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DOE OSTI2026

E3SMv3 ‘Nephele’ Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Value-Added Product for ENA, SGP, NSA, and Global Means

Processed output from the E3SMv3 Nephele perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE). This product contains global means of present-day (using 2010 aerosol forcings) and preindustrial (using 1850 aerosol forcings) monthly and daily global-mean quantities, as well as hourly mean quantities at the E3SMv3 model grid cell closest to the ENA, SGP, and NSA ARM sites. In this PPE, the E3SMv3 model was run for 27 months in an atmosphere-only configuration with free tropospheric winds nudged to reanalysis. Each ensemble member represents a unique combination of 25 model parameter values (in the microphysics, convective microphysics, and aerosol schemes) that were perturbed randomly and simultaneously. The E3SMv3 default configuration is included as member 0. See https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174907165.57104591/v1 (in review) for more information on the Nephele PPE and the perturbed parameters.

Model atmospheric temperature↗
DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the Nephele Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in E3SMv3

Aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) are the leading source of uncertainty in inferring climate sensitivity from the historical record. Earth system models (ESMs) struggle to represent aci because the processes responsible for these phenomena occur at much finer time and space scales than can be resolved by any ESM. Observational constraints provide key benchmarks to test ESMs, but cannot be used alone to fully understand aci processes except in very specific cases where causality is controlled; some degree of modeling is required to infer aci and estimate radiative forcing. Here, we generate and characterize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) in version 3 of the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SMv3). We perturb 25 parameters that govern aci processes over 250 members and integrate the model over present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. We find that the process representation in E3SMv3 is flexible and can generate global-mean effective radiative forcings due to aci (ERFaci) ranging from −3.0 to +0.9 W m −2 . The positive ERFaci values simulated by a portion of the PPE are implausible and result from parameter combinations that produce unrealistic top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. While global-mean cloud droplet number concentration always increases in response to anthropogenic aerosol, cloud liquid water path can both increase and decrease, suggesting that precipitation suppression is not the only aerosol-cloud adjustment represented by E3SMv3. Analysis of which processes control liquid cloud adjustment in the PPE points toward stratiform precipitation processes and aerosol activation, which is consistent with many previous ESMs, as well as the new two-moment convective cloud microphysics in E3SMv3.

Nugent, Jacqueline M. [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, ↗