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ParaChoice Model

Sandia National Laboratories' (SNL's) Parametric Choice Model (ParaChoice) supports the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) mission. Using early-stage research as input, ParaChoice supports the informed development of technology that will improve affordability of transportation, while encouraging innovation and reducing dependence on petroleum. Analysis with ParaChoice enables exploration of key factors that influence consumer choice, as well as projecting the effects of technology, fuel, and infrastructure development for the vehicle fleet mix. Because of the distinct differences between requirements, needs, and use patterns for light duty vehicles (LDVs) relative to heavy duty vehicles (HDVs), this project separately models the dynamics of each of these segments to accurately characterize the factors that influence technology adoption.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

ParaChoice Model.

Analysis with the ParaChoice model addresses three barriers from the VTO Multi-Year Program Plan: availability of alternative fuels and electric charging station infrastructure, availability of AFVs and electric drive vehicles, and consumer reluctance to purchase new technologies. In this fiscal year, we first examined the relationship between the availability of alternative fuels and station infrastructure. Specifically, we studied how electric vehicle charging infrastructure affects the ability of EVs to compete with vehicles that rely on mature, conventional petroleum-based fuels. Second, we studied how the availability of less costly AFVs promotes their representation in the LDV fleet. Third, we used ParaChoice trade space analyses to help inform which consumers are reluctant to purchase new technologies. Last, we began analysis of impacts of alternative energy technologies on Class 8 trucks to isolate those that may most efficaciously advance HDV efficiency and petroleum use reduction goals.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Hydrogen Analysis with the Sandia ParaChoice Model.

In the coming decades, light-duty vehicle options and their supporting infrastructure must undergo significant transformations to achieve aggressive national targets for reducing petroleum consumption and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. FCEVs, battery and hybrid electric vehicles, and biofuels are among the promising advanced technology options. This project examines the market penetration of FCEVs in a range of market segments, and in different energy, technology, and policy futures. Analyses are conducted in the context of varying hydrogen production and distribution pathways, as well as public infrastructure availability, fuel (gasoline, ethanol, hydrogen) and electricity costs, vehicle costs and fuel economies to better understand under what conditions, and for which market segments, FCEVs can best compete with battery electric and other alternative fuel vehicles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Parametric Vehicle Choice Modeling: ParaChoice

Assess the evolving integration potential of light-duty (LDV) and heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) technologies, fuels, and infrastructure and their contributions to lowering emissions and petroleum consumption. Leverage existing LDV and build HDV ParaChoice capability to conduct parametric analyses that explore the trade-space for key factors that influence consumer choice and technology, fuel and infrastructure development. ParaChoice provides the unique capability to examine tipping points and tradeoffs, and can help quantify the effects of and mitigate uncertainty introduced by data sources and assumptions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗