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At least 19 records

Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolution below ice shelves and near grounding lines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenging and Improving the Simulation of Mid-Level Mixed-Phase Clouds Over the High-Latitude Southern Ocean

Climate models exhibit major radiative biases over the Southern Ocean owing to a poor representation of mixed-phase clouds. In this study, we used the remote-sensing dataset from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) campaign to assess the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to reproduce frontal clouds off Antarctica. It focuses on the modeling of thin mid-level supercooled liquid water layers which precipitate ice. The standard version of WRF produces almost fully glaciated clouds and cannot reproduce cloud top turbulence. Our work demonstrates the importance of adapting the ice nucleation parameterization to the pristine austral atmosphere to reproduce the supercooled liquid layers. Once simulated, droplets significantly impact the cloud radiative effect by increasing downwelling longwave fluxes and decreasing downwelling shortwave fluxes at the surface. The net radiative effect is a warming of snow and ice covered surfaces and a cooling of the ocean. Despite improvements in our simulations, the local turbulent circulation related to cloud-top radiative cooling is not properly reproduced, advocating for the need to develop a parameterization for top-down convection to capture the turbulence-microphysics interplay at cloud top.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models

The Ocean Heat-Carbon Nexus, linking ocean heat and carbon uptake, is crucial for understanding climate responses to cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and to net zero CO 2 emissions. It results from a suite of processes involving the exchange of heat and carbon across the sea-air interface as well as their storage below the mixed layer and redistribution by the ocean large-scale circulation. The Ocean Heat and Carbon Nexus is assumed to be consistently represented across two modelling platforms used in the latest IPCC assessments: the Earth System Models (ESMs) and the Simple Climate Models (SCMs). However, our research shows significant deficiencies in state-of-the-art SCMs in replicating the ocean heat-carbon nexus of ESMs due to a crude treatment of the ocean thermal and carbon cycle coupling. With one SCM, we show that a more realistic heat-to-carbon uptake ratio exacerbates the projected warming by 0.1 °C in low overshoot scenarios and up to 0.2 °C in high overshoot scenarios. It is therefore critical to explore how SCMs’ physical inconsistencies, such as the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus, can affect future warming projections used in climate assessments, not just by SCMs in Working Group 3 but also by ESMs in Working Group 1 via SCM-driven emission-to-concentration translation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convective Transition Statistics over Tropical Oceans for Climate Model Diagnostics: Observational Baseline

Convective transition statistics, which describe the relation between column-integrated water vapor (CWV) and precipitation, are compiled over tropical oceans using satellite and ARM site measurements to quantify the temperature and resolution dependence of the precipitation–CWV relation at fast time scales relevant to convection. At these time scales, and for precipitation especially, uncertainties associated with observational systems must be addressed by examining features with a variety of instrumentation and identifying robust behaviors versus instrument sensitivity at high rain rates. Here the sharp pickup in precipitation as CWV exceeds a certain critical threshold is found to be insensitive to spatial resolution, with convective onset occurring at higher CWV but at lower column relative humidity as bulk tropospheric temperature increases. Mean tropospheric temperature profiles conditioned on precipitation show vertically coherent structure across a wide range of temperature, reaffirming the use of a bulk temperature measure in defining the convective transition statistics. The joint probability distribution of CWV and precipitation develops a peak probability at low precipitation for CWV above critical, with rapidly decreasing probability of high precipitation below and near critical, and exhibits systematic changes under spatial averaging. The precipitation pickup with CWV is reasonably insensitive to time averaging up to several hours but is smoothed at daily time scales. This work demonstrates that CWV relative to critical serves as an effective predictor of precipitation with only minor geographic variations in the tropics, quantifies precipitation-related statistics subject to different spatial–temporal resolution, and provides a baseline for model comparison to apply these statistics as observational constraints on precipitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Broad-Scale Surface Freshening of the Southern Ocean in a Coupled Climate Model

The Southern Ocean surface has freshened in recent decades, increasing water column stability and reducing upwelling of warmer subsurface waters. The majority of CMIP5 models underestimate or fail to capture this historical surface freshening, yet little is known about the impact of this model bias on regional ocean circulation and hydrography. Here experiments are performed using a global coupled climate model with additional freshwater applied to the Southern Ocean to assess the influence of recent surface freshening. The simulations explore the impact of persistent and long-term broad-scale freshening as a result of processes including precipitation minus evaporation changes. Thus, unlike previous studies, the freshening is applied as far north as 55°S, beyond the Antarctic ice margin. It is found that imposing a large-scale surface freshening causes a surface cooling and sea ice increase under preindustrial conditions, because of a reduction in ocean convection and weakened entrainment of warm subsurface waters into the surface ocean. This is consistent with intermodel relationships between CMIP5 models and the simulations, suggesting that models with larger surface freshening also exhibit stronger surface cooling and increased sea ice. Additional experiments are conducted with surface salinity restoration applied to capture observed regional salinity trends. Remarkably, without any mechanical wind trend forcing, these simulations accurately represent the spatial pattern of observed surface temperature and sea ice trends around Antarctica. This study highlights the importance of accurately simulating changes in Southern Ocean salinity to capture changes in ocean circulation, sea surface temperature, and sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convective Transition Statistics over Tropical Oceans for Climate Model Diagnostics: GCM Evaluation

To assess deep convective parameterizations in a variety of GCMs and examine the fast-time-scale convective transition, a set of statistics characterizing the pickup of precipitation as a function of column water vapor (CWV), PDFs and joint PDFs of CWV and precipitation, and the dependence of the moisture–precipitation relation on tropospheric temperature is evaluated using the hourly output of two versions of the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4), NCAR CAM5 and superparameterized CAM (SPCAM). The 6-hourly output from the MJO Task Force (MJOTF)/GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project is also analyzed. Contrasting statistics produced from individual models that primarily differ in representations of moist convection suggest that convective transition statistics can substantially distinguish differences in convective representation and its interaction with the large-scale flow, while models that differ only in spatial–temporal resolution, microphysics, or ocean–atmosphere coupling result in similar statistics. Most of the models simulate some version of the observed sharp increase in precipitation as CWV exceeds a critical value, as well as that convective onset occurs at higher CWV but at lower column RH as temperature increases. While some models quantitatively capture these observed features and associated probability distributions, considerable intermodel spread and departures from observations in various aspects of the precipitation–CWV relationship are noted. For instance, in many of the models, the transition from the low-CWV, nonprecipitating regime to the moist regime for CWV around and above critical is less abrupt than in observations. Additionally, some models overproduce drizzle at low CWV, and some require CWV higher than observed for strong precipitation. For many of the models, it is particularly challenging to simulate the probability distributions of CWV at high temperature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved Time-Stepping Methods in Global to Regional Ocean Modeling

Improvements in time-stepping schemes can provide substantial improvements in the throughput of global ocean-climate models, but is challenging due to large variations in time scales in the dynamics and spatial scales in the global, variable resolution mesh. Two funded projects aim to speed up the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean (MPAS-Ocean). The first will add a variable-timestepping formulation to MPAS-Ocean, which is a critical step towards running efficiently on global variable-resolution meshes with regional and coastal refinement. The second optimizes the barotropic (depth-integrated) mode, which is currently a performance bottleneck at high core counts. The proposed compute time will be used for extensive model validation and parameter studies for both methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AMOC stability and diverging response to Arctic sea ice decline in two climate models

This study compares the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in two configurations of the Community Earth System Model with different horizontal resolution. In a suite of model experiments, we impose radiative imbalance at the ice surface, replicating a loss of sea ice cover comparable to that observed during 1979–2014, and we find dramatic differences in the AMOC response between the two models. In the lower-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by about one-third over the first 100 years, approaching a new quasi-equilibrium. By contrast, in the higher-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by ~10% during the first 20–30 years followed by a full recovery driven by invigorated deep water formation in the Labrador Sea and adjacent regions. We investigate these differences using a diagnostic AMOC stability indicator, which reflects the AMOC freshwater transport in and out of the basin and hence the strength of the basin-scale salt-advection feedback. This indicator suggests that the AMOC in the lower-resolution model is less stable and more sensitive to surface perturbations, as confirmed by hosing experiments mimicking Arctic freshening due to sea ice decline. Differences between the models’ mean states, including the Atlantic Ocean mean surface freshwater fluxes, control the differences in AMOC stability. Our results demonstrate that the AMOC stability indicator is indeed useful for evaluating AMOC sensitivity to perturbations. We emphasize that, despite the differences in the long-term adjustment, both models simulate a multidecadal AMOC weakening caused by Arctic sea ice decline, relevant to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Instantaneous Linkages between Clouds and Large-Scale Meteorology over the Southern Ocean in Observations and a Climate Model

Instantaneous, coincident, footprint-level satellite observations of cloud properties and radiation taken during austral summer over the Southern Ocean are used to study relationships between clouds and large-scale meteorology. Cloud properties are very sensitive to the strength of vertical motion in the middle-troposphere, and low-cloud properties are sensitive to estimated inversion strength, low-level temperature advection, and sea surface temperature. These relationships are quantified. An index for the meteorological anomalies associated with midlatitude cyclones is presented, and it is used to reveal the sensitivity of clouds to the meteorology within the warm- and cold-sector of cyclones. The observed relationships between clouds and meteorology are compared to those in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using satellite simulators. Low-clouds simulated by CAM5 are too few, too bright, and contain too much ice, and low-clouds located in the cold-sector of cyclones are too sensitive to variations in the meteorology. The latter two biases are dramatically reduced when CAM5 is coupled with an updated boundary layer parameterization know as Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). More generally, this study demonstrates that examining the instantaneous timescale is a powerful approach to understanding the physical processes that control clouds and how they are represented in climate models. Such an evaluation goes beyond the cloud climatology and exposes model bias under various meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Effects of Climate Change on Legacy Waste at the Enewetak Atoll

The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is in the central Pacific Ocean ~4,500 km west of Hawaii. The Enewetak Atoll, located in the northwest part of the RMI, was the site for 43 nuclear weapon tests between 1948 and 1958. Fallout and deposition from the tests contaminated the island surfaces, lagoon waters and sediment, and nearby ocean waters at the atoll. In the 1970s, a cleanup effort collected radioactive waste and placed it in the Cactus Crater on Runit Island (also called the Runit Dome). In December 2021, Congress directed the U.S. Department of Energy to study the impacts of climate change on the Runit Dome nuclear waste disposal site. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) assembled a multidisciplinary team of climate scientists, ocean modelers, environmental scientists, and health physicists to assess the likely effects of remaining radionuclides at the Enewetak Atoll. PNNL’s approach focused on effects of tropical cyclones that were postulated to mobilize and transport contaminated lagoon sediments and result in human and biota exposure. PNNL’s study estimated (1) the radionuclide source term, (2) the effects of climate change on severe storms, (3) mobilization and transport of radionuclides, and (4) radiation dose to humans and biota. Radionuclides in the lagoon and/or ocean waters of the Enewetak Atoll were characterized by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) in 1972, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in 2015, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 2018. The RMI Nationwide Radiological Study was conducted in the early 1990s for radionuclides remaining in island soils. The 1972 AEC survey remains the most comprehensive source of radionuclide data on lagoon sediments. Climate change modeling at a regional scale in the central Pacific Ocean is limited. PNNL climate scientists simulated severe historical storms postulated to occur both in a recent climate (2015) and in the future (2090) using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model, employing a pseudo-global-warming technique. A postulated complete, future failure of the Runit Dome was also considered. PNNL developed a high-resolution regional ocean hydrodynamics model covering the entire RMI extended economic zone using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The FVCOM model was run using global reanalysis data for current climate and WRF-ARW simulation for the future climate. PNNL also developed a radionuclide fate and transport model using the FVCOM Integrated Compartment Model (FVCOM-ICM) to simulate the current and future mobilization and transport of radionuclides sorbed to lagoon sediments and the exchange of radionuclides between the water and sediment. FVCOM-ICM-predicted radionuclide concentrations were then used to estimate radiation dose to humans and biota at all islands of the Enewetak Atoll. Under current climate conditions, annual radiation exposures for the southern islands including Enewetak (Fred) and Medren (Elmer) were below the current U.S. standards. Radiation doses were somewhat elevated starting at Runit Island northward and westward to Enjebi Island (Janet). The islands in the northwest quadrant, particularly Bokoluo (Alice) and Bokombako (Belle), remain relatively contaminated. The islands in the southwestern quadrant have low contamination. The highest contribution to radiation doses comes from consumption of locally grown foods. Two radionuclides, 90Sr and 137Cs, contributed the greatest fraction for most terrestrial foods. In current climate conditions, the storms temporarily increased radionuclide concentrations in the lagoon waters, increasing the radiation dose slightly. In future conditions, doses are expected to be smaller, primarily because of the radioactive decay of the shorter-lived radioisotopes of 90Sr and 137Cs. This could make all islands in the far northwest of the atoll – except Bokombako (Belle) and perhaps Bokoluo (Alice) – suitable for residency. For the f

Prasad, Rajiv↗

Challenges and Prospects for Reducing Coupled Climate Model SST Biases in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans: The U.S. CLIVAR Eastern Tropical Oceans Synthesis Working Group

Well-known problems trouble coupled general circulation models of the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. Model climates are significantly more symmetric about the equator than is observed. Model sea surface temperatures are biased warm south and southeast of the equator, and the atmosphere is too rainy within a band south of the equator. Near-coastal eastern equatorial SSTs are too warm, producing a zonal SST gradient in the Atlantic opposite in sign to that observed. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Eastern Tropical Ocean Synthesis Working Group (WG) has pursued here an updated assessment of coupled model SST biases, focusing on the surface energy balance components, on regional error sources from clouds, deep convection, winds, and ocean eddies; on the sensitivity to model resolution; and on remote impacts. Motivated by the assessment, the WG makes the following recommendations: 1) encourage identification of the specific parameterizations contributing to the biases in individual models, as these can be model dependent; 2) restrict multimodel intercomparisons to specific processes; 3) encourage development of high-resolution coupled models with a concurrent emphasis on parameterization development of finer-scale ocean and atmosphere features, including low clouds; 4) encourage further availability of all surface flux components from buoys, for longer continuous time periods, in persistently cloudy regions; and 5) focus on the eastern basin coastal oceanic upwelling regions, where further opportunities for observational–modeling synergism exist.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

What Drives Upper-Ocean Temperature Variability in Coupled Climate Models and Observations?

Abstract A key question in climate modeling is to what extent sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content are driven passively by air–sea heat fluxes, as opposed to forcing by ocean dynamics. This paper investigates the question using a climate model at different resolutions, and observations, for monthly variability. At the grid scale in a high-resolution climate model with resolved mesoscale ocean eddies, ocean dynamics (i.e., ocean heat flux convergence) dominates upper 50 m heat content variability over most of the globe. For deeper depths of integration to 400 m, the heat content variability at the grid scale is almost totally controlled by ocean heat flux convergence. However, a strong dependence on spatial scale is found—for the upper 50 m of ocean, after smoothing the data to around 7°, air–sea heat fluxes, augmented by Ekman heat transports, dominate. For deeper depths of integration to 400 m, the transition scale becomes larger and is above 10° in western boundary currents. Comparison of climate model results with observations show that the small-scale influence of ocean intrinsic variability is well captured by the high-resolution model but is missing from a comparable model with parameterized ocean-eddy effects. In the deep tropics, ocean dynamics dominates in all cases and all scales. In the subtropical gyres at large scales, air–sea heat fluxes play the biggest role. In the midlatitudes, at large scales >10°, atmosphere-driven air–sea heat fluxes and Ekman heat transport variability are the dominant processes except in the western boundary currents for the 400 m heat content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Abstract Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level ( ζ ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ . The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME): Ocean and Sea-Ice Processes

The primary goal of this project was to understand the role of the ocean and sea-ice components in the evolution of the climate in both a high-resolution fully-coupled 1850 preindustrial control and present day transient climate simulations run using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), formerly known as the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME). Two distinct approaches to the initialization of the present day transients were tested: in the first, an ensemble of three transients used atmospheric reanalysis forced 0.1-degree ocean/sea-ice states, while a fourth transient was branched off the preindustrial control. Biases from the control were inherited by its successor transient, in particular, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at high latitudes were too warm and too much northward meridional heat transport occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. SSTs in the Northern Hemisphere and Atlantic meridional heat transport increased in the transients initialized from the ocean/sea-ice simulation over a 40-50 year period to largely resemble the transient branched off the control simulation. Excessive absorbed solar radiation (ASR) is considered to be responsible for the SST biases as well as the formation of mode waters in lighter density classes than in reality both in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre. These mode waters ventilate the thermocline waters to the north of their formation sites explaining the excessive Atlantic meridional heat transport and some of the warming in the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean after multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of ocean model resolution on understanding the delayed warming of the Southern Ocean

Abstract Currently available historical climate change simulations indicate a relatively delayed Southern Ocean warming, particularly poleward of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) compared much of the rest of the globe. However, even this simulated delayed warming is inconsistent with observational estimates which show a cooling trend poleward of the ACC for the period 1979–2014. A fully coupled model run at two resolutions, i.e. ocean eddy parameterized and ocean eddy resolving, driven by historical and fixed CO2 concentration is used to investigate forced trends south of the ACC. We analyze the 1961–2005 Southern Ocean surface and upper ocean temperatures trends simulated by the model and observational estimates to understand the observed trends in the SO. At both resolutions, the models successfully reproduce the observed warming response for the northern flank of the ACC. The eddy resolving simulations, however, are able to reproduce the observed near Antarctic cooling in contrast to the eddy parameterized simulation which shows a warming trend. The cause of this inconsistency between the observations and the ocean eddy parameterized climate models is still a matter of debate, and we show here results that suggest resolved ocean meso-scale processes may be an integral part of capturing the observed trends in the Southern Ocean.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Impacts of Observational Constraints Related to Sea Level on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity

Reduced complexity climate models are necessary tools for quantifying decision-relevant uncertainties, given their flexibility, computational efficiency, and suitability for large-ensemble frameworks necessary for statistical estimation using resampling techniques (e.g. Markov chain Monte Carlo—MCMC). Here we document a new version of the simple, open-source, global climate model Hector, coupled with a one-dimensional diffusive heat and energy balance model (Diffusion Ocean Energy balance CLIMate model; DOECLIM) and a sea-level change module (Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge; BRICK) that also represents contributions from thermal expansion, glaciers and ice caps, and polar ice sheets. We apply a Bayesian calibration approach to quantify model uncertainties surrounding 39 model parameters with prescribed radiative forcing, using observational information from global surface temperature, ocean heat uptake, and sea-level change. Furthermore, we find sea-level change as an observational constraint sharpens inference for the upper tail of posterior climate sensitivity estimates (the 97.5 percentile is tightened from 6.5 K to 5.3 K). The addition of sea-level change as an observational constraint also has implications for probabilistic projections of global surface temperature (the 97.5 percentile for RCP8.5 2100 temperature decreases 0.3 K) and sea-level rise (the 97.5 percentile for RCP8.5 2100 sea level decreases 0.5 m).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A global ensemble of ocean wave climate projections from CMIP5-driven models

This dataset, produced through the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) phase 2, represents the first coordinated multivariate ensemble of 21st Century global wind-wave climate projections available (henceforth COWCLIP2.0). COWCLIP2.0 comprises general and extreme statistics of significant wave height (H S ), mean wave period (T m ), and mean wave direction (θ m ) computed over time-slices 1979–2004 and 2081–2100, at different frequency resolutions (monthly, seasonally and annually). The full ensemble comprising 155 global wave climate simulations is obtained from ten CMIP5-based state-of-the-art wave climate studies and provides data derived from alternative wind-wave downscaling methods, and different climate-model forcing and future emissions scenarios. The data has been produced, and processed, under a specific framework for consistency and quality, and follows CMIP5 Data Reference Syntax, Directory structures, and Metadata requirements. Technical comparison of model skill against 26 years of global satellite measurements of significant wave height has been undertaken at global and regional scales. This new dataset provides support for future broad scale coastal hazard and vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation studies in many offshore and coastal engineering applications.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗