MULTIVARIATE WIDE-SENSE MARKOV PROCESSES AND PREDICTION THEORY
Multivariate wide-sense markov processes and prediction theory
MARKOV↗
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Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity
The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.
Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km
Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.
Schatten, K. H.↗
A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km
Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.
Schatten, K. H.↗
Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application
A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg- Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application.
Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗
Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application
A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg-Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. (The use of ISO 281:2007 with a fatigue limit in these calculations would result in a bearing life approaching infinity.) Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application. Rules had been developed to distinguish and compare predicted lives with those actually obtained. Based upon field and test results of 51 ball and roller bearing sets, 98 percent of these bearing sets had acceptable life results using the Lundberg- Palmgren equations with life adjustment factors to predict bearing life. That is, they had lives equal to or greater than that predicted. The Lundberg-Palmgren model was used to predict the life of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The life prediction was compared with the field lives of 64 gearboxes. From these results, the roller bearing lives exhibited a load-life exponent of 5.2, which correlated with the Zaretsky model. The use of the ANSI/ABMA and ISO standards load-life exponent of 10/3 to predict roller bearing life is not reflective of modern roller bearings and will underpredict bearing lives.
Life prediction↗
Investigation of the Jet Noise Prediction Theory and Application Utilizing the PAO Formulation
Application of the Phillips theory to engineering calculations of rocket and high speed jet noise radiation is reported. Presented are a detailed derivation of the theory, the composition of the numerical scheme, and discussions of the practical problems arising in the application of the present noise prediction method. The present method still contains some empirical elements, yet it provides a unified approach in the prediction of sound power, spectrum, and directivity.
Source record↗
The unified acoustic and aerodynamic prediction theory of advanced propellers in the time domain
This paper presents some numerical results for the noise of an advanced supersonic propeller based on a formulation published last year. This formulation was derived to overcome some of the practical numerical difficulties associated with other acoustic formulations. The approach is based on the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation and time domain analysis is used. To illustrate the method of solution, a model problem in three dimensions and based on the Laplace equation is solved. A brief sketch of derivation of the acoustic formula is then given. Another model problem is used to verify validity of the acoustic formulation. A recent singular integral equation for aerodynamic applications derived from the acoustic formula is also presented here.
Farassat, F.↗
Volcanic processes and landforms on Venus - Theory, predictions, and observations
The ascent and eruption of magma on Venus in the current Venusian environment is modeled, taking into account the influence of extreme surface temperatures and pressures. Comparison of present predictions with observations obtained from Pioneer Venus, Arecibo, and Venera data support a picture of regional pyroclastic deposits being very rare, magma contents not usually exceeding about 4 wt pct, and the atmospheric pressure having been about the same as the present value over a time period equivalent to the average age of the northern areas of the northern hemisphere. Data suggest that numerous eruptions had effusion rates exceeding common terrestrial rates, and that shield volcanoes are often wide, but are low relative to those on Mars and earth. Implications of the proposed Venusian reduction of the driving density contrast include dike intrusion being very common, and large minimum magma volumes being required to ensure surface eruptions.
Head, James W., III↗
Transient Growth Theory Prediction of Optimal Placing of Passive and Active Flow Control Devices for Separation Delay in LPT Airfoils
An analysis of the non-modal growth of perturbations in a boundary layer in the presence of a streamwise pressure gradient is presented. The analysis is based on PSE equations for an incompressible fluid. Examples with Falkner-Skan profiles indicate that a favorable pressure gradient decreases the non-modal growth while an unfavorable pressure gradient leads to an increase of the amplification. It is suggested that the transient growth mechanism be utilized to choose optimal parameters of tripping elements on a low-pressure turbine (LPT) airfoil. As an example, a boundary layer flow with a streamwise pressure gradient corresponding to the pressure distribution over a LPT airfoil is considered. It is shown that there is an optimal spacing of the tripping elements and that the transient growth effect depends on the starting point. At very low Reynolds numbers, there is a possibility to enhance the transient energy growth by means of wall cooling.
Tumin, Anatoli↗
A Microgravity Experiment to Test Scaling Theory Predictions Near the (sup 3)He Liquid-Gas Critical Point
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critical phenomena liquid-gas critical point↗
A Predictive Theory for Heat Transport Into Ice Shelf Cavities
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G. Finucane↗
On Theoretical Broadband Shock-Associated Noise Near-Field Cross-Spectra
The cross-spectral acoustic analogy is used to predict auto-spectra and cross-spectra of broadband shock-associated noise in the near-field and far-field from a range of heated and unheated supersonic off-design jets. A single equivalent source model is proposed for the near-field, mid-field, and far-field terms, that contains flow-field statistics of the shock wave shear layer interactions. Flow-field statistics are modeled based upon experimental observation and computational fluid dynamics solutions. An axisymmetric assumption is used to reduce the model to a closed-form equation involving a double summation over the equivalent source at each shock wave shear layer interaction. Predictions are compared with a wide variety of measurements at numerous jet Mach numbers and temperature ratios from multiple facilities. Auto-spectral predictions of broadband shock-associated noise in the near-field and far-field capture trends observed in measurement and other prediction theories. Predictions of spatial coherence of broadband shock-associated noise accurately capture the peak coherent intensity, frequency, and spectral width.
Miller, Steven A. E.↗
An approximate theory of prediction for data compression.
Prediction-comparison system for data compression, noting nonlinear error feedback and advantage of closed-loop predictor
PREDICTION THEORY↗
Orbit prediction accuracy theory
Equations for estimating orbit prediction accuracy theory, with partial derivatives calculated from two-body elliptical orbit theory
ORBIT EQUATION↗
Layered synthetic microstructures as Bragg diffractors for X rays and extreme ultraviolet - Theory and predicted performance
The theory of X-ray diffraction by periodic structures is applied to the layered synthetic microstructures (LSMs) made possible by recent developments in thin film technology, and approximate formulas for estimating their performance are presented. A more complete computation scheme based on optical multilayer theory is also described, and it is shown that the diffracting properties may be tailored to specific applications by adjusting the refractive indices and thicknesses of the component layers. The theory may be modified to take account of imperfections in the LMS structure, and the properties of nonperiodic structures thereby computed. Structures with high integrated reflectivity constructed according to the methods defined have potential application in many areas of X-ray or EUV research and instrumentation.
Underwood, J. H.↗
Experimental evaluation of a flat wake theory for predicting rotor inflow-wake velocities
The theory for predicting helicopter inflow-wake velocities called flat wake theory was correlated with several sets of experimental data. The theory was developed by V. E. Baskin of the USSR, and a computer code known as DOWN was developed at Princeton University to implement the theory. The theory treats the wake geometry as rigid without interaction between induced velocities and wake structure. The wake structure is assumed to be a flat sheet of vorticity composed of trailing elements whose strength depends on the azimuthal and radial distributions of circulation on a rotor blade. The code predicts the three orthogonal components of flow velocity in the field surrounding the rotor. The predictions can be utilized in rotor performance and helicopter real-time flight-path simulation. The predictive capability of the coded version of flat wake theory provides vertical inflow patterns similar to experimental patterns.
Wilson, John C.↗
An Integrated Theory for Predicting the Hydrothermomechanical Response of Advanced Composite Structural Components
An integrated theory is developed for predicting the hydrothermomechanical (HDTM) response of fiber composite components. The integrated theory is based on a combined theoretical and experimental investigation. In addition to predicting the HDTM response of components, the theory is structured to assess the combined hydrothermal effects on the mechanical properties of unidirectional composites loaded along the material axis and off-axis, and those of angleplied laminates. The theory developed predicts values which are in good agreement with measured data at the micromechanics, macromechanics, laminate analysis and structural analysis levels.
Chamis, C. C.↗