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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

A Comprehensive List of Geothermal Reservoir Properties for the Development of Geothermal Occurrence Models

Despite the fact that geothermal occurrence models (GOMs) are essential components of early stage exploration, few attempts have been made to compile comprehensive lists of data on world - wide geothermal resources in order to develop such models. The properties of these geothermal resources - including the structural setting, geothermal features, tectonic setting, temperature of the reservoir, and host/cap rock characteristics - are being catalogued on OpenEI, a semantic wiki platform for crowdsourced knowledge-sharing. This additional in - formation added to the wiki platform will provide the public with access to an enormous amount of geothermal information, the goal of which is to stimulate the development of GOMs and aid in exploration. This paper reviews the significance of the project, the methodologies involved in the classification of resources, and the intended future work.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.

02 PETROLEUM↗
NASA NTRS2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Effortstoward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes inthese large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complexerror behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted usingmodern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previousstudies to apply an interpretable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also movetoward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoostclassification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to explore the errors inthe prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA GEOS model, a widely used Earth SystemModel. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error andindicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics ofthe land surface.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelling multiple occurrences of activities during a day: An extension of the MDCEV model

The increased interest in time use among transport researchers has led to a search for flexible but tractable models of time use, such as Bhat's Multiple Discrete Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) model. MDCEV formulations typically model aggregate time allocation into different activity types during a given period, such as the amount of time spent working and shopping in a day. While these applications provide valuable insights into activity participation, they ignore disaggregate activity-episodes, that is the fact that people might split their total time spent working in multiple separate blocks, with breaks or other activities in between. Insights into this splitting into episodes are necessary for predicting trips and understanding time use satiation. We propose a modified MDCEV model where an activity-episode, rather than an activity type, is the basic choice alternative, using a modified utility function to capture the reduced likelihood of individuals performing a very large number of episodes of the same activity. Results from two large revealed preference datasets exhibit equivalent forecast accuracy between the traditional and proposed approach at an aggregate level, but the latter also provides insights on the number and duration of activity-episodes with significant accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Abstract Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Efforts toward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes in these large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complex error behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted using modern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previous studies to apply an explainable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also move toward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoost classification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis to explore the errors in the prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, a widely used Earth System Model. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error and indicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics of the land surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Using Geothermal Play Types as an Analogue for Estimating Potential Resource Size

Blind geothermal systems are becoming increasingly common as more geothermal fields are developed. Geothermal development is known to have high risk in the early stages of a project development because reservoir characteristics are relatively unknown until wells are drilled. Play types (or occurrence models) categorize potential geothermal fields into groups based on geologic characteristics. To aid in lowering exploration risk, these groups' reservoir characteristics can be used as analogues in new site exploration. The play type schemes used in this paper were Moeck and Beardsmore play types (Moeck et al. 2014) and Brophy occurrence models (Brophy et al. 2011). Operating geothermal fields throughout the world were classified based on their associated play type, and then reservoir characteristics data were catalogued. The distributions of these characteristics were plotted in histograms to develop probability density functions for each individual characteristic. The probability density functions can be used as input analogues in Monte Carlo estimations of resource potential for similar play types in early exploration phases. A spreadsheet model was created to estimate resource potential in undeveloped fields. The user can choose to input their own values for each reservoir characteristic or choose to use the probability distribution functions provided from the selected play type. This paper also addresses the United States Geological Survey's 1978 and 2008 assessment of geothermal resources by comparing their estimated values to reported values from post-site development. Information from the collected data was used in the comparison for thirty developed sites in the United States. No significant trends or suggestions for methodologies could be made by the comparison.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1987

On the next generation of reliability analysis tools

The current generation of reliability analysis tools concentrates on improving the efficiency of the description and solution of the fault-handling processes and providing a solution algorithm for the full system model. The tools have improved user efficiency in these areas to the extent that the problem of constructing the fault-occurrence model is now the major analysis bottleneck. For the next generation of reliability tools, it is proposed that techniques be developed to improve the efficiency of the fault-occurrence model generation and input. Further, the goal is to provide an environment permitting a user to provide a top-down design description of the system from which a Markov reliability model is automatically constructed. Thus, the user is relieved of the tedious and error-prone process of model construction, permitting an efficient exploration of the design space, and an independent validation of the system's operation is obtained. An additional benefit of automating the model construction process is the opportunity to reduce the specialized knowledge required. Hence, the user need only be an expert in the system he is analyzing; the expertise in reliability analysis techniques is supplied.

Babcock, Philip S., IV↗
DOE OSTI2014

Geothermal Exploration Case Studies on OpenEI (Presentation)

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) resource assessment (Williams et al., 2008) outlined a mean 30 GWe of undiscovered hydrothermal resource in the western United States. One goal of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technology Office (GTO) is to accelerate the development of this undiscovered resource. DOE has focused efforts on helping industry identify hidden geothermal resources to increase geothermal capacity in the near term. Increased exploration activity will produce more prospects, more discoveries, and more readily developable resources. Detailed exploration case studies akin to those found in oil and gas (e.g. Beaumont and Foster, 1990-1992) will give developers central location for information gives models for identifying new geothermal areas, and guide efficient exploration and development of these areas. To support this effort, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been working with GTO to develop a template for geothermal case studies on the Geothermal Gateway on OpenEI. In 2012, the template was developed and tested with two case studies: Raft River Geothermal Area (http://en.openei.org/wiki/Raft_River_Geothermal_Area) and Coso Geothermal Area (http://en.openei.org/wiki/Coso_Geothermal_Area). In 2013, ten additional case studies were completed, and Semantic MediaWiki features were developed to allow for more data and the direct citations of these data. These case studies are now in the process of external peer review. In 2014, NREL is working with universities and industry partners to populate additional case studies on OpenEI. The goal is to provide a large enough data set to start conducting analyses of exploration programs to identify correlations between successful exploration plans for areas with similar geologic occurrence models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Simulation of the 2003 Foss Barge - Point Wells Oil Spill: A Comparison between BLOSOM and GNOME Oil Spill Models

The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL’s) Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model (BLOSOM), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) are compared. Increasingly complex simulations are used to assess similarities and differences between the two models’ components. The simulations presented here are forced by ocean currents from a Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) implementation that has excellent skill in representing tidal motion, and with observed wind data that compensates for a coarse vertical ocean model resolution. The comprehensive comparison between GNOME and BLOSOM presented here, should aid modelers in interpreting their results. Beyond many similarities, aspects where both models are distinct are highlighted. Some suggestions for improvement are included, e.g., the inclusion of temporal interpolation of the forcing fields (BLOSOM) or the inclusion of a deflection angle option when parameterizing wind-driven processes (GNOME). Overall, GNOME and BLOSOM perform similarly, and are found to be complementary oil spill models. This paper also sheds light on what drove the historical Point Wells spill, and serves the additional purpose of being a learning resource for those interested in oil spill modeling. The increasingly complex approach used for the comparison is also used, in parallel, to illustrate the approach an oil spill modeler would typically follow when trying to hindcast or forecast an oil spill, including detailed technical information on basic aspects, like choosing a computational time step. We discuss our successful hindcast of the 2003 Point Wells oil spill that, to our knowledge, had remained unexplained. The oil spill models’ solutions are compared to the historical Point Wells’ oil trajectory, in time and space, as determined from overflight information. Our hindcast broadly replicates the correct locations at the correct times, using accurate tide and wind forcing. While the choice of wind coefficient we use is unconventional, a simplified analytic model supported by observations, suggests that it is justified under this study’s circumstances. We highlight some of the key oceanographic findings as they may relate to other oil spills, and to the regional oceanography of the Salish Sea, including recommendations for future studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2010

Concerning the Perturbations Generated by Flux Transfer Events

The interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetosphere is often highly unsteady. Bursts of magnetic reconnection at multiple locations on the dayside equatorial magnetopause generate flux transfer events or FTEs: twisted ropes of interconnected magnetosheath and magnetospheric magnetic field lines. Once formed, the events move antisunward, displacing and perturbing the ambient media. This talk explores the perturbations predicted by both global numerical simulations and analytical models. Results from global hybrid code simulation confirm the predictions of analytical models indicating that the events generate standing forward slow mode waves as their speeds relative to the magnetosheath flow approach the Alfven velocity. Geometric considerations lead to the conclusion that events generated by component reconnection on the dayside magnetopause move poleward and exhibit strong signatures during intervals of southward IMF orientation, but move towards the flanks and exhibit weak signatures during intervals of northward IMF orientation. Changing event orientations and magnetosheath/magnetospheric magnetic field orientation can enhance the amplitudes of events reaching the flanks. Although the orientations of events on the flanks inferred from multispacecraft timing techniques are consistent with the predictions of the component reconnection model, occurrence patterns versus latitude and IMF orientation require an explanation in terms of both the component and antiparallel reconnection models.

Sibeck, David G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests

Mountain ecosystems typically serve as carbon (C) sinks. However, studies also suggest that they could be C sources due to climate warming, drought and insect-related mortality, wildfires, and management actions. We applied the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), a process-based dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model, to investigate the role of ecosystem management in C storage under Mediterranean climate over the 21 st century. We modified LPJ-GUESS to include implementing mechanical thinning by vegetation size classes, components, and types along with a new mechanistic fire-occurrence model that accounts for wind speed and lightning ignition. Simulations show that mechanical thinning or prescribed fire performed 5-20 years in advance of a high-severity wildfire reduced direct wildfire C emissions by 38-66 %. Our results also show that long-term management actions repeated every 5-20 years, including thinning relatively small trees (diameters up to 7 inches or ∼178 mm), can maintain stable C levels in the forest and lower dead-fuel amounts. We found that, although prescribed fire mitigated wildfire severity, ecosystem C storage from reduced wildfire emissions can be outweighed by the added emissions from the prescribed fire themselves. Thinning plus removing and sequestering the thinned biomass can ensure that forests act as net C sinks through the end of the 21 st century. However, addition of prescribed fire is needed to reduce understory and lower the projected extent of high-severity wildfire. Achieving the competing goals of reducing wildfire and making the Sierra Nevada long-term C sink can be advanced through carefully coordinated thinning, sequestration of thinned biomass, and prescribed fire.

Climate solutions↗
DOE OSTI2014

Geothermal Case Studies

The US Geological Survey (USGS) resource assessment (Williams et al., 2009) outlined a mean 30GWe of undiscovered hydrothermal resource in the western US. One goal of the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is to accelerate the development of this undiscovered resource. The Geothermal Technologies Program (GTP) Blue Ribbon Panel (GTO, 2011) recommended that DOE focus efforts on helping industry identify hidden geothermal resources to increase geothermal capacity in the near term. Increased exploration activity will produce more prospects, more discoveries, and more readily developable resources. Detailed exploration case studies akin to those found in oil and gas (e.g. Beaumont, et al, 1990) will give operators a single point of information to gather clean, unbiased information on which to build geothermal drilling prospects. To support this effort, the National Renewable Energy laboratory (NREL) has been working with the Department of Energy (DOE) to develop a template for geothermal case studies on the Geothermal Gateway on OpenEI. In fiscal year 2013, the template was developed and tested with two case studies: Raft River Geothermal Area (http://en.openei.org/wiki/Raft_River_Geothermal_Area) and Coso Geothermal Area (http://en.openei.org/wiki/Coso_Geothermal_Area). In fiscal year 2014, ten additional case studies were completed, and additional features were added to the template to allow for more data and the direct citations of data. The template allows for: Data - a variety of data can be collected for each area, including power production information, well field information, geologic information, reservoir information, and geochemistry information. Narratives ? general (e.g. area overview, history and infrastructure), technical (e.g. exploration history, well field description, R&D activities) and geologic narratives (e.g. area geology, hydrothermal system, heat source, geochemistry.) Exploration Activity Catalog - catalog of exploration activities conducted in the area (with dates and references.) NEPA Analysis ? a query of NEPA analyses conducted in the area (that have been catalogued in the OpenEI NEPA database.) In fiscal year 2015, NREL is working with universities to populate additional case studies on OpenEI. The goal is to provide a large enough dataset to start conducting analyses of exploration programs to identify correlations between successful exploration plans for areas with similar geologic occurrence models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator

Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, computer program is software tool for analysis of reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. Traditional reliability analyses based on aggregates of fault-handling and fault-occurrence models. SURE provides efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for probabilities of death states for large class of semi-Markov mathematical models, and not merely those reduced to critical-pair architectures.

Butler, Ricky W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

An Analysis of Delay and Travel Times at Sao Paulo International Airport (AISP/GRU): Planning Based on Simulation Model

The occurrence of flight delays in Brazil, mostly verified at the ground (airfield), is responsible for serious disruptions at the airport level but also for the unchaining of problems in all the airport system, affecting also the airspace. The present study develops an analysis of delay and travel times at Sao Paulo International Airport/ Guarulhos (AISP/GRU) airfield based on simulation model. Different airport physical and operational scenarios had been analyzed by means of simulation. SIMMOD Plus 4.0, the computational tool developed to represent aircraft operation in the airspace and airside of airports, was used to perform these analysis. The study was mainly focused on aircraft operations on ground, at the airport runway, taxi-lanes and aprons. The visualization of the operations with increasing demand facilitated the analyses. The results generated in this work certify the viability of the methodology, they also indicated the solutions capable to solve the delay problem by travel time analysis, thus diminishing the costs for users mainly airport authority. It also indicated alternatives for airport operations, assisting the decision-making process and in the appropriate timing of the proposed changes in the existing infrastructure.

Santana, Erico Soriano Martins↗
NASA NTRS1983

Design of the hybrid automated reliability predictor

The design of the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP), now under development at Duke University, is presented. The HARP approach to reliability prediction is characterized by a decomposition of the overall model into fault-occurrence and fault-handling sub-models. The fault-occurrence model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain which is solved analytically, while the fault-handling model is a Petri Net which is simulated. HARP provides automated analysis of sensitivity to uncertainties in the input parameters and in the initial state specifications. It then produces a predicted reliability band as a function of mission time, as well as estimates of the improvement (narrowing of the band) to be gained by a specified amount of reduction in uncertainty.

Geist, R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning

Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗