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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Electricity Demand Evolution Driven by Storm Motivated Population Movement

Managing the risks posed by climate change to energy production and delivery is a challenge for communities worldwide. Sea Level rise and increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to sea surface temperature rise force populations to move locations, resulting in changing patterns of demand for infrastructure services. Thus, Infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers while some parts of the network are underused, and these changes will create emerging vulnerabilities. Combining climate predictions and agent based population movement models shows promise for exploring the universe of these future population distributions and changes in coastal infrastructure configurations. In this work, we created a prototype agent based population distribution model and developed a methodology to establish utility functions that provide insight about new infrastructure vulnerabilities that might result from these patterns. Combining climate and weather data, engineering algorithms and social theory, we use the new Department of Energy (DOE) Connected Infrastructure Dynamics Models (CIDM) to examine electricity demand response to increased temperatures, population relocation in response to extreme cyclonic events, consequent net population changes and new regional patterns in electricity demand. This work suggests that the importance of established evacuation routes that move large populations repeatedly through convergence points as an indicator may be under recognized.

Allen, Melissa R↗
DOE OSTI2014

Perspective: The Climate-Population-Infrastructure Modeling and Simulation Fertile Area for New Research

Managing the risks posed by climate change and extreme weather to energy production and delivery is a challenge to communities worldwide. As climate conditions change, populations will shift, and demand will re-locate; and networked infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers, and, hopefully, minimize vulnerability to natural disaster. Climate effects such as sea level rise, increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters, force populations to move locations. Displaced population creates new demand for built infrastructure that in turn generates new economic activity that attracts new workers and associated households to the new locations. Infrastructures and their interdependencies will change in reaction to climate drivers as the networks expand into new population areas and as portions of the networks are abandoned as people leave. Thus, infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers while some parts of the network are underused, and these changes will create emerging vulnerabilities. Forecasting the location of these vulnerabilities by combining climate predictions and agent based population movement models shows promise for defining these future population distributions and changes in coastal infrastructure configurations. By combining climate and weather data, engineering algorithms and social theory it has been only recently possible to examine electricity demand response to increased climactic temperatures, population relocation in response to extreme cyclonic events, consequent net population changes and new regional patterns in electricity demand. These emerging results suggest a research agenda of coupling these disparate modelling approaches to understand the implications of climate change for protecting the nation s critical infrastructure.

Climate↗
DOE OSTI2017

Economic Losses From a Fire in a Dense-Packed U.S. Spent Fuel Pool

In 2013, the staff of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission estimated the reduction of the off-site economic losses from a fire in a drained U.S. spent fuel pool if fuel that had cooled for more than five years were transferred to dry cask storage—an option it called “expedited transfer.” In this article, it is shown that the savings would be much higher than the NRC estimated. Savings increase to about $2 trillion if: losses beyond 50 miles are included; the land-contamination threshold for long-term population relocation is changed to that used for the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents and recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; and, based on the experience of Japan, decontamination of land areas to levels acceptable for population return is assumed to take at least four years. If expedited transfer were implemented, the off-site economic losses would be reduced by about 98%.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology)

The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Integrating Multiscale Datasets for Monitoring Air Dose Rates in Fukushima - 18437

Six years has passed since the radionuclide release occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. Measurements and monitoring of air dose rates (i.e., ambient dose equivalent rates) in the region around the Fukushima Daiichi NPP have been performed continuously since the accident. Such mapping efforts are essential to protect the public, to guide decontamination efforts, and to plan the return of evacuated residents. An extensive monitoring program has enabled to develop a data-driven environmental decay model for describing and predicting the decay of radiation air dose rates in the environment. However, it has been difficult to quantify the heterogeneity of environmental decay in the regional scale, since spatially extensive airborne survey datasets often have discrepancy with the ground-based measurements and have a larger uncertainty. Recently, a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach was developed to integrate multiscale datasets (i.e., car, walk and airborne surveys), and also to estimate the spatial distribution of air dose rates in high resolution over space. The integrated air dose rate maps have been contributed to planning of the future decontamination and resident's return as well as associated cost. In this study, we aim to extend this approach and predict the area of the evacuation zone in the future. WE coupled the integrated map with the data-driven ecological decay model. Results show that the area of vacuation zone (i.e., the area above 3.8 micro-Sv/yr) will shrink significantly in the next twenty years, and it will be fully contained in the non-residential forested area by 2040. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Waif Gopher Tortoise Survival and Site Fidelity Following Translocation

Gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) are among the most commonly translocated reptiles. While there are risks associated with any translocation, waif tortoises— animals frequently of unknown origin that have been displaced from the wild and often held in human possession for various reasons and durations—are generally excluded from translocation projects due to heightened concerns of introducing pathogens and uncertainty about the post-release survival of these individuals. If these risks could be managed, waif tortoises could have conservation value, as they can provide the needed numbers to stabilize populations. In the early 1990s, the discovery of an isolated population of gopher tortoises (≤15 individuals) near Aiken, South Carolina, USA, prioritized establishment of the Aiken Gopher Tortoise Heritage Preserve (AGTHP). Due to the population’s need for augmentation and the site’s isolation from other tortoise populations, the AGTHP provided the opportunity to evaluate the post-release survival of translocated waif tortoises without compromising a viable population. Since 2006, >260 waif tortoises have been introduced to the preserve. Using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber modeling framework to analyze release records and capture histories from trapping efforts in 2017 and 2018, we estimated the long-term apparent survival and site fidelity of this population composed largely of waif tortoises. We estimated annual apparent survival probabilities to be high (≥0.90) for subadult, adult male, and adult female tortoises, and these rates were similar to those reported for wild-to-wild translocated gopher tortoises and those from unmanipulated populations. Of the tortoises recaptured within the boundaries of the preserve, 75% were located within 400 m of their release location. Furthermore, these results suggest that waif tortoises could be an important resource in reducing the extirpation risk of isolated populations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Movement Patterns of the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd on Hanford for Calendar Years 2019-2024

Biologists first documented elk on the Hanford Site in 1972; since then, the elk herd known as the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd (RHEH) has grown substantially (PNNL-13331, Population Characteristics and Seasonal Movement Patterns of the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd: Status Report 2000). Through the 1990s, the core range of the RHEH was focused on the portion of the Hanford Reach National Monument known as the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Lands Ecology (ALE) Reserve. More recently, larger numbers of elk have been occupying the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Hanford Field Office (HFO), formerly the DOE, Richland Operations Office managed portion- of the Hanford Site, known as central Hanford (Figure 1-1). This began with bachelor groups of bulls occupying the site intermittently, and the herd has grown to resident herds, including bulls, cows, and calves. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) established a target herd size for the RHEH of less than 350 animals to minimize damages on adjacent private agricultural lands (Washington State Elk Herd Plan–Yakima Elk Herd [WDFW 2002]). Attempts to control the RHEH population through hunting on private lands and a relocation effort during 2000 have failed to limit growth of the population toward the WDFW target, and the herd exceeds 1,600 according to recent counts (PNNL-13331; DOE/RL- 2023-20, Hanford Annual Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2022). Although elk are present on central Hanford year-round, they continue to move between areas offsite, the ALE Reserve, and central Hanford throughout the year, and it is these movements that result in many of the elk-vehicle collisions (EVC) that occur along Hanford Site roads and on the Washington State highways bordering the site. In addition, changes in management strategies on the ALE Reserve, including recent and potential future tribal elk hunts, may alter herd behavior and result in additional animals transiting onto and off central Hanford.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Repositioning Method for Shared Autonomous Vehicles Operation

Shared fully-automated, or autonomous, mobility (SAVs) is anticipated to be the likely choice for future urban travel. SAVs boast many operational benefits but will add congestion in the form of unoccupied miles. The fleet's success further depends on service measures like the wait times for pickup trips. Agent-based simulation tools have closely looked at SAV operations but typically lack the integration between the supply and demand sides when simulating a population at scale. This paper focuses on the impact of SAV relocation on traveler wait times using a novel algorithm for repositioning. POLARIS, an agent-based tool, is used for a case study of Bloomington, Illinois to quantify the benefits of allowing SAV repositioning. On average, the wait times were lower with repositioning for all adequate fleet sizes. SAVs were available more uniformly across the region's zones, and proportional to trip-making at different times of day. In addition, with repositioning enable a higher share of demands were served. Finally, the increase in empty fleet miles from SAV repositioning may be justified with more trips being served, and an overall improvement in SAV wait times. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Agent-Based Simulation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of surface diffusion in formation of unique reactivity for graphite oxidation: Time-resolved measurements in a pulsed diffusion reactor

Quantification of oxidation kinetics is essential to develop graphitic materials for diverse applications: from refractories found in gas-cooled nuclear reactors to catalysts needed for chemical manufacturing. In this work, using well-defined highly oriented pyrolytic graphite, low-pressure isotopic transient experiments combined with controlled annealing periods, we resolve the role of surface diffusion and quantify oxidation kinetics with nanomole-precision. We observe an unexpected increase in reactivity following annealing which is explained by the role of surface diffusion increasing the probability for trapping mobile oxygen at more reactive edge sites. Here, the locus of adsorption and spillover to the basal plane is distinct from the trapping location creating a more active oxygen species. Isotopic products reflect the population dynamics of oxygen added at the edge and surface diffusion that relocates basal plane oxygen to more reactive edge sites. Since this process proceeds in parallel with direct oxidation reactions, it is not likely to be observed using steady-state or conventional ‘bulk’ characterization techniques. Our unique time-resolved non-equilibrium measurement in a well-defined transport regime, enables observation of three distinct behaviors: short-term deactivation due to the balance of rates in oxygen supply/product formation, reactivity increases due to surface diffusion and longer-term reactivity increase with oxygen accumulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Caspian Tern Management to Increase Survival of Juvenile Salmonids in the Columbia River Basin: Progress and Adaptive Management Considerations

Abstract Predation by Caspian terns Hydroprogne caspia is a factor limiting the recovery of some Endangered Species Act-listed populations of salmonids from the Columbia River basin, especially steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss. This prompted the development and implementation of two separate management plans, one in the Columbia River estuary and the other in the Columbia Plateau region, to reduce the impact of Caspian tern predation on smolt survival. Caspian terns nesting at managed breeding colonies within the basin were relocated to alternative nesting islands created for terns outside the basin. Both plans were successful in significantly reducing smolt losses to Caspian terns nesting at managed sites; however, new developments have led to regression in smolt survival gains associated with tern management. Adaptive management to prevent terns at managed colonies from relocating to nest elsewhere in the basin and to improve nesting opportunities for Caspian terns outside the basin are needed to maximize the survival benefits to Endangered Species Act-listed salmonids from management. Adaptive management is also necessary to ensure the long-term viability of the Pacific Flyway population of Caspian terns, whose breeding population has declined by more than 50% since the two management plans were implemented.

Collis, Ken↗
DOE OSTI2023

ATM–dependent phosphorylation of CHD7 regulates morphogenesis-coupled DSB stress response in fetal radiation exposure

Following radiation exposure, unrepaired DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) persist to some extent in a subset of cells as residual damage; they can exert adverse effects, including late-onset diseases. In search of the factor(s) that characterize(s) cells bearing such damage, we discovered ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM)-dependent phosphorylation of the transcription factor chromodomain helicase DNA binding protein 7 (CHD7). CHD7 controls the morphogenesis of cell populations derived from neural crest cells during vertebrate early development. Indeed, malformations in various fetal bodies are attributable to CHD7 haploinsufficiency. Following radiation exposure, CHD7 becomes phosphorylated, ceases promoter/enhancer binding to target genes, and relocates to the DSB-repair protein complex, where it remains until the damage is repaired. Thus, ATM-dependent CHD7 phosphorylation appears to act as a functional switch. As such stress responses contribute to improved cell survival and canonical nonhomologous end joining, we conclude that CHD7 is involved in both morphogenetic and DSB-response functions. Thus, we propose that higher vertebrates have evolved intrinsic mechanisms underlying the morphogenesis-coupled DSB stress response. In fetal exposure, if the function of CHD7 becomes primarily shifted toward DNA repair, morphogenic activity is reduced, resulting in malformations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Re-Evaluating the Current Safety Goals

The Safety Goals adopted by the US NRC consist of two qualitative safety goals (QSGs) backed up by two quantitative health objectives (QHOs). The QHOs establish risk limits for severe accidents in terms of their radiological consequences, in particular, the average individual health risks of early fatality and latent cancers from radiation exposure of members of the public living in the vicinity of a nuclear power plant. This paper is devoted to a re-examination of the coverage of the current safety goals in evaluating the actual risk posed by nuclear power plant operation. Experience of recent Level 3 PRAs suggests that given a high likelihood of evacuation of the close-in population before any release occurs, the current QHOs are satisfied by large margins. However, the experience of an actual severe accident at Fukushima showed that actual human health effects from released radiation were not the dominant consequences; there were no early fatalities and no measurable increases expected in cancer rates above the baseline rates in the Japanese population. Hence, regardless of accident probability, Fukushima-type accidents would satisfy the NRC’s health-related safety goals. However, there were very significant societal costs, in that large numbers of people were relocated for long periods. We argue that, in addition to the risks addressed in current safety goals, societal risk should also be evaluated. The paper discusses specific possibilities for a goal and an associated quantitative objective.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Structural Basis for Small G Protein Effector Interaction of Ras-related Protein 1 (Rap1) and Adaptor Protein Krev Interaction Trapped 1 (KRIT1)

Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) affect 0.1-0.5% of the population resulting in leaky vasculature and severe neurological defects. KRIT1 (Krev interaction trapped-1) mutations associate with {approx}40% of familial CCMs. KRIT1 is an effector of Ras-related protein 1 (Rap1) GTPase. Rap1 relocalizes KRIT1 from microtubules to cell membranes to impact integrin activation, potentially important for CCM pathology. We report the 1.95 {angstrom} co-crystal structure of KRIT1 FERM domain in complex with Rap1. Rap1-KRIT1 interaction encompasses an extended surface, including Rap1 Switch I and II and KRIT1 FERM F1 and F2 lobes. Rap1 binds KRIT1-F1 lobe using a GTPase-ubiquitin-like fold interaction but binds KRIT1-F2 lobe by a novel interaction. Point mutagenesis confirms the interaction. High similarity between KRIT1-F2/F3 and talin is revealed. Additionally, the mechanism for FERM domains acting as GTPase effectors is suggested. Finally, structure-based alignment of each lobe suggests classification of FERM domains as ERM-like and TMFK-like (talin-myosin-FAK-KRIT-like) and that FERM lobes resemble domain 'modules.'

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Status of Mechanistic Fission Gas Model in High-Burnup Fuel

A desire to increase fuel burnup to decrease the cost of nuclear power plants has led to significant interest within the nuclear industry to develop improved understanding of high-burnup nuclear fuel microstructure and the potential for fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal that contribute to burnup and safe operating limits. This milestone report describes joint research activities and program planning to develop mechanistic models for high-burnup UO 2 microstructure, including both intra- and intergranular gas bubble populations and fission gas release, specifically associated with transient release. This model development is being extensively leveraged against a rapidly growing experimental database of high-fidelity electron microscopy characterization of commercial, light water reactor fuel in the as-irradiated condition as well as that following simulated loss-of-coolant test conditions. This report describes the status of model development, highlights recent microstructural data, and summarizes the data needs to complete initial development and experimental validation of mechanistic models of fission gas and microstructural evolution at high burnup, as well as transient fission gas release.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Kinematics of the 2015 San Ramon, California earthquake swarm: Implications for fault zone structure and driving mechanisms

Earthquake swarms represent a sudden increase in seismicity that may indicate a heterogeneous fault-zone, the involvement of crustal fluids and/or slow fault slip. Swarms sometimes precede major earthquake ruptures. An earthquake swarm occurred in October 2015 near San Ramon, California in an extensional right step-over region between the northern Calaveras Fault and the Concord–Mt. Diablo fault zone, which has hosted ten major swarms since 1970. The 2015 San Ramon swarm is examined here from 11 October through 18 November using template matching analysis. The relocated seismicity catalog contains ~4000 events with magnitudes between -0.2 < M d < 3.6. The swarm illuminated three sub-parallel, southwest striking and northwest dipping fault segments of km-scale dimension and thickness of up to 200 m. The segments contain coexisting populations of different focal-mechanisms, suggesting a complex fault zone structure with several sets of en échelon fault orientations. The migration of events along the three planar structures indicates a complex fluid and faulting interaction processes. We searched for correlations between seismic activity and tidal stresses and found some suggestive features, but nothing that we can be confident is statistically significant.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Residential Mobility and Lung Cancer Risk: Data-Driven Exploration Using Internet Sources

Frequent relocation has been linked to health decline, particularly with respect to emotional and psychological wellbeing. In this paper we investigate whether there is an association between frequent relocation and lung cancer risk. For the initial investigation we leverage two online data sources to collect cancer and control subjects using web crawling and tailored text mining. The two data sources share different strengths and weaknesses in terms of the amount of detail, population representation, and sample size. One data source includes online obituaries. The second data source includes augmented LinkedIn profiles. For each data source, the subjects spatiotemporal history is reconstructed from the available information provided in the obituaries and from the education and work experience provided in the LinkedIn profiles. The study shows that lung cancer subjects have higher mobility frequency than the control group. This trend is consistent for both data sources.

Yoon, Hong-Jun↗
DOE OSTI2022

ShupeTurner cloud microphysics

This product is the ShupeTurner cloud microphysics product derived for the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic. The product includes time-height derivations of the cloud type (phase type) and the condensed water content and characteristic effective particle size for liquid and ice hydrometeor populations. Additionally, it includes the vertical integral of the condensed water content for liquid and ice, i.e., the liquid water path and ice water path. These are derived using a combination of sensors, including: cloud radar, depolarization lidar, microwave radiometer, ceilometer, and radiosondes. During MOSAiC, these sensors were installed and operated onboard the Polarstern icebreaker while within the Arctic sea ice. Most data were obtained while Polarstern was moored to the MOSAiC sea ice floe, passively drifting through the Arctic. However, the data from 16 May 2020 - 17 June 2020 and 31 July 2020 - 21 August 2020 were obtained while Polarstern was underway transiting through the sea ice during relocations of the expedition. General details of the retrieval algorithm, its application, and uncertainties are provided in Shupe et al. (2015), with the cloud classification being described in more detail in Shupe (2007). General details about the MOSAiC expedition including instruments, locations, and meteorological context is provided in Shupe et al. (2022).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗