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9 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment

As a genre of physics-informed machine learning, differentiable process-based hydrologic models (abbreviated as δ or delta models) with regionalized deep-network-based parameterization pipelines were recently shown to provide daily streamflow prediction performance closely approaching that of state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks. Meanwhile, δ models provide a full suite of diagnostic physical variables and guaranteed mass conservation. Here, we ran experiments to test (1) their ability to extrapolate to regions far from streamflow gauges and (2) their ability to make credible predictions of long-term (decadal-scale) change trends. We evaluated the models based on daily hydrograph metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, etc.) and predicted decadal streamflow trends. For prediction in ungauged basins (PUB; randomly sampled ungauged basins representing spatial interpolation), δ models either approached or surpassed the performance of LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, depending on the meteorological forcing data used. They presented a comparable trend performance to LSTM for annual mean flow and high flow but worse trends for low flow. For prediction in ungauged regions (PUR; regional holdout test representing spatial extrapolation in a highly data-sparse scenario), δ models surpassed LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, and their advantages in mean and high flow trends became prominent. In addition, an untrained variable, evapotranspiration, retained good seasonality even for extrapolated cases. The δ models' deep-network-based parameterization pipeline produced parameter fields that maintain remarkably stable spatial patterns even in highly data-scarce scenarios, which explains their robustness. Combined with their interpretability and ability to assimilate multi-source observations, the δ models are strong candidates for regional and global-scale hydrologic simulations and climate change impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explore Spatio‐Temporal Learning of Large Sample Hydrology Using Graph Neural Networks

Abstract Streamflow forecasting over gauged and ungauged basins play a vital role in water resources planning, especially under the changing climate. Increased availability of large sample hydrology data sets, together with recent advances in deep learning techniques, has presented new opportunities to explore temporal and spatial patterns in hydrological signatures for improving streamflow forecasting. The purpose of this study is to adapt and benchmark several state‐of‐the‐art graph neural network (GNN) architectures, including ChebNet, Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), and GraphWaveNet, for end‐to‐end graph learning. We explicitly represent river basins as nodes in a graph, learn the spatiotemporal nodal dependencies, and then use the learned relations to predict streamflow simultaneously across all nodes in the graph. The efficacy of the developed GNN models is investigated using the Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large‐sample Studies (CAMELS) data set under two settings, fixed graph topology (transductive learning), and variable graph topology (inductive learning), with the latter applicable to prediction in ungauged basins (PUB). Results indicate that GNNs are generally robust and computationally efficient, achieving similar or better performance than a baseline model trained using the long short‐term memory (LSTM) network. Further analyses are conducted to interpret the graph learning process at the edge and node levels and to investigate the effect of different model configurations. We conclude that graph learning constitutes a viable machine learning‐based method for aggregating spatiotemporal information from a multitude of sources for streamflow forecasting

Sun, Alexander Y.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores current open questions in prediction in ungauged and unmonitored basins concerning top-down versus bottom-up approaches, tradeoffs between data available and input requirements, and the appropriate representation of catchment attributes as inputs to deep learning models. Modeling was done primarily with long short-term memory (LSTM) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)".Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code: - data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- error_analysis_attribute_and_groundwater_dir.zip - workflows for the extended error analysis by stream attribute and groundwater influenceData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2024streamdata, author = {Jared Willard and Fabio Ciulla and Helen Weierbach and Vipin Kumar and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models"}, year = {2024}, doi = {10.15485/2448016}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://doi.org/10.15485/2448016}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models". 2024. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing stream temperature prediction with a generalizable large-sample framework across CONUS river reaches

Accurately predicting stream temperature in ungauged basins remains a critical challenge for water resource management, thermoelectric power plant cooling, and ecosystem conservation. Large-sample machine learning models trained on hundreds of well-monitored river basins have shown remarkable performance; however, such models have yet to be developed solely using forcing data that can be readily extracted to simulate stream temperatures anywhere in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this study, we present a scalable, large-sample deep learning framework using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to simulate daily stream temperatures in ungauged basins across the CONUS. The framework leverages both modeled reanalysis of meteorological and streamflow inputs as well as static attributes available for all 2.7 million CONUS river reaches in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlusV2). By generating dynamical inputs from predefined thermally relevant upstream contributing areas, rather than the entire upstream basin, the model also offers improvements in very large basins where full-basin averaging can dilute the most important influences on stream temperature. Evaluated across 300 basins, the model achieves a median Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.1 °C and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.95 on temporally and spatially distinct test folds—comparable to models trained exclusively using meteorological and streamflow observational data. The flexible, high-performing framework generalizes to any unmonitored river reach without significant regulation or unnatural thermal input immediately upstream, substantially expanding predictive capabilities in data-scarce regions.

Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrologic Regionalization under Data Scarcity: Implications for Streamflow Prediction

Continuous streamflow prediction is crucial in many applications of water resources planning and management. However, streamflow prediction is challenging, particularly in data-scarce regions. Here, we demonstrate an approach to regionalize the flow duration curve for predicting daily streamflow in the data-scare region of the central Himalayas. We developed a regression-based model to estimate streamflow at various segments of a flow duration curve by incorporating basin characteristics and climate variables. This study analyzes the sensitivities of proximity and characteristics between the donor (gauged) and receptor (ungauged) basins for time-series streamflow prediction. Our results show that regionalization techniques perform better in low to medium flows over high flows. Our findings are significant in the central Himalayan regional context to inform operational and management decisions in water sector projects like hydropower plants, which generally rely on low-to-medium streamflow information. Although the quantitative results are region-specific, the approach and insights are generalizable to the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High‐Resolution National‐Scale Water Modeling Is Enhanced by Multiscale Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Abstract The National Water Model (NWM) is a key tool for flood forecasting, planning, and water management. Key challenges facing the NWM include calibration and parameter regionalization when confronted with big data. We present two novel versions of high‐resolution (∼37 km 2 ) differentiable models (a type of hybrid model): one with implicit, unit‐hydrograph‐style routing and another with explicit Muskingum‐Cunge routing in the river network. The former predicts streamflow at basin outlets whereas the latter presents a discretized product that seamlessly covers rivers in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Both versions use neural networks to provide a multiscale parameterization and process‐based equations to provide a structural backbone, which were trained simultaneously (“end‐to‐end”) on 2,807 basins across the CONUS and evaluated on 4,997 basins. Both versions show great potential to elevate future NWM performance for extensively calibrated as well as ungauged sites: the median daily Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of all 4,997 basins is improved to around 0.68 from 0.48 of NWM3.0. As they resolve spatial heterogeneity, both versions greatly improved simulations in the western CONUS and also in the Prairie Pothole Region, a long‐standing modeling challenge. The Muskingum‐Cunge version further improved performance for basins >10,000 km 2 . Overall, our results show how neural‐network‐based parameterizations can improve NWM performance for providing operational flood predictions while maintaining interpretability and multivariate outputs. The modeling system supports the Basic Model Interface (BMI), which allows seamless integration with the next‐generation NWM. We also provide a CONUS‐scale hydrologic data set for further evaluation and use.

Song, Yalan [Civil and Environmental Engineering T↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble‐Based Spatially Distributed CLM5 Hydrological Parameter Estimation for the Continental United States

Abstract One of the major challenges in large‐domain hydrological modeling efforts lies in the estimation of spatially distributed hydrological parameters while simultaneously accounting for their associated uncertainties. Addressing this challenge is particularly difficult in ungauged locations. With growing societal demands for large‐scale streamflow projections to inform water resource management and long‐term planning, evaluating and constraining hydrological parameter uncertainty is increasingly vital. This study introduces a hybrid regionalization approach to enhance hydrological predictions of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) across the Continental United States (CONUS), with a total of 50,629 1/8° grid cells. This hybrid method combines the strengths of two existing techniques: parameter regionalization and streamflow signature regionalization. It identifies ensemble behavioral parameters for each 1/8° grid cell across the CONUS domain, tailored to three distinct streamflow signatures focused on low flows, high flows, and annual water balance. Evaluating this hybrid method for 464 CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large‐sample Studies) basins demonstrates a significant improvement in CLM5 hydrological predictions, even in challenging arid regions. In CONUS applications, the derived spatially distributed parameter sets capture both spatial continuity and variation of parameters, highlighting their heterogeneous nature within specific regions. Overall, this hybrid regionalization approach offers a promising solution to the complex task of improving hydrological modeling over large domains for important hydrological applications.

CLM5↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Streamflow Reanalysis Across the Conterminous US Leveraging Multiple Gridded Precipitation Data Sets

Streamflow observations, essential for various water resource applications, are often unavailable at critical locations in need. Although different models have been proposed to enhance streamflow predictability at ungauged locations, the challenge extends beyond model fidelity. Differences in meteorologic forcing data sets, precipitation in particular, can significantly affect the accuracy of hydrologic predictions. This challenge intensifies across regions characterized by diverse hydro-climatological and geographical conditions, such as in the conterminous US (CONUS) where a single precipitation product struggles to consistently replicate observed hydrographs, particularly peak flow dynamics. To enhance streamflow predictions, we utilize a VIC-RAPID hydrologic modeling framework driven by multiple commonly used meteorological forcing data sets, such as Daymet, PRISM, ST4, AORC, and their hybrids and create multiple sets of 40-year (1980–2019) hourly, daily, and monthly streamflow reanalysis, Dayflow Version 2, for 2.7 million river reaches across the CONUS. Most forcings lead to skillful streamflow performance, except for ST4 in the mountainous west, where severe radar blockage adversely affects the accuracy. The evaluation using over 6,000 hourly stream gauges shows that hourly AORC and ST4 lead to improved annual peak flow performance over Daymet—driven streamflow (Dayflow V1), particularly in smaller basins, highlighting the value of high temporal resolution forcings in hydrologic predictions. Compared with other benchmark data sets like National Water Model V3.0, AORC-driven VIC-RAPID exhibits improved regional streamflow performance, with comparable peak flow representation. We envision that multi-forcing streamflow reanalysis data can inform regions in need of forcing data enhancement, diagnose hydrologic model performance, and benefit diverse water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗