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Ensemble variational Fokker-Planck methods for data assimilation

Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process. This work introduces the Variational Fokker-Planck (VFP) framework for data assimilation, a general approach that includes previously known particle flow filters as special cases. The McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process that transforms particles is defined via an optimal drift that depends on the selected diffusion term. It is established that the underlying probability density - sampled by the ensemble of particles - converges to the Bayesian posterior probability density. For a finite number of particles the optimal drift contains a regularization term that nudges particles toward becoming independent random variables. Based on this analysis, we derive computationally-feasible approximate regularization approaches that penalize the mutual information between pairs of particles, and avoid particle collapse. Moreover, the diffusion plays a role akin to a particle rejuvenation approach that aims to alleviate particle collapse. The VFP framework is very flexible. Different assumptions on prior and intermediate probability distributions can be used to implement the optimal drift, and localization and covariance shrinkage can be applied to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. A robust implicit-explicit method is discussed for the efficient integration of stiff McKean- Vlasov-Itˆo processes. Here, the effectiveness of the VFP framework is demonstrated on three progressively more challenging test problems, namely the Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 and the quasi-geostrophic equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Window Cooling Studies and Disk Vibration Testing on a Subset of Mo-100 Disks

Production of metastable Technetium-99 (Tc-99m), a radioactive tracer that emits gamma rays, is vital to the medical imaging community. Tc-99m is extracted from the decay of Molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) which has a half-life of about 2-3 days. The work presented in this report is part of the NNSA’s mission to produce Mo-99 commercially, within the US, without the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) in support of nonproliferation and global security. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is working with NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes (NMR) on their efforts to produce Mo-99 through the irradiation of Mo-100 targets using an electron beam. The NMR target comprises a stack of approximately 60-70 Mo-100 disks with diameter 24 mm and thickness 0.74 mm held in stainless steel laminations, each separated using 0.25 mm thick stainless-steel spacers. The symmetric target stack is housed in an Inconel vessel with two Inconel windows on either side. Two electron accelerators are used to produce 40 MeV, 3.16 µA electron beams each that penetrate the Inconel windows and irradiate the Mo-100 disks. Approximately 90% of the total 250 kW beam power is deposited in the NMR target during the irradiation process, with a smaller percentage adding up to 2.2 kW of heat deposited on the Inconel window. During irradiation, pressurized helium gas flows through thin gaps between the disks cooling the beam window, target disks, disk laminations and spacers. Both NMR and LANL have found during cold testing of the target system (no heat deposition) that the Mo 100 disks undergo significant mass loss and disk breakage due to vibrations induced by the flowing helium gas. The mass loss is not only undesirable due to monetary loss from reduced final quantities of Mo-99, but also due to the hazards associated with radioactive material trapped in the cooling lines and particle filters. The effect of flow rate and target geometry on the flow induced vibrations need to be quantified, and recommendations provided to minimize this mass loss. LANL has previously also tested NMR’s Inconel beam window by heating the window, while flowing pressurized helium, using the average heat deposited on the window. However, the NMR beam is pulsed with a duty cycle of 12.5%, which introduces oscillation in temperature around the nominal 600 °C steady state value with each pulse. Available fatigue curves for Inconel are few, established for room temperature, and they are based on mechanical strain cycles not thermally induced strain as in the NMR target. The effect of pulsed beam heating on the Inconel window therefore needs to be quantified. This report details the experiments conducted to assess the factors that lead to mass loss in the NMR target disks as well as to understand the effect of a pulsed beam on NMR’s Inconel window. This work describes LANL’s experimental characterization of the flow induced vibrations and disk mass loss in a reduced scale set-up containing 5 to 10 Mo-100 disks. We use high speed imaging, displacement measurements and microphone measurements combined with signal processing to estimate the vibration frequency of each disk. The effect of disk thickness, target fit and duration of testing on the mass loss is described. We find that in the current configuration of NMR targets, the vibrations and mass loss on the first disk are minimized, while those in the adjacent disks are highest. The microphone and high-speed image data show that increased flow rates and increased duration of testing increases vibration frequency and mass loss. The mass loss is due to both disk rotation and back and forth motion. There are visible wear marks on the disks with the highest mass loss. We also note that the current NMR window gap reduces flow induced vibrations compared to the previous smaller gaps. Improved target holders significantly reduce disk mass loss to almost negligible quantities. This work finds that the larger window to first disk gap and improved target holder geometry should allow NMR to successfully conduct irradiations with minimal mass loss. The window tests were conducted to understand the effect of a pulsed beam on both the window longevity and to estimate the window temperature and displacement during pulsing. The experiments presented here were performed at significantly low power, due to the limitations of the induction heating system. The window temperature rose to approximately 73 °C with a significantly reduced power of 45 W without beam pulsing. With a 5 Hz pulse rate, 12.5% duty cycle, the window temperature remained constant at 26 °C. These experiments will be repeated with improved coil geometry and reported in upcoming journal papers.

42 ENGINEERING

A filter-dependent granular temperature model from large-scale CFD-DEM data

The computational study of strongly-coupled, gas–solid flows at scales relevant to most environmental and engineering applications requires the use of ‘coarse-grained’ methodologies such as the two-fluid model, particle-in-cell approach or the multiphase Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes equations. While these strategies enable computations at desirable length- and time-scales, they rely heavily on models to capture important flow physics that occur at scales smaller than the mesh. To date, the models that do exist are based on a limited set of flow conditions, such as very dilute particle phase. To this end, we leverage a large-scale repository of CFD-DEM data to develop filter-size dependent models for the mean variance in particle volume fraction, a quantity commonly used to assess the degree of clustering, and the granular temperature, a key quantity for accurately predicting gas–solid flows. In conclusion, because of its filter-size dependence, the granular temperature model can be directly translated to coarse-grained approaches and tied directly to grid size.

AMReX

Measuring the Aerosol Collection Efficiency and Detector Face Deposition of the Bladewerx KatanaGBM™ (Glove Box Monitor) Continuous Air Monitor

To assist Bladewerx LLC (the Requestor) in testing their new CAM (continuous air monitor) sampler model Bladewerx™ KatanaGBM™ (Glove Box Monitor), the Laboratory (LANL, i.e. Los Alamos National Laboratory) measured the aerosol particle collection efficiency and detector face deposition for several experimental test conditions. Bladewerx LLC provided a prototype KatanaGBM with a set of requested tests. According to these parameters, LANL designed and performed a series of experiments to (A.) Measure the aerosol particle collection efficiency and detector face deposition of the KatanaGBM at three air flow rates of 5, 42, and 70 ALPM (ambient liters per minute), (B.) Measure the collection efficiency and detector face deposition using two sizes of oil droplet particles: 3±1 and 10±1 µm (micron) AED (aerodynamic equivalent diameter), and (C.) Test the KatanaGBM for aerosol collection efficiency and detector face deposition with the wind tunnel’s air flow at three different angles 0°, 45° and 90° (compared to the KatanaGBM’s filter face).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY

SCILLA Secondary Aerosol Volume Concentration Airborne Data

This data set contains secondary aerosol volume concentration in cubic micrometers per cubic centimeter (um^3/cm^3). The aerosol was generated in an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) and its volume concentration measured with a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS). Both components were designed and built at the University of California Riverside. Ambient particles were removed with a Teflon filter upstream of the OFR and then pure ammonium sulfate particles were added to create a stable aerosol surface area on which low-volatility oxidation products condense. High concentrations of hydroxyl radical (OH) formed inside the OFR accelerate the oxidative chemistry that would typically occur over a period of several days in the atmosphere, resulting in the production of secondary aerosol from precursor gases present in the ambient air. Concentrations of added ozone and water vapor were controlled to produce the desired and approximately constant level of photochemical aging. The reactor temperature was controlled, while the pressure was not, and was always slightly lower than that of the sampled outside air. Sampled air was pulled from above the Naval Postgraduate School’s (NPS) Twin Otter aircraft through a rear-facing, ¼” OD PFA Teflon tube. The sample stream was split between the OFR and several gas analyzers (NOx, CO, O3, and H2O). Though not contained in these files, data from an aerosol mass spectrometer intermittently operated downstream of the OFR are also available.

{"secondary aerosol concentration",aerosol_concent

Aerosol Microphysics and Chemical Measurements at Mt. Soledad and Scripps Pier during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) from February 2023 to February 2024 UCSD Library Collection

This dataset includes guest instrument measurements and other PI products for aerosol microphysics and chemical measurements collected at Mt. Soledad and Scripps Pier during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) from February 2023 to February 2024. The measurements include the following instruments at Mt. Soledad: High-Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS, Aerodyne), Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (SEMS, Brechtel Manufacturing Inc.), Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS, Droplet Measurements Technologies), Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2, Drople Measurements Technologies), Meteorological Station (WXT520, Vaisala), Ozone (Teco), and trace gas proxies (Teledyne). In addition, the analyses of particle filters collected at Mt. Soledad for three dry-diameter size cuts (<1 micron, <0.5 micron, <0.18 micron) and at Scripps Pier for one dry-diameter size cut (<1 micron) by Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) are reported. A differential mobility analyzer operated as a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS, TSI Inc.), a printed particle optical spectrometer (POPS, Grimm), and a continuous flow diffusion cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, DMT) counter provide the mobility aerosol size distribution (30-360 nm), optical size distribution (150 - 6000 nm), size-resolved CCN distribution (30-360 nm) at 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0% supersaturation. Measurements are reported for both sampling from an isokinetic aerosol inlet and from a Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI, Brechtel Manufacturing Inc.). The data are available at the following link: https://library.ucsd.edu/dc/collection/bb0898306q

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Nano Filters for Selective Metal Capture (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Sunchem investigated novel nanoporous materials and their metal extraction performance in both batch and dynamic continuous flow operations. The proposed project developed novel nanoporous materials for selective metal extraction from complex industrial mixtures. The technical objectives were to synthesize and characterize the nanoporous materials, structure the nanoporous materials with binders along with structuring techniques and evaluate its performance in both a batch and dynamic continuous flow operation. The nanoporous material was structured through a disc granulation method to obtain particles in the size range of 250 to 500 micron diameter. This structured material was packed into a continuous flow column which achieved up to 48 wt% of gold capture. This work aimed to address the key technical risk of the materials’ capability to be employed in an industrial operation with competitive performance compared to other adsorbents.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Alpha-Imaging Detector System Development for Large Area Monitoring

Effective management and disposal of legacy nuclear waste are essential for ensuring safe work environments and minimizing environmental impacts. Monitoring airborne actinide contamination is particularly critical due to the high internal dose potential of alpha-emitting radionuclides. Traditional continuous air monitoring systems (CAMs) used in the industry are limited in the volume of air they can sample, potentially leading to inaccurate radiation detection over large areas. For example, in 2018, elevated levels of airborne Plutonium-239 were detected beyond the controlled areas of the Hanford Plutonium Finishing Plant, highlighting the potential risks to both plant workers and nearby residents. To address these challenges, high-efficiency particulate absorbing (HEPA) air purifiers can enhance air flow by up to 1.5 orders of magnitude, thereby increasing monitoring efficiency and providing a cost-effective solution for large-area surveillance. To quantify the activities of alpha-emitting radionuclides on HEPA filters, the Savannah River National Laboratory is developing an advanced alpha-imaging detection system. This system includes scintillating materials combined with a digital scientific camera. A significant concern in operating such a large-area airborne monitoring system is the handling of HEPA filters, which may be contaminated with radioactive particles. To mitigate these hazards, it is crucial to ensure that any contamination is securely fixed onto the filters. Efforts have been made to optimize the sensitivity of scintillator-epoxy composites and apply them to HEPA filters. These materials were characterized using fluoroscence spectroscopy. These techniques confirmed the purity of the raw materials, the dispersion of scintillators in the epoxy matrix, and the stability of their optical and structural properties post-modification. The optimal scintillator-epoxy composite was selected for use on alpha-spiked HEPA filters to evaluate the efficiency of the sprayer. HEPA filters, embedded with alpha particles collected by an air purifier deployed in an airborne radiation area, have been tested to assess detection efficiency. Future work will focus on employing multiple imaging sensors simultaneously to enhance sensitivity across different regions of the HEPA filter.

Pham, Phuong [Savannah River National Laboratory (

Bioaerosol Emission Characteristics from Laboratory Burns

Combustion processes can aerosolize and transport particles both from nonbiological and biological origin, with the latter termed bioaerosol particle (BAP). Previous work has shown an increase in the level of BAP in smoke plumes. The mechanism of their emission, whether from combustion of biological material or coemission with dust and soil from fire-driven winds, has yet to be examined. Here, we carried out a series of controlled combustion experiments to understand the role of vegetation type and combustion conditions in the direct emission of BAP. The fuels we used included broadleaf, evergreen, and grass. We measured the emitted fluorescent BAP using a wideband integrated bioaerosol system (WIBS), and we measured the viability of filter-collected BAP using flow cytometry. Our measurements showed that the size and absolute concentration of the fluorescent BAP, and the viability of the BAP emitted during combustion, depend on the combustion conditions. In addition, the type of fuel impacted the type of emitted fluorescent BAP fraction relative to the total concentration of the emitted aerosol.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES