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Considerations for Resilience Guidelines for Clean Energy Plans: For the Oregon Public Utility Commission and Oregon Electricity Stakeholders

This document summarizes relevant approaches, research, models, and national examples for state utility regulators tasked with developing utility guidelines for risk-based resiliency planning. In 2021, the Oregon Legislature enacted a 100 percent clean electricity by 2040 standard that requires the Oregon Public Utility Commission (PUC) to oversee utility planning for aggressive clean energy deployment through Clean Energy Plans (House Bill 2021, Sec. 4). In addition to meeting emissions reductions targets, Clean Energy Plans must also: "Include a risk-based examination of resiliency opportunities that includes costs, consequences, outcomes, and benefits based on reasonable and prudent industry resiliency standards and guidelines established by the Public Utility Commission." This report will support the Oregon Public Utility Commission in developing resilience guidelines. Other state public utility commissions may also benefit from this research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Seventh Oregon Climate Assessment

Consistent with its charge under Oregon House Bill 3543, the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) conducts a biennial assessment of the state of climate change science, including biological, physical, and social science, as it relates to Oregon and the likely effects of climate change on Oregon. This seventh Oregon Climate Assessment, which builds on the previous assessments, is structured with the goal of supporting the state's mitigation planning for natural hazards and implementation of the Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Oregon Roadway CSZ Liquefaction and Landslide Impact Screening Analysis

The roadway transportation routes and the surrounding environments in Oregon will be subject to ground acceleration and potential associated deformation due to the propagation of waves of energy during a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. Linear features such as highways may be subject to partial or complete disruption of their function resulting from ground deformations at and along the roadway. A potential source of these disruptions associated with a CSZ event are landslides and liquefaction in the soils along and beneath the highways and local roadways. The construction of the Oregon roadway system and urban development have occurred largely along the banks of the rivers—those along the Pacific coast, and along the valleys throughout the Oregon Coast Range and Cascade Mountains. These locations also represent areas where landslides and liquefaction have occurred historically, or may potentially occur in the future, presenting a significant vulnerability for the roadway system and dependent post-CSZ earthquake emergency response and recovery effort. Many of the Oregon areas with landslide- and liquefaction-prone soils have the potential to impact roadway transportation routes after a major earthquake causing delays in establishing routes to transport emergency response personnel and resources to impacted areas and communities. This report presents methods used to project the impacts that CSZ earthquake-induced landslides and liquefaction may have on roadways across Oregon. First, this report presents an approach for estimating the risk of landslides to Oregon roadways, and determining approximate reopening times. Second, this report presents a similar approach for estimating the risk of liquefaction-induced ground displacements to roadway pavements, also resulting in approximate reopening times for roadway segments. The outcomes of these two ground failure analyses serve as inputs to a broader analysis of CSZ earthquake impacts to Oregon’s surface transportation system and its ability to support post-disaster response and recovery activities, as part of the Oregon Transportation Systems Regional Resiliency Assessment Program project (CISA 2021).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind [Slides]

This analysis used high-resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model (PCM) of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios vary both offshore wind capacities and the Western Interconnection generation and transmission infrastructure. From the scenario modeling and analysis, we identified the following key findings. In addition, we simulated a subset of the scenarios for a range of historical weather years (2007-2013), to understand the robustness of our findings to different weather conditions. Trans-coastal transmission constraints and congestion are the key drivers to the curtailment of Oregon offshore wind. Once power can be delivered into the Willamette Valley, there are few system constraints that lead to a significant curtailment of offshore wind off the coast of Oregon. Approximately 2.6 GW of installed offshore wind capacity can be integrated into Oregon's power system without major upgrades to trans-coastal transmission while avoiding significant curtailment. The system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$65$ /MWh and $\$85$ /MWh across the various scenarios considered. Offshore wind heavily influences the flow of the cross Cascade transmission. Across all scenarios, we found a robust relationship of approximately 500-550 MW decrease in the hourly flow of the cross Cascade transmission for every 1,000 MW of hourly offshore wind generation. However, we also found there was not a strong relationship between the highest cross-Cascade transmission flow hours and high offshore wind generation, limiting the extent to which offshore wind can be considered a non-wires alternative to cross cascade transmission. Depending on the meteorological year, 880-1,580 MW and 1,650-3,100 MW can be counted on to serve coastal loads with 2.6 GW and 5 GW of offshore wind capacity, respectively. Offshore wind allows for more optimal daily and hourly scheduling of hydropower, while still complying with various technical and regulatory constraints on the water resource. Oregon offshore wind has the potential to contribute to the evening net load peak in California (i.e., mitigate duck curve challenges), however transmission congestion between California and Oregon limits this contribution. Co-located storage at the point of interconnection for offshore wind reduces curtailment when trans-coastal transmission is not upgraded, providing a non-wires alternative to increase offshore wind capacity beyond 2.6 GW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Oregon Offshore Wind Site Feasibility and Cost Study

The work performed in this Oregon study assessed the present and future costs of floating offshore wind technology deployment in the state of Oregon at commercial scale. It is widely recognized that floating offshore wind energy technology will be needed if significant offshore wind deployment in the Pacific region is to occur. The study was performed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its subcontractors and funded by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). It was based, in part, on assumptions and analysis from an NREL report titled 'A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015-2030' (Beiter et al. 2016), which supported the 'National Offshore Wind Strategy' (Gilman et al. 2016). The strategy builds on the previous DOE Wind Vision Study Scenario of 86 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind deployed by 2050 in the United States. Under the Wind Vision scenario, 20% (17.2 GW installed capacity) of the nation's total offshore wind in 2050 comes from the Pacific coastal states (DOE 2015), which will require the development of floating wind technologies. Although most offshore development to date has been in depths of 50 meters (m) or less, 97% of Oregon's offshore wind resource is in water depths greater than 60 m, where floating wind is assumed to be needed. Floating offshore wind technology is still in its nascent stage of development but is advancing toward commercialization in both Europe and Asia. In this report, we use available floating prototype costs, pilot-scale costs, and commercial-scale costs from fixed-bottom offshore wind projects to model and analyze the cost of floating wind for five hypothetical wind sites in Oregon using specific geographical and utility grid information.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Elevating Engagement: Insights for Energy Infrastructure Siting from Oregon Literature

Our study conducts a meta-synthesis of existing Oregon-based literature on stakeholder and community engagement methods across a variety of contexts to identify best practices and lessons learned to inform future engagement processes for Oregon’s energy siting. We analyze and synthesize these strategies to understand what has worked well across engagement practices and how we can integrate and learn from a variety of methods to develop more effective practices for engagement moving forward. We look at the successes and challenges for each method, applying lessons learned to the pre-permitting phase of energy development and infrastructure planning in Oregon. Our results synthesize key recommendations for engagement in the pre-permitting phase for energy infrastructure siting in Oregon, such as consensus and relationship building, local partnerships, and background research to understand community context.

energy infrastructure↗

An outbreak of Septoria canker caused by Sphaerulina musiva on Populus trichocarpa in eastern Oregon

Branch and stem cankers were observed in a Populus trichocarpa L. plantation in late summer of 2018 near Boardman, Oregon USA. Stem cankers were flat faced with swollen margins and the bark in the center of the cankers was black and depressed (Figure 1). 254 out of 1054 trees (25%) observed had cankers. Symptomatic stems and branches from several trees were brought to Oregon State University for identification. Cankers were surface-disinfested in a 5% NaOCl for 2 min and rinsed twice in deionized H 2 O for 2 min. Bark was removed from cankers and pieces of wood at the margin between healthy and necrotic tissue were plated on KV8 medium amended with streptomycin sulfate at 100 mg liter–1 and chloramphenicol (Amresco) at 240 mg liter–1 (Dunnell and LeBoldus 2017). Eight sporulating colonies typical of Sphaerulina musiva (Peck) Quaedvlieg, Verkley, and Crous (Syn. = Septoria musiva Peck) developed within 7 days of plating. S. musiva was identified by morphological characteristics (conidium size = 28–54 × 3.5–4 µm) and confirmed by comparing the sequence of the ITS region (accession numbers: MN275180-MN275187) to JX901814 with 99% identity. We tested 13 additional cankers collected from the plantation using S. musiva specific primers (Abraham et al. 2018). Eight of the 13 samples were positive for S. musiva DNA. Dormant cuttings from three genotypes of P. trichocarpa (BESC-184; BESC-259; BESC-388) were collected in a field planting near Oregon State University (OSU). These were planted in cone-tainers in the greenhouse at OSU and grown to approximately 30 cm in height. Four replicates of each of the three genotypes were inoculated in the greenhouse with one Oregon isolate using a suspension of 1x10 6 conidia ml-1. The entire tree was sprayed until runoff using a spray bottle (LeBoldus et al. 2010). The experimental design was a completely randomized design with four replicates of each genotype. Sterile deionized H 2 O was sprayed on one control tree of each genotype. The mean number of resulting cankers were BESC-184 = 11, BESC-259 = 1, and BESC-388 = 13.75. The controls did not develop any cankers. The pathogen was successfully reisolated from one canker from each genotype. Sphaerulina musiva can cause severely damaging leaf spot and stem canker diseases in the eastern and central USA and Canada (Bier 1939; Herath et al. 2016). Susceptible Populus species and hybrids develop cankers which can girdle and weaken stems, leading to breakage or tree death (Bier 1939). A previous survey of the region did not detect S. musiva (Newcombe et al. 1995). This outbreak of Septoria canker underscores the potential threat of this pathogen to P. trichocarpa in the Pacific Northwest where it is a keystone species in riparian ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Oregon Rivers Characterization Tool

DHS’s Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) undertook the Oregon State Transportation Systems RRAP project between 2018-2021 to assess the seismic vulnerabilities of the state’s transportation system to a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake (CISA 2021). The project primarily focused on the effects of a CSZ earthquake on the mobility of emergency response efforts into the region. In the event that bridges located at crucial river crossings fail during a CSZ earthquake, rivers will become natural barriers affecting the ability to support response and recovery efforts. The characteristics of rivers (e.g., width, depth, and flow) are critical data to inform planning for the recovery of transportation systems across river barriers and determine reopening times following a CSZ earthquake. As part of the transportation system assessment, an Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) project team developed a River Characterization Tool (RCT) to quantify the physical characteristics of the river system in Oregon, which can be used to inform a system-level analysis of transportation recovery and reopening times. This report mainly discusses approaches, methods, development, and applications of the RCT. The use of the river data generated from this tool for a system-level analysis of transportation recovery is discussed in the Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP Resiliency Assessment report (CISA 2021). The primary goal of the RCT is to generate statewide dataset of widths, depths, and flows for all rivers across Oregon to assess the effects of river barriers on emergency response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. The RCT leverages remote sensing data that multispectral sensors collect from satellites, employs a deep learning model to characterize river predictions, and computes river channel geometric dimensions with hydraulic relationships and river predictions. The entire process of river characterization is automated and implemented through the RCT.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind

This analysis used high resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios varied offshore wind penetrations and explored the differences of integrating offshore wind in the current grid and a potential future grid. This allowed us to determine how changes to the rest of the system and increasing penetrations of offshore wind affected our findings. We identified a number of key findings from the analysis, including that 2.6 GW of nameplate capacity offshore wind could be integrated into the Oregon power system with minimal curtailment due to transmission congestion or other factors. The range of system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$$65/MWh and $\$$85/MWh across the various scenarios considered. We also examined the influence offshore wind had on the trans-Cascade power flow, where we determined a strong correlation between offshore wind generation and reduction in flow across the Cascades. Finally, we also determined that offshore wind could serve between 84 - 93% of Coastal Oregon loads depending on the scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Capacity contributions of Southern Oregon offshore wind to the Pacific Northwest and California

Variable renewable energy generation poses unique capacity challenges, which increasingly depend on weather events at varying timescales. Facilitated by transmission planning, geographic and technological diversity of the generation fleet may provide a mitigation to capacity shortfalls. In this work, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Crescent City, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios are modeled within the Western Interconnection: (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected to Southern Oregon through a High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) Radial Topology in 2030; (ii) 12.9 GW of installed OSW capacity connected to Washington, Oregon, and California through a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Radial Topology post-2030, and (iii) the same 12.9 GW connected to the same locations through a Multi-terminal DC (MTDC) Backbone Topology post-2030. Zonal dispatch simulations assuming coincident wind, solar, and hydropower production and loads over 18 meteorological years, accounting for temperature-dependent equipment derating and forced outages, serve as inputs to the Associated System Capacity Contribution (ASCC) methodology. The capacity credit is 33%, 25% and 34% for the 2030 HVAC Radial Topology, 2030+ HVDC Radial Topology, and 2030+ MTDC Backbone Topology, respectively. Transmission design is shown to mitigate the typical erosion of marginal capacity contribution as more OSW is developed, underscoring the opportunity for grid modernization while decarbonizing the generation mix.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Oregon Residential Energy Code Field Study

A research project in the state of Oregon identified opportunities to reduce homeowner utility bills in residential single-family new construction by increasing compliance with the state energy code. The study was initiated in November 2019; data collection began in November 2019 and continued through February 2020. Analysis of the data has led to a better understanding of the energy features present in homes and identified over $600,000 in potential annual savings to Oregon homeowners that could result from increased compliance with the 2017 Oregon Residential Specialty Code (2017 ORSC).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Oregon Direct Use Geothermal Well Data

This excel file provides direct use geothermal data for various wells located in Oregon. Data includes well name, location, heating application, temperature and flow of fluid, capacity, energy use, and load factor. The data is from the State of Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (linked below), where additional data downloads and metadata may be found.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Updated Oregon Floating Offshore Wind Cost Modeling [Slides]

The study provides heat maps showing updated estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for floating offshore wind energy off the coast of Oregon. This project builds on a 2019 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) floating offshore wind power cost study in Oregon (Musial et al. 2019) and a recent NREL California cost analysis (Beiter et al. 2020). Floating wind power cost data, modeling methodology, and resource data are updated and LCOE is estimated through 2032 using 2019 as a reference year. Comparisons are made to the previous offshore wind energy cost studies (Musial et al. 2019; Beiter et al. 2020). The study does not prioritize specific sites or make judgments about marine spatial planning viability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Northern California and Southern Oregon Offshore Wind Transmission Study: Volume 1 (Revised)

Offshore wind (OSW) power based on floating technology in the coastal waters of the U.S. Pacific Ocean has great potential to contribute to climate mitigation and renewable energy goals in California, Oregon, and other parts of the western U.S. To achieve development of OSW at scale, investments in transmission infrastructure are needed to deliver this power to major metropolitan areas because these are the primary electricity load centers. Currently the transmission infrastructure serving coastal regions where OSW is most likely to be developed has limited capacity and is designed to bring power from the east to serve modest coastal loads. The development of OSW generation and the interconnection of this resource to the bulk power grid will require major investments in new transmission infrastructure and upgrades to existing infrastructure. This study investigated the development of up to 25.8 GW of OSW energy on the northern coast of California and the southern coast of Oregon. The focus of the study was to assess various transmission alternatives that could deliver OSW power to distant load centers while also providing energy benefits to rural coastal communities near to where OSW power may be developed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Exploring the Grid Value of Offshore Wind Energy in Oregon

The significant offshore wind energy potential of Oregon faces several challenges, including a power grid which was not developed for the purpose of transmitting energy from the ocean. The grid impacts of the energy resource are considered through the lenses of (i) resource complementarity with Variable Renewable Energy resources; (ii) correlations with load profiles from the four balancing authorities with territory in Oregon; and (iii) spatial value to regional and coastal grids as represented through a production cost model of the Western Interconnection. The capacity implications of the interactions between offshore wind and the historical east-to-west power flows of the region are discussed. The existing system is shown to accommodate more than two gigawatts of offshore wind interconnections with minimal curtailment. Through three gigawatts of interconnection, transmission flows indicate a reduction of coastal and statewide energy imports as well as minimal statewide energy exports.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Detection efficiency of adult Pacific lamprey passage counts at Leaburg Dam and upstream distribution in the McKenzie River (Oregon, USA)

Abstract Adult Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) were counted using consistent methodology since 2005 with a video monitoring system as they passed Leaburg Dam (McKenzie River, Oregon, USA) en route to upstream spawning areas. In this study we evaluated the detection efficiency of the video system and upstream distribution of Pacific lamprey using the video counts of lamprey passage (herein, “dam counts”), passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and radio telemetry. In 2019–2020 we collected, tagged and tracked 32 adult lamprey (4 from the McKenzie River and 28 that were translocated from Willamette Falls). All fish were tagged and released into the tailrace of Leaburg Dam in June 2019. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife employees and volunteers from the local community conducted mobile radiotracking above and below the dam in drift boats (114 mainstem river kilometers) and on foot (several tributaries). The estimated detection efficiency for dam counts was 92% (95% confidence interval: 67%–99%). Fifty percent (16 of 32) of the tagged lamprey passed the dam, including 13 of 28 that were translocated. Thirty‐seven percent (6 of 16) of lamprey that passed Leaburg Dam were detected in a restored reach of the South Fork McKenzie, 32.6 river kilometers upstream of the dam.

Romer, Jeremy D.↗

Exploring the Grid Value Potential of Offshore Wind Energy in Oregon

The grid value of Oregon's offshore wind resource is considered through the lenses of (i) resource complementarity with the hydroelectric system and other Variable Renewable Energy resources, (ii) load complementarity with the four balancing authorities with territory in Oregon, and (iii) spatial value to regional and coastal grids as represented through a Production Cost Model of the WECC system. Capacity implications of the interactions between offshore wind and the historical east-to-west power flows of the region are reviewed. The existing system is shown to accommodate 2GW of offshore wind interconnections without curtailment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

TASTI-GRID: Overview of the State of Oregon’s Resilience and Reliability [Slides]

This report is intended to help your state identify the most effective investments to improve grid resilience and reliability, based on analysis of outage data, weather events, and the current state of the electric grid. The information presented is derived from the best available data. The discussions and recommendations included provide context and valuable insights into potential high returns on investment (ROI). Specifically, the report offers an overview of electric grid resilience in Oregon, covering outage information, reasons for outages, calculated "resilience scores" across the state, and recommendations for both immediate and long-term investments in grid infrastructure. The document provides a concise overview of the analytical capabilities of the TASTI-GRID team. By utilizing additional data and resources, it synthesizes insights from the platform to present a distinct perspective on investing in grid resilience throughout Oregon. This document is not intended to influence or direct state-level decisions related to investments in grid resilience and reliability. TASTI-GRID should not be used for real-time monitoring, supporting the ESF #12 emergency response functions, or predicting the restoration times for outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗