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DOE OSTI2024

helioLuna: Prospect for cislunar spacecraft and near-earth asteroid detection using heliostat fields at night

We experimentally and computationally investigate a proposed frequency-domain method for detecting and tracking cislunar spacecraft and near-earth asteroids using heliostat fields at night. Unlike imaging, which detects spacecraft and asteroids by their streak in sidereally-fixed long-exposure photographs, our proposed detection method oscillates the orientation of heliostats concentrating light from the stellar field and measures the light’s photocurrent power spectrum at sub-milliHertz resolution. If heliostat oscillation traces out an ellipse fixed in the galactic coordinate system, spacecraft or asteroids produce a peak in photocurrent power spectrum at a frequency slightly shifted from the starlight peak. The frequency shift is on the scale of milliHertz and proportional to apparent angular rate relative to sidereal. Relative phase corresponds to relative angular position, enabling tracking. A potential advantage of this frequency-domain method over imaging is that detectivity improves with apparent angular rate and number of heliostats. Since heliostats are inexpensive compared to an astronomical observatory and otherwise unused at night, the proposed method may cost-effectively augment observatory systems such as NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prospect for cislunar spacecraft and near-earth asteroid detection using heliostat fields at night

presentation to accompany recently approved manuscript for SPIE Paper 13149-66 under IR tracking number 1752319

Sandusky, John↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prospect for cislunar spacecraft and near-earth asteroid detection using heliostat fields at night

this manuscript for SPIE Optics + Photonics 2024 is based on SAND2023-13117R previously published as unclassified unlimited release

Sandusky, John↗

DOE OSTI2026

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-speed Boulders and the Debris Field in DART Ejecta

On 2022 September 26 the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft collided with Dimorphos, the moon of the near-Earth asteroid 65803 Didymos, in a full-scale demonstration of a kinetic impactor concept. The companion Light Italian Cubesat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube) spacecraft documented the aftermath, capturing images of the expansion and evolution of the ejecta from 29 to 243 s after the impact. We present results from our analyses of these observations, including an improved reduction of the data and new absolute calibration, an updated LICIACube trajectory, and a detailed description of the events and phenomena that were recorded throughout the flyby. One notable aspect of the ejecta was the existence of clusters of boulders, up to 3.6 m in radius, that were ejected at speeds of up to 52 m s −1 . Our analysis of the spatial distribution of 104 of these boulders suggests that they are likely the remnants of larger boulders shattered by the DART spacecraft in the first stages of the impact. The amount of momentum contained in these boulders is more than 3 times that of the DART spacecraft, and it is directed primarily to the south, almost perpendicular to the DART trajectory. Recoil of Dimorphos from the ejection of these boulders has the potential to change its orbital plane by up to a degree and to impart a non-principal-axis component to its rotation state. Damping timescales for these phenomena are such that the Hera spacecraft, arriving at the system in 2026, should be able to measure these effects.

asteroid dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2026

An Automated Probabilistic Asteroid Prediscovery Pipeline

We present an automated and probabilistic method to make prediscovery detections of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in archival survey images, with the goal of reducing orbital uncertainty immediately after discovery. We refit the Minor Planet Center's astrometry and propagate the full six-parameter covariance to survey epochs to define search regions. We build low-threshold source catalogs for viable images and evaluate every detected source in a search region as a candidate prediscovery. We eliminate false positives by refitting a new orbit to each candidate and probabilistically linking detections across images using a likelihood ratio. Applied to the Zwicky Transient Facility's (ZTF) imaging, we identify approximately 3000 recently discovered NEAs with prediscovery potential, including a doubling of the observational arc for about 500. We use archival ZTF imaging to make prediscovery detections of the potentially hazardous asteroid 2021 DG1, extending its arc by 2.5 yr and reducing future apparition sky plane uncertainty from many degrees to arcseconds. We also recover 2025 FU24 nearly 7 yr before its first known observation, when its sky plane uncertainty covers hundreds of square degrees across thousands of ZTF images. The method is survey agnostic and scalable, enabling rapid orbit refinement for new discoveries from Rubin, NEO Surveyor, and NEOMIR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Planetary Defense System For Responsive Space Missions

As King et al succinctly write, “Collision between the Earth and small objects in the solar system are known to occur regularly, and can result in extinction-level events at their most energetic or more commonly widespread loss of life or economic destruction even for relatively low-energy impacts.” Currently, the JPL Sentry System and the NASA NEO Surveyor mission track, identify, and monitor potential asteroid threats. The JPL Sentry System4 is an automated collision monitoring system which scans the current asteroid catalog for potential impact trajectories with Earth. A 2017 study led by P. Tricarico titled “The near-Earth asteroid population from two decades of observations” analyzes the combined observations of nine leading asteroid surveys. The NASA NEO Surveyor mission seeks to identify 90% of near-Earth objects (NEO) with diameters greater than 140 meters (460 feet) within 10 years. The NEO Surveyor combines data from two infrared imaging detectors to measure NEO size, composition, shape, rotational state, and orbits. Recently, the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully altered the orbit of asteroid moon Dimorphos in 2022. This demonstrated that orbit alteration is possible. Thus, collisions between the Earth and asteroids are both likely and demonstrate potential for great harm. There is ongoing work to identify, catalog, and track potential threats. However, when a threat is identified there is not yet a system in place to target the threatening asteroid and defend the planet from potentially existential threats. Building on the DART Mission, we explore a planetary defense system to mitigate asteroid threats.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physical properties of asteroid Dimorphos as derived from the DART impact

On 26 September 2022, NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully impacted Dimorphos, the natural satellite of the binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. Numerical simulations of the impact provide a means to find the surface material properties and structures of the target that are consistent with the observed momentum deflection efficiency, ejecta cone geometry and ejected mass. Our simulation that best matches the observations indicates that Dimorphos is weak, with a cohesive strength of less than a few pascals, like asteroids (162173) Ryugu and (101955) Bennu. We find that the bulk density of Dimorphos ρ B is lower than ~2,400 kg m – 3 and that it has a low volume fraction of boulders (≲40 vol%) on the surface and in the shallow subsurface, which are consistent with data measured by the DART experiment. These findings suggest that Dimorphos is a rubble pile that might have formed through rotational mass shedding and reaccumulation from Didymos. Our simulations indicate that the DART impact caused global deformation and resurfacing of Dimorphos. ESA’s upcoming Hera mission may find a reshaped asteroid rather than a well-defined crater.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Achievement of the Planetary Defense Investigations of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was the first to demonstrate asteroid deflection, and the mission's Level 1 requirements guided its planetary defense investigations. Here, we summarize DART's achievement of those requirements. On 2022 September 26, the DART spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the secondary member of the Didymos near-Earth asteroid binary system, demonstrating an autonomously navigated kinetic impact into an asteroid with limited prior knowledge for planetary defense. Months of subsequent Earth-based observations showed that the binary orbital period was changed by –33.24 minutes, with two independent analysis methods each reporting a 1 σ uncertainty of 1.4 s. Dynamical models determined that the momentum enhancement factor, β , resulting from DART's kinetic impact test is between 2.4 and 4.9, depending on the mass of Dimorphos, which remains the largest source of uncertainty. Over five dozen telescopes across the globe and in space, along with the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids, have contributed to DART's investigations. These combined investigations have addressed topics related to the ejecta, dynamics, impact event, and properties of both asteroids in the binary system. A year following DART's successful impact into Dimorphos, the mission has achieved its planetary defense requirements, although work to further understand DART's kinetic impact test and the Didymos system will continue. In particular, ESA's Hera mission is planned to perform extensive measurements in 2027 during its rendezvous with the Didymos–Dimorphos system, building on DART to advance our knowledge and continue the ongoing international collaboration for planetary defense.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule re-entry: A coordinated seismo-acoustic observational campaign for the study of meteor phenomena

Objects entering Earth’s atmosphere at hypersonic velocities may generate powerful acoustic waves. Depending on atmospheric conditions and acoustic propagation paths, they may be captured using ground or balloon-borne microbarometers and microphones. Impacts into the Earth’s atmosphere by asteroids in a meter-size range are sporadic and unannounced, and thus, well-documented scientific observations of asteroids are rare and generally happen by chance. Arriving from interplanetary space at hypervelocity, spacecraft are considered analogues for low velocity meteoroids and asteroids impacting the Earth’s atmosphere, and as such provide unprecedented and unique opportunity to carry out planned observational campaigns and perform detailed studies of meteor phenomena. However, since the end of the Apollo era, only four instances of a hypersonic re-entry of an artificial body from interplanetary space with an incident speed of 11-12 km/s have been observed and studied. These were the Sample Return Capsules (SRCs) that brought physical samples of extraterrestrial material back to Earth (Genesis, Stardust, Hayabusa 1, Hayabusa 2). These re-entries were also detected by infrasound and/or seismic sensors. The next opportunity to observe an artificial meteor will be on 24 September 2023 with the re-entry of NASA’s OSIRIS-REx SRC that will bring samples of the carbonaceous near-Earth asteroid Bennu. The re-entry consists of several flight phases, including hypersonic and supersonic, providing a unique opportunity to observe these by infrasound and seismic sensors. We will discuss observational campaign efforts aimed to capture geophysical signals generated by the OSIRIS-REx SRC re-entry. This campaign utilizes an unparalleled number of instruments, both ground and airborne, strategically positioned in the immediate and extended region around the projected re-entry trajectory to maximize the scientific output.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lightcurves, Rotation Periods, and Colors for Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s First Asteroid Discoveries

We present lightcurves, rotation periods, and colors for the first asteroid discoveries made with the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. These are the first science results derived from the 2103 asteroid discoveries released as part of the Rubin First Look (RFL) media event on 2025 June 23, in which the first LSST Camera commissioning images were released. The ∼340,000 observations in which the discoveries were made span nine nights between 2025 April 21 and May 5. With a limiting single-epoch 5σ depth of ∼23–25 mag and dense temporal sampling under an irregular, commissioning-driven cadence, the RFL observations provide an ideal test bed for determination of rotation periods, including sensitivity to rapid rotation. We model lightcurves and derive rotation periods and colors for the ∼2000 objects. We find 75 main-belt asteroids (MBAs) and one near-Earth object (NEO) with reliable rotation periods spanning 0.031–21.3 hr and a photometric precision in the range of 0.05–0.15 mag. We find 19 superfast rotators with periods shorter than the 2.2 hr spin barrier. Rubin-discovered MBA 2025 MN 45 is the fastest-rotating d > 0.5 km known asteroid with a rotation period of 1.9 minutes; along with NEO 2025 MJ 71 (1.9 minutes) and Rubin-discovered MBAs 2025 MK 41 (3.8 minutes), 2025 MV 71 (13 minutes), and 2025 MG 56 (16 minutes), these five super- to ultrafast rotators join a couple of NEOs as the fastest-spinning subkilometer asteroids known. As this study demonstrates, even in early commissioning, Rubin is successfully probing a previously sparsely sampled region of the subkilometer size−spin rate regime for MBAs.

Greenstreet, Sarah [NSF National Optical-Infrared ↗

DOE OSTI2023

X-Ray Energy Deposition Model for Simulating Asteroid Response to a Nuclear Planetary Defense Mitigation Mission

Abstract In the event of a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact, with sufficient warning time, deploying a nuclear device remains a powerful option for planetary defense if a kinetic impactor or other means of deflection proves insufficient. Predicting the effectiveness of a potential nuclear deflection or disruption mission depends on accurate multiphysics simulations of the device's X-ray energy deposition into the asteroid and the resulting material ablation. The relevant physics in these simulations span many orders of magnitude, require a variety of different complex physics packages, and are computationally expensive. Having an efficient and accurate way of modeling this system is necessary for exploring a mission's sensitivity to the asteroid's range of physical properties. To expedite future simulations, we present a completed X-ray energy deposition model developed using the radiation-hydrodynamics code Kull that can be used to initiate a nuclear mitigation mission calculation. The model spans a wide variety of possible mission initial conditions: four different asteroid-like materials at a range of porosities, two different source spectra, and a broad range of radiation fluences, source durations, and angles of incidence. Using blowoff momentum as the primary metric, the model-initiated simulation results match the full radiation-hydrodynamics results to within 10%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

BLADE: An Automated Framework for Classifying Light Curves from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Fireball Database

Fireballs (bolides) are high-energy luminous phenomena produced when meteoroids and small asteroids enter Earth’s atmosphere at hypersonic speeds, often resulting in fragmentation or complete disintegration accompanied by significant energy release. The resulting bolide light curves capture temporal brightness variations as these objects traverse increasingly dense atmospheric layers, providing essential information on meteoroid entry dynamics, fragmentation behavior, and atmospheric energy deposition processes. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies’ (CNEOS) continuously expanding fireball database offers a globally comprehensive archive of bolide events, including light curves and associated metadata. Events associated with infrasound detections allow direct correlations between acoustic signatures and light curve features, therefore enabling detailed analyses of fragmentation dynamics and energy deposition. Here, we introduce Bolide Light-curve Analysis and Discrimination Explorer (BLADE), a robust and high-fidelity framework specifically designed to analyze bolide light curves for objects detected from space. BLADE incorporates a processing pipeline integrating Savitzky–Golay filtering, prominence-based peak detection, and gradient analysis, enabling systematic identification and classification of fragmentation events and their associated energy release characteristics. Preliminary results demonstrate that BLADE reliably distinguishes distinct bolide behaviors, providing an objective, scalable methodology for characterization and analysis of large bolide light curve data sets. This foundational work establishes a novel pathway for advanced bolide research, with promising applications in planetary defense and global atmospheric monitoring. Future research should adopt an integrative approach combining CNEOS optical data with complementary infrasound measurements, further clarifying relationships between bolide energy deposition and acoustic signatures, thus refining our understanding of meteoroid and asteroid atmospheric entry processes.

Asteroids↗

DOE OSTI2025

Survey-wide asteroid discovery with a high-performance computing enabled non-linear digital tracking framework

Modern astronomical surveys detect asteroids by linking together their appearances across multiple images taken over time. This approach faces limitations in detecting faint asteroids and handling the computational complexity of trajectory linking. Here, we present a novel method that adapts “digital tracking” – traditionally used for short-term linear asteroid motion across images – to work with large-scale synoptic surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin/LSST). Our approach combines hundreds of sparse observations of individual asteroids across their non-linear orbital paths to enhance detection sensitivity by several magnitudes. To address the computational challenges of processing massive data sets and dense orbital phase spaces, we developed a specialized high-performance computing architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments that take advantage of the extensive computational resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This work enables the detection of significantly fainter asteroids in existing and future survey data, potentially increasing the observable asteroid population by orders of magnitude across different orbital families, from near-Earth objects (NEOs) to Kuiper belt objects (KBOs).

Asteroid discovery↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Utility of Infrasound in Global Monitoring of Extraterrestrial Impacts: A Case Study of the 2008 July 23 Tajikistan Bolide

Abstract Among the various observational techniques used for the detection of large bolides on a global scale is a low-frequency sound known as infrasound. Infrasound, which is also one of the four sensing modalities used by the International Monitoring System, offers continuous global monitoring and can be leveraged for planetary defense. Infrasonic records can provide an additional dimension for event characterization and a distinct perspective that might not be available through any other observational method. This paper describes the infrasonic detection and characterization of the bolide that disintegrated over Tajikistan on 2008 July 23. This event was detected by two infrasound stations at distances of 1530 and 2130 km. Propagation paths to one of the stations were not predicted by the model, despite being clearly detected. The presence of the signal is attributed to the acoustic energy being trapped in a weak but leaky stratospheric AtmoSOFAR channel. The infrasound signal analysis indicates that the shock originated at the point of the main breakup at an altitude of 35 km. The primary mode of the shock production of the signal detected at the two stations was a spherical blast resulting from the main gross fragmentation episode. The energy estimate, based on the signal period, is 0.17–0.51 kt of TNT equivalent, suggesting a mass of 6.6–23.5 tons. The corresponding object radius, assuming the chondritic origin, was 0.78–1.18 m.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗