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At least 19 records

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40% by 2050s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. As a result, this has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Snow distribution patterns revisited: A physics-based and machine learning hybrid approach to snow distribution mapping in the sub-Arctic Supporting Data

Snow in the Arctic and sub-Arctic is highly variable at fine scales, with deep drifts and shallow scoured areas creating a complex pattern of snow on the landscape. This fine-scale variation in snow is driven primarily by landscape and vegetation properties. Some landscape features, such as river beds, will rapidly fill in with snow during the wintertime due to high winds, while shrubs will trap blowing snow, resulting in drifts. Meanwhile, snow will blow off of exposed areas, resulting in abnormally shallow snow. These complex interactions between wind, vegetation, and terrain are difficult to represent well with physically-based models, but machine learning techniques have shown promise in the past. Here, we propose a hybrid modeling approach, where we use machine learning derived snow pattern maps to inform SnowModel, a physically-based snow process model. We develop and test this technique at the Teller 27 Seward Peninsula NGEE-Arctic study site. This dataset includes 5 *.nc files of model inputs and outputs plus one user guide (*.pdf). We present the data we use to drive SnowModel (vegetation type, digital elevation model), the snow pattern maps used to inform SnowModel (Standardized Depth Values maps, Machine Learning Snow Distribution Pattern), and our machine learning, SnowModel, and Hybrid snow depth and snow water equivalent results. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative genomics reveals phylogenetic distribution patterns of secondary metabolites in Amycolatopsis species

Background: Genome mining tools have enabled us to predict biosynthetic gene clusters that might encode compounds with valuable functions for industrial and medical applications. With the continuously increasing number of genomes sequenced, we are confronted with an overwhelming number of predicted clusters. In order to guide the effective prioritization of biosynthetic gene clusters towards finding the most promising compounds, knowledge about diversity, phylogenetic relationships and distribution patterns of biosynthetic gene clusters is necessary. Results: Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the model actinobacterial genus Amycolatopsis and its potential for the production of secondary metabolites. A phylogenetic characterization, together with a pan-genome analysis showed that within this highly diverse genus, four major lineages could be distinguished which differed in their potential to produce secondary metabolites. Furthermore, we were able to distinguish gene cluster families whose distribution correlated with phylogeny, indicating that vertical gene transfer plays a major role in the evolution of secondary metabolite gene clusters. Still, the vast majority of the diverse biosynthetic gene clusters were derived from clusters unique to the genus, and also unique in comparison to a database of known compounds. Our study on the locations of biosynthetic gene clusters in the genomes of Amycolatopsis’ strains showed that clusters acquired by horizontal gene transfer tend to be incorporated into non-conserved regions of the genome thereby allowing us to distinguish core and hypervariable regions in Amycolatopsis genomes. Conclusions: Using a comparative genomics approach, it was possible to determine the potential of the genus Amycolatopsis to produce a huge diversity of secondary metabolites. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that horizontal and vertical gene transfer play an important role in the acquisition and maintenance of valuable secondary metabolites. Our results cast light on the interconnections between secondary metabolite gene clusters and provide a way to prioritize biosynthetic pathways in the search and discovery of novel compounds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial patterns of snow distribution in the sub-Arctic

Abstract. The spatial distribution of snow plays a vital role in sub-Arctic and Arctic climate, hydrology, and ecology due to its fundamental influence on the water balance, thermal regimes, vegetation, and carbon flux. However, the spatial distribution of snow is not well understood, and therefore, it is not well modeled, which can lead to substantial uncertainties in snow cover representations. To capture key hydro-ecological controls on snow spatial distribution, we carried out intensive field studies over multiple years for two small (2017–2019; ∼ 2.5 km2) sub-Arctic study sites located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Using an intensive suite of field observations (> 22 000 data points), we developed simple models of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) using factors such as topographic characteristics, vegetation characteristics based on greenness (normalized different vegetation index, NDVI), and a simple metric for approximating winds. The most successful model was random forest, using both study sites and all years, which was able to accurately capture the complexity and variability of snow characteristics across the sites. Approximately 86 % of the SWE distribution could be accounted for, on average, by the random forest model at the study sites. Factors that impacted year-to-year snow distribution included NDVI, elevation, and a metric to represent coarse microtopography (topographic position index, TPI), while slope, wind, and fine microtopography factors were less important. The characterization of the SWE spatial distribution patterns will be used to validate and improve snow distribution modeling in the Department of Energy's Earth system model and for improved understanding of hydrology, topography, and vegetation dynamics in the sub-Arctic and Arctic regions of the globe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Severe Convective Storms in Limited Instability Organized by Pattern and Distribution

Abstract Severe convection occurring in high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments is a common cool-season threat in the southeastern United States. Previous studies of HSLC convection document the increased operational challenges that these environments present compared to their high-CAPE counterparts, corresponding to higher false-alarm ratios and lower probability of detection for severe watches and warnings. These environments can exhibit rapid destabilization in the hours prior to convection, sometimes associated with the release of potential instability. Here, we use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to objectively identify environmental patterns accompanying HSLC cool-season severe events and associate them with variations in severe weather frequency and distribution. Large-scale patterns exhibit modest variation within the HSLC subclass, featuring strong surface cyclones accompanied by vigorous upper-tropospheric troughs and northward-extending regions of instability, consistent with prior studies. In most patterns, severe weather occurs immediately ahead of a cold front. Other convective ingredients, such as lower-tropospheric vertical wind shear, near-surface equivalent potential temperature (θ e ) advection, and the release of potential instability, varied more significantly across patterns. No single variable used to train SOMs consistently demonstrated differences in the distribution of severe weather occurrence across patterns. Comparison of SOMs based on upper and lower quartiles of severe occurrence demonstrated that the release of potential instability was most consistently associated with higher-impact events in comparison to other convective ingredients. Overall, we find that previously developed HSLC composite parameters reasonably identify high-impact HSLC events. Significance Statement Even when atmospheric instability is not optimal for severe convective storms, in some situations they can still occur, presenting increased challenges to forecasters. These marginal environments may occur at night or during the cool season, when people are less attuned to severe weather threats. Here, we use a sorting algorithm to classify different weather patterns accompanying such storms, and we distinguish which specific patterns and weather system features are most strongly associated with severe storms. Our goals are to increase situational awareness for forecasters and to improve understanding of the processes leading to severe convection in marginal environments.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Flexible Machine Learning-Based Cyberattack Detection Using Spatiotemporal Patterns for Distribution Systems

This letter develops a flexible machine learning detection method for cyberattacks in distribution systems considering spatiotemporal patterns. Spatiotemporal patterns are recognized by the graph Laplacian based on system-wide measurements. A flexible Bayes classifier (BC) is used to train spatiotemporal patterns which could be violated when cyberattacks occur. Cyberattacks are detected by using flexible BCs online. The effectiveness of the developed method is demonstrated through standard IEEE 13- and 123-node test feeders.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ceramic matrix composite article and process of fabricating a ceramic matrix composite article

A ceramic matrix composite article and a process of fabricating a ceramic matrix composite are disclosed. The ceramic matrix composite article includes a matrix distribution pattern formed by a manifold and ceramic matrix composite plies laid up on the matrix distribution pattern, includes the manifold, or a combination thereof. The manifold includes one or more matrix distribution channels operably connected to a delivery interface, the delivery interface configured for providing matrix material to one or more of the ceramic matrix composite plies. The process includes providing the manifold, forming the matrix distribution pattern by transporting the matrix material through the manifold, and contacting the ceramic matrix composite plies with the matrix material.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Grassland ecosystem type drives AM fungal diversity and functional guild distribution in North American grasslands

Nutrient exchange forms the basis of the ancient symbiotic relationship that occurs between most land plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. Plants provide carbon (C) to AM fungi and fungi provide the plant with nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P). Nutrient addition can alter this symbiotic coupling in key ways, such as reducing AM fungal root colonization and changing the AM fungal community composition. However, environmental parameters that differentiate ecosystems and drive plant distribution patterns (e.g., pH, moisture), are also known to impact AM fungal communities. Identifying the relative contribution of environmental factors impacting AM fungal distribution patterns is important for predicting biogeochemical cycling patterns and plant-microbe relationships across ecosystems. Here, to evaluate the relative impacts of local environmental conditions and long-term nutrient addition on AM fungal abundance and composition across grasslands, we studied experimental plots amended for 10 years with N, P, or N and P fertilizer in different grassland ecosystem types, including tallgrass prairie, montane, shortgrass prairie, and desert grasslands. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found ecosystem type, not nutrient treatment, was the main driver of AM fungal root colonization, diversity, and community composition, even when accounting for site-specific nutrient limitations. We identified several important environmental drivers of grassland ecosystem AM fungal distribution patterns, including aridity, mean annual temperature, root moisture, and soil pH. This work provides empirical evidence for niche partitioning strategies of AM fungal functional guilds and emphasizes the importance of long-term, large scale research projects to provide ecologically relevant context to nutrient addition studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Using yttrium as an indicator to estimate total rare earth element concentration: a case study of anthracite-associated clays from northeastern Pennsylvania

Abstract This study demonstrated using yttrium (Y) as an indicator to estimate the total rare earth element and Y contents (REY) in coal-associated samples and to facilitate selection of samples with high REY assays in a fast and inexpensive manner. More than 10 anthracite-associated samples were collected from each of three Pennsylvanian sites (sites B, J and C) based on Thorium gamma ray logging suggesting high REY content. Several samples from each site were analyzed by ICP-MS to determine the rare earth distribution patterns and to establish the site-specific linear equations of Y and REY. The Y contents of the remaining samples were measured by a portable X-ray fluorescence analyzer, and the REY values were estimated based on the site-specific linear equation developed earlier. R-squared values above 0.70 were obtained for all the estimation equations from all three sites on both a whole sample basis and an ash basis. Previously, ash content has been widely used as an indicator of high REY content. This may not be applicable for a specific site. Site B in this study is an example where ash contents could not be statistically correlated with REY, so using Y for estimation is more applicable. The demonstrated sample screening process is suitable for samples from sites that share more similar distribution patterns (either MREY or LREY or HREY) as well as for samples from sites that share multiple distribution patterns (LREY/MREY/HREY) depending on the desirable accuracy. The demonstrated process lowers the analytical cost from $70 to 80 dollars per sample to $10–15 per sample while significantly reducing the processing time and acid consumption for ICP digestion. This is particularly true when a relatively large sample size is involved, for example, 100 samples from one site analyzed by ICP-MS/OES.

Yang, Xiaojing↗

Changes in the Stress–Strain States of Subsurface Layers of Steel During Loading

As a result of investigations of compressive deformation of steel specimens using a Vic-3D optical system it is found out that the regions of local deformations along two mutually perpendicular directions possess different character near the butt ends of the specimen in compression. It is underlined that the values of strains along these directions are also different. In the central part of the specimen, an oval region is formed with varied patterns of microstrain distribution. The transition from the stage of elastic strain (Region I in the stress–strain curve σ = f(ɛ)) to plastic deformation is accompanied by a transition from the chaotic diversified distribution of the spatial structural elements into long bands with a characteristic distribution pattern on the specimen surface: along the macrobands of plastic deformation from the corners and side faces of the specimen towards its center. Starting from Stage 1 and to the middle of Stage IV, the key role in the strain evolution on the surface belongs to the macrobands of localized plastic flow. At the end of Stage IV, the macrobands of plastic flow degenerate. A special focus is made on the fact that the transition from one stage to the other results in the changes of the strain field distributions on the specimen surface and is characterized by a different value of the strain hardening coefficient.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Distribution of Mn Oxidation States in Grassland Soils and Their Relationships with Soil Pores

Manganese (Mn) is known to be an active contributor to processing and cycling of soil organic carbon (C), yet the exact mechanisms behind its interactions with C are poorly understood. Plant diversity in terrestrial ecosystems drives feedback links between plant C inputs and soil pores, where the latter, in turn, impact the redox environment and Mn. This study examined associations between soil pores (>36 μm Ø) and Mn within intact soils from two grassland ecosystems, after their >6-year implementation in a replicated field experiment. In this work, we used μ-XRF imaging and XANES spectroscopy to explore spatial distribution patterns of Mn oxidation states, combined with X-ray computed microtomography and 2D zymography. A high plant diversity system (restored prairie) increased soil C and modified spatial distribution patterns of soil pores as compared to a single species system (monoculture switchgrass). In switchgrass, the abundance of oxidized and reduced Mn oxidation states varied with distance from pores consistently with anticipated O 2 diffusion, while in the soil from restored prairie, the spatial patterns suggested that biological activity played a greater role in influencing Mn distributions. Based on the findings, we propose a hypothesis that Mn transformations promote C gains in soils of high plant diversity grasslands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effective Electrostatic Interactions Between Two Overall Neutral Surfaces with Quenched Charge Heterogeneity Over Atomic Length Scale

Using Monte Carlo results as a reference, a classical density functional theory (CDFT) is shown to reliably predict the forces between two heterogeneously charged surfaces immersed in an electrolyte solution, whereas the Poisson–Boltzmann (PB) theory is demonstrated to deteriorate obviously for the same system even if the system parameters considered fall within the validity range of the PB theory in the homogeneously charged surfaces. By applying the tested CDFT, we study the effective electrostatic potential of mean force (EPMF) between two face–face planar and hard surfaces of zero net charge on which positive and negative charges are separated and considered to present as discontinuous spots on the inside edges of the two surfaces. Main conclusions are summarized as follows: (i) strength of the EPMF in the surface charge separation case is very sensitively and positively correlated with the surface charge separation level and valency of the salt ion. Particularly, the charge separation level and the salt ion valency have a synergistic effect, which makes high limit of the EPMF strength in the surface charge separation case significantly go beyond that of the ideal homogeneously charged surface counterpart at average surface charge density similar to the average surface positive or negative charge density in the charge separation case. (ii) The surface charge distribution patterns mainly influence sign of the EPMF: symmetrical and asymmetrical patterns induce repulsive and attractive (at small distances) EPMF, respectively; but with low valency salt ions and low charge separation level the opposite may be the case. With simultaneous presence of both higher valency cation and anion, the EPMF can be repulsive at intermediate distances for asymmetrical patterns. (iii) Salt ion size has a significant impact, which makes the EPMF tend to become more and more repulsive with the ion diameter regardless of the surface charge distribution patterns and the valency of the salt ion; whereas if the 1:1 type electrolyte and the symmetrical patterns are considered, then the opposite may be the case. All of these findings can be explained self-consistently from several perspectives: an excess adsorption of the salt ions (induced by the surface charge separation) serving to raise the osmotic pressure between the plates, configuration fine-tuning in the thinner ion adsorption layer driven by the energy decrease principle, direct Coulombic interactions operating between charged objects on the two face-to-face plates involved, and net charge strength in the ion adsorption layer responsible for the net electrostatic repulsion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Utility of Macroecological Rules for Microbial Biogeography

Macroecological rules have been developed for plants and animals that describe large-scale distributional patterns and attempt to explain the underlying physiological and ecological processes behind them. Similarly, microorganisms exhibit patterns in relative abundance, distribution, diversity, and traits across space and time, yet it remains unclear the extent to which microorganisms follow macroecological rules initially developed for macroorganisms. Additionally, the usefulness of these rules as a null hypothesis when surveying microorganisms has yet to be fully evaluated. With rapid advancements in sequencing technology, we have seen a recent increase in microbial studies that utilize macroecological frameworks. Here, we review and synthesize these macroecological microbial studies with two main objectives: (1) to determine to what extent macroecological rules explain the distribution of host-associated and free-living microorganisms, and (2) to understand which environmental factors and stochastic processes may explain these patterns among microbial clades (archaea, bacteria, fungi, and protists) and habitats (host-associated and free living; terrestrial and aquatic). Overall, 78% of microbial macroecology studies focused on free living, aquatic organisms. In addition, most studies examined macroecological rules at the community level with only 35% of studies surveying organismal patterns across space. At the community level microorganisms often tracked patterns of macroorganisms for island biogeography (74% confirm) but rarely followed Latitudinal Diversity Gradients (LDGs) of macroorganisms (only 32% confirm). However, when microorganisms and macroorganisms shared the same macroecological patterns, underlying environmental drivers (e.g., temperature) were the same. Because we found a lack of studies for many microbial groups and habitats, we conclude our review by outlining several outstanding questions and creating recommendations for future studies in microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Object Proxy Patterns for Accelerating Distributed Applications

Workflow and serverless frameworks have empowered new approaches to distributed application design by abstracting compute resources. However, their typically limited or one-size-fits-all support for advanced data flow patterns leaves optimization to the application programmer—optimization that becomes more difficult as data become larger. The transparent object proxy, which provides wide-area references that can resolve to data regardless of location, has been demonstrated as an effective low-level building block in such situations. Here we propose three high-level proxy-based programming patterns—distributed futures, streaming, and ownership—that make the power of the proxy pattern usable for more complex and dynamic distributed program structures. We motivate these patterns via careful review of application requirements and describe implementations of each pattern. As a result, we evaluate our implementations through a suite of benchmarks and by applying them in three meaningful scientific applications, in which we demonstrate substantial improvements in runtime, throughput, and memory usage.

Distributed Computing↗