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DOE OSTI2022

PV Lifetime Project (2021 NREL Annual Report)

DOE's PV Lifetime project was initiated in 2016 with the goal of accurately characterizing the early-life evolution of photovoltaic (PV) field performance. Different PV cell and module technologies result in different initial performance loss rates due to effects like light-induced degradation (LID) and light & elevated temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). To accurately characterize the initial field performance loss requires the use of high-accuracy indoor IV curve measurements at standard test conditions. Therefore, PV modules involved in this study are removed from the field once or twice per year and brought indoors for measurement. Current samples deployed and monitored in this way include Jinko Solar (2016), Trina Solar (2016), Hanwha Q-Cells (2017), Panasonic (2018), LG (2018), Canadian Solar (2018), Mission Solar (2019). More recently, modules from Sunpreme (2019), and LONGi (2020) have been deployed but not yet analyzed. Overall annual performance loss rates are as follows: our first modules to be deployed (Jinko and Trina) have annual median performance loss rate between -0.4%/yr and -0.9%/yr, mainly concentrated in the first year. The QCells mono-PERC and multi-PERC modules have an annual degradation rate of -0.76%/yr and -0.69%/yr respectively, also concentrated in the first year of operation. Panasonic and LG modules displayed negligible performance loss in the past two years, at 0.1%/yr and -0.0%/yr respectively. They also were the only modules with initial IV curve measurements consistently above the nameplate rating. Possibly relatedly, these are also the only two N-type silicon module types analyzed so far. Canadian Solar multi-PERC modules demonstrated a -1.3%/yr degradation rate which actually accelerated in the past year, so this will be a module type to monitor in future years. Mission Solar modules exhibited strong recoverable performance loss, consistent with LeTID susceptibility. (The same is true for the Jinko JKM260 module type). Annual performance loss actually showed improvement in time at +0.3%/yr after 2 years in the field, although the module initially was measured at 3% below nameplate rating. These modules could therefore be experiencing a form of post-LeTID recovery. Initial measurements have been conducted on the next two module types - Sunpreme n-HIT and LONGi bifacial mono-PERC. We will report on initial year-1 performance change for these modules in the next PV Lifetime annual report. For the remaining modules, an additional year of field exposure will provide greater certainty in annual degradation rates, particularly for those with degradation concentrated in the initial year of field deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

PV Lifetime Project - 2025 NLR Annual Report

DOE's PV Lifetime project was initiated in 2016 with the goal of accurately characterizing the early-life evolution of photovoltaic (PV) field performance. Different PV cell and module technologies result in different initial degradation rates due to effects like light-induced degradation (LID) and light and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). To accurately characterize the initial field degradation of maximum power (Pmp) requires the use of high-accuracy indoor IV curve measurements at standard test conditions. Therefore, PV modules involved in this study are removed from the field once or twice per year and brought indoors for measurement under constant temperature and irradiance conditions. Overall annual degradation rates are as follows: our first modules to be deployed (Jinko, Trina, QCells) have annual median degradation rate between -0.4%/yr and -0.5%/yr mainly concentrated in the first year. Mission Solar, LG and Panasonic modules are all displaying modest degradation, better than -0.3% / year. Indeed, Mission Solar fielded modules degraded less than their control modules which remain indoors and un-exposed. This is also true for the LONGi monofacial modules, which had some field degradation, but not as much as the degradation of the indoor control modules. The LONGi bifacial modules on the other hand have degraded more in the field than their monofacial counterparts, although still a modest amount (-0.4 %/yr). Of the four newest module types in the study, only one has had better than average degradation. REC360NP2 (N-type TOPCon) had a slight performance increase over the first year and a half of field deployment. For the other three new module types (plus one older module type), degradation was more rapid. In our study of 16 module types, four have demonstrated degradation faster than -1%/yr: two N-type Heterojunction, one PERC bifacial and one PERC shingled module. The two heterojunction modules in our study are degrading the most rapidly. Sunpreme n-HIT bifacial modules are showing a loss rate around -1.5%/yr, for over -10% total to date. This is largely attributed to loss in front-side Isc. This is distinct from the REC 405AA-Pure modules which have degraded -6.8% in only a year and a half, for an annualized decline of -3.9 %/yr. For this module type, the decline is roughly half in Voc, with the remaining split between FF and Isc. Of the remaining two module types, Prism Solar PERC bifacial has declined -5% total since 2019, although this loss appears to have stabilized in the most recent measurement. The Solaria PowerX-400R Shingled module type has also lost around -3.2% in the first 1.5 years of field deployment. It remains to be seen if these losses will continue with time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

PV Lifetime Project (2024 NREL Annual Report)

DOE’s PV Lifetime project was initiated in 2016 with the goal of accurately characterizing the early-life evolution of photovoltaic (PV) field performance. Different PV cell and module technologies result in different initial degradation rates due to effects like light-induced degradation (LID) and light & elevated temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). To accurately characterize the initial field degradation of maximum power (Pmp) requires the use of high-accuracy indoor IV curve measurements at standard test conditions. Therefore, PV modules involved in this study are removed from the field once or twice per year and brought indoors for measurement under constant temperature and irradiance conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards 50 Year Lifetime PV Modules: Double Glass vs. Glass/Backsheet

This award aims to increase the lifetime of c-Si modules by lowering the power degradation rate to the goal of 0.2 %/year, while also increasing the harvested irradiance per module using bifacial cells to achieve the 2030 SunShot goal of $0.03/kWh. Increasing the durability and lifetime of modules requires improved module packaging material choices and module architectures to exploit new cell improvements. Bifacial PERC cells (with backside aluminum fingers) are becoming a primary PV technology due to their decreased rear surface recombination and increased light absorption compared to traditional monofacial Al-BSF cells. Bifacial modules with double glass architectures have been deployed to capture the rear-side irradiance thereby increasing the light captured. The choice of a double glass (DG) or glass/backsheet (GB) module leads to two very different chemical (e.g., O 2 , H 2 O) and mechanical environments (e.g., mechanical stress levels) inside the PV module that impact the cell’s operational conditions. The recipient will fabricate 4-cell DG and GB minimodules with various module architectures or constructions (mono- & bifacial cells, transparent & white encapsulants), and conduct stepwise accelerated exposures and characterization.

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DOE OSTI2021

Preliminary Environmental and Financial Viability Analysis of Circular Economy Scenarios for Satisfying PV System Service Lifetime

PV deployment has grown rapidly in recent decades, and this growth is expected to continue. At the same time, the rapid increase in PV panel efficiencies offers the opportunity to repower/revamp existing installations - replacing operational, lower-efficiency panels before the end of their 30-year service lifetime with newer, higher-efficiency panels. As a result, an increasing volume of PV panels could be decommissioned well before reaching the end of their 30-year service lifetime. Two broad strategies can be applied to manage the expected increase in decommissioned PV panels: (i) recycle prematurely decommissioned panels, and (ii) prevent recycling of these panels by satisfying the typical service lifetime of 30 years through circular economy strategies such as repair and reuse. Each strategy presents an environmental and economic trade-off. Retaining and satisfying the lifetime of the older, lower-efficiency panels avoids environmental burdens from recycling or landfilling but incurs burdens from additional repair and forgoing the opportunity to install newer panels with greater electricity-generation capabilities. This study assesses whether satisfying the expected service lifetime of a PV system through circular economy scenarios generates a greater environmental and financial benefit than recycling used panels and installing newer panels with higher efficiencies. The circular economy scenarios include repair and reuse of the PV system. Specifically, the study determines whether it is better for the environment to keep a PV panel in use for its 30-year service life after accounting for potential repair and additional transportation, or to replace older panels with more efficient new ones. In addition, we explore whether satisfying the service lifetime of PV panels proves competitive with the recycling route from a financial perspective.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

PV Module Operating Temperature - Data and Resources

The Photovoltaic Systems Evaluation Laboratory (PSEL) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, NM has an extensive test site where PV modules and other system components are deployed and monitored for testing and evaluation. For this dataset PV Performance Labs has assembled one year of measurements from the Systems Long-Term Evaluation (SLTE) project (formerly known as PV Lifetime) providing the main variables needed to investigate and validate PV module operating temperature models: irradiance, ambient temperature, wind speed and back-of-module temperature. For use with more advanced thermal modeling, an estimate of down-welling long-wave radiation is also included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaics module reliability for the terawatt age

Photovoltaics (PV), or solar electricity generation, has become the cheapest form of energy in many locations worldwide and, combined with energy storage, has the potential to satisfy most of our electricity needs. PV has grown at an annual compounded growth rate of approximately 30% in the last three decades. Solar energy systems will continue their impressive growth in distributed energy, microgrids, and utility scale, as efforts are made for dependable electricity in an age with increasing extreme weather. However, within this remarkable success lies a new challenge. The growth curve, combined with rapid product innovation and scale up, means that the majority of PV systems are new, without the three years of performance data that have been required in the past to estimate product lifetime. PV reliability has to address this challenge. In this review we present a brief summary of PV reliability starting with brief historical synopsis, detailing some of the technological challenges and present a framework required for long lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

PV module spectral response measurements - Data and Resources

"This dataset includes spectral response curves for 12 commercial silicon module types that are deployed at SNL in Albuquerque. The modules chosen for evaluation were originally purchased by SNL for the PV Lifetime project (renamed to Systems Long-Term Evaluation [SLTE]). The majority of those modules are deployed outdoors for long-term evaluation, but several modules of each type were placed in storage for future comparison purposes. One stored module of each type was sent to NREL for the spectral response measurements. NREL used the recently developed Module Quantum Efficiency (QE) test bed. What makes this system unique is that it scans the entire module automatically, taking one or more measurements on each cell. Using the mean of these measurements at each wavelength leads to improvements in spectral mismatch correction and module power measurements but having the individual measurements also makes it possible to identify outlier cells, which could be useful for investigating underperforming modules. All measurements were performed nominally at 25°C"

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

BACKFLIP: Identification of Materials and Changes Upon Aging of Emerging Fluoropolymer-Free and Industry-Benchmark PV Backsheets

Extending lifetimes of photovoltaic (PV) modules and decreasing manufacturing and decommissioning costs are motivating research of novel PV module backsheet materials. Backsheet integrity is critical to the safety and performance of a PV module, however, the polymeric materials are often vulnerable to environmental degradation. The long-term durability of emerging polyolefin (PO) materials is being examined to inform regarding the possible replacement of laminated backsheets containing polyethylene terephthalate (PET) cores and fluoropolymer protective inner/outer layers. This study compares traditional PET-based backsheets with novel, co-extruded, and recyclable PO-based backsheets after being subjected to hygrometric and UV photolytic accelerated weathering. A large set of characterization methods will compare physical, chemical, structural, mechanical, and insulating properties of these backsheets and the resulting mini-module (MiMo) PV performances. The study of chemical composition, glass- and phase-transition temperatures, degree of crystallinity, and crystalline structure are described here.

mini-module↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metal Oxide Varistor (MOV) Lifetime Estimation with Impulse-Based Testing in PV Inverter Systems

Surges caused by lightning strikes could damage electrical components in photovoltaic (PV) systems. Metal oxide varistors (MOVs) are commonly used to protect PV systems from lightning strikes. This paper proposes a holistic impulse-based MOV lifetime estimation framework. The impacts of peak current and fault duration induced by lightning events are considered in the MOV lifetime estimation framework. Moreover, the impact of different parameter combinations on MOV lifetime estimation is analyzed. The effectiveness of the proposed work is validated in a PV inverter test system developed in MATLAB/Simulink.

lifetime estimation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Photovoltaic (PV) System Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Evaluation with Grid Support Function Valuation and Service Lifetime Estimation

Photovoltaic (PV) systems play a critical role in renewable energy resource grid integration, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is commonly used to evaluate PV system feasibility in modern power grids. In this work, a revised PV system LCOE calculation model is derived to quantify the potential of LCOE reduction. Particularly, the grid support functions are valuated to offset the investment and operation costs of PV systems, which thereby reduces the LCOE. Meanwhile, PV system service lifetime is also estimated with the derived PV inverter reliability model, considering the critical components (i.e., semiconductor devices and capacitors). The case studies with field datasets are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the developed LCOE calculation model.

Zhao, Shijia↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermally Conductive Backsheets (TCB) of PV Modules: Positive Impacts on Performance, Lifetime and LCOE

The operating temperatures of photovoltaic (PV) modules can be impacted by the selection of specific packaging materials, e.g., backsheets and encapsulants. This research focuses on the evaluation of operating temperature reduction of one-cell modules by comparing conventional Tedlar/polyester/Tedlar (TPT) backsheet with novel thermally conductive backsheets (TCBs) materials. A large number of one-cell modules with two TCB types (TCB_A and TCB_B) and baseline TPT type were fabricated and installed in three different climatic conditions of the hot-dry desert in Arizona (high and low wind speed locations) and North Carolina (temperate with low wind speed location). In this study, these two TCBs were compared with conventional TPT backsheet in terms of performance, lifetime and levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The field results were analyzed for thermal performance of TCBs compared to TPT at three sites for two and half years. This study concludes that the thermal and electrical performances of the PV modules can be improved by using TCB_A in hot and dry climate sites and TCB_B at temperate climate sites. Therefore, the lifetime of TCB-based modules is expected to be higher than TPT-based modules. Using backsheet-specific power degradation levels and assuming the same cost for both types of backsheets, the LCOE of modules using TCBs is estimated to be lower than that of TPT.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solar Photovaltaics Durability and Resilience - A Win-Win

Solar photovoltaics (PV) will play a crucial role in decarbonizing the electrical grid and limit the effects of detrimental climate change. Long lifetimes of PV installations are a win-win situation, as it not only reduces carbon emissions directly through avoidance of fossil fuel emissions but also indirectly, as it reduces the demand of needed materials and potentially recycling. However, during their decades-long lifetime expectations installations are also more commonly exposed to extreme weather events. Building durable solar system to withstand extreme weather events is essential in the electrification of the economy and will save lives, particularly when they power critical infrastructure such as hospitals. As more PV is installed in regions prone to extreme weather events, high-quality materials, installation and monitoring practices can mitigate risk. Evaluating resilience requires combined computational, analytical, and experimental capabilities that are best leveraged by teams working across multiple disciplines.

durability↗

DOE OSTI2022

Network Models of Active Degradation Mechanisms and Pathways for Service Life Prediction of Indoor and Outdoor PV Modules

ct: PV service lifetime prediction (SLP) enables accurate calculation of levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is crucial to rationalizing PV investment and installation. However, SLP is challeging since PV reliability in the field is affected by many combined factors, including various environmental stresses and module quality. In order to map out the active degradation mechanisms and pathways that best resemble real world conditions, we introduce the framework of a study protocol and use network models fitted to data, to enable analysis and SLP of complex PV systems with multiple active degradation mechanisms. The study protocol is the experimental design, including module variants and different exposure conditions, selection of evaluation methods, time-series data acquisition and training of network models to these data. We present SLP of minimodules in the lab and PV systems in the field. For lab SLP, minimodules with 8 variants based on manufacturer, architecture, and encapsulation were prepared and aged in modified damp heat with or without full spectrum light exposure. Stepwise I-V and Suns-Voc data acquisition tracks changes in electrical properties including Rs,IV, Isc,IV, Vmp,PIV providing insights into power loss of minimodules. Network structural equation modeling (netSEM) was utilized to construct degradation pathway models that identify active degradation mechanisms and predict power loss over time. For field SLP, datastreams of Pmp values and I-V curve datastreams of two types of modules installed in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones for 9 years were acquired. With power loss modes corresponding to uniform current loss (ΔPIsc), recombination (ΔPVoc), series resistance (ΔPRs), and current mismatch (ΔPImis) determined, the performance loss rates (PLR) were determined using PVplr. We show how to establish a study protocol framework to ensure appropriate parametric variations and valid data collection from the variants of your complex systems. Then the data-driven netSEM model fitting provides a comprehensive mapping of multiple active degradation mechanisms, and accurate service life prediction.

network model, degradation, photovoltaic, solar↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bifacial Photovoltaic Modules and Systems: Experience and Results from International Research and Pilot Applications

Within the framework of IEA PVPS, Task 13 aims to provide support to market actors working to improve the operation, the reliability and the quality of PV components and systems. Operational data from PV systems in different climate zones compiled within the project will help provide the basis for estimates of the current situation regarding PV reliability and performance. The general setting of Task 13 provides a common platform to summarize and report on technical aspects affecting the quality, performance, reliability and lifetime of PV systems in a wide variety of environments and applications. By working together across national boundaries we can all take advantage of research and experience from each member country and combine and integrate this knowledge into valuable summaries of best practices and methods for ensuring PV systems perform at their optimum and continue to provide competitive return on investment. Task 13 has so far managed to create the right framework for the calculations of various parameters that can give an indication of the quality of PV components and systems. The framework is now there and can be used by the industry who has expressed appreciation towards the results included in the high-quality reports. The IEA PVPS countries participating in Task 13 are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, and the United States of America.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Designing New Materials for Photovoltaics: Opportunities for Lowering Cost and Increasing Performance through Advanced Material Innovations

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗