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Results for “PROBABILITY THEORY”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

A time-dependent wave packet approach to atom-diatom reactive collision probabilities - Theory and application to the H + H2(J = 0) system

This paper describes a new approach to the study of atom-diatom reactive collisions in three dimensions employing wave packets and the time-dependent Schroedinger equation. The method uses a projection operator approach to couple the inelastic and reactive portions of the total wave function and optical potentials to circumvent the necessity of using product arrangement coordinates. Reactive transition probabilities are calculated from the state resolved flux of the wave packet as it leaves the interaction region in the direction of the reactive arrangement channel. The present approach is used to obtain such vibrationally resolved probabilities for the three-dimensional H + H2 (J = 0) hydrogen exchange reaction, using a body-fixed system of coordinates.

Neuhauser, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2005

Predictive Game Theory

Probability theory governs the outcome of a game; there is a distribution over mixed strat.'s, not a single "equilibrium". To predict a single mixed strategy must use our loss function (external to the game's players. Provides a quantification of any strategy's rationality. Prove rationality falls as cost of computation rises (for players who have not previously interacted). All extends to games with varying numbers of players.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Applying generalized stochastic Petri nets to manufacturing systems containing nonexponential transition functions

Generalized stochastic Petri nets (GSPNs) are applied to flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs). Throughput subnets and s-transitions are presented. Two FMS examples containing nonexponential distributions which were analyzed in previous papers by queuing theory and probability theory, respectively, are treated using GSPNs developed using throughput subnets and s-transitions. The GSPN results agree with the previous results, and developing and analyzing the GSPN models are straightforward and relatively easy compared to other methodologies.

Watson, James F., III↗
NASA NTRS1984

An urnful of blinding functions

There is a fundamental connection between the mathematical theory of discrete probability distributions and the parametric curves and surfaces of computer-aided geometric design. It is no accident that the blending functions of Bezier curves and surfaces have an obvious probabilistic interpretation, nor is it a coincidence that the normalized uniform B-spline basis functions also model a simple stochastic process. The link between probability and geometry, and how to exploit simple probabilistic arguments to derive many of the classical geometric properties of the parametric curves and surfaces currently in vogue in computer-aided geometric design is discussed. This probabilistic approach is also used to introduce many new types of curves and surfaces, and it is demonstrated how probability theory can be used to simplify, unify, and generalize many well-known results.

Goldman, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Development of Fuzzy Logic and Soft Computing Methodologies

Our earlier research on computing with words (CW) has led to a new direction in fuzzy logic which points to a major enlargement of the role of natural languages in information processing, decision analysis and control. This direction is based on the methodology of computing with words and embodies a new theory which is referred to as the computational theory of perceptions (CTP). An important feature of this theory is that it can be added to any existing theory - especially to probability theory, decision analysis, and control - and enhance the ability of the theory to deal with real-world problems in which the decision-relevant information is a mixture of measurements and perceptions. The new direction is centered on an old concept - the concept of a perception - a concept which plays a central role in human cognition. The ability to reason with perceptions perceptions of time, distance, force, direction, shape, intent, likelihood, truth and other attributes of physical and mental objects - underlies the remarkable human capability to perform a wide variety of physical and mental tasks without any measurements and any computations. Everyday examples of such tasks are parking a car, driving in city traffic, cooking a meal, playing golf and summarizing a story. Perceptions are intrinsically imprecise. Imprecision of perceptions reflects the finite ability of sensory organs and ultimately, the brain, to resolve detail and store information. More concretely, perceptions are both fuzzy and granular, or, for short, f-granular. Perceptions are f-granular in the sense that: (a) the boundaries of perceived classes are not sharply defined; and (b) the elements of classes are grouped into granules, with a granule being a clump of elements drawn together by indistinguishability, similarity. proximity or functionality. F-granularity of perceptions may be viewed as a human way of achieving data compression. In large measure, scientific progress has been, and continues to be, driven by a quest to progress from perceptions to measurements. Pursuit of this aim has led to brilliant successes. But alongside the successes stand problems whose solutions are not in sight. Representative of such problems is the problem of automation of driving in city traffic. In this case, as in many others, what can be done with ease by humans - without any measurements and a computations - is an intractable task for machines.

Zadeh, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Structural Reliability Analysis and Optimization: Use of Approximations

This report is intended for the demonstration of function approximation concepts and their applicability in reliability analysis and design. Particularly, approximations in the calculation of the safety index, failure probability and structural optimization (modification of design variables) are developed. With this scope in mind, extensive details on probability theory are avoided. Definitions relevant to the stated objectives have been taken from standard text books. The idea of function approximations is to minimize the repetitive use of computationally intensive calculations by replacing them with simpler closed-form equations, which could be nonlinear. Typically, the approximations provide good accuracy around the points where they are constructed, and they need to be periodically updated to extend their utility. There are approximations in calculating the failure probability of a limit state function. The first one, which is most commonly discussed, is how the limit state is approximated at the design point. Most of the time this could be a first-order Taylor series expansion, also known as the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), or a second-order Taylor series expansion (paraboloid), also known as the Second Order Reliability Method (SORM). From the computational procedure point of view, this step comes after the design point identification; however, the order of approximation for the probability of failure calculation is discussed first, and it is denoted by either FORM or SORM. The other approximation of interest is how the design point, or the most probable failure point (MPP), is identified. For iteratively finding this point, again the limit state is approximated. The accuracy and efficiency of the approximations make the search process quite practical for analysis intensive approaches such as the finite element methods; therefore, the crux of this research is to develop excellent approximations for MPP identification and also different approximations including the higher-order reliability methods (HORM) for representing the failure surface. This report is divided into several parts to emphasize different segments of the structural reliability analysis and design. Broadly, it consists of mathematical foundations, methods and applications. Chapter I discusses the fundamental definitions of the probability theory, which are mostly available in standard text books. Probability density function descriptions relevant to this work are addressed. In Chapter 2, the concept and utility of function approximation are discussed for a general application in engineering analysis. Various forms of function representations and the latest developments in nonlinear adaptive approximations are presented with comparison studies. Research work accomplished in reliability analysis is presented in Chapter 3. First, the definition of safety index and most probable point of failure are introduced. Efficient ways of computing the safety index with a fewer number of iterations is emphasized. In chapter 4, the probability of failure prediction is presented using first-order, second-order and higher-order methods. System reliability methods are discussed in chapter 5. Chapter 6 presents optimization techniques for the modification and redistribution of structural sizes for improving the structural reliability. The report also contains several appendices on probability parameters.

Grandhi, Ramana V.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Calculation of compressible nonadiabatic boundary layers in laminar, transitional and turbulent flow by the method of integral relations

A computer program was developed to do the calculations for two-dimensional or axisymmetric configurations from low speeds to hypersonic speeds with arbitrary streamwise pressure, temperature, and Mach number distributions. Options are provided for obtaining initial conditions either from experimental information or from a theoretical similarity solution. The transition region can be described either by an arbitrary distribution of intermittency or by a function based on Emmons' probability theory. Correlations were developed for use in estimating the parameters of the theoretical intermittency function. Correlations obtained from other sources are used for estimating the transition point. Comparisons were made between calculated and measured boundary layer quantities for laminar, transitional, and turbulent flows on flat plates, cones, cone flares, and a waisted body of revolution. Excellent agreement was obtained between the present theory and two other theories based on the method of finite differences. The intermittency required to reproduce some experimental heat transfer results in hypersonic flow was found to be quite different from the theoretical function. It is suggested that the simple probability theory of Emmons may not be valid for representing the intermittency of hypersonic transitional boundary layers and that the program could be useful as a tool for detailed study of the intermittency of the transition region.

Kuhn, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Deriving Laws from Ordering Relations

It took much effort in the early days of non-Euclidean geometry to break away from the mindset that all spaces are flat and that two distinct parallel lines do not cross. Up to that point, all that was known was Euclidean geometry, and it was difficult to imagine anything else. We have suffered a similar handicap brought on by the enormous relevance of Boolean algebra to the problems of our age-logic and set theory. Previously, I demonstrated that the algebra of questions is not Boolean, but rather is described by the free distributive algebra. To get to this stage took much effort, as many obstacles-most self-placed-had to be overcome. As Boolean algebras were all I had ever known, it was almost impossible for me to imagine working with an algebra where elements do not have complements. With this realization, it became very clear that the sum and product rules of probability theory at the most basic level had absolutely nothing to do with the Boolean algebra of logical statements. Instead, a measure of degree of inclusion can be invented for many different partially ordered sets, and the sum and product rules fall out of the associativity and distributivity of the algebra. To reinforce this very important idea, this paper will go over how these constructions are made, while focusing on the underlying assumptions. I will derive the sum and product rules for a distributive lattice in general and demonstrate how this leads to probability theory on the Boolean lattice and is related to the calculus of quantum mechanical amplitudes on the partially ordered set of experimental setups. I will also discuss the rules that can be derived from modular lattices and their relevance to the cross-ratio of projective geometry.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Deriving Laws from Ordering Relations

The effect of Richard T. Cox's contribution to probability theory was to generalize Boolean implication among logical statements to degrees of implication, which are manipulated using rules derived from consistency with Boolean algebra. These rules are known as the sum rule, the product rule and Bayes Theorem, and the measure resulting from this generalization is probability. In this paper, I will describe how Cox s technique can be further generalized to include other algebras and hence other problems in science and mathematics. The result is a methodology that can be used to generalize an algebra to a calculus by relying on consistency with order theory to derive the laws of the calculus. My goals are to clear up the mysteries as to why the same basic structure found in probability theory appears in other contexts, to better understand the foundations of probability theory, and to extend these ideas to other areas by developing new mathematics and new physics. The relevance of this methodology will be demonstrated using examples from probability theory, number theory, geometry, information theory, and quantum mechanics.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Probabilistic versus fuzzy reasoning

This paper shows how to solve problems using probability theory that the fuzzy approaches claim probability cannot solve. By using the view that probabilities are a measure of belief in a proposition in a particular context, limitations imposed by the frequncy interpretations of probability are avoided. The various fuzzy approaches (fuzzy sets, fuzzy logic, possibility theory and higher order generalizations) seem to fill the gap caused by the restricted frequency interpretation. Close examination shows that the fuzzy approaches have exactly the same representation as the corresponding probabilistc approach and include similar calculi. The probabilistic approach assumes less information when the calculi differ.

Cheeseman, Peter↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST to reduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST toreduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗