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At least 19 records

NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario

The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.

Asteroid deflection

Climatology of Cloud‐Land‐Surface Coupling Across Different ARM Sites

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in the evolution and formation of low-level clouds. The different states of coupling between low-level clouds and the surface are uncertain, primarily over continental regions, where complex thermodynamics complicates their investigation. This study uses observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility to explore cloud-surface coupling and perform a climatological analysis of this interaction in five countries across three continents. The results reveal consistent coupling thresholds and average percentages across the five sites, with coupled clouds accounting for 66% of the cases and decoupled clouds for 34%. Thermodynamic and dynamic evaluations show distinct differences between coupled and decoupled clouds. Coupled clouds are characterized by humid environments, in which vertical motions connect the surface and lower atmosphere to the cloud base, conditions that favor the formation of boundary layer clouds. Decoupled clouds prefer to occur in a drier and colder environment with vertical motions inside the boundary layer being detached from the cloud base, under which boundary layer clouds are hard to form. Coupled clouds peak during warmer hours and seasons, and vice versa for decoupled clouds. This study underscores the complexity of cloud-land-surface interactions and paves the way for further investigations into cloud formation and evolution under different atmospheric environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

High-resolution analysis of clay minerals and amorphous materials in martian analog environments

Mudrocks and mud-sized sediments (i.e., silt to clay) dominate the surface of Earth and Mars. These fine-grained sediments preserve a rich history of sedimentary processes from source to sink and shed light on ancient climates. However, both the physical and chemical nature of these materials make them difficult to fully characterize with traditional laboratory techniques. Here, we explore a cross-disciplinary and high-resolution approach using synchrotron radiation for X-ray diffraction, pair distribution function analysis, and submicrometer-scale X-ray fluorescence, combined with transmission electron microscopy, to better understand the nanostructure and composition of mud-sized sediments from a glacio-fluvial watershed in southwest Iceland. Our results demonstrate that sediments in the cold and wet climate of Iceland are more altered than previously thought, as evidenced by the identification of kaolinite and mixed-layer kaolinite-smectite. Additionally, sediments are enriched in amorphous materials and nanocrystalline phases, as determined from grain morphologies and compositions consistent with allophane, hisingerite, ferrihydrite, and halloysite. These alteration products are present as intimate mixtures that vary across depositional sites, demonstrating the dynamic nature of the secondary assemblage from source to sink. This work has implications for Mars, where, for example, basalt-sourced sedimentary rocks from Gale crater are abundant in clay minerals and amorphous materials. Finally, this work underpins the importance of using high-resolution techniques, a coordinated methodology, and developing innovative approaches for future planetary sample return missions (e.g., Mars sample return).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Revealing the Moon's Taurus‐Littrow Landslide via Integrated Analysis of Pristine Apollo 17 Soil Core 73001/2

The “light mantle” deposit at the base of South Massif in the Moon's Taurus‐Littrow Valley was a primary science target for the Apollo 17 exploration. The possibility that it was a landslide triggered by ejecta from Tycho Crater is critical for establishing the age of Tycho and constraining recent lunar impact chronology; however, the mechanism of emplacement of the deposit has recently been questioned. The newly opened 73001/73002 double drive tube from Station 3 sampled 70.6 cm deep into the regolith and represents the first stratigraphic section of an extraterrestrial landslide deposit returned to Earth. Here we provide an overview of the stratigraphy of the 73001/73002 core based on top to bottom variations revealed by coordinated laboratory analyses and explore constraints on the emplacement of the light mantle deposit. Briefly, the upper ∼10 cm of 73002 contains a disturbed zone from space weathering and emplacement of ejecta from a nearby crater that excavated and ejected basaltic material. Below 10 cm is a nearly uniform unit of immature regolith. These data support a single event for the emplacement of the deposit at this location, followed by weathering and mixing of materials from nearby crater ejecta in the upper 10 cm. Slight variations in chemistry and clast components may reflect the relative stratigraphy of the South Massif slope, with material toward the bottom of 73001 originating from lower slopes and material from higher up in the core representing regolith from higher up the South Massif slopes.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Remote sensing of planetary boundary layer from ground and space: Structure, thermodynamics, and boundary layer clouds

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a critical interface between Earth's surface and atmosphere, influencing atmospheric convection, weather patterns, and air quality. Recognized by the 2017 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Earth Science Decadal Survey as an Incubation Targeted Observable, high-quality and effective observation of the PBL has become a priority. This paper reviews surface-based and satellite remote sensing techniques for characterizing PBL features, including PBL height (PBLH), boundary layer thermodynamics, turbulence, and boundary layer clouds (BLCs). These elements are treated as interconnected aspects of the PBL system, while recognizing that different instruments retrieve different physical manifestations of the PBL. The review summarizes recent advances and limitations in Micro-Pulse Lidar (MPL), Doppler lidar, Raman lidar, Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL), ceilometers, wind profilers, GNSS Radio Occultation, radar, and hyperspectral sounders. These observations help trace dynamic processes within the PBL and link PBL structure to broader weather and climate processes. The review also highlights persistent observational gaps over oceans, remote land, and polar regions, where continuous surface-based profiling is sparse. By comparing instrument capabilities, practical limitations, and interpretation issues, this review emphasizes the need for integrated remote sensing approaches and careful definition of the retrieved PBL quantities.

Boundary layer clouds

A Study of Slow-mode Shocks in the Near-Earth Magnetotail with MMS Observations and Hybrid Simulations

The structure of the magnetic reconnection boundary, particularly the presence of slow-mode shocks in the near-Earth magnetotail was studied by using magnetospheric multiscale (MMS) observations and 2.5D hybrid simulations. A total of 51 crossings of MMS from 2017 to 2021 were analyzed. We found that the detection percentage of slow-mode shocks in the near-Earth magnetotail is 41%–55%. Previous studies have only reported one slow-mode shock event in the near-Earth magnetotail and a slow-mode shock detection percentage of 10% or lower in the mid-to-distant magnetotail. It was observed that if the high-energy beam region data is removed from the slow-mode shock downstream observations then the detection of slow-mode shocks reduces, implying that the kinetic effects play an important role in the detection of slow-mode shocks. For the crossings where the interface was not identified as a slow-mode shock, it was found that the turbulence in those crossings can change the mass flux values and disrupt the detection of slow-mode shock. However, the macroscopic slow-mode shock-like structure stably exists around the magnetic reconnection interface, as most of the conditions for slow-mode shocks were satisfied. This result suggests that slow-mode shocks are a general feature of magnetic reconnection geometry. We find that the lack of detection of slow-mode shocks in previous observations and simulations can be explained by taking into account the kinetic structure of slow-mode shocks and the presence of turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulating the Impact of Stellar Photospheric Heterogeneity and Its Correction

Stellar photospheric heterogeneity is a dominant astrophysical systematic impacting exoplanet transmission spectroscopy. NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission is designed to address this challenge through contemporaneous visible-band photometry and near-infrared spectroscopy of exoplanet host stars. Here, we present an end-to-end simulation study quantifying Pandora’s ability to infer stellar photospheric properties and correct stellar contamination using out-of-transit observations. We construct eight representative stellar activity scenarios and generate 160 simulated Pandora datasets, incorporating time-dependent stellar spectra, instrument response, and noise. Given accurate models, Bayesian retrievals of joint visible photometry (0.4–0.7 μm) and near-infrared spectroscopy (0.9–1.6 μm, R ≈ 120) recover photospheric temperatures with typical uncertainties of ≈30 K, with no significant bias. Models with two spectral components (i.e., a quiescent photosphere and spots) are strongly favored in 95% of cases; one-component models are preferred when true spot filling factors fall below a detection threshold of ≈0.3%. We propagate the true and inferred stellar parameters to compute true, inferred, and residual contamination signals under physically motivated spot geometries. For simple spot distributions, contamination signals of 10 2 –10 3 ppm are reduced to ≲10 ppm—well below Pandora’s expected transmission spectroscopy precision (30–100 ppm). For more complex spot distributions, geometric degeneracies limit deterministic corrections, leaving residual contamination at the 10 3 ppm level that must be mitigated using additional constraints, such as spot-crossing events and joint stellar–planetary retrievals of transmission spectra. These results define regimes in which stellar contamination can be corrected from stellar observations alone and show how Pandora stellar observations can identify cases where additional information is required.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics

A Comprehensive Framework for Assessing Terrestrial Analogue Field Sites for Ocean Worlds

Field studies at terrestrial analogue sites represent an important contribution to the science of ocean worlds. The value of the science and technology investigations conducted at field analogue sites depends on the relevance of the analogue environment to the target ocean world. We accept that there are no perfect analogues for many of the unique environments represented by ocean worlds but suggest that a one‐to‐one matching of environmental characteristics and conditions is not crucial to the success or impact of the work. Instead, we must determine which processes and parameters are required to map directly to the target ocean world environment with high fidelity to address the science question. In this review paper, we discuss the outcomes of a workshop aimed at developing a new framework for evaluating the suitability of analogue field locations for ocean worlds research. Here we present a two‐step approach to (a) identify the most crucial processes and parameters associated with a given science question and (b) assess the fidelity of these processes and parameters at a proposed field site to those expected for the target ocean world. We demonstrate this approach in a test case evaluating three types of ocean world analogue environments with respect to a science question. The consensus document presented here equips veteran and new investigators with valuable tools to better assess and justify their analogue site selections.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Multi‐Species Energy‐Banded Ions in the Ionosphere During the 21 January 2005 Magnetic Storm: Low‐Altitude Edge of the Warm Plasma Cloak

During the 21–22 January 2005 magnetic storm, the FAST satellite observed warm (< few keV) ions in discrete energy bands on the dayside at ∼3,000 km altitude for more than 6.5 hr. We suggest that the ionospheric energy-banded ions represent the low-altitude edge of the warm plasma cloak observed simultaneously by magnetospheric satellites. This is a clear example of the multi-species ion energy bands (10 eV to several keV) observed during strong magnetic storms by the FAST satellite, stretching from the diffuse auroral region to the plasmapause with lifetimes up to 12 hr. The close association of these energy-banded ions with magnetic storms, their broad latitudinal extent, and the presence of multiple ion species in the same energy band, rather than at the same velocity, indicate that this is a distinct phenomenon from other types of energy-banded ions. During the 21–22 January 2005 magnetic storm, the dayside ion energy band structures, centered at 10 eV (H + ), 40 eV (H + and He + ), and 160 eV (H + , He + , and O + ), were consistent with a “time-of-flight and velocity filter” formation process acting on a near-cusp, impulsive outflow of a <200 eV multi-species ion-source population, poleward and in the same hemisphere as FAST. Understanding the sources and dynamics of warm energy-banded ions and their linkage to the warm plasma cloak is important because during superstorms these ions are transported to L values as low as L ∼ 1.2 in the dawn sector, significantly altering the energetics of the mid-latitude ionosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES

WHYMSIE-SGP Field Campaign Report

Through a partnership between the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this field campaign demonstrated first-of-its-kind hyperspectral microwave airborne measurements (Conical Scanning Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer [CoSMIR-H]). It was complemented by other passive (infrared, visible) and active (lidar) sensors onboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft. Serving as a future NASA planetary boundary-layer (PBL) mission prototype, the Westcoast and Heartland Hyperspectral Microwave Intensive Experiment (WH 2 yMSIE, formerly WHyMSIE) aimed to capture a wide variety of thermodynamic, moisture, and PBL regimes across a variety of surface types. The intensive operating period of the campaign spanned from October 22, 2024, through November 15, 2024, and included a large network of collaborators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection

High-speed Boulders and the Debris Field in DART Ejecta

On 2022 September 26 the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft collided with Dimorphos, the moon of the near-Earth asteroid 65803 Didymos, in a full-scale demonstration of a kinetic impactor concept. The companion Light Italian Cubesat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube) spacecraft documented the aftermath, capturing images of the expansion and evolution of the ejecta from 29 to 243 s after the impact. We present results from our analyses of these observations, including an improved reduction of the data and new absolute calibration, an updated LICIACube trajectory, and a detailed description of the events and phenomena that were recorded throughout the flyby. One notable aspect of the ejecta was the existence of clusters of boulders, up to 3.6 m in radius, that were ejected at speeds of up to 52 m s −1 . Our analysis of the spatial distribution of 104 of these boulders suggests that they are likely the remnants of larger boulders shattered by the DART spacecraft in the first stages of the impact. The amount of momentum contained in these boulders is more than 3 times that of the DART spacecraft, and it is directed primarily to the south, almost perpendicular to the DART trajectory. Recoil of Dimorphos from the ejection of these boulders has the potential to change its orbital plane by up to a degree and to impart a non-principal-axis component to its rotation state. Damping timescales for these phenomena are such that the Hera spacecraft, arriving at the system in 2026, should be able to measure these effects.

asteroid dynamics

Studying Aerosol, Clouds, and Air Quality in the Coastal Urban Environment of Southeastern Texas

A multi-agency succession of field campaigns was conducted in southeastern Texas during July 2021 through October 2022 to study the complex interactions of aerosols, clouds and air pollution in the coastal urban environment. As part of the Tracking Aerosol Convection interactions Experiment (TRACER), the TRACER- Air Quality (TAQ) campaign the Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) and the Convective Cloud Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (CUBE), a combination of ground-based supersites and mobile laboratories, shipborne measurements and aircraft-based instrumentation were deployed. These diverse platforms collected high-resolution data to characterize the aerosol microphysics and chemistry, cloud and precipitation micro- and macro-physical properties, environmental thermodynamics and air quality-relevant constituents that are being used in follow-on analysis and modeling activities. We present the overall deployment setups, a summary of the campaign conditions and a sampling of early research results related to: (a) aerosol precursors in the urban environment, (b) influences of local meteorology on air pollution, (c) detailed observations of the sea breeze circulation, (d) retrieved supersaturation in convective updrafts, (e) characterizing the convective updraft lifecycle, (f) variability in lightning characteristics of convective storms and (g) urban influences on surface energy fluxes. The work concludes with discussion of future research activities highlighted by the TRACER model-intercomparison project to explore the representation of aerosol-convective interactions in high-resolution simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Constraining the Aerosol Effects on Deep Convective Clouds by Considering the Coupling Between Clouds and the Planetary Boundary Layer

Several mechanisms have been proposed for the aerosol invigoration effect. Although their principles are well established, their actual magnitudes and roles in cloud development remain uncertain and debatable. This uncertainty partly stems from observational-based studies, in which it has been challenging to separate the co-variability between aerosols and meteorology. Addressing this problem requires large data samples. To this end, this study employs the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement data set expanding to 16 years (some up to 17 years, compared to 10 years in previous work) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. It also conducts a more careful and rigorous analysis to isolate the influences of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and synoptic patterns to address a previously raised concern. We incorporated a new key process affecting aerosol-cloud interaction: cloud-surface coupling. The state/degree of the coupling relationship turns out to play an important role in the invigoration effect. Our analysis reinforces earlier findings of a robust positive relationship between cloud thickness and aerosol loading across CAPE percentiles—but only under cloud-surface coupled conditions. The increase in cloud thickness with aerosol loading is most pronounced in coupled clouds with high CAPE and bases below 1 km. Coupled clouds with bases below 1 km thicken between 1 and 4 km, depending on the CAPE percentile. Decoupled clouds show no such systematic changes. Synoptic patterns also lead to different strengths of the invigoration effect. Clean and polluted air masses are predominantly associated with northerly and southerly winds, respectively, with a stronger invigoration effect in cleaner air masses.

Geosciences