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Results for “Pacific decadal variability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability

Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7–70 years — tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) — describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure and heat content anomalies. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain TPDV, which can originate through oceanic processes, atmospheric processes or as an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) residual. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of these mechanisms, their characteristics and contribution to TPDV. Oceanic processes include off-equatorial Rossby waves, which mediate oceanic adjustment and contribute to variations in equatorial thermocline depth and SST; variations in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulation, which exhibit a large anti-correlation with equatorial Pacific SST at interannual and decadal timescales; and the propagation of salinity-compensated temperature (spiciness) anomalies from the subtropics to the equatorial thermocline. Atmospheric processes include midlatitude internal variability leading to tropical and subtropical wind anomalies, which result in equatorial SST anomalies and feedbacks that enhance persistence; and atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST variability, which induce winds conducive to decadal anomalies of the opposite sign in the Pacific. Although uncertain, the tropical adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant mechanism. Finally, a deeper understanding of the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds is a key priority.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms of Pacific decadal variability in ESMs: the roles of stochastic forcing, feedbacks & external forcing

This project explored how and why climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean—specifically Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV)—change over time, and how well leading Earth System Models (ESMs) capture these changes under different climate scenarios. By analyzing large climate model datasets and running new simulations, the team investigated how ocean and atmosphere processes interact to shape PDV. The study tested a leading scientific hypothesis using both simplified and complex models, helping to uncover the key mechanisms that drive long-term climate swings in the Pacific. This work improves our ability to detect, predict, and understand how human-driven climate change may influence major ocean-climate patterns in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Pacific Tropical Decadal Variability Challenge for Climate Models

Understanding and forecasting Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) strongly rely on climate model simulations. Using a Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) diagnostic approach, we reveal Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models have significant challenges in reproducing the spatial structure and dominant mechanisms of TPDV. Specifically, while the models' ensemble mean pattern of TPDV resembles that of observations, the spread across models is very large and most models show significant differences from observations. In observations, removing the coupling between extratropics and tropics reduces TPDV by ~60%–70%, and removing the tropical thermocline variability makes the central tropical Pacific a key center of action for TPDV and El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. These characteristics are only confirmed in a subset of models. Differences between observations and simulations are outside the range of natural internal TPDV noise and pose important questions regarding our ability to model the impacts of natural internal low-frequency variability superimposed on long-term climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Accelerated Decadal Shift in Winter North American Temperature Patterns Under Pacific‐Atlantic Decadal Variability

Global warming and internal climate variability have changed winter temperature extreme regimes in North America, affecting droughts and wildfires in the western United States. However, how internal climate variability influences North American winter temperature extreme patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the recent winter North American surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits an accelerated decadal alternation between Warm West-Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West-Warm East (CWWE) dipoles because their variations show shorter decadal periods during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989 and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability. While the winter WWCE dipole mainly linked to North Pacific blocking events exhibited a smaller mean amplitude during 1990–2022 than 1950–1989 due to the weakened positive PDO phase during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the winter CWWE showed a larger mean amplitude during 1990–2022 due to the stronger negative PDO phase than during 1950–1989. Our results further suggest that the recent rapid decadal shift of North American winter temperatures is primarily attributed to the PDO variability likely due to anthropogenic warming under the positive AMO.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Budgets for Decadal Variability in Pacific Ocean Heat Content

A slowdown in the rate of surface warming in the early 2000s led to renewed interest in the redistribution of ocean heat content (OHC) and its relationship with internal climate variability. In this work we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 to study the relationship between OHC and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), a major mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. By comparing the relative contributions of surface heat flux and ocean dynamics to changes in OHC for different phases of the IPO, we try to identify the underlying physical processes involved. Our results suggest that during IPO phase transitions, changes of 0–300-m OHC across the northern extratropical Pacific are positively contributed by both surface heat flux and oceanic heat transport. By contrast, oceanic heat transport appears to drive the OHC changes in equatorial Pacific whereas surface heat flux acts as a damping term. During a positive IPO phase, weakened wind-driven circulation acts to increase the OHC in the equatorial Pacific while the enhanced evaporation acts to damp OHC anomalies. In the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region, a dipole anomaly of zonal heat advection amplifies an OHC dipole anomaly that moves eastward, while strong turbulent heat fluxes act to dampen this OHC anomaly. In the northern subtropical Pacific, both the wind-driven evaporation change and the change of zonal heat advection along Kuroshio Extension contribute to the OHC change during phase transition. For the northern subpolar Pacific, both surface heat flux and enhanced meridional advection contribute to the positive OHC anomalies during the positive IPO phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic–Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6

The climate system and its spatio-temporal changes are strongly affected by modes of long-term internal variability, like the Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). As they alternate between warm and cold phases, the interplay between PDV and AMV varies over decadal to multidecadal timescales. Here, we use a causal discovery method to derive fingerprints in the Atlantic–Pacific interactions and to investigate their phase-dependent changes. Dependent on the phases of PDV and AMV, different regimes with characteristic causal fingerprints are identified in reanalyses in a first step. In a second step, a regime-oriented causal model evaluation is performed to evaluate the ability of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in representing the observed changing interactions between PDV, AMV and their extra-tropical teleconnections. The causal graphs obtained from reanalyses detect a direct opposite-sign response from AMV to PDV when analyzing the complete 1900–2014 period and during several defined regimes within that period, for example, when AMV is going through its negative (cold) phase. Reanalyses also demonstrate a same-sign response from PDV to AMV during the cold phase of PDV. Historical CMIP6 simulations exhibit varying skill in simulating the observed causal patterns. Generally, large-ensemble (LE) simulations showed better network similarity when PDV and AMV were out of phase compared to other regimes. Also, the two largest ensembles (in terms of number of members) were found to contain realizations with similar causal fingerprints to observations. For most regimes, these same models showed higher network similarity when compared to each other. This work shows how causal discovery on LEs complements the available diagnostics and statistical metrics of climate variability to provide a powerful tool for climate model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The role of the tropical Atlantic in tropical Pacific climate variability

Abstract Interactions between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can affect tropical Pacific variability and its global impacts at both interannual and decadal timescales. Thus, a deepened understanding of the coupled Atlantic-Pacific interactions is needed. While possible dynamical mechanisms by which the Atlantic can influence the Pacific have been identified, the effectiveness of those mechanisms is difficult to establish using climate model simulations where Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed and Pacific feedbacks cannot be realistically included. As an alternative approach, here we use a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) trained on observations and capable of correctly reproducing the observed statistics, to assess the relative role of the Atlantic-to-Pacific and Pacific-to-Atlantic influences on tropical Pacific variability. Our results indicate that Atlantic internal variability can enhance interannual SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and decadal SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, while Pacific influences on the Atlantic significantly damp tropical Pacific decadal variability. This methodological framework could also be used to assess climate model fidelity in representing tropical basin interactions, helping to reconcile existing differences among models’ results.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific

Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initialized decadal hindcasts conducted with and without historical volcanic forcing. Unexpectedly, the inclusion of volcanic forcing in the prediction system significantly degrades the forecast skill of detrended multiyear-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The ensemble mean hindcasts produce multiyear-to-decadal tropical Pacific SST cooling in response to large tropical volcanic eruptions through thermodynamic and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–like dynamic processes. However, in observations, these eruptions coincided with tropical Pacific warming, which is well predicted by the no-volcano hindcasts and, hence, is likely related to internal climate variability. Improved model representation of volcanic response and its interaction with internal climate variability is required to advance prediction of tropical Pacific decadal variability and associated global impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impacts of Extra-tropical ENSO Precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability

Abstract Off-equatorial wind anomalies on seasonal timescales from both the North and South Pacific, known as “precursors” of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been shown to independently trigger the ENSO feedbacks in the tropics and its teleconnections to the extra-tropics. However, the impacts of ENSO precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) is still not well understood and quantified. We show that the dynamic sequence from extra-tropical ENSO precursors to ENSO (tropics) to extra-tropical ENSO teleconnections is not only important for ENSO, but acts as a primary mechanism to filter (e.g. reddening) the low-frequency variability of the seasonal precursors into the decadal-scale variance of the Pacific basin, accounting for the largest fraction of the TPDV (~65%) and its phase. This process, which contrasts previous theories advocating for a TPDV generated internally in the tropics (e.g. ENSO residuals), is inherently unpredictable and not well reproduced in climate models and raises challenges for understanding and predicting the role of internal TPDV in future climate change scenarios.

Zhao, Yingying↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Decadal climate variability and change affects nearly every aspect of our world, including weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and the economy. Predicting its expression is thus of critical importance on multiple fronts. Power et al. review what is known about tropical Pacific decadal climate variability and change, the degree to which it can be simulated and predicted, and how we might improve our understanding of it. Here, more accurate projections will require longer and more detailed instrumental and paleoclimate records, improved climate models, and better data assimilation methods. —HJS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equatorial Origin of the Observed Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Variability From ENSO Nonlinearity

Quasi-decadal (QD) climate variability is detected in the tropical Pacific based on the recent 70 years of observations. This QD variability is identified in equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the pattern of which resembles the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but extends further meridionally to the northeastern subtropical Pacific. Whereas equatorial upper-ocean heat content and SSTs are in quadrature for ENSO, these two quantities are almost in phase on the QD timescale. Further analysis shows that nonlinear dynamical heating, primarily originating from strong El Niño events, tends to lead QD SSTs by a quarter of its dominant period (approximately 30 months) and shapes the dominant QD periodicity in observations. Here, our results suggest that the observed QD variability largely originates from ENSO nonlinearity and thus is fundamentally different from ENSO's oscillatory nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anthropogenic Aerosols Contribute to the Recent Decline in Precipitation Over the U.S. Southwest

Abstract The winter‐spring precipitation over the Southwestern United States (SWUS) decreased since 1980. It is frequently attributed to Pacific internal decadal variability, but recent studies found anthropogenic aerosols (AA) can also induce a transition to a negative Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) phase. We revisit the attribution of SWUS drying by quantifying the contributions of anthropogenically forced decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Applying a low‐frequency component analysis to observations, Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) all‐forcings and single‐forcing large ensembles, we find up to 42% of the observed precipitation trend to be related to the AA‐induced negative PDV‐like pattern, which is driven by the emission shift from the Western to the Eastern Hemisphere. In CESM2, other radiative forcings counteract the influence of AA, but it remains unclear whether the model correctly simulates this balance. This implies that the near‐future trajectories of these forcings, in particular Asian aerosols, are important for projections of SWUS precipitation.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Role of Tropical Variability in Driving Decadal Shifts in the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decadal Spiciness Variability in the Subtropical-Tropical Pacific in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Tropical Pacific decadal variations impact weather and climate around the world and are also connected to variations in the global warming trend. The mechanisms driving these long-term modulations, particularly the role of subsurface ocean dynamics, are still debated. Here, we investigate the dynamics of spiciness (density-compensated temperature and salinity) anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific, which are hypothesized as a possible driving mechanism of decadal climate variability. Based on the analysis of 100 realizations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we demonstrate a coupling between the subtropics and the equatorial Pacific by propagating spiciness anomalies at decadal time scales. The CESM2-LE simulates spiciness variability along a subduction path from the subtropics to the equator with frequency spectra that show the highest power at low frequencies and a power decay proportional to a −4 slope for frequencies greater than 0.01 cycles per months, corresponding to periods smaller than ∼8.5 years. Signals that originate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) dominate and arrive with a larger magnitude at the equator compared to spiciness anomalies from the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Spiciness anomalies from the SH have shorter propagation times and are strengthened along their pathway as stochastic wind stress curl forcing generates anomalous baroclinic ocean pressure gradients. These pressure gradients generate spiciness anomalies via anomalous advection across climatological spiciness gradients in the SH. We conclude that the observed spiciness variance at decadal time scales is consistent with a forcing by stochastic wind variations that are low-pass filtered by ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Coupled Feedbacks in the Decadal Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Additionally, Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗