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Heracles: Predictive Tools for Opioid Crisis Intervention - m/q Initiative Project Report

The opioid crisis in the United States is being fueled primarily by fentanyl and its molecular analogs, which can be anywhere from 50 to 1,000 times more potent than morphine. Fentanyl itself is straightforward to synthesize; furthermore, the structure is such that fentanyl’s flexible, rotatable side chains are easy to modify to create new analogs. Reference-free computational techniques to predict and identify new fentanyls have the potential to provide a desperately needed preemptive advantage to regulatory stakeholders and toxicologists. The computational pipeline Heracles was developed with this preemptive advantage in mind. Heracles has two primary components: 1) the creation of an in silico library of putative fentanyl analogs, and 2) a downselection pipeline to prioritize generated fentanyl analogs predicted to be potent and easy to synthesize. Experimental observables were also predicted for prioritized analogs, with validation of the observables begun. Heracles has demonstrated potential to aid in the advancement of reference-free paradigms while providing new tools to first responders and other stakeholders attempting to mitigate the opioid crisis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

People who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago: A meta-analysis of data from 1997-2017 to inform interventions and computational modeling toward hepatitis C microelimination

Progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in the United States is not on track to meet targets set by the World Health Organization, as the opioid crisis continues to drive both injection drug use and increasing HCV incidence. A pragmatic approach to achieving this is using a microelimination approach of focusing on high-risk populations such as people who inject drugs (PWID). Computational models are useful in understanding the complex interplay of individual, social, and structural level factors that might alter HCV incidence, prevalence, transmission, and treatment uptake to achieve HCV microelimination. However, these models need to be informed with realistic sociodemographic, risk behavior and network estimates on PWID. We conducted a meta-analysis of research studies spanning 20 years of research and interventions with PWID in metropolitan Chicago to produce parameters for a synthetic population for realistic computational models (e.g., agent-based models). We then fit an exponential random graph model (ERGM) using the network estimates from the meta-analysis in order to develop the network component of the synthetic population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗