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Citywide Impacts of E-Commerce: Does Parcel Delivery Travel Outweigh Household Shopping Travel Reductions?

E-commerce has facilitated online ordering of goods by households in recent years. This technological advancement has disrupted shopping related transportation. While the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS [1]) finds that household shopping frequency has declined in the last 10-20 years, deliveries by parcel delivery trucks and vans [2] have increased. However, the net effect of these phenomena on overall trip making, vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) and fuel consumption has not been quantified. From a regional planning perspective, understanding the net effect is important for informing city policies--for example, in regards to land use and transportation planning. The objective of this research is to address this gap. In this study, the net regional impact of e-commerce on transportation and fuel consumption is evaluated. The approach relies on a powerful, agent-based modeling framework (POLARIS [3]) that models decisions made by individual household and commercial agents. E-commerce demand is modeled for each household using a bilevel multinomial probit structure that evaluates e-commerce participation and ordering frequency. Last-mile delivery tours were constructed using GIS-based tools and information from a major parcel delivery company [4]. After integrating the resulting supply and demand models with all other passenger and commercial traffic within POLARIS, a traffic simulation was performed and subsequently VMT and energy consumption were analyzed. The study finds that while e-commerce has generated an increase in parcel truck delivery trips, the net effect of e-commerce is a reduction in VMT and fuel consumption due major reductions in these quantities via shopping trip reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Total Cost of Ownership for Class 8 Tractors and Class 4 Parcel Delivery Trucks

The medium- and heavy-duty transportation sector is experiencing rapid changes in powertrain technology innovation, with recent announcements of battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks being offered. The economics of these alternative powertrain vehicles are uncertain and difficult to compare directly. This analysis seeks to provide a rigorous, techno-economic analysis of all of these alternative powertrain vehicles within the same analytic framework. Specifically, this report evaluates the total cost of ownership (TCO) of six different truck powertrain technologies (diesel, diesel hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, battery electric, and fuel cell electric) for three different truck vocations (Class 8 long haul [750-mile range and 500-mile range], Class 8 short haul [300-mile range], and Class 4 parcel delivery [120-mile range]), for three different time frames (2018, 2025, and Ultimate).

08 HYDROGEN↗

Model Validation and Demonstration of a Hydrogen Fuel Cell Parcel Delivery Truck

With an emphasis on reducing fossil fuel consumption and emissions, major delivery service corporations have begun deploying and operating Class 6 battery electric delivery vans. Fuel cell hybrid delivery vans offer a zero emissions solution with extended range and route planning flexibility. This paper follows a prior publication [1] on the vehicle modeling and design and presents demonstration data and a validation of the prior modeling and design effort. Here, the validation exercise shows that the modeling tools predict performance and energy efficiency within 5% for most of the routes, while the demonstration data shows that in service operation fuel economy was over 14 km/kg of hydrogen gas. In addition, results from a range test showed the vehicle design and onboard hydrogen storage was able to surpass the design target range of 200 km.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Time-Constrained Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem in Urban E-Commerce Delivery

Electric vehicle routing problems can be particularly complex when recharging must be performed mid-route. In some applications, such as e-commerce parcel delivery truck routing, however, mid-route recharging may not be necessary because of constraints on vehicle capacities and the maximum allowed time for delivery. In this study, we develop a mixed-integer optimization model that exactly solves such a time-constrained capacitated vehicle routing problem, especially of interest for e-commerce parcel delivery vehicles. We compare our solution method with an existing metaheuristic and carry out exhaustive case studies considering four U.S. cities—Austin, TX; Bloomington, IL; Chicago, IL; and Detroit, MI—and two vehicle types: conventional vehicles and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In these studies we examine the impact of vehicle capacity, maximum allowed travel time, service time (dwelling time to physically deliver the parcel), and BEV range on system-level performance metrics, including vehicle miles traveled (VMT). We find that the service time followed by the vehicle capacity plays a key role in the performance of our approach. We assume an 80-mi BEV range as a baseline without mid-route recharging. Our results show that the BEV range has a minimal impact on performance metrics because the VMT per vehicle averages around 72 mi. In a case study for shared-economy parcel deliveries, we observe that VMT could be reduced by 38.8% in Austin if service providers were to operate their distribution centers jointly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Market Segmentation Analysis of Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks with a Fuel Cell Emphasis

The medium- and heavy-duty transportation sector is experiencing rapid changes in powertrain technology innovation with recent announcements of battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks being offered. However, the economics of these alternative powertrain vehicles are uncertain and difficult to compare directly. This analysis seeks to bridge the gap of techno-economic analyses for these alternative powertrain vehicles by comparing all of them within the same analytic framework. Specifically, this report evaluates the total cost of ownership (TCO) of six different truck powertrain technologies (diesel, diesel hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, battery electric, and fuel cell electric) for three different truck vocations (Class 8 long haul [750 mile range], Class 8 short haul [300 mile range], and Class 4 parcel delivery), for different Department of Energy technology statuses (2018, 2025, and Ultimate). The TCO framework includes direct costs (purchase price, fuel, operating and maintenance), indirect costs (dwell time costs due to refueling/recharging and payload opportunity costs from forgone revenue due to the truck being weight-limited), but excludes general operation costs (driver wages and benefits, insurance, tire replacements, permits, tolls) that are assumed to be the same across powertrains. The TCO was evaluated for four scenarios that reflect typical business operating conditions. The TCO analysis results highlight that each powertrain technology may have an economic advantage on a TCO basis in certain business operating conditions and depending on fuel price realized. For Class 8 long haul trucks when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric and fuel cell electric powertrains could be cost competitive with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved and fuel prices are low. If payload opportunity costs are incurred, battery electric powertrains are not estimated to reach TCO parity with diesel even if Ultimate targets and low electricity prices are realized, indicating a need for significant vehicle lightweighting. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and compressed natural gas vehicle powertrains have very competitive TCOs with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are incurred, the battery electric vehicle powertrains can achieve TCO parity with diesel only if the Ultimate battery prices are met ($80/kWh). In Class 4 parcel delivery truck operating scenarios where there are no dwell time costs incurred, the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle, and fuel cell electric vehicle could be cost-competitive with diesel and compressed natural gas with current (2018) technology performance and costs. In general, the payload opportunity costs can be a significant driver to TCO for the Class 8 long and short haul commercial vehicle applications while the dwell time costs could be a major TCO cost driver for the Class 4 parcel delivery vehicle if the business scenario realizes those costs.

advanced powertrains↗

Do parcel lockers reduce delivery times? Evidence from the field

Common-carrier parcel lockers have emerged as a secure, automated, self-service means of delivery consolidation in congested urban areas, which are believed to mitigate last-mile delivery challenges through reducing out-of-vehicle delivery times and consequently vehicle dwell times at the curb. However, little research exists to empirically demonstrate the environmental and efficiency gains from this technology. In this study, we designed a nonequivalent groups pre-test/post-test control experiment to estimate the causal effects of a parcel locker on delivery times in a residential building in downtown Seattle, WA. Here, the causal effects are measured in terms of vehicle dwell time and the time delivery couriers spend inside the building, through the difference-in-difference method and using a similar nearby residential building as a control. The results showed a statistically significant decrease in time spent inside the building, and small yet insignificant reduction in delivery vehicle dwell time at the curb. The locker was also well received by the building managers and residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Joint routing of conventional and range-extended electric vehicles in a large metropolitan network

Range-extended electric vehicles combine the higher efficiency and environmental benefits of battery-powered electric motors with the longer mileage and autonomy of conventional internal combustion engines. This combination is particularly advantageous for time-constrained delivery routing in dense urban areas, where battery recharging along routes can be too time-consuming to economically justify the use of all-electric vehicles. However, switching from electric to conventional fossil fuel modes also results in higher costs and emissions and lower efficiency. This paper analyzes this heterogeneous vehicle routing problem and describes two solution methods: an exact branch-price-and-cut algorithm and an iterated tabu search metaheuristic. From a methodological perspective, we find that the exact algorithm consistently obtains tight lower bounds that also serve to certify the metaheuristic solutions as near-optimal. From a policy standpoint, we examine a large-scale real-world case study concerning parcel deliveries in the Chicago metropolitan area and quantify various operational metrics including energy costs and vehicle miles traveled. We find that by deploying roughly 20% of range -extended vehicles with a modest all-electric range of 33 miles, parcel distributors can save energy costs by up to 17% while incurring less than 0.5% increase in vehicle miles traveled. Increasing the range to 60 miles further reduces costs by only 4%, which can alternatively be achieved by decreasing the average service time by 1 minute or increasing driver working time by 1 hour. In conclusion, our study reveals several key areas of improvement on which vehicle manufacturers, distributors, and policy makers can focus their attention.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Pressure-Sensitive Adhesive Combined with Paper Spray Mass Spectrometry for Low-Cost Collection and Analysis of Drug Residues

Illicit drug use causes over half a million deaths worldwide every year. Drugs of abuse are commonly smuggled through customs and border checkpoints and, increasingly, through parcel delivery services. Improved methods for detection of trace drug residues from surfaces are needed. Such methods should be robust, fieldable, sensitive, and capable of detecting a wide range of drugs. In this work, commercially produced paper with a pressure-sensitive adhesive coating was utilized for the collection and analysis of trace drug residues by paper spray mass spectrometry (MS). This modified substrate was used to combine sample collection of drug residues from surfaces with rapid detection using a single paper spray ticket. The all-in-one ticket was used to probe different surfaces commonly encountered in forensic work including clothing, cardboard, glass, concrete, asphalt, and aluminum. A total of 10 drugs (acetyl fentanyl, fentanyl, clonazolam, cocaine, heroin, ketamine, methamphetamine, methylone, U-47700, and XLR-11) were evaluated and found to be detectable in the picogram range using a benchtop mass spectrometer and in the low nanogram range using a portable ion trap MS. Finally, the novel approach demonstrates a simple yet effective sampling strategy, allowing for rapid identification from difficult surfaces via paper spray mass spectrometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

What is the Right Size for a Residential Building Parcel Locker?

Common-carrier parcel lockers present a solution for decreasing delivery times, traffic congestion, and emissions in dense urban areas through consolidation of deliveries. Multi-story residential buildings with large number of residents, and thus a high volume of online package orders, are one of the best venues for installing parcel lockers. But what is the right size for a residential building locker that would suit the residents’ and building managers’ needs? Because of the novelty of parcel lockers, there is no clear guideline for determining the right locker size and configuration for a residential building given the resident population. A small locker would result in packages exceeding capacity and being left in the lobby, increasing the building manager’s workload and confusing and inconveniencing users. On the other hand, a large locker is more expensive, more difficult to install, and unappealing to residents. To answer this question, we installed a common-carrier parcel locker in a residential building in downtown Seattle, WA, U.S.A. Through collecting detailed data on locker usage from the locker provider company, we studied and quantified carriers’ delivery patterns and residents’ online shopping and package pickup behaviors. We then used this information to model the locker delivery and pickup process, and simulated several locker configurations to find the one that best suits the delivery needs of the building. These findings could aid urban planners and building managers in choosing the right size for residential building lockers that meet delivery demand while minimizing costs and contributing to environmental benefits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Zero Emission Delivery Vehicle Demonstration Project (Final Technical Report)

The purpose of the project was to demonstrate thirty (30) fully developed, operational, advanced vehicle technology prototypes for on-road delivery applications within the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Nonattainment Region. After some initial project delays related to difficulties related to financial difficulties from the initial manufacturing partners, the project began to move forward in late 2014 using a fleet-first approach. Ultimately, this project was able to deploy 18 trucks within the Houston region. These vehicles were developed and manufactured by Workhorse and purchased by United Parcel Service (UPS) according to UPS specifications and to be operated out of three different facilities located in the Houston region. Following final delivery of these vehicles during the summer of 2016, the demonstration period began in earnest in December 2016 and continued until the end of November 2018. Once deployed and operating in regular delivery service, the 18 battery electric delivery trucks encountered challenges typical to any new vehicle deployment. In addition to the expected difficulties related to any new vehicle deployments, there were unexpected persistent and ongoing performance issues related to the all-electric technology integrated into the vehicles. This caused significant downtime for many of the project vehicles and lower than anticipated utilization rates over the entire two-year demonstration period.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Technology Integration to Gain Commercial Efficiency for the Urban Goods Delivery System, Meet Future Demand for City Passenger and Delivery Load/Unload Spaces, and Reduce Energy Consumption

This three-year project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office has the potential to radically improve the urban freight system in ways that help both the public and private sectors. Working from 2018-2021, project researchers at the University of Washington’s Urban Freight Lab and collaborators at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have produced key data, tested technologies in complex urban settings, developed a prototype parking availability app, and helped close major knowledge gaps. All the fruits of this project can be harnessed to help cities better understand, support and actively manage truck load/unload operations and their urban freight transport infrastructure. Project learnings and tools can be used to help make goods delivery firms more efficient by reducing miles traveled and the time it takes to complete deliveries, benefitting businesses and residents who rely on the urban freight system for supplies of goods. And, ultimately, these project learnings and tools can be used to make cities more livable by minimizing wasted travel, which, in turn, contributes to reductions in fuel consumption and emissions. Cities today are challenged to effectively and efficiently manage their infrastructure to absorb the impacts of ever-increasing e-commerce-fueled delivery demand. All delivery trucks need to park somewhere to unload and load. Yet today’s delivery drivers have no visibility on available parking until they arrive at a site, which may be full. That means they can wind up cruising for parking, which wastes time and fuel and contributes to congestion. Once drivers do find parking, the faster they can unload at the spot, the faster they free up space for other drivers, helping others avoid circling for parking. This makes the parking space—and thus the greater load/unload network—more productive. To this end, the research team successfully met the project’s three goals, developing and piloting strategies and technologies to: 1. Reduce parking-seeking behavior in the study area by 20%; 2. Reduce parcel truck dwell time (the time a truck spends in a spot to load/unload) in the study area by 30%; 3. Increase curb space, alley space and private loading bay occupancy rates in the study area. The research team met these goals by creating and piloting on Seattle streets OpenPark, a first-of-its-kind real-time and forecasting curb parking app customized for commercial delivery drivers—giving drivers the “missing link” in their commonly used routing tools that tell them how best to get to delivery locations, but not what parking is available to use when they get there. Installing in-ground sensors on commercial vehicle load zones (CVLZs) and passenger load zones (PLZs) in the 10-block study area in Seattle’s downtown neighbourhood of Belltown let researchers glean real-time curb parking data. The research team also met project goals by piloting three parcel lockers in public and private spaces open to any delivery carrier, creating a consolidated delivery hub that lets drivers complete deliveries faster and spend less time parked. Researchers collected and analysed data to produce the first empirical, robust, statistically significant results as to the impact of the lockers, and app, on on-the-ground operations. In addition to collecting and analyzing sensor and other real-time and historical data, researchers rode along with delivery drivers to confirm real-world routing and parking behavior. Researchers also surveyed building managers on their private loading bay operations to understand how to boost usage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A large-scale, agent-based simulation of metropolitan freight movements with passenger and freight market interactions

This study summarizes the first stage in the implementation of an agent-based freight modeling system that has a global representation of agents and detailed modeling of a large-scale transportation network. The model is used to evaluate the transportation and energy impacts of goods movement across urban and national scales. The framework is implemented within POLARIS, a C++-based Planning and Operations Language for Agent-based Regional Integrated Simulation, which consists of an activity-based modeling (ABM) and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) system that has robust features for passenger travel. This platform provides a tool to model interactions among consumers, producers, and the transportation system. The main objective of this initial implementation is to implement a freight model within POLARIS following an agent-based paradigm with behavioral and simulation methods. This paper presents the initial framework and illustrates the application of the model. Building upon earlier works, a parcel location assignment algorithm for business establishments in the population is documented, along with a method for estimating establishment production and consumption volumes. In addition to population generation, other features of the model include push-pull supply chains, multimodal path choice, choice of transportation logistics node, and dynamic traffic assignment. A module with e-commerce supply and demand was also developed to analyze the effects of e-commerce delivery on last-mile energy use and congestion.

agent-based freight↗

Commercial Vehicle Driver Behaviors and Decision Making: Lessons Learned from Urban Ridealongs

As e-commerce and urban deliveries spike, cities grapple with managing urban freight more actively. In order to effectively manage urban deliveries, city planners and policy makers need to better understand driver behaviors and the challenges they experience in performing deliveries. In this study, we collected data on commercial vehicle (CV) driver behaviors by performing ridealongs with various logistics carriers. Ridealongs were performed in Seattle, Washington, covering a range of vehicles (cars, vans, and trucks), goods (parcels, mail, beverages, and printed materials), and customer types (residential, office, large and small retail). Observers collected qualitative observations and quantitative data on trip and dwell times, while also tracking vehicles through GPS devices. The results showed that, on average, urban CVs spent 80 percent of their daily operating time parked. The study also found that, unlike the common belief, drivers (especially those operating heavier vehicles) parked in authorized parking locations, with only less than 5 percent of stops occurring in the travel lane. Dwell times associated with authorized parking locations were significantly longer than those of other parking locations, and mail and heavy goods deliveries generally had longer dwell times. We also identified three main criteria CV drivers used for choosing a parking location: avoiding unsafe maneuvers, minimizing conflicts with other users of the road, and coopetition with other commercial drivers. Here, the results provide estimates for trip times, dwell times, and parking choice types, as well as insights into why those decisions are made and the factors affecting driver choices.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

OPTIMIZATION OF INTRA-CITY FREIGHT MOVEMENT WITH NEW DELIVERY METHODS

The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for modeling intra-city freight delivery tours using innovative modes and alternative last mile delivery scenarios to determine potential energy savings in Columbus, Ohio. This study is part of the Department of Energy (DOE)’s SMART (Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation) Mobility Multi-Modal Freight Pillar. It is a partnership with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, United Parcel Service – Columbus, Ohio, and the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission.

Moore, Amy↗

Microgrid Disaster Resiliency Analysis: Reducing Costs in Continuity of Operations (COOP) Planning

The electric grid serves a vital role in the supply chain of nearly all industrial and commercial organizations. A Microgrid infrastructure can provide this service and beneficial non-emergency services including a variety of generation/energy sources. To demonstrate the applicability of microgrids for energy resiliency, we present a microgrid resiliency case study for United Parcel Service’s (UPS) three separate shipping facilities. The goal, to enhance energy security, minimize cost and prevent cascading losses within other related business units. The impacts and consequences of which are quantified in this study using a Mean Failure Cost (MFC) risk assessment measure. MFC accounts for the potential loses to identified stakeholders that may result from a set of identified failures due to a set of identified threats. In this case, our study uses a method we call All Hazards Econometric System (AHES). AHES incorporates the cost of COOP using a strategy that considers the payback period of microgrid installation as compared to other energy delivery strategies.

Abercrombie, Robert K.↗