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National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Overview.
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National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Overview.
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FY16 Analysis report: Financial systems dependency on communications
Within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis (OCIA)'s National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) develops capabilities to support the DHS mission and the resilience of the Nation’s critical infrastructure. At Sandia National Laboratories, under DHS/OCIA direction, NISAC is developing models of financial sector dependence on communications. This capability is designed to improve DHS's ability to assess potential impacts of communication disruptions to major financial services and the effectiveness of possible mitigations. This report summarizes findings and recommendations from the application of that capability as part of the FY2016 NISAC program plan.
Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests
The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.
Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2013 capability development report
This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.
Computable General Equilibrium Model Fiscal Year 2013 Capability Development Report - April 2014
This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.
Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation
Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying the event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.
Modeling the Internet
The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) has developed a nationwide model of the Internet to study the potential impact of the loss of physical facilities on the network and on other infrastructures that depend on the Internet for services. The model looks at the Internet from the perspective of Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and their connectivity and can be used to determine how the network connectivity could be modified to assist in mitigating an event. In addition the model could be used to explore how portions of the network could be made more resilient to disruptive events.
Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks
The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.
Prepared Statement of Dr. John Sarrao, Principal Associate Director, Science, Technology & Engineering, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Los Alamos has a 75 -year tradition of solving complex national security challenges using an interdisciplinary, team-based approach, providing solutions to decision makers. Our work in infrastructure analysis and grid research exemplifies this approach and includes our role in the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center supported by the Department of Homeland Security. Further, exercising and expanding our capabilities in these areas directly contributes to the successful performance of our core mission in stewarding the United States’ nuclear deterrent.
Topography-based Flood Planning and Optimization Capability Development Report
Globally, water-related disasters are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards. Flooding inflicts catastrophic damage on critical infrastructure and population, resulting in substantial economic and social costs. NISAC is developing LeveeSim, a suite of nonlinear and network optimization models, to predict optimal barrier placement to protect critical regions and infrastructure during flood events. LeveeSim currently includes a high-performance flood model to simulate overland flow, as well as a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement during a flood event. The LeveeSim suite models the effects of flooding in predefined regions. By manipulating a domain’s underlying topography, developers altered flood propagation to reduce detrimental effects in areas of interest. This numerical altering of a domain’s topography is analogous to building levees, placing sandbags, etc. To induce optimal changes in topography, NISAC used a novel application of an optimization algorithm to minimize flooding effects in regions of interest. To develop LeveeSim, NISAC constructed and coupled hydrodynamic and optimization algorithms. NISAC first implemented its existing flood modeling software to use massively parallel graphics processing units (GPUs), which allowed for the simulation of larger domains and longer timescales. NISAC then implemented a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement based on output from flood simulations. As proof of concept, NISAC developed five simple test scenarios, and optimized topographic solutions were compared with intuitive solutions. Finally, as an early validation example, barrier placement was optimized to protect an arbitrary region in a simulation of the historic Taum Sauk dam breach.
The ATLAS Workflow Management System Evolution in the LHC Run3 and towards the High-Luminosity LHC era
The ATLAS experiment has 18+ years of experience using workload management systems to deploy and develop workflows to process and to simulate data on the distributed computing infrastructure. Simulation, processing and analysis of LHC experiment data require the coordinated work of heterogeneous computing resources. In particular, the ATLAS experiment utilizes the resources of 250 computing centers worldwide, the power of supercomputing centres, and national, academic and commercial cloud computing resources. In this contribution, we present new techniques for cost-effectively improving efficiency introduced in workflow management system software. The evolution from a mesh framework to new types of computing facilities such as cloud and HPCs is described, as well as new types of production and analysis workflows.
Air Flow Modeling in the Wind Tunnel of the FHWA Aerodynamics Laboratory at Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center
Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling is widely used in industry for design and in the research community to support, compliment, and extend the scope of experimental studies. Analysis of transportation infrastructure using high performance cluster computing with CFD and structural mechanics software is done at the Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center (TRACC) at Argonne National Laboratory. These resources, available at TRACC, were used to perform advanced three-dimensional computational simulations of the wind tunnel laboratory at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC). The goals were to verify the CFD model of the laboratory wind tunnel and then to use versions of the model to provide the capability to (1) perform larger parametric series of tests than can be easily done in the laboratory with available budget and time, (2) to extend testing to wind speeds that cannot be achieved in the laboratory, and (3) to run types of tests that are very difficult or impossible to run in the laboratory. Modern CFD software has many physics models and domain meshing options. Models, including the choice of turbulence and other physics models and settings, the computational mesh, and the solver settings, need to be validated against measurements to verify that the results are sufficiently accurate for use in engineering applications. The wind tunnel model was built and tested, by comparing to experimental measurements, to provide a valuable tool to perform these types of studies in the future as a complement and extension to TFHRC’s experimental capabilities. Wind tunnel testing at TFHRC is conducted in a subsonic open-jet wind tunnel with a 1.83 m (6 foot) by 1.83 m (6 foot) cross section. A three component dual force-balance system is used to measure forces acting on tested models, and a three degree of freedom suspension system is used for dynamic response tests. Pictures of the room are shown in Figure 1-1 to Figure 1-4. A detailed CAD geometry and CFD model of the wind tunnel laboratory at TFHRC was built and tested. Results were compared against experimental wind velocity measurements at a large number of locations around the room. This testing included an assessment of the air flow uniformity provided by the tunnel to the test zone and assessment of room geometry effects, such as influence of the proximity the room walls, the non-symmetrical position of the tunnel in the room, and the influence of the room setup on the air flow in the room. This information is useful both for simplifying the computational model and in deciding whether or not moving, or removing, some of the furniture or other movable objects in the room will change the flow in the test zone.
Department of Energy. Jobs and Innovation Accelerator Challenge (JIAC) Program
1.1 NCMS Digital Manufacturing Initiative The people and businesses of Southeast Michigan have long been known for their prowess in the automotive industry, a sector built on the innovation of the assembly line and the rise of mass production as a manufacturing model. Just as the assembly line was the key to a strong manufacturing base a century ago, a digital manufacturing infrastructure is critical to the future of industry. Economic uncertainty has slowed innovation, but access to cutting-edge tools such as high performance modeling, simulation and analysis (MSA) provides a bold path forward, ensuring global competitiveness and transforming our manufacturing processes. Digital manufacturing is, essentially, the virtualization of processes that had been physical. Many larger manufacturers have embraced it, but the majority of small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs) have not. The Digital Manufacturing Initiative is a bold, national effort by the National Center for Manufacturing Sciences (NCMS) to put manufacturing innovation on fast forward, and bring the future of industry into the present. SMMs need a broader array of access options, training, support, and guidance. Providing access will supercharge any organization with tomorrow’s tools, as positively disruptive and potential-laden as the assembly line once was. Sustainable success in the State of Michigan requires the development of foundational infrastructure, the exploration of initial inroads with various manufacturers of all sizes, and the initiation of a prototype engagement mechanism applicable for other future regional efforts. To accomplish this NCMS leveraged complimen-tary State and Federal funding opportunities (shown in Figure 1) along with a coupled voice of industry market research study. A brief summary of each opportunity is found in Appendix A. At the heart of the Michigan effort was the development of an access portal (www.doitindigital.com) and the development of partnerships with local large manufacturers (OEMs) who could provide pull to encourage SMMs (current and future suppliers) to participate. Central to this entire effort was the opportunity that this Final Report documents corresponding to the specific tasks associated with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded component of the InnoState Jobs Innovation Accelerator Challenge (JIAC) Program.
Infrastructure improvements in the National Reactor Innovation Center Virtual Test Bed
The National Reactor Innovation Center’s (NRIC) mission is to support deployment of novel reactor concepts. This is achieved by providing physical and virtual spaces for building and testing various components, systems, and complete pilot plants. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB) represents the virtual counterpart to the physical test bed. The VTB is being developed in collaboration with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The mission of the VTB is to accelerate the deployment and licensing of advanced reactors by leveraging state-of-the-art modeling and simulation (M&S) tools developed by the DOE NEAMS program. This is accomplished via three primary means: (1) openly hosting simulations that showcase analysis capabilities, (2) continuously testing the models hosted against code updates to avoid deprecation, and (3) filling key M&S gaps that are relevant for the physical NRIC test beds. The VTB repository consists of two sub-entities: • A documentation website detailing the models: https://mooseframework.inl.gov/virtual_test_bed • A GitHub repository that hosts the corresponding files: https://github.com/idaholab/virtual_test_bed. This paper presents the infrastructure added to the VTB in the last two fiscal years. Additional information about the VTB can be found in various publications [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8].