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Remediating Non-Positive Definite State Covariances for Collision Probability Estimation

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team estimates the probability of collision (Pc) for a set of Earth-orbiting satellites. The Pc estimation software processes satellite position+velocity states and their associated covariance matri-ces. On occasion, the software encounters non-positive definite (NPD) state co-variances, which can adversely affect or prevent the Pc estimation process. Inter-polation inaccuracies appear to account for the majority of such covariances, alt-hough other mechanisms contribute also. This paper investigates the origin of NPD state covariance matrices, three different methods for remediating these co-variances when and if necessary, and the associated effects on the Pc estimation process.

Hall, Doyle T.↗

A 2-D Interface Element for Coupled Analysis of Independently Modeled 3-D Finite Element Subdomains

Over the past few years, the development of the interface technology has provided an analysis framework for embedding detailed finite element models within finite element models which are less refined. This development has enabled the use of cascading substructure domains without the constraint of coincident nodes along substructure boundaries. The approach used for the interface element is based on an alternate variational principle often used in deriving hybrid finite elements. The resulting system of equations exhibits a high degree of sparsity but gives rise to a non-positive definite system which causes difficulties with many of the equation solvers in general-purpose finite element codes. Hence the global system of equations is generally solved using, a decomposition procedure with pivoting. The research reported to-date for the interface element includes the one-dimensional line interface element and two-dimensional surface interface element. Several large-scale simulations, including geometrically nonlinear problems, have been reported using the one-dimensional interface element technology; however, only limited applications are available for the surface interface element. In the applications reported to-date, the geometry of the interfaced domains exactly match each other even though the spatial discretization within each domain may be different. As such, the spatial modeling of each domain, the interface elements and the assembled system is still laborious. The present research is focused on developing a rapid modeling procedure based on a parametric interface representation of independently defined subdomains which are also independently discretized.

Kandil, Osama A.↗

Three CA-Related Covariance Issues and Their Solutions

This presentation addresses three issues that arise in the use of DoD-produced satellite state estimate covariances in the conjunction assessment process: the realism of the provided covariances, how to address correlated error between two satellites' covariance matrices, and how to proceed when a furnished covariance is non-positive-definite. To address the first, DoD has implemented a set of two "consider parameters" with which to alter/expand the covariance to account for atmospheric density forecast error and satellite frontal area uncertainty, the two largest sources of unmodeled position prediction error for LEO orbits; these values are governed by a satellite's orbital parameters and ballistic coefficient histories, as well as the current and predicted space weather situation. This approach substantially improves the realism of the covariance by accounting for expected prediction errors that are not part of the fit process that generates the covariance. The second issue of covariance correlation is a complicated one, but the main shared error source—global atmospheric density error that is common to both satellites can be characterized and, through sensitivity vectors, quantified at the conjunction's time of closest approach and removed from the joint covariance, which is used in the CA probability of collision (Pc) calculation. Finally, while according to the orbit determination theory a non-positive-definite (NPD) covariance is not possible, numerical truncation and covariance interpolation can conspire to produce NPD results, which render the covariance unusable for certain CA risk assessment calculations, such as Monte Carlo Pc determination. Three similar techniques are profiled and the simplest of them recommended as a reasonable remediation technique when NPD covariances are encountered by CA practitioners.

Dynamic Consider Parameter↗