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Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting
This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term photovoltaic (PV) forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors, such as satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within long-term performance uncertainty. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 24 years of rainfall data to generate 24 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate probability of exceedance values (e.g., P50, P90, P95…). The results show that the size of the 90% confidence interval (P5–P95) can increase from –0.7% to 10.1% when interannual soiling variability and soiling rate uncertainty is included.
Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting: Preprint
This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term PV forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build P50 forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions, or Pvalues, are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors such as: satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within Pvalues. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 20 years of rainfall data to generate 20 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate Pvalues. The results show that the spread of Pvalues (P1-P99) can increase from 0-13% when interannual soiling variability is included.
Feature review of photovoltaic modeling software utilizing blind performance assessment
While confidence in photovoltaic (PV) modeling software has always been essential, the rapid pace of new PV plant developments makes accuracy and credibility more critical than ever. Independent assessments, particularly through blind modeling comparisons, are therefore necessary to ensure unbiased benchmarking across PV modeling software. Previous studies have been limited by a narrow range of models compared, anonymized results, or system size. This study presents results from the first-ever onymous blind modeling comparison, evaluated using both lab- and utility-scale fixed-tilt, monofacial, south-facing systems at sub-hourly time intervals. Seven commercially used PV software tools were compared: 3E SynaptiQ, PlantPredict, PVsyst, RatedPower, SAM, SolarFarmer, and Solargis Evaluate. Predictions were submitted directly by software representatives, providing unique insights into each software’s implementation and resulting prediction behavior. Notable features, including plane-of-array (POA) transposition model, module temperature model, shading model, and performance model were analyzed and compared. Four summary tables compile these features of the software, serving as a resource to help users understand the methodological differences and select the most suitable software for their applications. The software tools show deviations from mean error in annual yield up to 2.5 % in the lab-scale system, increasing to 6.0 % for the utility-scale system. These differences arise from a combination of user decisions and the inherent behavior of the software, indicating the need for continuous and rigorous validation of modeling methods using these software tools against complex, real-world systems.
Estimating and parameterizing mismatch power loss in bifacial photovoltaic systems
Nonuniform irradiance on the rear side of bifacial photovoltaic (PV) systems can cause additional mismatch loss, which may not be appropriately captured in PV energy production estimates and software. We evaluated several scenarios including horizontal single-axis tracking (HSAT) over natural ground-cover and rooftop-mounted systems over high albedo reflective roofs. We found mismatch losses of up to 1.5% annual loss for very close-mounted (0.15 m) rooftop systems, but losses for HSAT systems and high-ground-clearance rooftop systems were lower (<0.5%). A simplified empirical relationship was found that links the spatial variation of irradiance (specifically, the mean absolute difference of irradiance) to the resulting mismatch loss factor, with an R 2 better than .99. Furthermore, this approximate relationship was experimentally validated on mismatched PV modules, and it provides a basis for rapidly estimating bifacial mismatch loss factors for use in hourly PV performance simulations such as PVSyst or SAM. Additional parameters investigated include (a) climate dependence and module orientation, which were not found to have a strong impact on bifacial mismatch losses and (b) PV module fill factor and bifaciality ratio, which did have a strong linear impact on mismatch losses.
Comparative Analysis of Rear Irradiance Modeling Methods for Bifacial PV Systems on Single-Axis Trackers Under Varying Albedo Conditions
This study compares three rear-side irradiance modeling methods for bifacial PV systems on single-axis trackers: (i) the 2D View Factor (VF) model in PVsyst(R), (ii) the open-source PVFactors VF model, and (iii) the Ray Tracing (RT) technique using bifacial_radiance. Simulations were benchmarked against field measurements from a pilot PV plant with rear-side sensors at the torque tube height. Results show that all models underestimated the non-uniformity of rear irradiance along the module length and overestimated the total rear irradiance incident on the module. However, since bifacial gain represents only a fraction of the system's total energy, the resulting energy yield differences among methods remained within +- 2 % of measured values, which is typical for such simulations. While the overall energy impact is limited, this study characterizes the specific limitations of each modeling approach, supporting further improvements in bifacial PV performance assessment methods.
Understanding Bifacial PV Modeling: Raytracing and View Factor Models
As part of the PV Magazine Webinar 'View-factor vs. ray tracing - which bifacial modelling techniques should you use?,' the second part lead by NREL will explore the different rear-irradiance calculation software, which fall into two categories: view-factor and ray-tracing models. View factor models assume isotropic scattering of reflected rays, allowing for calculation of irradiance by integration. Due-diligence software such as PVSyst or SAM use the view-factor model. Ray-tracing models simulate multipath reflection and absorption of individual rays entering a scene. Raytracing software such as bifacial_radiance, which is the only available open-source toolkit, offers the possibility of reproducing complex scenes, including shading or finite-system edge effects. This can be useful to evaluate specific system geometries, shading and obstructions, areas of different albedo and electrical mismatch, all topics of interest to the prediction of bifacial performance. Model agreement for view factors and bifacial_radiance software is improving and has been shown to be between 2% (absolute) when compared with measured results.