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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Effortstoward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes inthese large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complexerror behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted usingmodern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previousstudies to apply an interpretable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also movetoward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoostclassification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to explore the errors inthe prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA GEOS model, a widely used Earth SystemModel. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error andindicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics ofthe land surface.

Artificial intelligence↗
NASA NTRS1987

On the next generation of reliability analysis tools

The current generation of reliability analysis tools concentrates on improving the efficiency of the description and solution of the fault-handling processes and providing a solution algorithm for the full system model. The tools have improved user efficiency in these areas to the extent that the problem of constructing the fault-occurrence model is now the major analysis bottleneck. For the next generation of reliability tools, it is proposed that techniques be developed to improve the efficiency of the fault-occurrence model generation and input. Further, the goal is to provide an environment permitting a user to provide a top-down design description of the system from which a Markov reliability model is automatically constructed. Thus, the user is relieved of the tedious and error-prone process of model construction, permitting an efficient exploration of the design space, and an independent validation of the system's operation is obtained. An additional benefit of automating the model construction process is the opportunity to reduce the specialized knowledge required. Hence, the user need only be an expert in the system he is analyzing; the expertise in reliability analysis techniques is supplied.

Babcock, Philip S., IV↗
NASA NTRS2010

Concerning the Perturbations Generated by Flux Transfer Events

The interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetosphere is often highly unsteady. Bursts of magnetic reconnection at multiple locations on the dayside equatorial magnetopause generate flux transfer events or FTEs: twisted ropes of interconnected magnetosheath and magnetospheric magnetic field lines. Once formed, the events move antisunward, displacing and perturbing the ambient media. This talk explores the perturbations predicted by both global numerical simulations and analytical models. Results from global hybrid code simulation confirm the predictions of analytical models indicating that the events generate standing forward slow mode waves as their speeds relative to the magnetosheath flow approach the Alfven velocity. Geometric considerations lead to the conclusion that events generated by component reconnection on the dayside magnetopause move poleward and exhibit strong signatures during intervals of southward IMF orientation, but move towards the flanks and exhibit weak signatures during intervals of northward IMF orientation. Changing event orientations and magnetosheath/magnetospheric magnetic field orientation can enhance the amplitudes of events reaching the flanks. Although the orientations of events on the flanks inferred from multispacecraft timing techniques are consistent with the predictions of the component reconnection model, occurrence patterns versus latitude and IMF orientation require an explanation in terms of both the component and antiparallel reconnection models.

Sibeck, David G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator

Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, computer program is software tool for analysis of reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. Traditional reliability analyses based on aggregates of fault-handling and fault-occurrence models. SURE provides efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for probabilities of death states for large class of semi-Markov mathematical models, and not merely those reduced to critical-pair architectures.

Butler, Ricky W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

An Analysis of Delay and Travel Times at Sao Paulo International Airport (AISP/GRU): Planning Based on Simulation Model

The occurrence of flight delays in Brazil, mostly verified at the ground (airfield), is responsible for serious disruptions at the airport level but also for the unchaining of problems in all the airport system, affecting also the airspace. The present study develops an analysis of delay and travel times at Sao Paulo International Airport/ Guarulhos (AISP/GRU) airfield based on simulation model. Different airport physical and operational scenarios had been analyzed by means of simulation. SIMMOD Plus 4.0, the computational tool developed to represent aircraft operation in the airspace and airside of airports, was used to perform these analysis. The study was mainly focused on aircraft operations on ground, at the airport runway, taxi-lanes and aprons. The visualization of the operations with increasing demand facilitated the analyses. The results generated in this work certify the viability of the methodology, they also indicated the solutions capable to solve the delay problem by travel time analysis, thus diminishing the costs for users mainly airport authority. It also indicated alternatives for airport operations, assisting the decision-making process and in the appropriate timing of the proposed changes in the existing infrastructure.

Santana, Erico Soriano Martins↗
NASA NTRS1983

Design of the hybrid automated reliability predictor

The design of the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP), now under development at Duke University, is presented. The HARP approach to reliability prediction is characterized by a decomposition of the overall model into fault-occurrence and fault-handling sub-models. The fault-occurrence model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain which is solved analytically, while the fault-handling model is a Petri Net which is simulated. HARP provides automated analysis of sensitivity to uncertainties in the input parameters and in the initial state specifications. It then produces a predicted reliability band as a function of mission time, as well as estimates of the improvement (narrowing of the band) to be gained by a specified amount of reduction in uncertainty.

Geist, R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Connecting Mission Profiles and Radiation Vulnerability Assessment

Radiation vulnerability assessment early in spacecraft development is cheaper and faster than in late development phases. RGENTIC and SEAM are two software platforms that can be coupled to provide this type of early assessment. Specifically, RGENTIC is a tool that outputs descriptions of radiation risks based on a selected mission environment and the system’s electronic part portfolio, while SEAM models how radiation-induced faults in electronic parts propagate through a system. In this work, we propose a spacecraft evaluation flow where RGENTIC’s outputs, which are radiation vulnerabilities of electronic parts for a given mission, become inputs to SEAM, resulting in an automatic part-type template palette presented to users so that they can easily begin modeling the occurrence and propagation of radiation-induced faults in their spacecraft. In this context, fault propagation modeling shows how radiation effects impact the spacecraft’s electronics.

Richard H. Nederlande↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Start Toward Micronucleus-Based Decompression Models; Altitude Decompression

Do gaseous micronuclei trigger the formation of bubbles in decompression sickness (DCS)? Most previous instructions for DCS prevention have been oriented toward supersaturated gas in tissue. We are developing a mathematical model that is oriented toward the expected behavior of micronuclei. The issue is simplified in altitude decompressions because the aviator or astronaut is exposed only to decompression, whereas in diving there is a compression before the decompression. The model deals with four variables: duration of breathing of 100% oxygen before going to altitude (O2 prebreathing), altitude of the exposure, exposure duration, and rate of ascent. Assumptions: a) there is a population of micronuclei of various sizes having a range of characteristics, b) micronuclei are stable until they grow to a certain critical nucleation radius, c) it takes time for gas to diffuse in or out of micronuclei, and d) all other variables being equal, growth of micronuclei upon decompression is more rapid at high altitude because of the rarified gas in the micronuclei. To estimate parameters, we use a dataset of 4,756 men in altitude chambers exposed to various combinations of the model s variables. The model predicts occurrence of DCS symptoms quite well. It is notable that both the altitude chamber data and the model show little effect of O2 prebreathing until it lasts more than 60 minutes; this is in contrast to a conventional idea that the benefit of prebreathing is directly due to exponential washout of tissue nitrogen. The delay in response to O2 prebreathing can be interpreted as time required for outward diffusion of nitrogen; when the micronuclei become small enough, they are disabled, either by crushing or because they cannot expand to a critical nucleation size when the subject ascends to altitude.

Van Liew, H. D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Earth survey applications division: Research leading to the effective use of space technology in applications relating to the Earth's surface and interior

Accomplishments and future plans are described for the following areas: (1) geology - geobotanical indicators and geopotential data; (2) modeling magnetic fields; (3) modeling the structure, composition, and evolution of the Earth's crust; (4) global and regional motions of the Earth's crust and earthquake occurrence; (5) modeling geopotential from satellite tracking data; (6) modeling the Earth's gravity field; (7) global Earth dynamics; (8) sea surface topography, ocean dynamics; and geophysical interpretation; (9) land cover and land use; (10) physical and remote sensing attributes important in detecting, measuring, and monitoring agricultural crops; (11) prelaunch studies using LANDSAT D; (12) the multispectral linear array; (13) the aircraft linear array pushbroom radiometer; and (14) the spaceborne laser ranging system.

Carpenter, L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Log Logistic Survival Model Applied to Hypobaric Decompression Sickness

Decompression sickness (DCS) is a complex, multivariable problem. A mathematical description or model of the likelihood of DCS requires a large amount of quality research data, ideas on how to define a decompression dose using physical and physiological variables, and an appropriate analytical approach. It also requires a high-performance computer with specialized software. I have used published DCS data to develop my decompression doses, which are variants of equilibrium expressions for evolved gas plus other explanatory variables. My analytical approach is survival analysis, where the time of DCS occurrence is modeled. My conclusions can be applied to simple hypobaric decompressions - ascents lasting from 5 to 30 minutes - and, after minutes to hours, to denitrogenation (prebreathing). They are also applicable to long or short exposures, and can be used whether the sufferer of DCS is at rest or exercising at altitude. Ultimately I would like my models to be applied to astronauts to reduce the risk of DCS during spacewalks, as well as to future spaceflight crews on the Moon and Mars.

Conkin, Johnny↗
NASA NTRS2023

Earth-System-Model Evaluation of Cloud and Precipitation Occurrence for Supercooled and Warm Clouds Over the Southern Ocean's Macquarie Island

Over the remote Southern Ocean (SO), cloud feedbacks contribute substantially to Earth system model (ESM) radiative biases. The evolution of low Southern Ocean clouds (cloud-top heights < ∼ 3 km) is strongly modulated by precipitation and/or evaporation, which act as the primary sink of cloud condensate. Constraining precipitation processes in ESMs requires robust observations suitable for process-level evaluations. A year-long subset (April 2016–March 2017) of ground-based profiling instrumentation deployed during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) field campaign (54.5∘ S, 158.9∘ E) combines a 95 GHz (W-band) Doppler cloud radar, two lidar ceilometers, and balloon-borne soundings to quantify the occurrence frequency of precipitation from the liquid-phase cloud base. Liquid-based clouds at Macquarie Island precipitate ∼ 70 % of the time, with deeper and colder clouds precipitating more frequently and at a higher intensity compared to thinner and warmer clouds. Supercooled cloud layers precipitate more readily than layers with cloud-top temperatures > 0 ∘C, regardless of the geometric thickness of the layer, and also evaporate more frequently. We further demonstrate an approach to employ these observational constraints for evaluation of a 9-year GISS-ModelE3 ESM simulation. Model output is processed through the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2) radar and lidar instrument simulator with the same instrument specifications as those deployed during MICRE, therefore accounting for instrument sensitivities and ensuring a coherent comparison. Relative to MICRE observations, the ESM produces a smaller cloud occurrence frequency, smaller precipitation occurrence frequency, and greater sub-cloud evaporation. The lower precipitation occurrence frequency by the ESM relative to MICRE contrasts with numerous studies that suggest a ubiquitous bias by ESMs to precipitate too frequently over the SO when compared with satellite-based observations, likely owing to sensitivity limitations of spaceborne instrumentation and different sampling methodologies for ground- versus space-based observations. Despite these deficiencies, the ESM reproduces the observed tendency for deeper and colder clouds to precipitate more frequently and at a higher intensity. The ESM also reproduces specific cloud regimes, including near-surface clouds that account for ∼ 25 % of liquid-based clouds during MICRE and optically thin, non-precipitating clouds that account for ∼ 27 % of clouds with bases higher than 250 m. We suggest that the demonstrated framework, which merges observations with appropriately constrained model output, is a valuable approach to evaluate processes responsible for cloud radiative feedbacks in ESMs.

cloud feedbacks↗
NASA NTRS2009

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.

Duda, David P.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation statistics

A two-component rain model has been developed for calculating attenuation statistics. In contrast to most other attenuation prediction models, the two-component model calculates the occurrence probability for volume cells or debris attenuation events. The model performed significantly better than the International Radio Consultative Committee model when used for predictions on earth-satellite paths. It is expected that the model will have applications in modeling the joint statistics required for space diversity system design, the statistics of interference due to rain scatter at attenuating frequencies, and the duration statistics for attenuation events.

Crane, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Subjective response of people to simulated sonic booms in their homes

In order to determine the effect of the number of sonic boom occurrences on annoyance, a computer-based system was developed for studying the subjective response of people to the occurrence of simulated sonic booms in their homes. The system provided a degree of control over the noise exposure not found in community surveys and a degree of situational realism not available in the laboratory. A system was deployed for eight weeks in each of 33 homes. Each day from 4 to 63 sonic booms were played as the test subject went about his or her normal activities. At the end of the day, the test subjects rated their annoyance to the sonic booms heard during the day. The sonic booms consisted of different combinations of waveforms, levels, and occurrence rates. The experiment confirmed that the increase in annoyance resulting from multiple occurrences can be modeled by the addition of the term "10 * log(number of occurrences)" to the sonic boom level. Of several noise metrics considered, perceived level was the best annoyance predictor. Comparisons of the subjective responses to the different sonic boom waveforms found no differences that were not accounted for by the noise metrics.

Noise, Transportation/adverse effects↗
NASA NTRS1994

Model study of multiple polar cap arcs: Occurrence and spacing

A new scenario for the formation of multiple polar cap arcs is proposed based on the results from a time-dependent electrodynamic model of polar cap arcs developed by Zhu et al. (1993). The results suggest that the appearance of multiple polar cap arcs may not be due to multiple structures in the magnetospheric source region, but instead, may primarily be determined by the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system in which the ionosphere plays an active role. It was found that with the same magnetospheric driver, a strong ionospheric background convection and an ionospheric background Hall conductance in the range of from 0.5 to 1.5 mho favor the occurrence of multiple polar cap arcs. It was also found that the spacing between individual arcs is highly correlated with the ratio of the enhanced Hall and Pedersen conductances (i.e., the hardness of the primary magnetospheric precipitation), which is allowed to vary in the model runs. A harder precipitation causes a wider spacing. In the modelings, the spacing ranged from about 20 kilometers to about 60 kilometers when the precipitation hardness increased.

Zhu, L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Analysis of typical fault-tolerant architectures using HARP

Difficulties encountered in the modeling of fault-tolerant systems are discussed. The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) approach to modeling fault-tolerant systems is described. The HARP is written in FORTRAN, consists of nearly 30,000 lines of codes and comments, and is based on behavioral decomposition. Using the behavioral decomposition, the dependability model is divided into fault-occurrence/repair and fault/error-handling models; the characteristics and combining of these two models are examined. Examples in which the HARP is applied to the modeling of some typical fault-tolerant systems, including a local-area network, two fault-tolerant computer systems, and a flight control system, are presented.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.↗