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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Implementing Superresolution of Nonstationary Tides with Wavelets: An Introduction to CWT_Multi

Abstract Tides are often nonstationary due to nonastronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a trade-off between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short analysis windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a MATLAB code that 1) uses CWT linearity (via the “response coefficient method”) to implement superresolution, i.e., resolving tidal constituents beyond the Rayleigh criterion; 2) provides a Munk–Hasselmann constituent selection criterion appropriate for superresolution; and 3) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time scales of days, and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s), and reconstruction(s); confidence limits; and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K 1 , S 1 , and P 1 ) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power peaking (with a 24-h period, like S 1 ) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify the impacts of high flows and a salt barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to nonstationary data. Significance Statement Ocean tides, especially in coastal and estuarine systems, are often nonstationary, in the sense that the mean and standard deviation of tidal properties vary over time, usually in response to some nontidal process. We introduce here a MATLAB code, CWT_Multi, that uses wavelet transforms to resolve both tidal species and constituents on time scales from a few days to months. Our code accommodates multiple scalar time series and has typical tidal analysis features like constituent selection and inference, plus two forms of uncertainty analyses. It is flexible, allowing the user to adapt analysis properties to diverse datasets. CWT_Multi is applicable to many problems involving time-variable tides, including sea level rise, compound flooding, sediment transport, and wetland habitat analyses. Application to vector data is a straightforward extension, but further development of our uncertainty analysis is merited. Because nonstationary tidal analysis is rapidly advancing, we also define the features of a “well-formed” analysis code.

Lobo, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable computations for nonstationary Gaussian processes

Nonstationary Gaussian process models can capture complex spatially varying dependence structures in spatial datasets. However, the large number of observations in modern datasets makes fitting such models computationally intractable with conventional dense linear algebra. In addition, derivative-free or even first-order optimization methods can be very slow to converge when estimating many spatially varying parameters. In this paper, we present a computational framework which couples an algebraic block diagonal plus low-rank covariance matrix approximation with stochastic trace estimation to facilitate the efficient use of second-order solvers for maximum likelihood estimation of Gaussian process models with many parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods by simultaneously fitting 192 parameters in the popular nonstationary model of Paciorek and Schervish using 107,600 sea surface temperature anomaly measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systematic comparison of local approaches for isotopically nonstationary metabolic flux analysis

Quantification of reaction fluxes of metabolic networks can help us understand how the integration of different metabolic pathways determine cellular functions. Yet, intracellular fluxes cannot be measured directly but are estimated with metabolic flux analysis (MFA) that relies on the patterns of isotope labeling of metabolites in the network. For metabolic systems, typical for plants, where all potentially labeled atoms effectively have only one source atom pool, only isotopically nonstationary MFA can provide information about intracellular fluxes. There are several global approaches that implement MFA for an entire metabolic network and estimate, at once, a steady-state flux distribution for all reactions with identifiable fluxes in the network. In contrast, local approaches deal with estimation of fluxes for a subset of reactions, with smaller data demand for flux estimation. Here we present a systematic comparative review and benchmarking of the existing local approaches for isotopically nonstationary MFA. The comparison is conducted with respect to the required data and underlying computational problems solved on a synthetic network example. Furthermore, we benchmark the performance of these approaches in estimating fluxes for a subset of reactions using data obtained from the simulation of nitrogen fluxes in the Arabidopsis thaliana core metabolism. The findings pinpoint practical aspects that need to be considered when applying local approaches for flux estimation in large-scale plant metabolic networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compactly‐Supported Nonstationary Kernels for Computing Exact Gaussian Processes on Big Data

The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used method for analyzing large-scale data sets, including spatio-temporal measurements of nonlinear processes that are now commonplace in the environmental sciences. Traditional implementations of GPs involve stationary kernels (also termed covariance functions) that limit their flexibility, and exact methods for inference that prevent application to data sets with more than about 10,000 points. Modern approaches to address stationarity assumptions generally fail to accommodate large data sets, while all attempts to address scalability focus on approximating the Gaussian likelihood, which can involve subjectivity and lead to inaccuracies. In this work, we explicitly derive an alternative kernel that can discover and encode both sparsity and nonstationarity. We embed the kernel within a fully Bayesian GP model and leverage high-performance computing resources to enable the analysis of massive data sets. We demonstrate the favorable performance of our novel kernel relative to existing exact and approximate GP methods across a variety of synthetic data examples. Furthermore, we conduct space–time prediction based on more than 1 million measurements of daily maximum temperature and verify that our results outperform state-of-the-art methods in the Earth sciences. More broadly, having access to exact GPs that use ultra-scalable, sparsity-discovering, nonstationary kernels allows GP methods to truly compete with a wide variety of machine learning methods.

Gaussian processes↗
DOE OSTI2024

Isotopically nonstationary metabolic flux analysis of plants: recent progress and future opportunities

Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is a valuable tool for quantifying cellular phenotypes and to guide plant metabolic engineering. By introducing stable isotopic tracers and employing mathematical models, MFA can quantify the rates of metabolic reactions through biochemical pathways. Recent applications of isotopically nonstationary MFA (INST–MFA) to plants have elucidated nonintuitive metabolism in leaves under optimal and stress conditions, described coupled fluxes for fast–growing algae, and produced a synergistic multi–organ flux map that is a first in MFA for any biological system. Finally, these insights could not be elucidated through other approaches and show the potential of INST–MFA to correct an oversimplified understanding of plant metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with vision transformers

Spatial nonstationarity, the location variance of features’ statistical distributions, is ubiquitous in many natural settings. For example, in geological reservoirs rock matrix porosity varies vertically due to geomechanical compaction trends, in mineral deposits grades vary due to sedimentation and concentration processes, in hydrology rainfall varies due to the atmosphere and topography interactions, and in metallurgy crystalline structures vary due to differential cooling. Conventional geostatistical modeling workflows rely on the assumption of stationarity to be able to model spatial features for geostatistical inference. Nevertheless, this is often not a realistic assumption when dealing with nonstationary spatial data and this has motivated a variety of nonstationary spatial modeling workflows such as trend and residual decomposition, cosimulation with secondary features, and spatial segmentation and independent modeling over stationary subdomains. The advent of deep learning technologies has enabled new workflows for modeling spatial relationships. However, there is a paucity of demonstrated best practice and general guidance on mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with deep learning in the geospatial context. We demonstrate the impact of two common types of geostatistical spatial nonstationarity on deep learning model prediction performance and propose the mitigation of such impacts using self-attention (vision transformer) models. We demonstrate the utility of vision transformers for the mitigation of nonstationarity with relative errors as low as 10%, exceeding the performance of alternative deep learning methods such as convolutional neural networks. We establish best practice by demonstrating the ability of self-attention networks for modeling large-scale spatial relationships in the presence of commonly observed geospatial nonstationarity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance operator estimation via adaptive thresholding

This paper studies sparse covariance operator estimation for nonstationary processes with sharply varying marginal variance and small correlation lengthscale. We introduce a covariance operator estimator that adaptively thresholds the sample covariance function using an estimate of the variance component. Building on recent results from empirical process theory, we derive an operator norm bound on the estimation error in terms of the sparsity level of the covariance and the expected supremum of a normalized process. Furthermore, our theory and numerical simulations demonstrate the advantage of adaptive threshold estimators over universal threshold and sample covariance estimators in nonstationary settings.

Al-Ghattas, Omar [University of Chicago, IL (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time irreversibility as an indicator of approaching tipping points in Earth subsystems

With shifting environmental trends, many Earth system elements may be poised to undergo critical transitions or ‘tipping’. Reliable anticipation of these tipping elements is vital to inform policy decisions. Many of the current methods for tipping point detection are based on loss of resilience or ‘critical slowdown’ of the system as it approaches a tipping point. However, these methods are prone to false alarms; the detected slowdown may be an artifact of nonstationary noise unrelated to tipping behavior. Here, we explore the efficacy of early warning signs based on a nonequilibrium thermodynamics framework. The model-free detection method relies on the increased intrinsic time-irreversibility due to detailed balance breaking, preceding the onset of tipping or instabilities. We demonstrate that these EWSs are effective for tipping point detection and robust against false alarms due to nonstationary noise, using idealized models for two key elements of the Earth system that are prone to tipping: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Arctic sea-ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement-driven large-eddy simulations of a diurnal cycle during a wake-steering field campaign

Abstract. High-fidelity flow modeling with data assimilation enables accurate representation of the wind farm operating environment under realistic, nonstationary atmospheric conditions. Capturing the temporal evolution of the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer is critical to understanding the behavior of wind turbines under operating conditions with simultaneously varying inflow and control inputs. This paper has three parts: the identification of a case study during a field evaluation of wake steering; the development of a tailored mesoscale-to-microscale coupling strategy that resolved local flow conditions within a large-eddy simulation (LES), using observations that did not completely capture the wind and temperature fields throughout the simulation domain; and the application of this coupling strategy to validate high-fidelity aeroelastic predictions of turbine performance and wake interactions with and without wake steering. The case study spans 4.5 h after midnight local time, during which wake steering was toggled on and off five times, achieving yaw offset angles ranging from 0 to 17°. To resolve nonstationary nighttime conditions that exhibited shear instabilities, the turbulence field was evolved starting from the diurnal cycle of the previous day. These background conditions were then used to drive wind farm simulations with two different models: an LES with actuator disk turbines and a steady-state engineering wake model. Subsequent analysis identified two representative periods during which the up- and downstream turbines were most nearly aligned with the mean wind direction and had observed yaw offsets of 0 and 15°. Both periods corresponded to partial waking on the downstream turbine, which had errors in the LES-predicted power of 4 % and 6 %, with and without wake steering. The LES was also able to capture conditions during which an upstream turbine wake induced a speedup at a downstream turbine and increased power production by up to 13 %.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches

Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.

Weix, Derek↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression (MGTWR): exploring the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of EV market adoption

As an innovative vehicle technology, electric vehicles are experiencing growing sales and have made significant inroads into the traditional automotive market in the United States and around the world. However, EV adoption rates vary significantly across space and over time, influenced by a complex interplay of socio-economic and infrastructural factors alongside federal and state policies. Here, this paper presents a comprehensive spatial–temporal investigation of EV market adoption within one city in the US, that of Chicago, utilizing Multiscale Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (MGTWR) alongside Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). The aim is to unravel the spatial and temporal dynamics affecting EV adoption and to explore how the influence of various determinants of EV adoption, such as demographic factors and economic conditions, vary spatially. Moreover, by utilizing MGTWR, we provide insights into the evolution of these relationships over time, offering a predictive outlook on future EV market growth. Our findings, with an 86.6% prediction accuracy for EV market adoption, tailored policy measures to support accelerated EV adoption. Methodologically, this work advances MGWR frameworks by integrating temporal dynamics to examine nonstationary processes in spatially disaggregated contexts. These findings offer evidence–based guidance for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders in the automotive industry, supporting the transition toward a more sustainable and efficient transportation system.

EV Market Adoption↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Inference of Liquid Structure from Scattering Data

We present a nonparametric Bayesian framework to infer radial distribution functions from experimental scattering measurements with uncertainty quantification using nonstationary Gaussian processes. The Gaussian process prior mean and kernel functions are designed to mitigate well-known numerical challenges with the Fourier transform, including discrete measurement binning and detector windowing, while encoding fundamental yet minimal physical knowledge of the liquid structure. We demonstrate uncertainty propagation of the Gaussian process posterior to unmeasured quantities of interest. Experimental radial distribution functions of liquid argon and water with uncertainty quantification are provided as both a proof of principle for the method and a benchmark for molecular models.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2023

Many-Exciton Quantum Dynamics in a Ruddlesden–Popper Tin Iodide

We present a study on the many-body exciton interactions in a Ruddlesden–Popper tin halide, namely, (PEA) 2 SnI 4 (PEA = phenylethylammonium), using coherent two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy. The optical dephasing times of the third-order polarization observed in these systems are determined by exciton many-body interactions and lattice fluctuations. We investigate the excitation-induced dephasing (EID) and observe a significant reduction of the dephasing time with increasing excitation density as compared to its lead counterpart (PEA) 2 PbI 4 , which we have previously reported in a separate publication [J. Chem. Phys. 2020, 153, 164706]. Surprisingly, we find that the EID interaction parameter is four orders of magnitude higher in (PEA) 2 SnI 4 than that in (PEA) 2 PbI 4 . This increase in the EID rate may be due to exciton localization arising from a more statically disordered lattice in the tin derivative. This is supported by the observation of multiple closely spaced exciton states and the broadening of the linewidth with increasing population time (spectral diffusion), which suggests a static disordered structure relative to the highly dynamic lead-halide. Additionally, we find that the exciton nonlinear coherent lineshape shows evidence of a biexcitonic state with low binding energy (<10 meV) not observed in the lead system. We model the lineshapes based on a stochastic scattering theory that accounts for the interaction with a nonstationary population of dark background excitations. Our study provides evidence of differences in the exciton quantum dynamics between tin- and lead-based Ruddlesden–Popper metal halides (RPMHs) and links them to the exciton–exciton interaction strength and the static disorder aspect of the crystalline structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Narrow Bipolar Events Using Mode Decomposition Methods

Multi-resolution analysis methods can reveal the underlying physical dynamics of nonstationary signals, such as those from lightning. In this paper we demonstrate the application of two multi-resolution analysis methods: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) in a comparative way in the analysis of electric field change waveforms from lightning. EEMD and VMD decompose signals into a set of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). The IMFs can be combined using distance and divergence metrics to obtain noise reduction or to obtain new waveforms that isolate the physical processes of interest while removing irrelevant components of the original signal. We apply the EEMD and VMD methods to the observations of three close Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs) that were reported by Rison et al. The ΔE observations reveal the occurrence of complex oscillatory processes after the main NBE sferic. We show that both EEMD and VMD are able to isolate the oscillations from the main NBE, with VMD being more effective of the two methods since it requires the least user supervision. The oscillations are found to begin at the end of the NBEs' downward fast positive breakdown and appear to be produced by a half-wavelength standing wave within a weakly-conducting resonant ionization cavity left behind in the wake of the streamer-based NBE event. In conclusion, additional analysis shows that one of the NBEs was likely initiated by an energetic cosmic ray shower, and also corrects a misinterpretation in the literature that fast breakdown is an artifact of NBE-like events in interferometer observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

Abstract Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends.

Geology↗