuclear-Submarine Programs

Brazil is building a nuclear-powered attack submarine, South Korea has in the past asserted its need for nuclear-powered attack submarines to deal with the threat of North Korean nuclear-armed submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and Iran has asserted more vaguely its need for naval nuclear propulsion. All three countries are non-weapon-state parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Their interest in naval reactors brings with it two challenges to the NPT: 1) The safeguards “loophole” under which a country can withdraw nuclear materials from IAEA safeguards indefinitely for allowed “non-peaceful activities;” and 2) A justification for the acquisition of national uranium-enrichment facilities because the international suppliers of enrichment services have peaceful-use requirements. In fact, Brazil’s acquisition of enrichment was driven by its navy. It is argued, however, that nuclear-powered attack submarines have advantages over modern conventional attack submarines primarily in their ability to transit great distances at high speed whereas only a few countries have foreign military commitments requiring such capabilities. For defense of nearby waters against foreign navies, attack submarines are merely one component of a complex system of anti-submarine aircraft and surface vessels and underwater sensor networks. Conventional attack submarines are no less effective and much less costly than nuclear-powered attack submarines in this role.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Nukes in the Post-Cold War Era A View of the World from Inside the US Nuclear Weapons Program

Why do we have nuclear weapons? What is in the US stockpile, how is it deployed and controlled, and how it has changed over the years? What is in the “nuclear weapons complex” and what does each lab and plant do? How do the DOE/NNSA Design Labs interact with the Intelligence Community? How does the US stockpile, NW complex, and NW policy compare with those of other countries? What is easy and hard about designing nuclear weapons?

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Fit for Purpose: An Evolutionary Strategy for the Implementation and Verification of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons requires States Parties to designate a “competent international authority or authorities” for negotiating and verifying the irreversible elimination of nuclear-weapons programs. Ensuring that such an authority or authorities is able to be fit for purpose when required to meet these tasks will be crucial for both the future implementation and legitimacy of the Treaty. To address this challenge, this article proposes the early creation of a two-part organizational structure, comprising an implementation support unit and a dedicated scientific and technical advisory body, to begin the process of institutionalizing the treaty, and build the technical basis for meeting its verification goals should a nuclear-weapon-possessing state decide to join. The article then discusses how such two-part structure could be scaled-up as a standing international organization tasked with the coordination of an ad hoc inspectorate, which would also cooperate and complement the work of existing nuclear verification organizations, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency. This evolutionary and adaptive strategy to institution building could empower the new Treaty by supporting the emergence of a new regime complex for nuclear disarmament, while taking into account the initially limited financial and technical resources of its member states.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Of Clouds and Craters: The History of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Testing

“Now!” With that word, the Atomic Age – and the era of nuclear weapons testing – dawned. The advent of World War II’s first irresistible weapon, which had been secretly tested in the New Mexico desert in July 1945, would help hasten the inevitable: complete victory for the Allies. Codenamed Trinity, the test was the first of over a thousand conducted by the United States between 1945 and 1992. Nuclear weapons would change future clashes as well. The looming Cold War, with roots stretching all the way back to 1917, was history’s first conflict between two, major nations armed with nuclear weapons. It is clear the existence of those weapons played an important role in maintaining a tenuous peace between the United States and the Soviet Union; it is also clear nuclear weapons testing played a prominent role in fueling both the arms race and the success of deterrence. Yet, the history of nuclear weapons testing is rarely remembered, even though nuclear tests have been performed in the very recent past. Of the estimated 2,000-plus nuclear tests ever performed, the U.S. is responsible for approximately half. This is the story of U.S. full-scale nuclear weapons testing.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Project on Nuclear Gaming: Investigating the Impact of Nuclear Weapons Capabilities on Deterrence: May 2-3, 2018 Workshop Summary

In the future, it may be possible for states to construct nuclear weapons with alternative effects that are optimized for specific military purposes. These nuclear weapon concepts might employ features such as enhanced radiation outputs (ER), electromagnetic pulse (EMP), or other approaches such as high-precision, low-yield systems (HPLY) that reduce collateral damage, but improve lethality to targets. Some have speculated that such weapons could have the effect of lowering the threshold of use for nuclear weapons by reducing the negative incentives to their use or by providing new military applications for nuclear weapons. A nuclear arsenal that includes weapons with alternate effect regimes may also have an impact on the calculus of escalation in a conflict scenario. This project of the University of California, Berkeley (UCB), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) investigates the potential impacts of alternate nuclear weapons effects regimes on deterrence and strategic stability using experimental gaming methods. The purpose of this document is to capture the research questions, assumptions, scenario characteristics, and other details that provide the framework used to address this challenge presented during the first workshop discussion hosted by the Center for Global Security Research at LLNL with subject matter experts from government, academia, and the private sector. The report also summarizes feedback from participants. Topics discussed during the workshop included alternative effects of nuclear weapons, existing approaches for modeling and measuring conflict, and the state of the art in experimental game design.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗