SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Natural Probabilities”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Analysis for a Criticality Benchmark [Slides]

This presentation discusses how KRUSTY was analyzed with LANL’s MCNP neutron transport code, Monte Carlo N-Particle. In the Monte Carlo method, neutrons are born in fission events and fly around the geometry having events (e.g., scatter, capture, fission, escape) according to the natural probabilities. “Natural probabilities” are given as neutron cross sections , which are measured and evaluated nuclear data. One of the goals of the benchmark project is to improve the nuclear cross sections (and the codes that use them). In this work, the response of interest is called k eff , which describes the neutron multiplication in a near critical system. Like most quantities, k eff is not measured directly; it is only inferred. In summation, MCNP results for k eff matched the measurements extremely well. The evaluated uncertainties are asymmetric and smaller than 0.00100 (e.g., + 0.00080 / – 0.00062). The largest uncertainties are due to alignment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Analysis for a Criticality Benchmark [Slides]

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Methodological Overview of Seismic Analysis for Nuclear Event Detection

Underground explosions generate potentially detectable signatures, including energy waves that travel through the Earth’s subsurface (i.e., seismic waves), low-frequency sound waves (i.e., infrasound and hydroacoustic waves), and radioactive gases and/or particles that might leak from the test cavity (if the event was nuclear). There can also be intelligence indicators of a test, such as observations of modified patterns of life and activity at a suspected test site. If all of these detectable signatures and intelligence indicators are present and self-consistent, then analysts have high confidence in classifying a signature generating event as an explosion. However, because only partial information about an event is likely to be available, determining whether an event was natural (e.g., an earthquake or landslide) or manmade (e.g., a chemical or nuclear explosion) is much more challenging. This primer describes how one category of event signatures—seismic signatures—can augment event analyses. While universities and government organizations have generated detailed technical descriptions of seismic analytic techniques, we seek to translate seismic event analysis for a broad, non-technical audience. When the geologic conditions near an event are well-characterized, seismic data can be used to calculate critical information, such as event location and depth, with relatively high accuracy. Moreover, specific features within seismic datasets can help determine whether an event was an explosion. However, a key challenge in seismic analysis is that geologic site conditions are often poorly characterized, complicating the ability to discern the true nature of the event. To overcome this challenge, geologists answer a series of questions (discussed in section 1) to guide seismic event analysis and determine the most probable nature of an event. As more information is gathered during each analytic step, confidence grows regarding the nature of the event. Section 2 addresses uncertainties in seismic analysis and the vital nature of high-fidelity geologic data for accurate seismic event analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

The Soviet aim - A permanent base in space

The goals of the Soviet manned space program, which apparently include the establishment of a permanent manned presence in space, are discussed. The operational experience of the Salyut-6 space station, which in the past four years has hosted six major manned expeditions and 10 short visits, is considered, and the launch of the Cosmos 1267 spacecraft currently orbiting the earth attached to Salyut 6 is examined. The modular nature of Soviet space stations as a result of the relatively low power of their launch vehicles is noted. Attention is then given to the history of the Salyut program, particularly the design, operational history and equipment of Salyut 6, and to the probable nature of Cosmos 1267 as space station module which also carried an experimental reentry vehicle which returned to earth shortly after launch. The opposite directions of Soviet and American manned space programs, one towards permanent stations and the other toward quick, frequent and easy access to space, are emphasized, and the potential benefits of a coordinated approach are noted.

Oberg, J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

SIMS chemical analysis of extended impacts on the leading and trailing edges of LDEF experiment AO187-2

Numerous 'extended impacts' found in both leading and trailing edge capture cells were successfully analyzed for the chemical composition of projectile residues by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). Most data were obtained from the trailing edge cells where 45 of 58 impacts were classified as 'probably natural' and the remainder as 'possibly man-made debris.' This is in striking contrast to leading edge cells where 9 of 11 impacts so far measured are definitely classified as orbital debris. Although all the leading edge cells had lost their plastic entrance foils during flight, the rate of foil failure was similar to that of the trailing edge cells, 10 percent of which were recovered intact. Ultraviolet embrittlement is suspected as the major cause of failure on both leading and trailing edges. The major impediment to the accurate determination of projectile chemistry is the fractionation of volatile and refractory elements in the hypervelocity impact and redeposition processes. This effect had been noted in a simulation experiment but is more pronounced in the LDEF capture cells, probably due to the higher average velocities of the space impacts. Surface contamination of the pure Ge surfaces with a substance rich in Si, but also containing Mg and Al, provides an additional problem for the accurate determination of impactor chemistry. The effect is variable, being much larger on surfaces that were exposed to space than in those cells that remained intact. Future work will concentrate on the analyses of more leading edge impacts and the development of new SIMS techniques for the measurement of elemental abundances in extended impacts.

Amari, S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of LDEF experiment AO187-2: Chemically and isotopic measurements of micrometeoroids by secondary ion mass spectrometry

Numerous 'extended impacts' found in both leading and trailing edge capture cells have been successfully analyzed for the chemical composition of projectile residues by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). Most data have been obtained from the trailing edge cells where 45 of 58 impacts have been classified as 'probably natural' and the remainder as 'possibly man-made debris.' This is in striking contrast to leading edge cells where 9 of 11 impacts so far measured are definitely classified as orbital debris. Although all the leading edge cells had lost their plastic entrance foils during flight, the rate of foil failure was similar to that of the trailing edge cells, 10 percent of which were recovered intact. Ultra-violet embrittlement is suspected as the major cause of failure on both leading and trailing edges. The major impediment to the accurate determination of projectile chemistry is the fractionation of volatile and refractory elements in the hypervelocity impact and redeposition processes. This effect had been noticed in simulation experiment but is more pronounced in the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) capture cells, probably due to the higher average velocities of the space impacts. Surface contamination of the pure Ge surfaces with a substance rich in Si but also containing Mg and Al provides an additional problem for the accurate determination of impactor chemistry. The effect is variable, being much larger on surfaces that were exposed to space than in those cells that remained intact. Future work will concentrate on the analyses of more leading edge impacts and the development of new SIMS techniques for the measurement of elemental abundances in extended impacts.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1973

Engineering principles to assure compatible docking between future spacecraft of USA and USSR

An androgynous peripheral type docking mechanism concept selected by the U.S. and the USSR is described. The rationale supporting the selection of the concept, the mechanical principles inherent to the concept, and the probable nature of future designs stemming from the concept are discussed. Operational situations prior to docking, impact conditions, energy absorption, and structural joining of two spacecraft are examined.

Johnson, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Project BIOCORE /M212/, a biological cosmic ray experiment - Procedures, summary, and conclusions

The primary objective of the experiment was to determine whether a specific portion of the high Z-high energy (HZE) galactic cosmic ray particle spectrum, especially particles with Z no less than 6, can produce microscopically visible injury of brain and eye tissues. Pocket mice (Perognathus longimembris), obtained from the California desert, were selected as the biological target. Five of these mice were flown on Apollo XVII. Not only the brain and eyes but also many other tissues of these animals were studied for evidence of cosmic ray particle damage. The lack of prior experimental evidence as to the character of the potential injury induced by HZE particles required reliance on the physical characteristics of particle radiation in ascertaining the probable nature of the injury. These characteristics and the key aspects of the experiment are summarized in this paper. Subsequent articles in this special supplement give details of the biological, engineering, and dosimetric aspects of BIOCORE together with the results.

Haymaker, W.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Engineering principles to assure compatible docking between future spacecraft of USA and USSR

Working jointly the USA and the USSR have selected an androgynous, peripheral type docking mechanism concept. The mechanical principles inherent to the concept, the rationale supporting its selection, and the probable nature of future designs stemming from the concept, are described. Operational situations just prior to docking, impact conditions, energy absorption, and the structural joining of the spacecraft, are specified. Docking procedures for the Apollo-Soyuz missions are discussed.

Johnson, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The satellites of Uranus

Observations and the probable natures of the five known satellites of Uranus are reviewed. Photographic, photoelectric and CCD photometry of the satellites since 1961, although in agreement within experimental error, is not as mutually consistent as may be expected, and broadband JHK photometry falls in a portion of the J-H, H-K color diagram difficult to interpret. Spectrophotometry in the range 0.3-1.1 microns taken on two separate occasions is inconsistent, with only the relatively neutral reflectances of Titania and Oberon regarded as well established. Near-infrared spectrophotometry has revealed the presence of water ice or frost on the satellite surfaces, possibly in a very pure state, with spectra most similar to Ganymede. Estimations of the properties of the satellites from their surface geometric albedos, assumed mean densities and dynamics yield radii in the range 160-520 km, albedos on the order of 0.5 and densities of about 1.3 g/cu cm, similar to the icy Saturn satellites. The satellites are also believed to have formed after the event that caused the planet to tilt to its present obliquity.

Cruikshank, D. P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Collisional balance of the meteoritic complex

The present study has the objective to reevaluate the size distribution of interplanetary meteoroids on the basis of the most recent data, and to analyze the probable nature of the sinks and sources of meteoritic material. The flux of interplanetary meteorites at 1 AU is discussed, taking into account general characteristics, lunar crater distribution, flux curves, spatial densities, and cross-sectional distribution and light scattering. Collisional effects are examined, giving attention to catastrophic collisions, collision rate, and destroyed mass and generated fragments. The effect of radiation pressure on small particles is considered along with the difference between the lunar and interplanetary flux models, collisional evolution at 1 AU, potential sources for large meteoroids, and observational evidence of losses of small micrometeoroids.

Gruen, E.↗

NASA NTRS1936

A comparison of corrosion-resistant steel (18 percent chromium - 8 percent nickel) and aluminum alloy (24st)

In the selection of materials for aircraft application, it is not enough to make the selection on a strength-weight basis alone. A strength-weight comparison is significant but other factors must be considered, for while a material with a high ratio of strength to weight may be perfectly satisfactory for one use, it may be totally unfitted for another. It is essential, among other things, that the probable nature, magnitude, and direction of the principal stresses be given special consideration. The following analysis has therefore been made with this in mind. An attempt has been made to cover insofar as possible the major, but not all the points, that a designer would consider in the use of "18-8", as it is commonly referred to, and 24ST aluminum alloy, as applied to aircraft. 24ST was selected for this comparison as it has practically replaced 17ST for aircraft construction and it appears to have the best combination of properties of the alloys now available for this purpose. The cost of fabrication has not been considered.

Sullivan, J E↗

NASA NTRS2000

Natural transfer of viable microbes in space

The possibility and probability of natural transfer of viable microbes from Mars to Earth and Earth to Mars traveling in meteoroids during the first 0.5 Ga and the following 4 Ga are investigated, including: --radiation protection against the galactic cosmic ray nuclei and the solar rays, dose rates as a function of the meteorite's radial column mass (radius x density), combined with dose rates generated by natural radioactivity within the meteorite; and survival curves for some bacterial species using NASA's HZETRN transport code --other factors affecting microbe survival: vacuum; central meteorite temperatures at launch, orbiting, and arrival; pressure and acceleration at launch; spontaneous DNA decay; metal ion migration --mean sizes and numbers of unshocked meteorites ejected and percentage falling on Earth, using current semiempirical results --viable flight times for the microbe species Bacillus subtilis and Deinococcus radiodurans R1 --the approximate fraction of microbes (with properties like the two species studied) viably arriving on Earth out of those ejected from Mars during the period 4 Ga BP to the present time, and during the 700 Ma from 4.5 to 3.8 Ga. Similarly, from Earth to Mars. The conclusion is that if microbes existed or exist on Mars, viable transfer to Earth is not only possible but also highly probable, due to microbes' impressive resistance to the dangers of space transfer and to the dense traffic of billions of martian meteorites which have fallen on Earth since the dawn of our planetary system. Earth-to-Mars transfer is also possible but at a much lower frequency.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2004

Joint-probability Analysis of the Natural Variability of Tropical Oceanic Precipitation

Data projects pertaining to KWAJEX are described.Data sets delivered to the Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC): 1) Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX) S-band calibrated, quality-controlled radar data, 1221 1 files of 3D volume data and 6832 files of 2D low-level reflectivity. 2) Raw and quality-control- processed versions of University of Washington Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer measurements obtained during KWAJEX. 3) A time series of synoptic-scale gif images of the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) IR data for the KWAJEX period. The GMS satellite data set for the KWAJEX period was obtained from the University of Wisconsin and reprocessed into format amenable for comparison with radar data.Aircraft microphysics flight-leg definitions for all aircraft and all missions during KWAJEX were completed to facilitate microphysics data processing.

Yuter, Sandra E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Weak Scale Supersymmetry Emergent from the String Landscape

Superstring flux compactifications can stabilize all moduli while leading to an enormous number of vacua solutions, each leading to different 4−d laws of physics. While the string landscape provides at present the only plausible explanation for the size of the cosmological constant, it may also predict the form of weak scale supersymmetry which is expected to emerge. Rather general arguments suggest a power-law draw to large soft terms, but these are subject to an anthropic selection of a not-too-large value for the weak scale. The combined selection allows one to compute relative probabilities for the emergence of supersymmetric models from the landscape. Models with weak scale naturalness appear most likely to emerge since they have the largest parameter space on the landscape. For finetuned models such as high-scale SUSY or split SUSY, the required weak scale finetuning shrinks their parameter space to tiny volumes, making them much less likely to appear compared to natural models. Probability distributions for sparticle and Higgs masses from natural models show a preference for Higgs mass mh∼125 GeV, with sparticles typically beyond the present LHC limits, in accord with data. From these considerations, we briefly describe how natural SUSY is expected to be revealed at future LHC upgrades. This article is a contribution to the Special Edition of the journal Entropy, honoring Paul Frampton on his 80th birthday.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1976

The statistical significance of error probability as determined from decoding simulations for long codes

The very low error probability obtained with long error-correcting codes results in a very small number of observed errors in simulation studies of practical size and renders the usual confidence interval techniques inapplicable to the observed error probability. A natural extension of the notion of a 'confidence interval' is made and applied to such determinations of error probability by simulation. An example is included to show the surprisingly great significance of as few as two decoding errors in a very large number of decoding trials.

Massey, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The enigma of lunar magnetism

Current understandings of the nature and probable origin of lunar magnetism are surveyed. Results of examinations of returned lunar samples are discussed which reveal the main carrier of the observed natural remanent magnetization to be iron, occasionally alloyed with nickel and cobalt, but do not distinguish between thermoremanent and shock remanent origins, and surface magnetometer data is presented, which indicates small-scale magnetic fields with a wide range of field intensities implying localized, near-surface sources. A detailed examination is presented of orbital magnetometer and charged particle data concerning the geologic nature and origin of magnetic anomaly sources and the directional properties of the magnetization, which exhibit a random distribution except for a depletion in the north-south direction. A lunar magnetization survey with global coverage provided by a polar orbiting satellite is suggested as a means of placing stronger constraints on the origin of lunar crustal magnetization.

Hood, L. L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Geologic Mapping of the V-36 Thetis Regio Quadrangle: 2008 Progress Report

As a result of mapping, eleven material stratigraphic units and three structural units have been identified and mapped. The material units include (from older to younger): tessera terrain material (tt), material of densely fractured plains (pdf), material of fractured and ridged plains (pfr), material of shield plains (psh), material of plains with wrinkle ridges (pwr), material of smooth plains of intermediate brightness (psi), material of radardark smooth plains (psd), material of lineated plains (pli) material of lobate plains (plo), material of craters having no radar-dark haloes (c1), and material of craters having clear dark haloes (c2). The morphologies and probably the nature of the material units in the study area are generally similar to those observed in other regions of Venus [2]. The youngest units are lobate plains (plo) which here typically look less lobate than in other areas of the planet. Close to them in age are smooth plains which are indeed smooth and represented by two varieties mentioned above. Lineated plains (pli) are densely fractured in a geometrically regular way. Plains with wrinkle ridges, being morphologically similar to those observed in other regions, here occupy unusually small areas. Shield (psh) plains here are also not abundant. Locally they show wrinkle ridging. Fractured and ridged plains (pfr), which form in other regions, the so called ridge belts, are observed as isolated areas of clusters of ridged plains surrounded by other units. Densely fractured plains (pdf) are present in relatively small areas in association with coronae and corona-like features. Tessera terrain (tt) is dissected by structures oriented in two or more directions. Structures are so densely packed that the morphology (and thus nature) of the precursor terrain is not known. Structural units include tessera transitional terrain (ttt), fracture belts (fb) and rifted terrain (rt). Tessera transitional terrain was first identified and mapped by [4] as areas of fractured and ridged plains (pfr) and densely fractured plains (pdf) deformed by transverse faults that made it formally resemble tessera terrain (tt). The obvious difference between units tt and ttt is the recognizable morphology of precursor terrain of unit ttt. Fracture belts are probably ancient rift zones [3]. Rifted terrain (rt), as in other regions of Venus, is so saturated with faults that according to the recommendation of [1, 5] it should be mapped as a structural unit.

Basilevsky, A. T.↗