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The Power Curve Working Group (www.pcwg.org) is an ad-hoc industry-led group to investigate the performance of wind turbines in real-world conditions. As part of ongoing experience-sharing exercises, machine learning has been proposed as a possible way to predict turbine performance. This presentation provides some background information about machine learning and how it might be implemented in the PCWG exercises.
A wind turbine power curve is often only strictly valid for a subset of all atmospheric conditions (i.e., the inner range), while wind turbines also operate in other scenarios (i.e., the outer range). Hence, modeling the power output in real-world conditions is a fundamental challenge. For example, the power deviation matrix (PDM) in Figure 1 displays an overprediction of power production using a reference power curve when wind speed (WS) and turbulence intensity (TI) are both low. Many experts use the PDM approach to observe any systematic bias in power curves and correct this in energy yield models. The mission of the Power Curve Working Group (PCWG) is to bring together wind industry stakeholders to help identify, validate, and develop ways to improve modeling of wind turbine performance in all atmospheric conditions.