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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Empirical Quantile Estimation Approach for Chance-Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems

We investigate an empirical quantile estimation approach to solve chance-constrained nonlinear optimization problems. Our approach is based on the reformulation of the chance constraint as an equivalent quantile constraint to provide stronger signals on the gradient. In this approach, the value of the quantile function is estimated empirically from samples drawn from the random parameters, and the gradient of the quantile function is estimated via a finite-difference approximation on top of the quantile-function-value estimation. We establish a convergence theory of this approach within the framework of an augmented Lagrangian method for solving general nonlinear constrained optimization problems. The foundation of the convergence analysis is a concentration property of the empirical quantile process, and the analysis is divided based on whether or not the quantile function is differentiable. In contrast to the sampling-and-smoothing approach used in the literature, the method developed in this paper does not involve any smoothing function and hence the quantile-function gradient approximation is easier to implement and there are less accuracy-control parameters to tune. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and compare it with a smoothing method for the quantile-gradient estimation. Numerical investigation shows that the two approaches are competitive for certain problem instances.

Applied Probability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Testing T2K’s Bayesian constraints with priors in alternate parameterisations

Bayesian analysis results require a choice of prior distribution. In long-baseline neutrino oscillation physics, the usual parameterisation of the mixing matrix induces a prior that privileges certain neutrino mass and flavour state symmetries. Here we study the effect of privileging alternate symmetries on the results of the T2K experiment. We find that constraints on the level of CP violation (as given by the Jarlskog invariant) are robust under the choices of prior considered in the analysis. On the other hand, the degree of octant preference for the atmospheric angle depends on which symmetry has been privileged.

Bayesian Inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

Theoretical and methodological challenges in hierarchical Bayesian inference for model-form uncertainty

This report describes challenges associated with the hierarchical Bayesian approach to inform model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to a mathematical models’ governing equations to express uncertainty in form of the equations. To inform model-form uncertainties, hierarchical Bayesian inference is often employed. Here, the MFU parameters are distributed parametrically, and the hyperparameters of the parametric distribution are informed through Bayesian inference, with the aim of determining the MFU parameter distribution that best agrees with calibration data. In practice, however, we have found the hierarchical Bayesian approach falls short of this aim. We discuss theoretical and methodological challenges of the approach, and we present several numerical demonstrations of these challenges. To conclude, we suggest promising alternative approaches for future investigation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discriminative versus generative approaches to simulation-based inference

Most of the fundamental, emergent, and phenomenological parameters of particle and nuclear physics are determined through parametric template fits. Simulations are used to populate histograms which are then matched to data. This approach is inherently lossy, since histograms are binned and low-dimensional. Deep learning has enabled unbinned and high-dimensional parameter estimation through neural likelihood(-ratio) estimation. We compare two approaches for neural simulation-based inference (NSBI): one based on discriminative learning (classification) and one based on generative modeling. These two approaches are directly evaluated on the same datasets, with a similar level of hyperparameter optimization in both cases. In addition to a Gaussian dataset, we study NSBI using a Higgs boson dataset from the FAIR Universe Challenge. We find that both the direct likelihood and likelihood ratio estimation are able to effectively extract parameters with reasonable uncertainties. For the numerical examples and within the set of hyperparameters studied, we found that the likelihood ratio method is more accurate and/or precise. Both methods have a significant spread from the network training and would require ensembling or other mitigation strategies in practice.

high energy physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Nonparametric Method for the Inference of Halo Occupation Distributions

The galaxy–halo connection traces processes by which galaxies form and evolve. The halo occupation distribution (HOD) describes the relationship between galaxies and their host dark matter haloes. Measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function (2PCF) allow us to extract information about the HODs of observed galaxy samples. Several parametric HOD models have been proposed in the literature, but the choice of parameterization restricts the space of possible HODs. To resolve this issue, we introduce a nonparametric HOD fitting method in which we train an emulator to learn the mappings among the galaxy 2PCF, physical properties used to select galaxy samples, and the HOD, all obtained from simulated past light cones constructed with the Santa Cruz semianalytic model. Implementing this emulator within a likelihood analysis framework, we derive constraints on the HOD of a galaxy sample when provided with a measurement of its 2PCF. Using the emulator to accelerate likelihood evaluations, we test the nonparametric HOD approach on a set of 2PCFs for mock galaxy samples drawn from the TNG100-1 simulation and selected above threshold values of stellar mass and star formation rate. Our framework is able to recover TNG100-1 HODs within 0.2 dex. We use the TNG100-1 mocks to tune the reported uncertainties to estimate those expected in the analysis of observations. Comparing to parametric HOD modelling routines applied to the same mock galaxy samples, our approach consistently infers the HOD with comparable or greater precision and accuracy.

Kennedy, Jacob [Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resolving Nonequilibrium Shape Variations among Millions of Gold Nanoparticles

Nanoparticles, exhibiting functionally relevant structural heterogeneity, are at the forefront of cutting-edge research. Now, high-throughput single-particle imaging (SPI) with X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) creates opportunities for recovering the shape distributions of millions of particles that exhibit functionally relevant structural heterogeneity. To realize this potential, three challenges have to be overcome: (1) simultaneous parametrization of structural variability in real and reciprocal spaces; (2) efficiently inferring the latent parameters of each SPI measurement; (3) scaling up comparisons between 10 5 structural models and 10 6 XFEL-SPI measurements. Here, we describe how we overcame these three challenges to resolve the nonequilibrium shape distributions within millions of gold nanoparticles imaged at the European XFEL. These shape distributions allowed us to quantify the degree of asymmetry in these particles, discover a relatively stable “shape envelope” among nanoparticles, discern finite-size effects related to shape-controlling surfactants, and extrapolate nanoparticles’ shapes to their idealized thermodynamic limit. Ultimately, these demonstrations show that XFEL SPI can help transform nanoparticle shape characterization from anecdotally interesting to statistically meaningful.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Varying Dark Energy on Future Large-Scale Structure Studies

The cosmos withholds multiple mysteries such as dark forms of matter and energy that are yet beyond human comprehension. In the standard cosmological model, $\Lambda$CDM, the cosmological constant $\Lambda$ is thought to be responsible for the late accelerated expansion of the Universe. However, recent results from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) suggest the possibility of evolving dark energy, which warrants further exploration. Future surveys such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will map the large-scale structure (LSS) with unprecedented precision, giving us valuable statistical information about the cosmos. The goal of this research is to investigate the potential impact of an evolving dark energy scenario on cosmological parameters constrained by LSS probes, as will be mapped by the LSST. For this, we examine the power spectra of lens galaxies, source galaxies, and cross-power spectra between lens galaxies and source galaxies. The combination of these statistics is commonly referred to as '3 $\times$ 2 points'. For this investigation, we created a set of simulations resembling LSST data and used them to perform cosmological parameter inference in two scenarios: one in which the simulated data is based on the fiducial model and another on evolving dark energy. We then examined the degeneracy between the cosmological parameters and checked for potential shifts in the parametric space when the data contains dynamical dark energy but the modeling assumes $\Lambda$CDM. Our findings indicate that mismodeling the dark energy equation of state can significantly impact parameter inference, particularly affecting the total matter density, $\Omega_m$, and the growth of structures, as represented by the $S_8$ parameter. These results highlight the importance of further exploring extensions of the $\Lambda$CDM model in future LSS studies.

Yaman Acharya, A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraining Hamiltonians from chiral effective field theory with neutron-star data

Multi-messenger observations of neutron stars (NSs) and their mergers have placed strong constraints on the dense-matter equation of state (EOS). The EOS, in turn, depends on microscopic nuclear interactions that are described by nuclear Hamiltonians. These Hamiltonians are commonly derived within chiral effective field theory (EFT). Ideally, multi-messenger observations of NSs could be used to directly inform our understanding of EFT interactions, but such a direct inference necessitates millions of model evaluations. This is computationally prohibitive because each evaluation requires us to calculate the EOS from a Hamiltonian by solving the quantum many-body problem with methods such as auxiliary-field diffusion Monte Carlo (AFDMC), which provides very accurate and precise solutions but at a significant computational cost. Additionally, we need to solve the stellar structure equations for each EOS which further slows down each model evaluation by a few seconds. In this work, we combine emulators for AFDMC calculations of neutron matter, built using parametric matrix models, and for the stellar structure equations, built using multilayer perceptron neural networks, with the PyCBC data-analysis framework to enable a direct inference of coupling constants in an EFT Hamiltonian using multi-messenger observations of NSs. We find that astrophysical data can provide informative constraints on two-nucleon couplings despite the high densities probed in NS interiors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-head physics-informed neural networks for learning functional priors and uncertainty quantification

In numerous applications, the integration of prior knowledge and historical information is essential, particularly for tasks requiring the solution of ordinary or partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) in data-sparse or noisy environments. For instance, achieving accurate solutions to time-dependent PDEs with limited initial condition measurements necessitates an effective strategy for embedding prior knowledge. Hard-parameter sharing architectures in neural networks (NNs) have demonstrated success in both traditional and scientific machine learning domains, facilitating the learning of informative representations. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel, yet efficient, method to enhance physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) by incorporating a multi-head structure that enables the learning of functional priors from both empirical data and governing physical laws. This prior information can then be used to address data sparsity and high-level noise in solving ODE/PDE problems with uncertainty quantification (UQ). The approach, termed Multi-Head PINN (MH-PINN), consists of a shared body NN and multiple head NNs, each corresponding to an individual PINN instance. Our framework for functional prior learning is carried out in two stages: (1) training the MH-PINNs to develop a shared body NN alongside multiple head NNs, and (2) employing these trained head NNs to estimate a prior distribution through a normalizing flow-based density estimator. The learned functional prior can then be applied as a regularization mechanism in deterministic contexts or as an informative prior within a Bayesian inference framework, aiding in the resolution of subsequent ODE/PDE tasks. We evaluate the efficacy of MH-PINNs across five benchmark problems, including a high-dimensional parametric PDE, all characterized by data sparsity or substantial noise levels. Our findings reveal that MH-PINNs deliver accurate solutions and robust UQ, demonstrating adaptability across a range of complex and challenging scenarios.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2024

The hyperplane of early-type galaxies: using stellar population properties to increase the precision and accuracy of the fundamental plane as a distance indicator

ABSTRACT We use deep spectroscopy from the SAMI (Sydney-AAO Multi-object Integral) Galaxy Survey to explore the precision of the fundamental plane (FP) of early-type galaxies as a distance indicator for future single-fibre spectroscopy surveys. We study the optimal trade-off between sample size and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and investigate which additional observables can be used to construct hyperplanes with smaller intrinsic scatter than the FP. We add increasing levels of random noise (parametrized as effective exposure time) to the SAMI spectra to study the effect of increasing measurement uncertainties on the FP- and hyperplane-inferred distances. We find that, using direct-fit methods, the values of the FP and hyperplane best-fitting coefficients depend on the spectral SNR, and reach asymptotic values for a mean $\langle \mathrm{ SNR} \rangle =40\, \mathrm{\mathring{\rm A}}^{-1}$. As additional variables for the FP we consider three stellar-population observables: light-weighted age, stellar mass-to-light ratio, and a novel combination of Lick indices ($I_\mathrm{age}$). For an $\langle \mathrm{ SNR} \rangle =45~\mathrm{\mathring{\rm A}}^{-1}$ (equivalent to 1-h exposure on a 4-m telescope), all three hyperplanes outperform the FP as distance indicators. Being an empirical spectral index, $I_\mathrm{age}$ avoids the model-dependent uncertainties and bias underlying age and mass-to-light ratio measurements, yet yields a 10 per cent reduction of the median distance uncertainty compared to the FP. We also find that, as a by-product, the $I_\mathrm{age}$ hyperplane removes most of the reported environment bias of the FP. After accounting for the different SNR, these conclusions also apply to a 50 times larger sample from SDSS-III (Sloan Digital Sky Survey). However, in this case, only $\mathrm{ age}$ removes the environment bias.

D’Eugenio, Francesco (ORCID:0000000323888172)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gaussian-process generative model for the QCD equation of state

We develop a generative model for the nuclear matter equation of state at zero net baryon density using the Gaussian process regression method. We impose first-principles theoretical constraints from lattice quantum chromodynamics and hadron resonance gas at high- and low-temperature regions, respectively. By allowing the trained Gaussian process regression model to vary freely near the phase transition region, we generate random smooth crossover equations of state with different speeds of sound that do not rely on specific parametrizations. Here, we explore a collection of experimental observable dependencies on the generated equations of state, which paves the groundwork for future Bayesian inference studies to use experimental measurements from relativistic heavy-ion collisions to constrain the nuclear matter equation of state.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Describing hadronization via histories and observables for Monte-Carlo event reweighting

We introduce a novel method for extracting a fragmentation model directly from experimental data without requiring an explicit parametric form, called Histories and Observables for Monte-Carlo Event Reweighting (HOMER), consisting of three steps: the training of a classifier between simulation and data, the inference of single fragmentation weights, and the calculation of the weight for the full hadronization chain. We illustrate the use of HOMER on a simplified hadronization problem, a q\bar{q} q q ‾ string fragmenting into pions, and extract a modified Lund string fragmentation function f(z) f ( z ) . We then demonstrate the use of HOMER on three types of experimental data: (i) binned distributions of high-level observables, (ii) unbinned event-by-event distributions of these observables, and (iii) full particle cloud information. After demonstrating that f(z) f ( z ) can be extracted from data (the inverse of hadronization), we also show that, at least in this limited setup, the fidelity of the extracted f(z) f ( z ) suffers only limited loss when moving from (i) to (ii) to (iii). Public code is available at https://gitlab.com/uchep/mlhad.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Iterative HOMER with uncertainties

We present iHOMER, an iterative version of the HOMER method to extract Lund fragmentation functions from experimental data. Through iterations, we address the information gap between latent and observable phase spaces and systematically remove bias. To quantify uncertainties on the inferred weights, we use a combination of Bayesian neural networks and uncertainty-aware regression. We find that the combination of iterations and uncertainty quantification produces well-calibrated weights that accurately reproduce the data distribution. A parametric closure test shows that the iteratively learned fragmentation function is compatible with the true fragmentation function.

Butter, Anja [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany); Sorbonne↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wilson loops with neural networks

Wilson loops are essential objects in QCD and have been pivotal in scale setting and demonstrating confinement. Various generalizations are crucial for computations needed in effective field theories. In lattice gauge theory, Wilson loop calculations face challenges, including excited-state contamination at short times and the signal-to-noise ratio issue at longer times. To address these problems, we develop a new method by using neural networks to parametrize interpolators for the static quark-antiquark pair. We construct gauge-equivariant layers for the network and train it to find the ground state of the system. The trained network itself is then treated as our new observable for the inference. Our results demonstrate a significant improvement in the signal compared to traditional Wilson loops, performing as well as Coulomb-gauge Wilson-line correlators while maintaining gauge invariance. Additionally, we present an example where the optimized ground state is used to measure the static force directly, as well as another example combining this method with the multilevel algorithm. Finally, we extend the formalism to find excited-state interpolators for static quark-antiquark systems. To our knowledge, this work is the first study of neural networks with a physically motivated loss function for Wilson loops.

Bellscheidt, Verena [Massachusetts Inst. of Techno↗