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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of satellite measurements of ozone and ozone trends

Measurements of ozone retrieved from satellite instruments over the 1979-1991 period are compared. The instruments used are the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS), the solar backscattered ultraviolet experiment (SBUV), and stratospheric aerosol and gas experiments (SAGE) I and II. Although there is good agreement between the absolute densities of ozone as measured by the various instruments, the long-term changes (1979-1990) disagree sharply as a function of pressure and in the integrated ozone amount. In the upper stratosphere, SBUV trends are negative with maximum values of about -1.5%/year at high latitudes. Combined SAGE I and II trends are slightly positive in this region and peak near 0.5%/year at equatorial latitudes. In the lower stratosphere, SBUV trends reflect small decreases in ozone, generally less than -0.4%/year except at high southern latitudes where the trends rearch values of approximately -1.5%/year. SAGE ozone trends exhibit large decreases particularly in the equatorial regions where decreases of 3-6%/year are seen at pressures between 60 and 90 mbar. At higher latitudes, SAGE trends are more comparable to SBUV trends in the lower stratosphere. Total ozone trends from TOMS and SBUV agree within their uncertainties. Near-zero trends are indicated at low latitudes, and larger, negative trends (approximately -0.5%/year) are indicated near the poles. The SAGE column ozone trends depend upon the base level altitude of integration but do not exhibit a strong latitude dependence.

Rusch, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Contribution of Dynamic Interannual Variability to Ozone Trends

At middle latitudes the total column ozone and the lower stratospheric ozone mixing ratio exhibit natural variability. Models and statistical analyses of observations such as SAGE ozone profiles and TOMS column measurements show that seasonal cycle, solar cycle, and interannual dynamical variability and dynamical phenomena such as the quasi- biennial oscillation all contribute to ozone variability. These must be accounted for when deriving ozone trends. Systematic or random changes in the atmospheric circulation may also contribute to ozone trends. It is presently unclear how much of the ozone trend derived from observations is due to changes in the chemical composition of the stratosphere and how much is due to changes in the atmospheric circulation. We are attempting to resolve this issue by comparing a twenty-five year simulation of ozone with fixed source gas boundary conditions with an identical simulation with time dependent source gas boundary conditions. Both simulations are driven with output from a general circulation model that produces realistic interannual variability in dynamical forcing. The model trend in ozone due to changes in composition is determined from the difference in these simulations. We compare these trends with trends determined from observations and model output using the same analysis techniques. Initial results emphasize the complications to attribution of observed ozone trends to dynamical and photochemical effects that are due to interrelationships between trends in transport, temperature, and photochemical effects. It may not be possible to describe the ozone trend as a superposition of dynamical and photochemical contributions.

Douglass, Anne↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Discussion of Upper Stratospheric Ozone Asymmetry and Ozone Trend Changes

Analyses from SAGE I/II version 6.0 data exhibit upper stratospheric ozone trends which are not significantly different from those in version 5.96 data. Trend calculations show larger downward trends at mid-high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in 1980s. There are also indications of decreasing downward trends with time from 1979 to 1999. We have used a chemical box model and the UARS measurements of long lived gases, CH4, H2O, NO(x), and temperature to show that, with a constant Cl(sub y) trend, a hemispheric ozone trend asymmetry of 1%/decade at 45 deg. around 43 km is expected due to the hemispheric differences of temperature and CH4 during late winter/early. Also ozone trends should have been approximately 1%/decade more negative from 1979-1989 than from 1989-1999 because of the chemical feedbacks. The model results further indicate that both the reported decrease in CH4 and the increase in H2O in HALOE measurements will result in a larger downward ozone trend and a decrease in the hemispheric ozone trend asymmetry.

Li, Jinlong↗
NASA NTRS2002

SAGE (version 5.96) Ozone Trends in the Lower Stratosphere

Ozone retrievals from Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II version 5.96 (v5.96) below approx. 25 km altitude are discussed. This version of the algorithm includes improved constraints on the wavelength dependence of aerosol extinctions based on the ensemble of aerosol size distribution measurements. This results in a reduction of SAGE ozone errors in the 2 years after the Mount Pinatubo eruption. However, SAGE ozone concentrations are still approx. 10% larger than ozonesonde and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) measurements below 20 km altitude under nonvolcanic conditions (and by more than this in the tropics). The analysis by Steele and Turco suggests that the SAGE ozone overpredictions are in the wrong direction to be explained by aerosol extinction extrapolation errors. Moreover, preliminary SAGE 11 v6.0a retrievals suggest that they are partially accounted for by geometric difficulties at low altitudes in v5.96 and prior retrievals. SAGE ozone trends for the 1979-1996 and 1984-1996 periods are calculated and compared, and the sources of trend errors are discussed. These calculations are made after filtering out ozone data during periods of high, local aerosol extinctions. In the lower stratosphere, below approx. 28 km altitude, there is shown to be excellent agreement in the altitudinal structure of ozone decreases at 45 deg N between SAGE and ozonesondes with the largest decrease in both between 1979 and 1996 having occurred below 20 km altitude, amounting to 0.9 +/- 0.7% yr (2sigma) at 16 km altitude. However, in contrast to the fairly steady decreases at 45 deg N, both SAGE measurements and Lauder ozonesondes show ozone increases at 45 deg S over the period from the mid-1980s to 1996 of 0.2 +/- 0.5%/yr (2sigma) from 15 to 20 km altitude. The SAGE data suggest that this increase is a wintertime phenomenon which occurs in the 15-20 km height range. Changes in dynamics are suggested as the most likely cause of this increase. These hemispheric differences in ozone trends are supported by ozone column measurements by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS).

Cunnold, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Investigating Zonal Asymmetries in Stratospheric Ozone Trends From Satellite Limb Observations and a Chemical Transport Model

This study investigates the origin of a zonal asymmetry in stratospheric ozone trends at northern high latitudes, identified in satellite limb observations over the past two decades. We use a merged data set consisting of ozone profiles retrieved at the University of Bremen from SCIAMACHY and OMPS-LP measurements to derive ozone trends. We also use TOMCAT chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, forced by ERA5 reanalyses, to investigate the factors that drive the asymmetry observed in the long-term changes. By studying seasonally and longitudinally resolved observation-based ozone trends, we find, especially during spring, a well-pronounced asymmetry at polar latitudes with values up to +6 % per decade over Greenland and −5 % per decade over western Russia. The control CTM simulation agrees well with these observed trends, whereas sensitivity simulations indicate that chemical mechanisms involved in the production and removal of ozone, or their changes, are unlikely to explain the observed behavior. The decomposition of TOMCAT ozone time series and ERA5 geopotential height into the first two wavenumber components shows a clear correlation between the two variables in the middle stratosphere and demonstrates a weakening and a shift in the wavenumber-1 planetary wave activity over the past two decades. Finally, the analysis of the polar vortex position and strength points to a decadal oscillation with a reversal pattern at the beginning of the century. The same is found in the ozone trend asymmetry. This further stresses the link between changes in the polar vortex position and the identified ozone trend pattern.

Instrumentation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ozone Trends in the Lower Stratosphere from Ozone Sondes

Chemistry-Climate-Model simulations indicate that ozone in the mid-latitude lower troposphere should have generally been increasing since about 2000. Satellite data, however, have not confirmed such an increase. Instead, they seem to indicate that the pre-2000 decline of lower stratospheric ozone may have continued at mid-latitudes over the last 20 years as well [1,2]. Altitude resolution and information content of satellite observations on ozone in the lowermost stratosphere are, however, limited. Ozone sondes, on the other hand, provide the most detailed information on ozone in troposphere and lower stratosphere, but are limited to just a few soundings per month at maybe 40 stations world-wide [3].

lower stratospheric ozone trends↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LOTUS Highlights on Ozone Trend Analyses and Phase 3 Direction

LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) is a SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate)-sponsored effort to foster collaboration between established and early career scientists around the world, with expertise in ozone observations, modeling, and trend tools, with an aim toward innovating new climate research that meets the needs of the ozone trends community and provides vital contributions to the WMO Assessment in an organized and cohesive way. Here we will summarize recent studies associated with the LOTUS effort that perform trend analyses on both total column and vertical profiles of ozone. The main findings of the derived trends from both observations and chemistry climate models have important implications for the status of the ozone layer as they pertain to the efficacy of the Montreal Protocol. These results also present new questions and knowledge gaps that will be outlined as areas of future study in Phase 3 of the LOTUS effort over the next few years to inform the next Assessment.

LOTUS↗
NASA NTRS1987

TOMS: The Antarctic ozone hole and ozone trends

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard Nimbus 7 has proved invaluable for the investigation of the recent rapid decline in the springtime total ozone over the Antarctic. The principle problem discussed is that of observing the atmosphere over long periods of time to determine whether or not trends and/or slow oscillations are taking place. Total ozone is an excellent summary parameter for the state of the stratosphere. It responds to temperature changes, and in the long term, is expected to respond to chemical changes. Thus, when changes take place in total ozone, such as the springtime Antarctic decrease it is a clear indication of an important problem, both because of environmental potential and scientific importance. TOMS is actually an overkill for this problem. Significantly more data is taken than is necessary. Tests have shown that maps produced on a 2 by 4 degree grid are essentially equivalent to those produced from the entire gridded data set. Because the critical aspect of the search for changes in ozone is continuous data, reflight of a polar orbiting TOMS is important. Included in the flight should be a stratospheric temperature sensor and, if possible, a modification to obtain some ozone altitude information. A critical aspect of the problem is timeliness of the data. This is the only drawback of the existing TOMS. It is expected that in the very near future the processing will be done within two weeks of real time. This is critical to the process of discovery of phenomena such as the Antarctic ozone hole.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Stratospheric Ozone Trends and Variability as Seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012

Vertical profiles of the rate of linear change (trend) in the altitude range 15-50 km are determined from decadal O3 time series obtained from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT measurements in limb-viewing geometry. The trends are calculated by using a multivariate linear regression. Seasonal variations, the quasi-biennial oscillation, signatures of the solar cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are accounted for in the regression. The time range of trend calculation is August 2002-April 2012. A focus for analysis are the zonal bands of 20 deg N - 20 deg S (tropics), 60 - 50 deg N, and 50 - 60 deg S (midlatitudes). In the tropics, positive trends of up to 5% per decade between 20 and 30 km and negative trends of up to 10% per decade between 30 and 38 km are identified. Positive O3 trends of around 5% per decade are found in the upper stratosphere in the tropics and at midlatitudes. Comparisons between SCIAMACHY and EOS MLS show reasonable agreement both in the tropics and at midlatitudes for most altitudes. In the tropics, measurements from OSIRIS/Odin and SHADOZ are also analysed. These yield rates of linear change of O3 similar to those from SCIAMACHY. However, the trends from SCIAMACHY near 34 km in the tropics are larger than MLS and OSIRIS by a factor of around two.

stratosphere↗
NASA NTRS1994

Total ozone trends over the USA during 1979-1991 from Dobson spectrophotometer observations

Ozone trends for 1979-1991, determined from Dobson spectrophotometer observations made at eight stations in the United States, are augmented with trend data from four foreign cooperative stations operated by NOAA/CMDL. Results are based on provisional data archived routinely throughout the years at the World Ozone Data Center in Toronto, Canada, with calibration corrections applied to some of the data. Trends through 1990 exhibit values of minus 0.3 percent to minus 0.5 percent yr(exp -1) at mid-to-high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. With the addition of 1991 data, however, the trends become less negative, indicating that ozone increased in many parts of the world during 1991. Stations located within the plus or minus 20 deg N-S latitude band exhibit no ozone trends. Early 1992 data show decreased ozone values at some of the stations. At South Pole, Antarctica, October ozone values have remained low during the past 3 years.

Komhyr, Walter D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Preliminary assessment of possible aerosol contamination effects on SAGE ozone trends in the lower stratosphere

An investigation of the validity of long-term ozone trends in the lower stratosphere derived from SAGE I and II measurements is described. At altitudes below approximately 20 km, it is important to separate the ozone and aerosol contributions to SAGE extinction at 600 nm. The correlation between SAGE II measurements of ozone and aerosols indicates that most of the variability in these parameters is associated with physically induced variations resulting from quasi-horizontal motions of air parcels. The SAGE ozone measurements are however found to be as much as 20 percent larger than coincident ozonesonde measurements between 15 and 20 km altitude. A sudden change in the difference at approximately 14.5 km altitude for which there is a change in the SAGE aerosol retrieval procedure suggests that SAGE ozone trends below 20 km altitude may be more sensitive to aerosol variations. Between 20 and 25 km altitude, however, both SAGE and the ozonesondes indicate a reduction in ozone of approximately 0.5 percent/year over the period 1979 to 1989 at midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Cunnold, Derek M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Upper-Stratospheric Ozone Trends 1979-1998

Extensive analyses of ozone observations between 1978 and 1998 measured by Dobson Umkehr, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) I and II, and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) and (SBUV)/2 indicate continued significant ozone decline throughout the extratropical upper stratosphere from 30-45 km altitude. The maximum annual linear decline of -0.8 +/- 0.2 %/yr(2sigma) occurs at 40 km and is well described in terms of a linear decline modulated by the 11-year solar variation. The minimum decline of -0.110.1% yr-1(2o) occurs at 25 km in midlatitudes, with remarkable symmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at 40 km altitude. Midlatitude upper-stratospheric zonal trends exhibit significant seasonal variation (+/- 30% in the Northern Hemisphere, +/- 40% in the Southern Hemisphere) with the most negative trends of -1.2%/yr occurring in the winter. Significant seasonal trends of -0.7 to -0.9%/yr occur at 40 km in the tropics between April and September. Subjecting the statistical models used to calculate the ozone trends to intercomparison tests on a variety of common data sets yields results that indicate the standard deviation between trends estimated by 10 different statistical models is less than 0.1%/yr in the annual-mean trend for SAGE data and less than 0.2%/yr in the most demanding conditions (seasons with irregular, sparse data) [World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1998]. These consistent trend results between statistical models together with extensive consistency between the independent measurement-system trend observations by Dobson Umkehr, SAGE I and II, and SBUV and SBUV/2 provide a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of the declining ozone amounts reported here. Additional details of ozone trend results from 1978 to 1996 (2 years shorter than reported here) along with lower-stratospheric and tropospheric ozone trends, extensive intercomparisons to assess relative instrument drifts, and retrieval algorithm details are given by WMO [1998].

Newchurch, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles: Implications for ozone trends

Solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone profiles have been compared with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II profiles over the period October 1984 through June 1990, when data are available from both instruments. SBUV measurements were selected to closely match the SAGE II latitude/longitude measurement pattern. There are significant differences between the SAGE II sunrise and the sunset zonal mean ozone profiles in the equatorial zone, particularly in the upper stratosphere, that may be connected with extreme SAGE II solar azimuth angles for tropical sunrise measurements. Calculation of the average sunset bias between SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles shows that allowing for diurnal variation in Umkehr layer 10, SBUV and SAGE II agree to within +/- 5% for the entire stratosphere in the northern midlatitude zone. The worst agreement is seen at southern midlatitudes near the ozone peak (disagreements of +/- 10%), apparently the result of the SBUV ozone profile peaking at a lower altitude than SAGE. The integrated ozone columns (cumulative above 15 km) agree very well, to within +/- 2.3% in all zones for both sunset and sunrise measurements. A comparison of the time dependence of SBUV and SAGE II shows that there was less than +/- 5% relative drift over the 5.5 years for all altitudes except below 25 km, where the SBUV vertical resolution is poor. The best agreement with SAGE is seen in the integrated column ozone (cumulative above 15 km), where SAGE II has a 1% negative trend relative to SBUV over the comparison period. There is a persistent disagreement of the two instruments in Umkehr layers 9 and 10 of +/- 4% over the 5.5-year comparison period. In the equatorial zone this disagreement may be caused in part by a large positive trend (0.8 K per year) in the National Meteorologica Center temperatures used to convert the SAGE II measurement of ozone density versus altitude to a pressure scale for comparison with SBUV. In the middle stratosphere (30-40 km), SBUV shows a 2-4% negative drift relative to SAGE II. If the actual ozone trends are considered, SBUV and SAGE II agree in showing little ozone change (less than 2%) between 1984 and 1990, except in layer 3 where SAGE II measures a large ozone decrease. But over 11 years, SBUV measured a 7% per decade ozone decrease between 40 and 50 km, decreasing in magnitude at lower altitudes, in good agreement with 11-year trends derived from the average of 5 Umkehr stations.

Mcpeters, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Altitude dependence of stratospheric ozone trends based on Nimbus 7 SBUV data

A multiple regression statistical model is applied to estimate the altitude, latitude, and seasonal dependences of stratospheric ozone trends using 11.5 years of Nimbus 7 SBUV data for the period November 1978 to June 1990. In the upper stratosphere, the derived trends agree in both latitude dependence and approximate amplitude with published predictions from stratospheric models that consider gas-phase chemical processes together with the observed approx. 0.1 ppbV per year increase in tropospheric chlorine. The dominant contribution to column ozone trends occurs in the lower stratosphere where significant negative trends are present at latitudes greater than 20 deg in both hemispheres. The observed latitude dependence is qualitatively consistent with model predictions that include the effects of heterogeneous chemical ozone losses on lower stratospheric aerosols.

Hood, Lon L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Long-term observed ozone trends in the free troposphere and lower stratosphere

The vertical distributions of ozone trends in the free troposphere and lower stratosphere were derived from ozonesonde observations taken over an average period of approximately 20 years. The results for the annual trends show a consistent pattern of increased ozone of approximately 1 percent/yr to 2 percent/yr up to approximately 300 mb and decreased ozone of approximately -0.6 percent/yr from approximately 100 to 50 mb. Statistically significant positive trends found in midtroposphere (approximately 500 mb) at a set of representative stations in the Northern Hemisphere have little apparent seasonal variation. Negative trends are generally strongest at 50-70 mb with a tendency to be larger during spring. A highly significant negative trend of approximately -5 percent/yr is found near 100 mb over Syowa (69 deg S) during spring.

London, Julius↗
NASA NTRS2000

Reducing The Station-to Station Variability of Umkehr Ozone Trends Using SAGE Measurements

This proposed research sought to use SAGE I and II ozone and aerosol measurements to reduce the variability in ozone trends, principally, but not exclusively, in layer 8 (40 km) derived from multiple Umkehr stations. Building on our experience with both SAGE and Umkehr data, we proposed to commence at the very beginning of the Umkehr process (measured radiance ratios) and proceed through the fitting and inversion processes in conjunction with radiative transfer calculations to establish a consistent, reliable time series of Umkehr ozone profiles at a number of stations. We expected to be able to reconcile the present discrepancies between SAGE and Umkehr trends in the upper stratosphere and, in particular, to reduce the variability in trend estimates among mid-latitude Umkehr stations.

Newchurch, Mike↗
NASA NTRS1981

Total ozone trend significance from space time variability of daily Dobson data

Estimates of standard errors of total ozone time and area means, as derived from ozone's natural temporal and spatial variability and autocorrelation in middle latitudes determined from daily Dobson data are presented. Assessing the significance of apparent total ozone trends is equivalent to assessing the standard error of the means. Standard errors of time averages depend on the temporal variability and correlation of the averaged parameter. Trend detectability is discussed, both for the present network and for satellite measurements.

Wilcox, R. W.↗