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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

Decision-making and problem-solving methods in automation technology

The state of the art in the automation of decision making and problem solving is reviewed. The information upon which the report is based was derived from literature searches, visits to university and government laboratories performing basic research in the area, and a 1980 Langley Research Center sponsored conferences on the subject. It is the contention of the authors that the technology in this area is being generated by research primarily in the three disciplines of Artificial Intelligence, Control Theory, and Operations Research. Under the assumption that the state of the art in decision making and problem solving is reflected in the problems being solved, specific problems and methods of their solution are often discussed to elucidate particular aspects of the subject. Synopses of the following major topic areas comprise most of the report: (1) detection and recognition; (2) planning; and scheduling; (3) learning; (4) theorem proving; (5) distributed systems; (6) knowledge bases; (7) search; (8) heuristics; and (9) evolutionary programming.

Hankins, W. W.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A decision model for planetary missions

Many techniques developed for the solution of problems in economics and operations research are directly applicable to problems involving engineering trade-offs. This paper investigates the use of utility theory for decision making in planetary exploration space missions. A decision model is derived that accounts for the objectives of the mission - science - the cost of flying the mission and the risk of mission failure. A simulation methodology for obtaining the probability distribution of science value and costs as a function spacecraft and mission design is presented and an example application of the decision methodology is given for various potential alternatives in a comet Encke mission.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Automated Decision Making and Problem Solving. Volume 1: Executive Summary

The May 1980 conference is summarized. Related topics in artificial intelligence, operations research, and control theory were explored. Existing techniques were assessed, trends of development determined, and potential for application in NASA automation technology programs were identified. Formal presentations were made by experts in the three disciplines nd a workshop was held in which current technology in automation and possible NASA interfaces with the academic community to advance this technology were discussed.

Heer, E.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Conference on Automated Decision-Making and Problem Solving, the Third Day: Issues Discussed

A conference held at Langley Research Center in May of 1980 brought together university experts from the fields of Control Theory, Operations Research, and Artificial Intelligence to explore current research in automation from both the perspective of their own particular disciplines and from that of interdisciplinary considerations. Informal discussions from the final day of the those day conference are summarized.

Hawkins, W. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fuzzy set methods for object recognition in space applications

During the reporting period, the development of the theory and application of methodologies for decision making under uncertainty was addressed. Two subreports are included; the first on properties of general hybrid operators, while the second considers some new research on generalized threshold logic units. In the first part, the properties of the additive gamma-model, where the intersection part is first considered to be the product of the input values and the union part is obtained by an extension of De Morgan's law to fuzzy sets, is explored. Then the Yager's class of union and intersection is used in the additive gamma-model. The inputs are weighted to some power that represents their importance and thus their contribution to the compensation process. In the second part, the extension of binary logic synthesis methods to multiple valued logic synthesis methods to enable the synthesis of decision networks when the input/output variables are not binary is discussed.

Keller, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Cognitive Systems Modeling and Analysis of Command and Control Systems

Military operations, counter-terrorism operations and emergency response often oblige operators and commanders to operate within distributed organizations and systems for safe and effective mission accomplishment. Tactical commanders and operators frequently encounter violent threats and critical demands on cognitive capacity and reaction time. In the future they will make decisions in situations where operational and system characteristics are highly dynamic and non-linear, i.e. minor events, decisions or actions may have serious and irreversible consequences for the entire mission. Commanders and other decision makers must manage true real time properties at all levels; individual operators, stand-alone technical systems, higher-order integrated human-machine systems and joint operations forces alike. Coping with these conditions in performance assessment, system development and operational testing is a challenge for both practitioners and researchers. This paper reports on research from which the results led to a breakthrough: An integrated approach to information-centered systems analysis to support future command and control systems research development. This approach integrates several areas of research into a coherent framework, Action Control Theory (ACT). It comprises measurement techniques and methodological advances that facilitate a more accurate and deeper understanding of the operational environment, its agents, actors and effectors, generating new and updated models. This in turn generates theoretical advances. Some good examples of successful approaches are found in the research areas of cognitive systems engineering, systems theory, and psychophysiology, and in the fields of dynamic, distributed decision making and naturalistic decision making.

Norlander, Arne↗
NASA NTRS1984

Issues in Developing a Normative Descriptive Model for Dyadic Decision Making

Most research in modelling human information processing and decision making has been devoted to the case of the single human operator. In the present effort, concepts from the fields of organizational behavior, engineering psychology, team theory and mathematical modelling are merged in an attempt to consider first the case of two cooperating decisionmakers (the Dyad) in a multi-task environment. Rooted in the well-known Dynamic Decision Model (DDM), the normative descriptive approach brings basic cognitive and psychophysical characteristics inherent to human behavior into a team theoretic analytic framework. An experimental paradigm, involving teams in dynamic decision making tasks, is designed to produce the data with which to build the theoretical model.

Serfaty, D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Air traffic management as principled negotiation between intelligent agents

The major challenge facing the world's aircraft/airspace system (AAS) today is the need to provide increased capacity, while reducing delays, increasing the efficiency of flight operations, and improving safety. Technologies are emerging that should improve the performance of the system, but which could also introduce uncertainty, disputes, and inefficiency if not properly implemented. The aim of our research is to apply techniques from intelligent control theory and decision-making theory to define an Intelligent Aircraft/Airspace System (IAAS) for the year 2025. The IAAS would make effective use of the technical capabilities of all parts of the system to meet the demand for increased capacity with improved performance.

Wangermann, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Inductive Approaches to Improving Diagnosis and Design for Diagnosability

The first research area under this grant addresses the problem of classifying time series according to their morphological features in the time domain. A supervised learning system called CALCHAS, which induces a classification procedure for signatures from preclassified examples, was developed. For each of several signature classes, the system infers a model that captures the class's morphological features using Bayesian model induction and the minimum message length approach to assign priors. After induction, a time series (signature) is classified in one of the classes when there is enough evidence to support that decision. Time series with sufficiently novel features, belonging to classes not present in the training set, are recognized as such. A second area of research assumes two sources of information about a system: a model or domain theory that encodes aspects of the system under study and data from actual system operations over time. A model, when it exists, represents strong prior expectations about how a system will perform. Our work with a diagnostic model of the RCS (Reaction Control System) of the Space Shuttle motivated the development of SIG, a system which combines information from a model (or domain theory) and data. As it tracks RCS behavior, the model computes quantitative and qualitative values. Induction is then performed over the data represented by both the 'raw' features and the model-computed high-level features. Finally, work on clustering for operating mode discovery motivated some important extensions to the clustering strategy we had used. One modification appends an iterative optimization technique onto the clustering system; this optimization strategy appears to be novel in the clustering literature. A second modification improves the noise tolerance of the clustering system. In particular, we adapt resampling-based pruning strategies used by supervised learning systems to the task of simplifying hierarchical clusterings, thus making post-clustering analysis easier.

Fisher, Douglas H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The role of behavioral decision theory for cockpit information management

The focus of this report is the consideration of one form of cognition, judgment and decision making, while examining some information management issues associated with the implementation of new forms of automation. As technology matures and more tasks become suitable to automation, human factors researchers will have to consider the effect that increasing automation will have on operator performance. Current technology allows flight deck designers the opportunity to automate activities involving substantially more cognitive processing.

Jonsson, Jon E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

An investigation of transitional management problems for the NSTS

Analysis and recommendations were provided to the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) on managing the transition from a research and development (R/D) structure to an operational structure. Summaries of published literature on the theory and applications of transition, or change management, and the results of interviews with additional industry personnel whose organizations either have gone through or are now going through change are contained. The issues of flight rates and the flight decision are addressed. The use of a computer simulation model to analyze the effect of varying different parameters on the flight rate was also discussed. The issue of NASA's changing demographics was examined and why this may be a cause for concern. The impact of the whole shuttle system structure on the Challenger accident was presented along with the highlights of the Rogers Commission Report. The proposed reorganization of the NSTS management structure is discussed and how this transition from R/D to operations can be performed.

Hunsucker, John L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Innovation, Technology and Decision Making: A Perspective for Strategic Action in Firms

Innovation, technology, and the making of decisions are tightly intertwined in what can generally be called, strategic decision making. Although true for all firms, it is especially true in innovative, high technology firms that operate in a turbulent, fast moving environment where strategic decisions must be made accurately and quickly to survive. This paper looks at some factors reported in the literature that affect how and why the strategic decision process is so important, especially in companies in fast-moving, competitive environments. The work of several prominent authors who looked critically at past theory and research, and the current state of knowledge and practice, provides a perspective of how firms make strategic decisions.

Mulenburg, Gerald M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Predictive monitoring research: Summary of the PREMON system

Traditional approaches to monitoring are proving inadequate in the face of two important issues: the dynamic adjustment of expectations about sensor values when the behavior of the device is too complex to enumerate beforehand, and the selective but effective interpretation of sensor readings when the number of sensors becomes overwhelming. This system addresses these issues by building an explicit model of a device and applying common-sense theories of physics to model causality in the device. The resulting causal simulation of the device supports planning decisions about how to efficiently yet reliably utilize a limited number of sensors to verify correct operation of the device.

Doyle, Richard J.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Cracking the Code: An Integrated Approach to Meeting Client Needs at NASA’s Langley Research Center

Organizational development (OD) is an interdisciplinary field that encourages the integration of many different concepts and theories in meeting client requirements. However, OD practitioners often maintain a significant amount of knowledge and lack specific guidance on how to combine concepts into a unified approach to drive change, thus making the selection and integration of disparate approaches challenging. To assist OD practitioners in navigating these challenges, a theory synthesizing approach is used to demonstrate the incremental insights that can be gained through the innovative integration of concepts, rather than being restricted to one perspective. More specifically, a novel Integrated Approach Decision-Making Tool is presented that offers specific steps to take to reach an effective, innovative solution. To further illustrate how this tool can be used in practice, an example is provided that details how this tool was used to achieve project success at NASA’s Langley Research Center through integrating three common OD models. Taken together, this paper will inform change agents operating in a similar capacity at any organization by providing a roadmap for how to meet client requirements and achieve increased project success through creating integrated, novel OD interventions.

Interdisciplinary↗
NASA NTRS1998

Measures and Interpretations of Vigilance Performance: Evidence Against the Detection Criterion

Operators' performance in a vigilance task is often assumed to depend on their choice of a detection criterion. When the signal rate is low this criterion is set high, causing the hit and false alarm rates to be low. With increasing time on task the criterion presumably tends to increase even further, thereby further decreasing the hit and false alarm rates. Virtually all of the empirical evidence for this simple interpretation is based on estimates of the bias measure Beta from signal detection theory. In this article, I describe a new approach to studying decision making that does not require the technical assumptions of signal detection theory. The results of this new analysis suggest that the detection criterion is never biased toward either response, even when the signal rate is low and the time on task is long. Two modifications of the signal detection theory framework are considered to account for this seemingly paradoxical result. The first assumes that the signal rate affects the relative sizes of the variances of the information distributions; the second assumes that the signal rate affects the logic of the operator's stopping rule. Actual or potential applications of this research include the improved training and performance assessment of operators in areas such as product quality control, air traffic control, and medical and clinical diagnosis.

Balakrishnan, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Item Retrieval as Utility Estimation

Retrieval systems have greatly improved over the last half century, estimating relevance to a latent user need in a wide variety of areas. One area that has not enjoyed such advancements is searching for items by attribute values, a common activity in e-commerce and science, particularly given numeric values. Existing item retrieval systems assume the user has a firm grasp of their own desires and can formulate a good Boolean or SQL-style query to retrieve items, as one would do with a database. A contrasting approach would be to estimate how well items match the user?s latent desires and return items ranked by this estimation. Towards this end, we present a retrieval model inspired by multi-criteria decision making theory, concentrating on numeric attributes. We evaluate our novel approach, the de-facto standard of Boolean retrieval, and several models proposed in the literature, in two user studies using Amazon Mechanical Turk. We use a competitive game to motivate test subjects and compare methods based on the results of the subjects? initial query and their success in the game. In our experiments, our new method signi cantly outperformed the others, whereas the Boolean approaches had the worst performance.

operations research↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging Human Performance Data to Change the Narrative that People are the Safety Problem

The study of errors and failure has a long and productive history in the behavioral sciences. By studying how systems fail, we rule out various mechanisms for how those systems might work, thereby refining our theories of how they actually work. Human performance, however, includes more than errors; human performance comprises both failures and successes. A systematic bias to collect and analyze data only on error affects the decisions we make as a community by promoting the narrative that “people are the safety problem.” This narrative manifests in both obvious and subtle ways in the design of systems intended for human use. When the only safety data that are available are about human failure, then “data-driven” designs can only consider that humans fail. Changing this narrative will depend on new data and new ways to examine data – specifically, data on the processes by which human create and contribute to safety. An alternate narrative is that people represent a primary source of safety, through their capability to anticipate, monitor for, respond to, and learn from expected and unexpected change. This presentation will describe research efforts to expand the range of safety-relevant events to include not just rare safety failures but frequent safety successes. These efforts include use of data from both operations and simulations to develop methods and metrics for learning from structured observation, self-report, and system data.

Jon Holbrook↗